Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Observed long-term outcomes no longer reflect the survival trajectory facing pediatric liver transplant (LT) recipients today. We aimed to use national registry data and parametric models to project 20- and 30-year post-transplant outcomes for recently transplanted pediatric LT recipients. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 13,442 first-time pediatric (age <18) LT recipients using 1987 to 2018 Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data. We validated the proposed method (ie, to project long-term patient and graft survival using parametric survival models and short-term data) in 2 historic cohorts (1987-1996 and 1997-2006) and estimated long-term projections among patients transplanted between 2007 and 2018. Projections were stratified by raft type, recipient age, and indication for transplant. RESULTS:Parsimonious parametric models with Weibull distribution can be applied to post-transplant data and used to project long-term outcomes for pediatric LT recipients beyond observed data. Projected 20-year patient survival for pediatric LT recipients transplanted in 2007 to 2018 was 84.0% (95% confidence interval 81.5-85.8), compared to observed 20-year survival of 72.8% and 63.6% among those transplanted in 1997 to 2006 and 1987 to 1996, respectively. Projected 30-year survival for pediatric LT recipients in 2007 to 2018 was 80.1% (75.2-82.7), compared to projected 30-year survival of 68.6% (66.1-70.9) in the 1997 to 2006 cohort and observed 30-year survival of 57.5% in the 1987 to 1996 cohort. Twenty- and 30-year patient and graft survival varied slightly by recipient age, graft type, and indication for transplant. CONCLUSIONS:Projected long-term outcomes for recently transplanted pediatric LT recipients are excellent, reflective of substantial improvements in medical care, and informative for physician-patient education and decision making in the current era.

BACKGROUND:Early steroid withdrawal (ESW) is associated with acceptable outcomes in kidney transplant (KT) recipients. Recipients with delayed graft function (DGF), however, often have a suboptimal allograft milieu, which may alter the risk/benefit equation for ESW. This may contribute to varying practices across transplant centers. METHODS:Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we studied 110,019 adult deceased-donor KT recipients between 2005 and 2017. We characterized the association of DGF with the use of ESW versus continued steroid maintenance across KT centers, and quantified the association of ESW with acute rejection, graft failure, and mortality using multivariable logistic and Cox regression with DGF-ESW interaction terms. RESULTS:=0.6). CONCLUSIONS:KT centers in the United States use ESW inconsistently in recipients with DGF. Our findings suggest ESW may lead to worse KT outcomes in recipients with DGF.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:The risk of hypertension attributable to living kidney donation remains unknown as does the effect of developing postdonation hypertension on subsequent eGFR. We sought to understand the association between living kidney donation, hypertension, and long-term eGFR by comparing donors with a cohort of healthy nondonors. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:We compared 1295 living kidney donors with median 6 years of follow-up with a weighted cohort of 8233 healthy nondonors. We quantified the risk of self-reported hypertension using a parametric survival model. We examined the association of hypertension with yearly change in eGFR using multilevel linear regression and clustering by participant, with an interaction term for race. RESULTS:=0.01, respectively, after hypertension). CONCLUSIONS:Kidney donors are at higher risk of hypertension than similar healthy nondonors, regardless of race. Donors who developed hypertension had a plateau in the usual postdonation increase of eGFR.

BACKGROUND:Neighborhood poverty has been associated with worse outcomes after live donor kidney transplantation (LDKT), and prior work suggests that women with kidney disease may be more susceptible to the negative influence of poverty than men. As such, our goal was to examine whether poverty differentially affects women in influencing LDKT outcomes. METHODS:Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and US Census, we performed multivariable Cox regression to compare outcomes among 18 955 women and 30 887 men who received a first LDKT in 2005-2014 with follow-up through December 31, 2016. RESULTS:Women living in poor (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.50) and middle-income (aHR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.14-1.40) neighborhoods had higher risk of graft loss than men, but there were no differences in wealthy areas (aHR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.88-1.29). Women living in wealthy (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.87) and middle-income (aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92) neighborhoods incurred a survival advantage over men, but there were no statistically significant differences in mortality in poor areas (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.01). CONCLUSIONS:Given our findings that poverty is more strongly associated with graft loss in women, targeted efforts are needed to specifically address mechanisms driving these disparities in LDKT outcomes.

