Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. METHODS AND FINDINGS/RESULTS:We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data--medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York--were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-9 x lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. CONCLUSIONS:These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.

BACKGROUND: The Early Intervention (EI) Program of the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene provides therapeutic services to children under 3 years of age with developmental delays or disabilities. Although the EI Program targets delivery of services within 21 days of the meeting at which the Individualized Family Service Plan (IFSP) is developed, the designation of a service provider alone often takes longer than that. OBJECTIVE: This study examined associations between individual and neighborhood characteristics and timeliness of provider designation in NYC. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for 14,623 children who had their initial IFSPs developed in Fiscal Year 2004. RESULTS: Provider designation was delayed 13.4% of the time for speech therapy, 10.0% of the time for special instruction, 8.2% of the time for occupational therapy, and 4.2% of the time for physical therapy. Individual characteristics independently associated with provider designation delay were: being older than 24 months, having the IFSP meeting between July and December, having an adaptive delay, and having speech therapy or special instruction in the IFSP. Neighborhood characteristics independently associated with provider designation delay included living in a low-income neighborhood and living in a heavily Spanish-speaking neighborhood. CONCLUSION: Delayed provider designation occurs because of both individual and neighborhood factors. Interventions are needed to address shortages of providers in certain neighborhoods or with specific skills, and to address surges in administrative program functions at certain times of the year.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the contribution of the New York City Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NYC-HANES) to local public health surveillance. METHODS: Examination-diagnosed estimates of key health conditions from the 2004 NYC-HANES were compared with the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2004 national estimates. Findings were also compared with self-reported estimates from the Community Health Survey (CHS), an annually conducted local telephone survey. RESULTS: NYC-HANES estimated that among NYC adults, 25.6% had hypertension, 25.4% had hypercholesterolemia, 12.5% had diabetes, and 25.6% were obese. Compared with US adults, NYC residents had less hypertension and obesity but more herpes simplex 2 and environmental exposures (P<.05). Obesity was higher and hypertension was lower than CHS self-report estimates (P<.05). NYC-HANES and CHS self-reported diabetes estimates were similar (9.7% vs 8.7%). CONCLUSIONS: NYC-HANES and national estimates differed for key chronic, infectious, and environmental indicators, suggesting the need for local data. Examination surveys may provide more accurate information for underreported conditions than local telephone surveys. Community-level health and nutrition examination surveys complement existing data, providing critical information for targeting local interventions.

OBJECTIVE: Fear of a partner, a component of intimate partner violence (IPV), can be used in clinical IPV assessment. This study examines correlates of fear in a population-based, urban sample to inform a gender-specific health care response to IPV. METHODS: This study used pooled data on 9687 men and 13,903 women collected in 2002, 2004 and 2005 through three random-digit-dial surveys of New York City adults. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were used to examine associations between fear and sociodemographic and health-related factors. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in age-adjusted prevalence of reported fear of a partner between women (2.7%) and men (2.2%). In multivariable analysis, fear was correlated with being female, younger age, divorced or separated marital status, poor self-reported health status, and multiple sex partners. The most striking gender difference was in the stronger association with multiple sex partners among women (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]=6.2; p<0.01). Binge drinking was correlated with fear only among low-income adults (aOR=2.8; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: IPV is a health concern for both men and women, and a risk profile for fear can guide IPV assessment in health care. Physicians should consider multiple sex partners in women and alcohol misuse in low-income patients as potential markers for IPV.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity and diabetes have increased rapidly nationwide, yet reliable information on these disease trends in local urban settings is unavailable. We undertook this study to characterize trends in obesity and diagnosed diabetes from 2002 to 2004 among white, black, and Hispanic adult residents of New York City. METHODS: We used data from the Community Health Survey, an annual random-digit-dial telephone survey of approximately 10,000 New York City adults aged 18 years or older, and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a similar nationwide survey. Main outcome measures were body mass index (BMI), calculated from self-reported height and weight, and self-reported diabetes. RESULTS: In 2 years, the prevalence of obesity increased 17% in New York City, from 19.5% in 2002 to 22.8% in 2004 (P < .0001). The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes also increased 17%, from 8.1% in 2002 to 9.5% in 2004 (P < .01). Nationally, the prevalence of obesity increased by 6% during this same time period (P < .05), and diabetes prevalence did not increase significantly. The median BMI among white adults in New York City was 25.1 kg/m(2), significantly lower than among Hispanics (26.4 kg/m(2)) and blacks (26.6 kg/m(2), P < .05). The prevalence of diabetes increased across all BMI categories. DISCUSSION: The rapid increase in obesity and diabetes in New York City suggests the severity of these twin epidemics and the importance of collecting and analyzing local data for local programming and policy making.

