Faculty Bibliography

Two randomized controlled trials demonstrated no clinical benefit of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for either post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) or early treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using data from these studies, we calculated time-weighted average change from baseline SARS-CoV-2 viral load and demonstrated that HCQ did not affect viral clearance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW/OBJECTIVE:Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations. RECENT FINDINGS/RESULTS:Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

While detection of SARS-CoV-2 by diagnostic RT-PCR is highly sensitive for viral RNA, the nucleic acid amplification of subgenomic RNAs (sgRNA) that are the product of viral replication may more accurately identify replication. We characterized the diagnostic RT-PCR and sgRNA detection from nasal swabs collected daily by participants in post exposure prophylaxis or treatment studies for SARS-CoV-2. Among 1932 RT-PCR-positive swabs with sgRNA tests, 40% (767) had detectable sgRNA. Above a diagnostic PCR viral load threshold of 5.1 log10 copies/mL, 96% of samples had detectable sgRNA with viral loads that followed a linear trend. The trajectories of diagnostic and sgRNA viral loads differed, with 80% peaking on the same day but duration of sgRNA detection being shorter (8 versus 14 days). With a large sample of daily swabs we provide comparative sgRNA kinetics and a diagnostic PCR threshold that correlates with replicating virus independent of symptoms or duration of illness.

BACKGROUND:In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted. METHODS:In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting. FINDINGS/RESULTS:Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi), $43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa). INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 symptom definitions rarely include symptom severity. We collected daily nasal swabs and symptom diaries from contacts of SARS-CoV-2 cases. Requiring ≥1 moderate or severe symptom reduced sensitivity to predict SARS-CoV-2 shedding from 60.0% (CI: 52.9-66.7%) to 31.5% (CI: 25.7-38.0%), but increased specificity from 77.5% (CI:75.3-79.5%) to 93.8% (CI: 92.7-94.8%).

Health authorities encouraged the use of digital contact tracing mobile applications (apps) during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the level of adoption was low because apps offered few direct benefits to counterbalance risks to personal privacy. Adoption of such apps could improve if they provided benefits to users. NOVID (COVID-19 Radar), a smartphone app, provided users with personalized data on social proximity of COVID-19 cases and exposed contacts. We analyzed uptake of NOVID at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) during the 2020-2021 academic year. Data included anonymous NOVID users who self-identified with Georgia Tech and their first- and second-degree network contacts. NOVID achieved 13%-30% adoption at Georgia Tech. Because of technical challenges, adoption waned after an initial peak. The largest increases in adoption (from 41 to 3704) followed administrative promotion of NOVID. Adoption increased modestly (from 2512 to 2661) after faculty- and student-led promotion, such as distribution of door hangers and a public seminar. Two-thirds of on-campus NOVID users were connected to a large network of other users, enabling them to receive data on social proximity of COVID-19 cases and exposed contacts. Network cohesion was observed to emerge rapidly when adoption rates passed just 10%, consistent with estimates from network theory. The key lesson learned in this case study is that top-down administrative promotion outperforms bottom-up grassroots promotion. Relatively high levels of adoption and network cohesion, despite technical challenges during the Georgia Tech pilot of NOVID, illustrate the promise of digital contact tracing when apps provide privacy and inherently beneficial personalized data to their users, especially in regions where Google Apple Exposure Notification is not available.

Stay-at-home restrictions such as closure of non-essential businesses were effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York City (NYC) in the spring of 2020. Relaxation of these restrictions was desirable for resuming economic and social activities, but could only occur in conjunction with measures to mitigate the expected resurgence of new infections, in particular social distancing and mask-wearing. We projected the impact of individuals' adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing on the duration, frequency, and recurrence of stay-at-home restrictions in NYC. We applied a stochastic discrete time-series model to simulate community transmission and household secondary transmission in NYC. The model was calibrated to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and COVID-attributable deaths over March-July 2020 after accounting for the distribution of age and chronic health conditions in NYC. We projected daily new infections and hospitalizations up to May 31, 2021 under the different levels of adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing after relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions. We assumed that the relaxation of stay-at-home policies would occur in the context of adaptive reopening, where a new hospitalization rate of ≥ 2 per 100,000 residents would trigger reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions while a new hospitalization rate of ≤ 0.8 per 100,000 residents would trigger relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions. Without social distancing and mask-wearing, simulated relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions led to epidemic resurgence and necessary reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions within 42 days. NYC would have stayed fully open for 26% of the time until May 31, 2021, alternating reinstatement and relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions in four cycles. At a low (50%) level of adherence to mask-wearing, NYC would have needed to implement stay-at-home restrictions between 8% and 32% of the time depending on individual adherence to social distancing. At moderate to high levels of adherence to mask-wearing without social distancing, NYC would have needed to implement stay-at-home restrictions. In threshold analyses, avoiding reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions required a minimum of 60% adherence to mask-wearing at 50% adherence to social distancing. With low adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing, reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions in NYC was inevitable. High levels of adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing could have attributed to avoiding recurrent surges without reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions.