BACKGROUND:Arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) and grafts (AVG) have been associated with significant cardiac morbidity that often improves after ligation. However, AV access ligation after kidney transplant (KT) is controversial due to concern for potential long-term allograft failure. We investigated US trends in AV access ligation after KT and the association between ligation and allograft failure. METHODS:All adult Medicare patients on pretransplant hemodialysis with a functioning AVF or AVG who underwent first-time KT were studied using the United States Renal Data Systems (January 2011 to December 2013). Post-transplant AV access ligation was determined using current procedural terminology codes. The incidence of post-transplant AV access ligation was described, and characteristics for patients undergoing ligation vs no ligation were compared. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were then used to determine the association of AV access ligation with long-term allograft failure and all-cause mortality after accounting for patient characteristics, donor characteristics, and variation in transplant center practices. RESULTS:), spent longer on dialysis pretransplant (4.2 vs 4.0 years), and were less likely to have renal failure secondary to diabetes compared with other etiologies (25.0% vs 34.9%) (all, P ≤ .03). Patients who underwent ligation were also more likely to have steal syndrome (77.2% vs 4.1%) and AV access infectious or aneurysmal complications (2.7% vs 0.7%) (both, P < .001). After adjusting for donor and recipient characteristics, increasing age (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.01), increasing years on dialysis (aHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.13), zero human leukocyte antigen mismatch (aHR, 1.82; [95% CI, 1.09-3.05), and steal syndrome (aHR, 41.00; 95% CI, 34.56-48.64) were associated with post-transplant AV access ligation. Black race (aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.69-0.98) and congestive heart failure (aHR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82) were negatively associated with ligation. Three-year allograft failure occurred in 4.9% ± 1.3% transplant recipients who underwent access ligation vs 9.5% ± 0.5% transplant recipients with functioning access (log-rank, P = .30), and was not significantly different between groups after risk adjustment (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.47-1.40). There was also no significant association between AV access and all-cause mortality after risk adjustment (aHR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.46-1.54). CONCLUSIONS:Post-transplant AV access ligation is uncommon and generally reserved for patients with steal syndrome. Importantly, ligation is not associated with post-transplant allograft failure, which occurs in less than 10% of patients at 3 years. There also appears to be no reduction in all-cause mortality with AV access ligation. These data suggest that AV access ligation after KT can likely be reserved for access-related complications because the systemic benefits appear to be minimal.

OBJECTIVES:Older adults who undergo kidney transplantation (KT) are living longer with a functioning graft and are at risk for age-related adverse events including fractures. Understanding recipient, transplant, and donor factors and the outcomes associated with fractures may help identify older KT recipients at increased risk. We determined incidence of hip, vertebral, and extremity fractures; assessed factors associated with incident fractures; and estimated associations between fractures and subsequent death-censored graft loss (DCGL) and mortality. DESIGN:This was a prospective cohort study of patients who underwent their first KT between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2014. SETTING:We linked data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to Medicare claims through the US Renal Data System. PARTICIPANTS:The analytic population included 47 815 KT recipients aged 55 years or older. MEASUREMENTS:We assessed the cumulative incidence of and factors associated with post-KT fractures (hip, vertebral, or extremity) using competing risks models. We estimated risk of DCGL and mortality after fracture using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS:The 5-year incidence of post-KT hip, vertebral, and extremity fracture for those aged 65 to 69 years was 2.2%, 1.0%, and 1.7%, respectively. Increasing age was associated with higher hip (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.37 per 5-y increase; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.30-1.45) and vertebral (aHR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.20-1.42) but not extremity (aHR = .97; 95% CI = .91-1.04) fracture risk. DCGL risk was higher after hip (aHR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.12-1.60) and extremity (aHR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.08-1.57) fracture. Mortality risk was higher after hip (aHR = 2.31; 95% CI = 2.11-2.52), vertebral (aHR = 2.80; 95% CI = 2.44-3.21), and extremity (aHR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.64-2.10) fracture. CONCLUSION:Our findings suggest that older KT recipients are at higher risk for hip and vertebral fracture but not extremity fracture; and those with hip, vertebral, or extremity fracture are more likely to experience subsequent graft loss or mortality. These findings underscore that different fracture types may have different underlying etiologies and risks, and they should be approached accordingly. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1680-1688, 2019.