Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) encompass histologically benign, dysplastic, and cancerous lesions that are often indistinguishable by appearance and inconsistently managed. We assessed the potential impact of test-and-treat pathways enabled by a point-of-care test for OPMD characterization. MATERIALS AND METHODS/METHODS:We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare life expectancy of test-treat strategies for 60-year-old patients with OPMDs in the primary dental setting, based on a trial for a point-of-care cytopathology tool (POCOCT). Eight strategies of OPMD detection and evaluation were compared, involving deferred evaluation (no further characterization), prompt OPMD characterization using POCOCT measurements, or the commonly recommended usual care strategy of routine referral for scalpel biopsy. POCOCT pathways differed in threshold for additional intervention, including surgery for any dysplasia or malignancy, or for only moderate or severe dysplasia or cancer. Strategies with initial referral for biopsy also reflected varied treatment thresholds in current practice between surgery and surveillance of mild dysplasia. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variation in parameter values on model results. RESULTS:Requisite referral for scalpel biopsy offered the highest life expectancy of 20.92 life-years compared with deferred evaluation (+0.30 life-years), though this outcome was driven by baseline assumptions of limited patient adherence to surveillance using POCOCT. POCOCT characterization and surveillance offered only 0.02 life-years less than the most biopsy-intensive strategy, while resulting in 27% fewer biopsies. When the probability of adherence to surveillance and confirmatory biopsy was ≥ 0.88, or when metastasis rates were lower than reported, POCOCT characterization extended life-years (+0.04 life-years) than prompt specialist referral. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Risk-based OPMD management through point-of-care cytology may offer a reasonable alternative to routine referral for specialist evaluation and scalpel biopsy, with far fewer biopsies. In patients who adhere to surveillance protocols, POCOCT surveillance may extend life expectancy beyond biopsy and follow up visual-tactile inspection.

In integrated health care systems, techniques that identify successes and opportunities for targeted improvement are needed. The authors propose a new method for estimating population health that provides a more accurate and dynamic assessment of performance and priority setting. Member data from a large integrated health system (n = 96,246, 73.8% female, mean age = 44 ± 0.01 years) were used to develop a mechanistic mathematical simulation, representing the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and their associated risk factors. An age- and sex-matched US cohort served as comparator group. The simulation was recalibrated and retested for validity employing the outcome measure of 5-year mortality. The authors sought to estimate potential population health that could be gained by improving health risk factors in the study population. Potential gains were assessed using both average life years (LY) gained and average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The simulation validated well compared to integrated health system data, producing an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.88 for 5-year mortality. Current population health was estimated as a life expectancy of 84.7 years or 69.2 QALYs. Comparing potential health gain in the US cohort to the Kaiser Permanente cohort, eliminating physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, smoking, and uncontrolled diabetes resulted in an increase of 1.5 vs. 1.3 LY, 1.1 vs. 0.8 LY, 0.5 vs. 0.2 LY, and 0.5 vs. 0.5 LY on average per person, respectively. Using mathematical simulations may inform efforts by integrated health systems to target resources most effectively, and may facilitate goal setting.

Background/UNASSIGNED:The prevalence and risk of concurrent unhealthy drinking, cigarette use, and depression on mortality among persons living with HIV (PLWH) is unclear. This study applied a syndemic framework to assess whether these co-occurring conditions increase mortality and whether such risk is differential by HIV status. Methods/UNASSIGNED:We evaluated 6721 participants (49.8% PLWH) without baseline cancer from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a prospective, observational cohort of PLWH and matched uninfected veterans enrolled in 2002 and followed through 2015. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated risk of a syndemic score (number of conditions: that is, unhealthy drinking, cigarette use, and depressive symptoms) on all-cause mortality by HIV status, adjusting for demographic, health status, and HIV-related factors. Results/UNASSIGNED:= .013), after adjusting for health status and HIV disease progression. Among PLWH and uninfected participants, mortality risk persisted after adjustment for time-updated health status. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:Syndemic unhealthy drinking, cigarette use, and depression are common and are associated with higher mortality risk among PLWH, underscoring the need to screen for and treat these conditions.

YouTube is a social media platform with more than 1 billion users and >600000 videos about prostate cancer. Two small studies examined the quality of prostate cancer videos on YouTube, but did not use validated instruments, examine user interactions, or characterize the spread of misinformation. We performed the largest, most comprehensive examination of prostate cancer information on YouTube to date, including the first 150 videos on screening and treatment. We used the validated DISCERN quality criteria for consumer health information and the Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool, and compared results for user engagement. The videos in our sample had up to 1.3 million views (average 45223) and the overall quality of information was moderate. More videos described benefits (75%) than harms (53%), and only 50% promoted shared decision-making as recommended in current guidelines. Only 54% of the videos defined medical terms and few provided summaries or references. There was a significant negative correlation between scientific quality and viewer engagement (views/month p=0.004; thumbs up/views p=0.015). The comments section underneath some videos contained advertising and peer-to-peer medical advice. A total of 115 videos (77%) contained potentially misinformative and/or biased content within the video or comments section, with a total reach of >6 million viewers. PATIENT SUMMARY: Many popular YouTube videos about prostate cancer contained biased or poor-quality information. A greater number of views and thumbs up on YouTube does not mean that the information is trustworthy.

