Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Approximately 30% of kidney transplant recipients undergo early steroid withdrawal (ESW) for maintenance immunosuppression. However, there is no consensus on which patients are suitable for ESW, and transplant centers may disagree on how various clinical factors characterize individual recipients' suitability for ESW. METHODS:To examine center-level variation in the association of clinical factors with the choice of ESW, we studied 206 544 kidney transplant recipients from 278 centers in 2002-2017 using SRTR data. We conducted multi-level logistic regressions to characterize the association of clinical factors with the choice of ESW at each transplant center. RESULTS:). When estimated at each center, this odds ratio was significantly lower than the population odds ratio at 48 (17.3%) centers and significantly higher at 28 (10.1%) centers. CONCLUSIONS:We have observed apparent inconsistencies across transplant centers in the practice of tailoring ESW to the recipient's risk profile. Standardized guidelines for ESW tailoring are needed.

Kidney transplant (KT) outcomes for HIV-infected (HIV+) persons are excellent, yet acute rejection (AR) is common and optimal immunosuppressive regimens remain unclear. Early steroid withdrawal (ESW) is associated with AR in other populations, but its utilization and impact are unknown in HIV+ KT. Using SRTR, we identified 1225 HIV+ KT recipients between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017, without AR, graft failure, or mortality during KT admission, and compared those with ESW with those with steroid continuation (SC). We quantified associations between ESW and AR using multivariable logistic regression and interval-censored survival analysis, as well as with graft failure and mortality using Cox regression, adjusting for donor, recipient, and immunologic factors. ESW utilization was 20.4%, with more zero HLA mismatch (8% vs 4%), living donors (26% vs 20%), and lymphodepleting induction (64% vs 46%) compared to the SC group. ESW utilization varied widely across 129 centers, with less use at high- versus moderate-volume centers (6% vs 21%, P < .001). AR was more common with ESW by 1 year (18.4% vs 12.3%; aOR: _1.08 1.61_2.41 , P = .04) and over the study period (aHR: _1.02 1.39_1.90 , P = .03), without difference in death-censored graft failure (aHR _0.60 0.91_1.36 , P = .33) or mortality (aHR: _0.75 1.15_1.77 , P = .45). To reduce AR after HIV+ KT, tailoring of ESW utilization is reasonable.

BACKGROUND:Kidney transplant recipients have higher risk of infectious diseases due to their reliance on immunosuppression. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, some clinicians might have opted for less potent immunosuppressive agents to counterbalance the novel infectious risk. We conducted a nationwide study to characterize immunosuppression use and subsequent clinical outcomes during the first 5 months of COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. METHODS:Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we studied all kidney-only recipients in the United States from January 1, 2017, to March 12, 2020 ("prepandemic" era; n = 64 849) and from March 13, 2020, to July 31, 2020 ("pandemic" era; n = 5035). We compared the use of lymphocyte-depleting agents (versus basiliximab or no induction) and maintenance steroids (versus steroid avoidance/withdrawal) in the pandemic era compared with the prepandemic era. Then, we compared early posttransplant outcomes by immunosuppression regimen during the pandemic era. RESULTS:Recipients in the pandemic era were substantially less likely to receive lymphocyte-depleting induction agents compared with their prepandemic counterparts (aOR = 0.400.530.69); similar trends were found across subgroups of state-level COVID-19 incidence, donor type, and recipient age. However, lymphocyte-depleting induction agents were associated with decreased rejection during admission (aOR = 0.110.230.47) but not with increased mortality in the pandemic era (aHR = 0.130.471.66). On the other hand, the use of maintenance steroids versus early steroid withdrawal remained similar (aOR = 0.711.071.62). CONCLUSIONS:The use of lymphocyte-depleting induction agents has decreased in favor of basiliximab and no induction during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this shift might have resulted in increases in rejection with no clear reductions in posttransplant mortality.

