Faculty Bibliography

INTRODUCTION:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. METHODS:We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics. RESULTS:Maintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19-146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients. DISCUSSION:While there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

BACKGROUND:Community-based delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV, including ART initiation, clinical and laboratory monitoring, and refills, could reduce barriers to treatment and improve viral suppression, reducing the gap in access to care for individuals who have detectable HIV viral load, including men who are less likely than women to be virally suppressed. We aimed to test the effect of community-based ART delivery on viral suppression among people living with HIV not on ART. METHODS:We did a household-randomised, unblinded trial (DO ART) of delivery of ART in the community compared with the clinic in rural and peri-urban settings in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa and the Sheema District, Uganda. After community-based HIV testing, people living with HIV were randomly assigned (1:1:1) with mobile phone software to community-based ART initiation with quarterly monitoring and ART refills through mobile vans; ART initiation at the clinic followed by mobile van monitoring and refills (hybrid approach); or standard clinic ART initiation and refills. The primary outcome was HIV viral suppression at 12 months. If the difference in viral suppression was not superior between study groups, an a-priori test for non-inferiority was done to test for a relative risk (RR) of more than 0·95. The cost per person virally suppressed was a co-primary outcome of the study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02929992. FINDINGS/RESULTS:=0·026), compared with clinic-based ART (54%). Viral suppression was similar for men (n=156 [73%]) and women (n=150 [75%]) in the community-based ART group. With efficient scale-up, community-based ART could cost US$275-452 per person reaching viral suppression. Community-based ART was considered safe, with few adverse events. INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:In high and medium HIV prevalence settings in South Africa and Uganda, community-based delivery of ART significantly increased viral suppression compared with clinic-based ART, particularly among men, eliminating disparities in viral suppression by gender. Community-based ART should be implemented and evaluated in different contexts for people with detectable viral load. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the University of Washington and Fred Hutch Center for AIDS Research; the Wellcome Trust; the University of Washington Royalty Research Fund; and the University of Washington King K Holmes Endowed Professorship in STDs and AIDS.

BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS:In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. FINDINGS/RESULTS:A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39-1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023-420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:Primary Objective • To test the efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) (400 mg orally daily for 3 days then 200 mg orally daily for an additional 11 days, to complete 14 days) to prevent incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to ascorbic acid among contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection Secondary objectives • To determine the safety and tolerability of HCQ as SARS-CoV-2 Post-exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) in adults • To test the efficacy of HCQ (400 mg orally daily for 3 days then 200 mg orally daily for an additional 11 days, to complete 14 days) to prevent incident SARS-CoV-2 infection 2 weeks after completing therapy, compared to ascorbic acid among contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection • To test the efficacy of HCQ to shorten the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding among those with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the HCQ PEP group • To test the efficacy of HCQ to prevent incident COVID-19 TRIAL DESIGN: This is a randomized, multi-center, placebo-equivalent (ascorbic acid) controlled, blinded study of HCQ PEP for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults exposed to the virus. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:This study will enroll up to 2000 asymptomatic adults 18 to 80 years of age (inclusive) at baseline who are close contacts of persons with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 or clinically suspected COVID-19 and a pending SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. This multisite trial will be conducted at seven sites in Seattle (UW), Los Angeles (UCLA), New Orleans (Tulane), Baltimore (UMB), New York City (NYU), Syracuse (SUNY-Upstate), and Boston (BMC). Inclusion criteria Participants are eligible to be included in the study only if all of the following criteria apply: 1.Men or women 18 to 80 years of age inclusive, at the time of signing the informed consent2.Willing and able to provide informed consent3.Had a close contact of a person (index) with known PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or index who is currently being assessed for COVID-19 Close contact is defined as: a.Household contact (i.e., residing with the index case in the 14 days prior to index diagnosis or prolonged exposure within a residence/vehicle/enclosed space without maintaining social distance)b.Medical staff, first responders, or other care