Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Previous community-based studies have demonstrated sex and race-based disparities in the risk of cardiovascular disease. We sought to examine the association of sex and race with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD-) and critical limb ischemia (CLI-) related hospitalizations. METHODS:In 13,451 Black and White ARIC participants without prevalent PAD at baseline (1987-89), we estimated the cumulative incidence of PAD- and CLI-related hospitalization over a median follow-up of 26 years. We quantified hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox models across four sex- and race-groups. PAD and CLI were defined by hospitalization discharge codes. RESULTS:The cumulative incidence of PAD-related hospitalization was higher in males than females in Whites (5.1% vs. 2.7%; p<0.001) but not in Blacks (5.7% vs. 5.0%; p=0.39). The cumulative incidence of CLI-related hospitalization differed significantly by race more than sex, occurring in 3.1% Black males, 3.1% Black females, 1.4% White males, and 0.8% White females (p<0.001). After risk factor adjustment, the risk of incident PAD-related hospitalization was similar for White males vs. White females [HR 1.14, 95%CI 0.90-1.45], and slightly higher for Black males [HR 1.26, 95%CI 0.92-1.72] and Black females [HR 1.39, 95%CI 1.03-1.87] compared to White females. The adjusted risk of incident CLI-related hospitalization was similar for White males vs. White females [HR 1.15, 95%CI 0.75-1.76], and significantly higher for Black males [HR 1.96, 95%CI 1.22-3.16] and Black females [HR 2.06, 95%CI 1.31-3.24] compared to White females. CONCLUSIONS:These data suggest that there are both sex- and race-specific patterns of PAD-related hospitalization that lead to differences in clinical disease risk and presentation.

BACKGROUND:and incorporates age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) to forecast individual risk of kidney failure. Implementing the KFRE in electronic medical records is challenging, however, due to low ACR testing in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to determine, when ACR is missing, whether to impute ACR from protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR) or dipstick protein for use in the four-variable KFRE, or to use the three-variable KFRE, which does not require ACR. METHODS:were categorized on the basis of the availability of ACR testing within the previous 3 years. For patients missing ACR, we extracted urine PCR and dipstick protein results, comparing the discrimination of the three-variable KFRE (age, sex, GFR) with the four-variable KFRE estimated using imputed ACR from PCR and dipstick protein levels. RESULTS:. The proportion with ACR testing was 19% within the previous 3 years. An additional 2% had an available PCR and 36% had a dipstick protein; the remaining 43% had no form of albuminuria testing. The four-variable KFRE had significantly better discrimination than the three-variable KFRE among patients with ACR testing, PCR testing, and urine dipstick protein levels, even with imputed ACR for the latter two groups. Calibration of the four-variable KFRE was acceptable in each group, but the three-variable equation showed systematic bias in the groups that lacked ACR or PCR testing. CONCLUSIONS:Implementation of the KFRE in electronic medical records should incorporate ACR, even if only imputed from PCR or urine dipstick protein levels.