Infections remain a major threat to successful kidney transplantation (KT). To characterize the landscape and impact of post-KT infections in the modern era, we used United States Renal Data System (USRDS) data linked to the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) to study 141 661 Medicare-primary kidney transplant recipients from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2014. Infection diagnoses were ascertained by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes. The cumulative incidence of a post-KT infection was 36.9% at 3 months, 53.7% at 1 year, and 78.0% at 5 years. The most common infections were urinary tract infection (UTI; 46.8%) and pneumonia (28.2%). Five-year mortality for kidney transplant recipients who developed an infection was 24.9% vs 7.9% for those who did not, and 5-year death-censored graft failure (DCGF) was 20.6% vs 10.1% (P < .001). This translated to a 2.22-fold higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: _2.15 2.22_2.29 , P < .001) and 1.92-fold higher DCGF risk (aHR: _1.84 1.91_1.98 , P < .001) for kidney transplant recipients who developed an infection, although the magnitude of this higher risk varied across infection types (for example, 3.11-fold higher mortality risk for sepsis vs 1.62-fold for a UTI). Post-KT infections are common and substantially impact mortality and DCGF, even in the modern era. Kidney transplant recipients at high risk for infections might benefit from enhanced surveillance or follow-up to mitigate these risks.

BACKGROUND:Older (≥65) KT recipients differ from their younger counterparts in their immune response to immunosuppression (IS) and may have a different risk of malignancy after receiving induction. METHODS:We identified 66 700 adult KT recipients treated with anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) (n = 40 443) or interleukin-2 receptor antagonist (IL-2RA) (n = 26 327) induction (1/1/1999-12/31/2014) using USRDS/Medicare data. We estimated the risk of first-diagnosed post-KT malignancy associated with induction (ATG vs. IL-2RA) using Cox proportional hazard models. We then tested whether these risks differed between older and younger recipients (Wald test for interaction). Models incorporated inverse probability of treatment weights to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: = 0.01) between younger (HR = 1.18; 95%CI:1.08-1.29) and older (HR = 1.01; 95%CI:0.93-1.09) recipients. CONCLUSIONS:Compared with IL-2RA induction, ATG was associated with elevated post-KT malignancy risk but only among younger recipients. Transplant centers may need to tailor induction IS for younger recipients to mitigate malignancy risk.

An increasing number of studies claim machine learning (ML) predicts transplant outcomes more accurately. However, these claims were possibly confounded by other factors, namely, supplying new variables to ML models. To better understand the prospects of ML in transplantation, we compared ML to conventional regression in a "common" analytic task: predicting kidney transplant outcomes using national registry data. We studied 133 431 adult deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients between 2005 and 2017. Transplant centers were randomly divided into 70% training set (190 centers/97 787 recipients) and 30% validation set (82 centers/35 644 recipients). Using the training set, we performed regression and ML procedures [gradient boosting (GB) and random forests (RF)] to predict delayed graft function, one-year acute rejection, death-censored graft failure C, all-cause graft failure, and death. Their performances were compared on the validation set using -statistics. In predicting rejection, regression (C = _0.601 0.611_0.621 ) actually outperformed GB (C = _0.581 0.591_0.601 ) and RF (C = _0.569 0.579_0.589 ). For all other outcomes, the C-statistics were nearly identical across methods (delayed graft function, 0.717-0.723; death-censored graft failure, 0.637-0.642; all-cause graft failure, 0.633-0.635; and death, 0.705-0.708). Given its shortcomings in model interpretability and hypothesis testing, ML is advantageous only when it clearly outperforms conventional regression; in the case of transplant outcomes prediction, ML seems more hype than helpful.