BACKGROUND:Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS:We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS:In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION:Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING:US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 43 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Importance:Racial and ethnic diversity among study participants is associated with improved generalizability of clinical trial results and may address inequities in evidence that informs public health strategies. Novel strategies are needed for equitable access and recruitment of diverse clinical trial populations. Objective:To investigate demographic and geographical location data for participants in 2 remote COVID-19 clinical trials with online recruitment and compare with those of a contemporaneous clinic-based COVID-19 study. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cohort study was conducted using data from 3 completed, prospective randomized clinical trials conducted at the same time: 2 remotely conducted studies (the Early Treatment Study and Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 Postexposure Prophylaxis [PEP] Study) and 1 clinic-based study of convalescent plasma (the Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma for the Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 study). Data were collected from March to August 2020 with 1 to 28 days of participant follow-up. All studies had clinical sites in Seattle, Washington; the 2 remote trials also had collaborating sites in New York, New York; Syracuse, New York; Baltimore, Maryland; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Los Angeles, California. Two remote trials with inclusive social media strategies enrolled 929 participants with recent SARS-CoV-2 exposure (Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 PEP Trial) and 231 participants with COVID-19 infection (Early Treatment Study); the clinic-based Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma for the Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 study enrolled 250 participants with recent COVID-19 infection. Data were analyzed from April to August 2021. Interventions:Remote trials used inclusive social media strategies and clinician referral for recruitment and telehealth, courier deliveries, and self-collected nasal swabs for remotely conducted study visits. For the clinic-based study, participants were recruited via clinician referral and attended in-person visits. Main Outcomes and Measures:Google Analytics data were used to measure online participant engagement and recruitment. Participant demographics and geographical location data from remote trials were pooled and compared with those of the clinic-based study. Statistical comparison of demographic data was limited to participants with COVID infections (ie, those in the remotely conducted Early Treatment Study vs those in the clinic-based study) to improve accuracy of comparison given that the Hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 PEP Trial enrolled participants with COVID-19 exposures and thus had different enrollment criteria. Results:A total of 1410 participants were included. Among 1160 participants in remote trials and 250 participants in the clinic-based trial, the mean (range) age of participants was 39 (18-80) years vs 50 (19-79) years and 676 individuals (58.3%) vs 131 individuals (52.4%) reported female sex. The Early Treatment Study with inclusive social media strategies enrolled 231 participants in 41 US states with increased rates of racial, ethnic, and geographic diversity compared with participants in the clinic-based study. Among 228 participants in the remotely conducted Early Treatment Study with race data vs participants in the clinic-based study, 39 individuals (17.1%) vs 1 individual (0.4%) identified as Alaska Native or American Indian, 11 individuals (4.8%) vs 22 individuals (8.8%) identified as Asian, 26 individuals (11.4%) vs 4 individuals (1.6%) identified as Black, 3 individuals (1.3%) vs 1 individual identified as Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, 117 individuals (51.3%) vs 214 individuals (85.6%) identified as White, and 32 individuals (14.0%) vs 8 individuals (3.2%) identified as other race (P < .001). Among 230 individuals in the Early Treatment Study vs 236 individuals in the clinic-based trial with ethnicity data, 71 individuals (30.9%) vs 11 individuals (4.7%) identified as Hispanic or Latinx (P<.001). There were 29 individuals in the Early Treatment Study with nonurban residences (ie, rural, small town, or peri-urban; 12.6%) vs 6 of 248 individuals in the clinic-based trial with residence data (2.4%) (P < .001). In remote trial online recruitment, the highest engagement was with advertisements on social media platforms; among 125 147 unique users with age demographics who clicked on online recruitment advertisements, 84 188 individuals (67.3%) engaged via Facebook. Conclusions and Relevance:These findings suggest that remote clinical trials with online advertising may be considered as a strategy to improve diversity among clinical trial participants.