OBJECTIVE:) hospital discharge codes (eg, 440.2) among 8330 Black and White ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) participants (mean age 62.8 [SD 5.6] years) free of PAD at baseline (1996-1998) through 2015. Since lipid traits are biologically correlated to each other, we also conducted principal component analysis to identify underlying components for PAD risk. There were 246 incident PAD cases with a median follow-up of 17 years. After accounting for potential confounders, the following lipid measures were significantly associated with PAD (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment [decrement for HDL-C and Apo-E-HDL]): triglycerides, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.08-1.36); RLP-C, 1.18 (1.08-1.29); LDL-TG, 1.18 (1.05-1.33); HDL-C, 1.39 (1.16-1.67); and Apo-E-HDL, 1.27 (1.07-1.51). The principal component analysis identified 3 components (1: mainly loaded by triglycerides, RLP-C, LDL-TG, and sdLDL-C; 2: by HDL-C and Apo-E-HDL; and 3: by LDL-C and RLP-C). Components 1 and 2 showed independent associations with incident PAD. CONCLUSIONS:Triglyceride-related and HDL-related lipids were independently associated with incident PAD, which has implications on preventive strategies for PAD. However, none of the novel lipid measures outperformed conventional ones. Graphic Abstract: A graphic abstract is available for this article.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:APOL1 high-risk genotypes confer an increased risk for kidney disease, but their clinical significance among older adults remains unclear. We aimed to determine whether APOL1 genotype status (high risk = 2 risk alleles; low risk = 0-1 risk alleles) and self-reported race (Black; White) are associated with number of hospitalizations, incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and mortality among older adults participating in a community-based cohort study. DESIGN:Observational longitudinal cohort study. SETTING:The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. PARTICIPANTS:Community-dwelling older adults (mean age = 75.8 years; range = 66-90 years). RESULTS:, and albuminuria. These associations persisted after additional adjustments for clinical/socioeconomic factors and APOL1 genotype (incident CKD: HR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.06-1.81; ESRD: HR = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.16-8.86). CONCLUSION:Among older Black adults, APOL1 high-risk genotypes were associated with lower kidney function and therefore higher risk of ESRD. Racial disparities in incident kidney disease persisted in older age and were not fully explained by APOL1.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE:Physical activity is associated with lower risk for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension, which have shared risk factor profiles with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, there are conflicting findings regarding the relationship between physical activity and CKD. The objective was to evaluate the association between physical activity and CKD development over long-term follow-up using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. STUDY DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:14,537 participants aged 45 to 64 years. PREDICTORS:Baseline physical activity status was assessed using the modified Baecke Physical Activity Questionnaire at visit 1 (1987-1989) and categorized according to the 2018 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans to group participants as inactive, insufficiently active, active, and highly active. OUTCOMES:at follow-up and≥25% decline in eGFR relative to baseline, CKD-related hospitalization or death, or initiation of kidney replacement therapy. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS:At baseline, 37.8%, 24.2%, 22.7%, and 15.3% of participants were classified as inactive, insufficiently active, active, and highly active, respectively. During a median follow-up of 24 years, 33.2% of participants developed CKD. After adjusting for age, sex, race-center, education, smoking status, diet quality, diabetes, coronary heart disease, hypertension, antihypertensive medication, body mass index, and baseline eGFR, higher categories of physical activity were associated with lower risk for CKD compared with the inactive group (HRs for insufficiently active, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.88-1.02]; active, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.86-1.01]; highly active, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81-0.97]; P for trend = 0.007). LIMITATIONS:Observational design and self-reported physical activity that was based on leisure time activity only. Due to low numbers, participants who were not Black or White were excluded. CONCLUSIONS:Highly active participants had lower risk for developing CKD compared with inactive participants.