persons who cared for the index case without personal protection (mask and gloves)4.Less than 4 days since last exposure (close contact with a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection) to the index case5.Access to device and internet for Telehealth visits6.Not planning to take HCQ in addition to the study medication Exclusion criteria Participants are excluded from the study if any of the following criteria apply: 1.Known hypersensitivity to HCQ or other 4-aminoquinoline compounds2.Currently hospitalized3.Symptomatic with subjective fever, cough, or shortness of breath4.Current medications exclude concomitant use of HCQ5.Concomitant use of other anti-malarial treatment or chemoprophylaxis, including chloroquine, mefloquine, artemether, or lumefantrine.6.History of retinopathy of any etiology7.Psoriasis8.Porphyria9.Known bone marrow disorders with significant neutropenia (polymorphonuclear leukocytes <1500) or thrombocytopenia (<100 K)10.Concomitant use of digoxin, cyclosporin, cimetidine, amiodarone, or tamoxifen11.Known moderate or severe liver disease12.Known long QT syndrome13.Severe renal impairment14.Use of any investigational or non-registered drug or vaccine within 30 days preceding the first dose of the study drugs or planned use during the study period INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Households will be randomized 1:1 (at the level of household), with close contact participants receiving one of the following therapies: •HCQ 400 mg orally daily for 3 days then 200 mg orally daily for an additional 11 days •Placebo-like control (ascorbic acid) 500 mg orally daily for 3 days then 250 mg orally daily for 11 days MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary outcome of the study is the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection through day 14 among participants who are SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline by randomization group. RANDOMISATION/UNASSIGNED:Participants will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to HCQ or ascorbic acid at the level of the household (all eligible participants in 1 household will receive the same intervention). The randomization code and resulting allocation list will be generated and maintained by the Study Statistician. The list will be blocked and stratified by site and contact type (household versus healthcare worker). BLINDING (MASKING)/UNASSIGNED:This is a blinded study. HCQ and ascorbic acid will appear similar, and taste will be partially masked as HCQ can be bitter and ascorbic acid will be sour. The participants will be blinded to their randomization group once assigned. Study team members, apart from the Study Pharmacist and the unblinded statistical staff, will be blinded. Laboratory staff are blinded to the group allocation. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE)/UNASSIGNED:The sample size for the study is N=2 000 participants randomized 1:1 to either HCZ (n=1 000) and ascorbic acid (n=1 000). TRIAL STATUS/UNASSIGNED:Protocol version: 1.2 05 April 2020 Recruitment is ongoing, started March 31 and anticipated end date is September 30, 2020. TRIAL REGISTRATION/BACKGROUND:ClinicalTrials.gov, Protocol Registry Number: NCT04328961 Date of registration: April 1, 2020, retrospectively registered FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Over one hundred implementation studies of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are completed, underway or planned. We synthesized evidence from these studies to inform mathematical modelling of the prevention cascade for oral and long-acting PrEP in the setting of western Kenya, one of the world's most heavily HIV-affected regions. METHODS:We incorporated steps of the PrEP prevention cascade - uptake, adherence, retention and re-engagement after discontinuation - into EMOD-HIV, an open-source transmission model calibrated to the demography and HIV epidemic patterns of western Kenya. Early PrEP implementation research from East Africa was used to parameterize prevention cascades for oral PrEP as currently implemented, delivery innovations for oral PrEP, and future long-acting PrEP. We compared infections averted by PrEP at the population level for different cascade assumptions and sub-populations on PrEP. Analyses were conducted over the 2020 to 2040 time horizon, with additional sensitivity analyses for the time horizon of analysis and the time when long-acting PrEP becomes available. RESULTS:The maximum impact of oral PrEP diminished by over 98% across all prevention cascades, with the exception of long-acting PrEP under optimistic assumptions about uptake and re-engagement after discontinuation. Long-acting PrEP had the highest population-level impact, even after accounting for possible delays in product availability, primarily because its effectiveness does not depend on drug adherence. Retention was the most significant cascade step reducing the potential impact of long-acting PrEP. These results were robust to assumptions about the sub-populations receiving PrEP, but were highly influenced by assumptions about re-initiation of PrEP after discontinuation, about which evidence was sparse. CONCLUSIONS:Implementation challenges along the prevention cascade compound to diminish the population-level impact of oral PrEP. Long-acting PrEP is expected to be less impacted by user uptake and adherence, but it is instead dependent on product availability in the short term and retention in the long term. To maximize the impact of long-acting PrEP, ensuring timely product approval and rollout is critical. Research is needed on strategies to improve retention and patterns of PrEP re-initiation.