Past research has shown that women who either have sex with women or who identify as lesbian access less preventive health care than other women. However, previous studies have generally relied on convenience samples and have not examined the multiple associations of sexual identity, behavior and health care access/utilization. Unlike other studies, we used a multi-lingual population-based survey in New York City to examine the use of Pap tests and mammograms, as well as health care coverage and the use of primary care providers, among women who have sex with women and by sexual identity status. We found that women who had sex with women (WSW) were less likely to have had a Pap test in the past 3 years (66 vs. 80%, p<0.0001) or a mammogram in the past 2 years (53 vs. 73%, p=0.0009) than other women. After adjusting for health insurance coverage and other factors, WSW were ten times [adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 9.8, 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.2, 22.9] and four times (AOR, 4.0, 95% CI 1.3, 12.0) more likely than non-WSW to not have received a timely Pap test or mammogram, respectively. Women whose behavior and identity were concordant were more likely to access Pap tests and mammograms than those whose behavior and identity were discordant. For example, WSW who identified as lesbians were more likely to have received timely Pap tests (97 vs. 48%, p<0.0001) and mammograms (86 vs. 42%, p=0.0007) than those who identified as heterosexual. Given the current screening recommendations for Pap tests and mammograms, provider counseling and public health messages should be inclusive of women who have sex with women, including those who have sex with women but identify as heterosexual.

This article reviews current research on emotional and behavioral disorders among children in foster care and summarizes findings regarding utilization of mental health services in this population. Barriers to needed care are explored, practice and policy implications of lack of care are discussed, and alternative, evidence-based treatment options for foster youth are examined and proposed.

OBJECTIVES: Recently, New York City and New York State increased cigarette excise taxes and New York City implemented a smoke-free workplace law. To assess the impact of these policies on smoking cessation in New York City, we examined over-the-counter sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products. METHODS: Pharmacy sales data were collected in real time as part of nontraditional surveillance activities. We used Poisson generalized estimating equations to analyze the effect of smoking-related policies on pharmacy-specific weekly sales of nicotine patches and gum. We assessed effect modification by pharmacy location. RESULTS: We observed increases in NRT product sales during the weeks of the cigarette tax increases and the smoke-free workplace law. Pharmacies in low-income areas generally had larger and more persistent increases in response to tax increases than those in higher-income areas. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time monitoring of existing nontraditional surveillance data, such as pharmacy sales of NRT products, can help assess the effects of public policies on cessation attempts. Cigarette tax increases and smoke-free workplace regulations were associated with increased smoking cessation attempts in New York City, particularly in low-income areas.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the impact of comprehensive tobacco control measures in New York City. METHODS: In 2002, New York City implemented a tobacco control strategy of (1) increased cigarette excise taxes; (2) legal action that made virtually all work-places, including bars and restaurants, smoke free; (3) increased cessation services, including a large-scale free nicotine-patch program; (4) education; and (5) evaluation. The health department also began annual surveys on a broad array of health measures, including smoking. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2003, smoking prevalence among New York City adults decreased by 11% (from 21.6% to 19.2%, approximately 140000 fewer smokers). Smoking declined among all age groups, race/ethnicities, and education levels; in both genders; among both US-born and foreign-born persons; and in all 5 boroughs. Increased taxation appeared to account for the largest proportion of the decrease; however, between 2002 and 2003 the proportion of cigarettes purchased outside New York City doubled, reducing the effective price increase by a third. CONCLUSIONS: Concerted local action can sharply reduce smoking prevalence. However, further progress will require national action, particularly to increase cigarette taxes, reduce cigarette tax evasion, expand education and cessation services, and limit tobacco marketing.