AIMS/OBJECTIVE:We aimed to investigate the association between endothelial dysfunction, assessed by brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD), and the incidence of heart failure (HF) in the community-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS/RESULTS:Brachial artery FMD was measured in a nested case-cohort sample including 3496 of 6814 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants without prevalent cardiovascular disease (mean age 61 years, 50% women). Multivariable probability-weighted Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to examine the association between FMD and incident HF. We also investigated the association between FMD and HF with reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction [HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction <45%) vs. HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥45%)]. During follow-up (median 12 years), 149 participants developed incident HF (incidence rate 3.7 events per 1000 person years). There were 56 HFrEF and 69 HFpEF events (incidence rates 1.4 and 1.7 events per 1000 person years, respectively). In multivariable models adjusted for established HF risk factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, heart rate, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, current smoker, and former smoker status), individuals in the highest quartile of FMD (reflecting better endothelial function) had a lower HF risk compared with individuals in the lowest quartile [hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31-0.95]. Lower risk according to higher FMD was particularly evident for HFrEF, but not for HFpEF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.97 vs. 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.26, respectively). Results remained similar after adjustment for baseline natriuretic peptide levels. The addition of FMD to established HF risk factors generally rendered no or only modest improvement in C-statistics [C-statistics for model with established HF risk factors: 0.774, and with the addition of FMD: 0.776 (delta C 0.002, 95% confidence interval -0.002 to 0.006)]. CONCLUSIONS:Endothelial dysfunction was independently associated with HF in this community cohort, suggesting a pathophysiological contribution of endothelial function to the development of HF, in particular HFrEF. However, the value of FMD measurements for HF risk prediction seems limited.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:We aimed at comprehensively evaluate the independent association of diabetes and its duration with incident abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and aortic diameter. METHODS AND RESULTS:We prospectively studied incident AAA according to baseline glycemic status (diabetes, prediabetes, normal glycemia) in 13,116 ARIC participants (1990-1992) and the time-varying exposure of duration post incident diabetes in 11,675 participants (1987-1989) using Cox models. Additionally, we cross-sectionally explored ultrasound-based abdominal aortic diameter by glycemic status and cumulative duration of diabetes in 4710 participants (2011-2013) using linear regression models. Over ~20 years of follow-up, diabetes (vs. normal glycemia) at baseline was independently associated with lower AAA risk (489 cases) (hazard ratio: 0.71 [95%CI 0.51-0.99]), especially after 10 years (hazard ratio: 0.58 [0.38-0.87]). Prediabetes did not demonstrate an independent association. The inverse association was more evident with longer duration of diabetes (p for trend = 0.045), with 30-50% lower risk in eight years after diabetes diagnosis. The cross-sectional analysis demonstrated smaller aortic diameters with longer duration of diabetes (e.g., -0.76 mm [-1.24, -0.28] in diabetes with 8-12 years) compared to non-diabetes, whereas prediabetes consistently showed nominally greater diameter. CONCLUSIONS:Diabetes, especially with longer duration, but not prediabetes, was independently associated with lower risk of AAA and smaller aortic diameter. Our findings suggest that long lasting clinical hyperglycemia plays an important role in the reduced AAA risk, and the reduced aortic diameter may be a structural mechanism behind this paradoxical association.

BACKGROUND:Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS:GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS:The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION:Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures. Methods/UNASSIGNED:Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch. Findings/UNASSIGNED:with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46). Interpretation/UNASSIGNED:The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available. Funding/UNASSIGNED:US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.

BACKGROUND:Although measuring albuminuria is the preferred method for defining and staging chronic kidney disease (CKD), total urine protein or dipstick protein is often measured instead. OBJECTIVE:To develop equations for converting urine protein-creatinine ratio (PCR) and dipstick protein to urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and to test their diagnostic accuracy in CKD screening and staging. DESIGN:Individual participant-based meta-analysis. SETTING:12 research and 21 clinical cohorts. PARTICIPANTS:919 383 adults with same-day measures of ACR and PCR or dipstick protein. MEASUREMENTS:Equations to convert urine PCR and dipstick protein to ACR were developed and tested for purposes of CKD screening (ACR ≥30 mg/g) and staging (stage A2: ACR of 30 to 299 mg/g; stage A3: ACR ≥300 mg/g). RESULTS:Median ACR was 14 mg/g (25th to 75th percentile of cohorts, 5 to 25 mg/g). The association between PCR and ACR was inconsistent for PCR values less than 50 mg/g. For higher PCR values, the PCR conversion equations demonstrated moderate sensitivity (91%, 75%, and 87%) and specificity (87%, 89%, and 98%) for screening (ACR >30 mg/g) and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively. Urine dipstick categories of trace or greater, trace to +, and ++ for screening for ACR values greater than 30 mg/g and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively, had moderate sensitivity (62%, 36%, and 78%) and high specificity (88%, 88%, and 98%). For individual risk prediction, the estimated 2-year 4-variable kidney failure risk equation using predicted ACR from PCR had discrimination similar to that of using observed ACR. LIMITATION:Diverse methods of ACR and PCR quantification were used; measurements were not always performed in the same urine sample. CONCLUSION:Urine ACR is the preferred measure of albuminuria; however, if ACR is not available, predicted ACR from PCR or urine dipstick protein may help in CKD screening, staging, and prognosis. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE:National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Kidney Foundation.