BACKGROUND:The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals over the last decade has sparked considerable debate as to whether universal test and treat can end the HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to develop a network transmission model, calibrated to capture age-specific and sex-specific gaps in the scale-up of ART, to estimate the historical and future effect of attaining and surpassing the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets on HIV-1 incidence and mortality, and to assess whether these interventions will be enough to achieve epidemic control (incidence of 1 infection per 1000 person-years) by 2030. METHODS:We used eSwatini (formerly Swaziland) as a case study to develop our model. We used data on HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year from the 2007 Swaziland Demographic Health Survey (SDHS), the 2011 Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey, and the 2016 Swaziland Population Health Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey. We estimated the point prevalence of ART coverage among all HIV-infected individuals by age, sex, and year. Age-specific data on the prevalence of male circumcision from the SDHS and PHIA surveys were used as model inputs for traditional male circumcision and scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). We calibrated our model using publicly available data on demographics; HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year; and ART coverage by age, sex, and year. We modelled the effects of five scenarios (historical scale-up of ART and VMMC [status quo], no ART or VMMC, no ART, age-targeted 90-90-90, and 100% ART initiation) to quantify the contribution of ART scale-up to declines in HIV incidence and mortality in individuals aged 15-49 by 2016, 2030, and 2050. FINDINGS/RESULTS:Between 2010 and 2016, status-quo ART scale-up among adults (aged 15-49 years) in eSwatini (from 34·0% in 2010 to 74·1% in 2016) reduced HIV incidence by 43·57% (95% credible interval 39·71 to 46·36) and HIV mortality by 56·17% (54·06 to 58·92) among individuals aged 15-49 years, with larger reductions in incidence among men and mortality among women. Holding 2016 ART coverage levels by age and sex into the future, by 2030 adult HIV incidence would fall to 1·09 (0·87 to 1·29) per 100 person-years, 1·42 (1·13 to 1·71) per 100 person-years among women and 0·79 (0·63 to 0·94) per 100 person-years among men. Achieving the 90-90-90 targets evenly by age and sex would further reduce incidence beyond status-quo ART, primarily among individuals aged 15-24 years (an additional 17·37% [7·33 to 26·12] reduction between 2016 and 2030), with only modest additional incidence reductions in adults aged 35-49 years (1·99% [-5·09 to 7·74]). Achieving 100% ART initiation among all people living with HIV within an average of 6 months from infection-an upper bound of plausible treatment effect-would reduce adult HIV incidence to 0·73 infections (0·55 to 0·92) per 100 person-years by 2030 and 0·46 (0·33 to 0·59) per 100 person-years by 2050. INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:Scale-up of ART over the last decade has already contributed to substantial reductions in HIV-1 incidence and mortality in eSwatini. Focused ART targeting would further reduce incidence, especially in younger individuals, but even the most aggressive treatment campaigns would be insufficient to end the epidemic in high-burden settings without a renewed focus on expanding preventive measures. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:Global Good Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Heterogeneity of sociodemographics and risk behaviours across the HIV treatment cascade could influence the public health impact of universal ART in sub-Saharan Africa if those not virologically suppressed are more likely to be part of a risk group contributing to onward infections. Sociodemographic and risk heterogeneity across the treatment cascade has not yet been comprehensively described or quantified and we seek to systematically review and synthesize research on this topic among adults in Africa. METHODS:We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature in Embase and MEDLINE databases as well as grey literature sources published in English between 2014 and 2018. We included studies that included people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged ≥15 years, and reported a 90-90-90 outcome: awareness of HIV-positive status, ART use among those diagnosed or viral suppression among those on ART. We summarized measures of association between sociodemographics, within each outcome, and as a composite measure of population-wide viral suppression. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:From 3533 screened titles, we extracted data from 92 studies (50 peer-reviewed, 42 grey sources). Of included studies, 32 reported on awareness, 53 on ART use, 32 on viral suppression and 23 on population-wide viral suppression. The majority of studies were conducted in South Africa, Uganda, and Malawi and reported data for age and gender. When stratified, PLHIV ages 15 to 24 years had lower median achievement of the treatment cascade (60-49-81), as compared to PLHIV ≥25 years (70-63-91). Men also had lower median achievement of the treatment cascade (66-72-85), compared to women (79-76-89). For population-wide viral suppression, women aged ≥45 years had achieved the 73% target, while the lowest medians were among 15- to 24-year-old men (37%) and women (49%). CONCLUSIONS:Considerable heterogeneity exists by age and gender for achieving the HIV 90-90-90 treatment goals. These results may inform delivery of HIV testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, as targeting youth and men could be a strategic way to maximize the population-level impact of ART.