Three quarters of new HIV infections in the US are among men who have sex with men (MSM). In other populations, incarceration is a social determinant of elevations in viral load and HIV-related substance use and sex risk behavior. There has been limited research on incarceration and these HIV transmission risk determinants in HIV-positive MSM. We used the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) 2011-2012 follow-up survey to measure associations between past year and prior (more than one year ago) incarceration and HIV viral load and substance use and sex risk behavior among HIV-positive MSM (N = 532). Approximately 40% had ever been incarcerated, including 9% in the past year. In analyses adjusting for sociodemographic factors, past year and prior incarceration were strongly associated with detectable viral load (HIV-1 RNA >500 copies/mL) (past year adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 3.50 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.59, 7.71; prior AOR: 2.48 95% CI: 1.44, 4.29) and past 12 month injection drug use (AORs > 6), multiple sex partnerships (AORs > 1.8), and condomless sex in the context of substance use (AORs > 3). Past year incarceration also was strongly associated with alcohol and non-injection drug use (AOR > 2.5). Less than one in five HIV-positive MSM recently released from incarceration took advantage of a jail/prison re-entry health care program available to veterans. We need to reach HIV-positive MSM leaving jails and prisons to improve linkage to care and clinical outcomes and reduce transmission risk upon release.

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW ABOUT THIS TOPIC/UNASSIGNED:Rapid response to witnessed, pulseless cardiac arrest is associated with increased survival. WHAT THIS ARTICLE TELLS US THAT IS NEW/UNASSIGNED:Assessment of witnessed, pulseless cardiac arrests occurring at 538 hospitals during a 9-yr period indicates that CPR did not occur immediately at 0 min in 5.7% of patients despite guidelines for instantaneous initiation. Delay in initiation of CPR was associated with significantly decreased survival.Time to initiation of CPR and subsequent time to initiation of administration of defibrillation shock (for shockable arrhythmias) and epinephrine were both associated with reduced patient survival. BACKGROUND:Because the extent to which delays in initiating cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) versus the time from CPR to defibrillation or epinephrine treatment affects survival remains unknown, it was hypothesized that all three independently decrease survival in in-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS:Witnessed, index cases of cardiac arrest from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation Database occurring between 2000 and 2008 in 538 hospitals were included in this analysis. Multivariable risk-adjusted logistic regression examined the association of time to initiation of CPR and time from CPR to either epinephrine treatment or defibrillation with survival to discharge. RESULTS:In the overall cohort of 57,312 patients, there were 9,802 survivors (17.1%). Times to initiation of CPR greater than 2 min were associated with a survival of 14.7% (91 of 618) as compared with 17.1% (9,711 of 56,694) if CPR was begun in 2 min or less (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], 0.68 [0.54 to 0.87]; P < 0.002). Times from CPR to either defibrillation or epinephrine treatment of 2 min or less were associated with a survival of 18.0% (7,654 of 42,475), as compared with 15.0% (1,680 of 11,227) for 3 to 5 min (reference, 0 to 2 min; adjusted odds ratios [95% CI], 0.83 [0.78 to 0.88]; P < 0.001), 12.8% (382 of 2,983) for 6 to 8 min (0.67 [0.60 to 0.76], P < 0.001), and 13.7% (86 of 627) for 9 to 11 min (0.54 [0.42 to 0.69], P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Delays in the initiation of CPR and from CPR to defibrillation or epinephrine treatment were each associated with lower survival.

Purpose To compare the effectiveness of personalized treatment for small (≤4 cm) renal tumors versus routine partial nephrectomy (PN), accounting for various competing causes of mortality. Materials and Methods A state-transition microsimulation model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors by using 1 000 000 simulations in the following ways: routine PN or personalized treatment involving percutaneous ablation for risk factors for worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD), and otherwise PN; biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to PN or ablation depending on risk factors for worsening CKD; active surveillance for growth; and active surveillance when MRI findings are indicative of papillary RCC. Transition probabilities were incorporated from the literature. Effects of parameter variability were assessed in sensitivity analysis. Results In patients of all ages with normal renal function, routine PN yielded the longest life expectancy (eg, 0.67 years in 65-year-old men with nephrometry score [NS] of 4). Otherwise, personalized strategies extended life expectancy versus routine PN: in CKD stages 2 or 3a, moderate or high NS, and no comorbidities, MRI guidance for active surveillance extended life expectancy (eg, 2.60 years for MRI vs PN in CKD 3a, NS 10); and with Charlson comorbidity index of 1 or more, biopsy or active surveillance for growth extended life expectancy (eg, 2.70 years for surveillance for growth in CKD 3a, NS 10). CKD 3b was most effectively managed by using MRI to help predict papillary RCC for surveillance. Conclusion For patients with chronic kidney disease and small renal tumors, personalized treatment selection likely extends life expectancy. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.