Clinical decision-making in kidney transplant (KT) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is understandably a conundrum: both candidates and recipients may face increased acquisition risks and case fatality rates (CFRs). Given our poor understanding of these risks, many centers have paused or reduced KT activity, yet data to inform such decisions are lacking. To quantify the benefit/harm of KT in this context, we conducted a simulation study of immediate-KT vs delay-until-after-pandemic for different patient phenotypes under a variety of potential COVID-19 scenarios. A calculator was implemented (http://www.transplantmodels.com/covid_sim), and machine learning approaches were used to evaluate the important aspects of our modeling. Characteristics of the pandemic (acquisition risk, CFR) and length of delay (length of pandemic, waitlist priority when modeling deceased donor KT) had greatest influence on benefit/harm. In most scenarios of COVID-19 dynamics and patient characteristics, immediate KT provided survival benefit; KT only began showing evidence of harm in scenarios where CFRs were substantially higher for KT recipients (eg, ≥50% fatality) than for waitlist registrants. Our simulations suggest that KT could be beneficial in many centers if local resources allow, and our calculator can help identify patients who would benefit most. Furthermore, as the pandemic evolves, our calculator can update these predictions.

BACKGROUND:Optimizing antithymocyte globulin (ATG) dosage is critical, particularly for high-risk kidney transplant (KT) recipients without cytomegalovirus (CMV) prophylaxis. METHODS:We studied 630 KT recipients with expanded criteria donors or panel reactive antibody ≥50% at Hospital do Rim, Brazil (January 1, 2013 to May 21, 2015) to determine whether a single ATG dose was safe and effective in patients without CMV prophylaxis. Patients received ≥4 doses (1-1.5 mg/kg/per dose) until June 17, 2014, when the induction protocol changed to a single ATG dose (3 mg/kg). We used Cox regression to compare the risk of CMV infection and acute rejection (AR) among KT recipients by ATG dose. RESULTS:Adjusting for clinical and transplant factors, a single ATG dose was associated with a lower risk of CMV infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.93; P = 0.02) and a similar risk of AR (aHR: 1.16; 95% CI, 0.47-2.83; P = 0.8), compared to multiple doses. We found no differences in death-censored graft loss (5.0% versus 4.8%, aHR: 1.06; 95% CI, 0.51-2.23; P = 0.9) or mortality (4.7% versus 3.4%; aHR: 1.42; 95% CI, 0.62-3.24; P = 0.4) at 1-year post-KT by ATG dose. CONCLUSIONS:In our study of high-risk KT recipients without CMV prophylaxis, a single ATG dose decreased the risk of CMV infection without increasing the risk of AR or compromising graft or patient survival.

Importance:Predialysis nephrology care is associated with better survival among patients with end-stage kidney disease. Objective:To examine national trends in racial/ethnic disparities in receipt of predialysis nephrology care at least 1 year before dialysis initiation in the United States from 2005 to 2015. Design, Setting, and Participants:This national registry study assessed US registry data of 1 000 390 adults in the US Renal Data System who initiated maintenance dialysis treatment from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2015, in multiple cross-sectional analyses. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine national trends in racial/ethnic disparities in receipt of predialysis nephrology care with adjustments for potential confounders. Data were analyzed April 17, 2020. Exposure:Race/ethnicity of the patients. Main Outcomes and Measures:Receipt of at least 12 months of predialysis nephrology care as determined by clinician-based documentation on the End Stage Renal Disease Medical Evidence Report Form CMS 2728. Results:Among 1 000 390 adults (57.2% male; 54.6% White, 27.8% Black, 14.0% Hispanic, and 3.6% Asian; mean [SD] age, 62.4 [15.6] years) who initiated maintenance dialysis in the United States from 2005 to 2015, 310 743 (31.1%) received at least 12 months of predialysis nephrology care. In 2005 to 2007, compared with White adults, the adjusted odds ratio for receipt of at least 12 months of predialysis nephrology care was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80-0.84) among Black adults, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.69) among Hispanic adults, and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.80-0.89) among Asian adults; in 2014 to 2015, the adjusted odds ratio was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.74-0.78) among Black adults, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.60-0.63) among Hispanic adults, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86-0.95) among Asian adults. Conclusions and Relevance:In this cross-sectional study of more than 1 million US adults with end-stage kidney disease, racial and ethnic disparities in predialysis nephrology care did not substantially improve from 2005 to 2015. Study findings suggest that national strategies to address racial/ethnic disparities in predialysis nephrology care are needed.