BACKGROUND:Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV and has the potential to significantly impact the HIV epidemic. Given limited resources for HIV prevention, identifying PrEP provision strategies that maximize impact is critical. METHODS:We used a stochastic individual-based network model to evaluate the direct (infections prevented among PrEP users) and indirect (infections prevented among non-PrEP users as a result of PrEP) benefits of PrEP, the person-years of PrEP required to prevent one HIV infection, and the community-level impact of providing PrEP to populations defined by gender and age in western Kenya and South Africa. We examined sensitivity of results to scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) by comparing two scenarios: maintaining current coverage ("status quo") and rapid scale-up to meet programmatic targets ("fast-track"). RESULTS:The community-level impact of PrEP was greatest among women aged 15-24 due to high incidence, while PrEP use among men aged 15-24 yielded the highest proportion of indirect infections prevented in the community. These indirect infections prevented continue to increase over time (western Kenya: 0.4-5.5 (status quo); 0.4-4.9 (fast-track); South Africa: 0.5-1.8 (status quo); 0.5-3.0 (fast-track)) relative to direct infections prevented among PrEP users. The number of person-years of PrEP needed to prevent one HIV infection was lower (59 western Kenya and 69 in South Africa in the status quo scenario; 201 western Kenya and 87 in South Africa in the fast-track scenario) when PrEP was provided only to women compared with only to men over time horizons of up to 5 years, as the indirect benefits of providing PrEP to men accrue in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Providing PrEP to women aged 15-24 prevents the greatest number of HIV infections per person-year of PrEP, but PrEP provision for young men also provides indirect benefits to women and to the community overall. This finding supports existing policies that prioritize PrEP use for young women, while also illuminating the community-level benefits of PrEP availability for men when resources permit.

Objective/UNASSIGNED:To identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilator usage among confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients and estimate the effects of mitigation efforts on ICU capacity in Korea. Patients and Methods/UNASSIGNED:Data on profiles and medical history of all confirmed COVID-19 patients in the past 1 year were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance System's claims database to assess risk factors for ICU admission and ventilator use. We used a time-series epidemic model to estimate the ICU census in Daegu from the reported hospital data. Findings/UNASSIGNED:Multivariate regression analysis revealed male sex, old age, and residing in Daegu city as significant risk factors for ICU admission. The number of patients requiring ICU admission exceeded the bed capacity across all Daegu hospitals before March 9, 2020, and therefore, critically ill patients were transferred to nearby hospitals outside Daegu. This finding was consistent with our prediction that the ICU census in Daegu would peak on March 16, 2020, at 160 through mitigation efforts, without which it would have reached 300 by late March 2020. Conclusion/UNASSIGNED:Older age and male sex were risk factors for ICU admission. In addition, the geographic location of the hospital seems to contribute to the severity of the COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and to the ICU capacity.