Faculty Bibliography

STUDY QUESTION:How did the first two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves affect fertility rates in the USA? SUMMARY ANSWER:States differed widely in how their fertility rates changed following the COVID-19 outbreak and these changes were influenced more by state-level economic, racial, political, and social factors than by COVID-19 wave severity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY:The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to already declining fertility rates in the USA, but not equally across states. Identifying drivers of differential changes in fertility rates can help explain variations in demographic shifts across states in the USA and motivate policies that support families in general, not only during crises. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION:This is an ecological study using state-level data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia (n = 51). The study period extends from 2020 to 2021 with historical data from 2016 to 2019. We identified Wave 1 as the first apex for each state after February 2020 and Wave 2 as the second apex, during Fall/Winter 2020-2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS:State-level COVID-19 wave severity, defined as case acceleration during each 3-month COVID-19 wave (cases/100 000 population/month), was derived from 7-day weekly moving average COVID-19 case rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). State-level fertility rate changes (change in average monthly fertility rate/100 000 women of reproductive age (WRA)/year) were derived from the CDC Bureau of Vital Statistics and from 2020 US Census and University of Virginia 2021 population estimates 9 months after each COVID-19 wave. We performed univariate analyses to describe national and state-level fertility rate changes following each wave, and simple and multivariable linear regression analyses to assess the relation of COVID-19 wave severity and other state-level characteristics with fertility rate changes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE:Nationwide, fertility dropped by 17.5 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 1 and 9.2 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 2. The declines following Wave 1 were largest among majority-Democrat, more non-White states where people practiced greater social distancing. Greater COVID-19 wave severity was associated with steeper fertility rate decline post-Wave 1 in simple regression, but the association was attenuated when adjusted for other covariates. Adjusting for the economic impact of the pandemic (hypothesized mediator) also attenuated the effect. There was no relation between COVID-19 wave severity and fertility rate change following Wave 2. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION:Our study harnesses state-level data so individual-level conclusions cannot be inferred. There may be residual confounding in our multivariable regression and we were underpowered to detect some effects. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS:The COVID-19 pandemic initially impacted the national fertility rate but, overall, the fertility rate rebounded to the pre-pandemic level following Wave 2. Consistent with prior literature, COVID-19 wave severity did not appear to predict fertility rate change. Economic, racial, political, and social factors influenced state-specific fertility rates during the pandemic more than the severity of the outbreak alone. Future studies in other countries should also consider whether these factors account for internal heterogeneity when examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises on fertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S):L.G.K. received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R00ES030403), M.C. from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (20-A0-00-1005789), and M.L. and E.S. from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES032808). None of the authors have competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER:N/A.

BACKGROUND:Sub-cohort sampling designs such as a case-cohort study play a key role in studying biomarker-disease associations due to their cost effectiveness. Time-to-event outcome is often the focus in cohort studies, and the research goal is to assess the association between the event risk and risk factors. In this paper, we propose a novel goodness-of-fit two-phase sampling design for time-to-event outcomes when some covariates (e.g., biomarkers) can only be measured on a subgroup of study subjects. METHODS:Assuming that an external model, which can be the well-established risk models such as the Gail model for breast cancer, Gleason score for prostate cancer, and Framingham risk models for heart diseases, or built from preliminary data, is available to relate the outcome and complete covariates, we propose to oversample subjects with worse goodness-of-fit (GOF) based on an external survival model and time-to-event. With the cases and controls sampled using the GOF two-phase design, the inverse sampling probability weighting method is used to estimate the log hazard ratio of both incomplete and complete covariates. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the efficiency gain of our proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs over case-cohort study designs. RESULTS:Through extensive simulations based on a dataset from the New York University Women's Health Study, we showed that the proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs were unbiased and generally had higher efficiency compared to the standard case-cohort study designs. CONCLUSION:In cohort studies with rare outcomes, an important design question is how to select informative subjects to reduce sampling costs while maintaining statistical efficiency. Our proposed goodness-of-fit two-phase design provides efficient alternatives to standard case-cohort designs for assessing the association between time-to-event outcome and risk factors. This method is conveniently implemented in standard software.

PURPOSE/UNASSIGNED:Lamina cribrosa (LC) deformation is hypothesized to play a major role in glaucoma pathogenesis. The purpose of this study was to determine in vivo how varying intraocular pressure (IOP) under fixed intracranial pressure (ICP), and vice versa, deforms the pore paths throughout the LC volume. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography scans of the optic nerve head were acquired from healthy adult rhesus monkeys under different pressures. IOP and ICP were controlled with gravity-based perfusion systems into the anterior chamber and lateral ventricle, respectively. IOP and ICP were modulated from baseline to high (19-30 mmHg) and highest (35-50 mmHg) levels while maintaining a fixed ICP of 8 to 12 mmHg and IOP of 15 mmHg, respectively. After three-dimensional registration and segmentation, the paths of pores visible in all settings were tracked based on their geometric centroids. Pore path tortuosity was defined as the measured distance divided by the minimal distance between the most anterior and posterior centroids. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The median pore tortuosity at baseline varied among the eyes (range, 1.16-1.68). For the IOP effect under fixed ICP (six eyes, five animals), two eyes showed statistically significant increased tortuosity and one showed a decrease (P < 0.05, mixed-effects model). No significant change was detected in three eyes. When modulating ICP under fixed IOP (five eyes, four animals), a similar response pattern was detected. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Baseline pore tortuosity and the response to acute pressure increase vary substantially across eyes. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:LC pore path tortuosity could be associated with glaucoma susceptibility.

BACKGROUND:Bisphenols and phthalates are high production volume chemicals used as additives in a variety of plastic consumer products leading to near ubiquitous human exposure. These chemicals have established endocrine disrupting properties and have been linked to a range of adverse reproductive and developmental outcomes. Here, we investigated exposure in relation to fetal growth. METHODS:Participants included 855 mother-fetal pairs enrolled in the population-based New York University Children's Health and Environment Study (NYU CHES). Bisphenols and phthalates were measured in maternal urine collected repeatedly during pregnancy. Analyses included 15 phthalate metabolites and 2 bisphenols that were detected in 50 % of participants or more. Fetal biometry data were extracted from electronic ultrasonography records and estimated fetal weight (EFW) was predicted for all fetuses at 20, 30, and 36 weeks gestation. We used quantile regression adjusted for covariates to model exposure-outcome relations across percentiles of fetal weight at each gestational timepoint. We examined sex differences using stratified models. RESULTS:Few statistically significant associations were observed across chemicals, gestational time periods, percentiles, and sexes. However, within gestational timepoints, we found that among females, the molar sums of the phthalates DiNP and DnOP were generally associated with decreases in EFW among smaller babies and increases in EFW among larger babies. Among males, the opposite trend was observed. However, confidence intervals were generally wide at the tails of the distribution. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:In this sample, exposure to bisphenols and phthalates was associated with small sex-specific shifts in fetal growth; however, few associations were observed at the median of fetal weight and confidence intervals in the tails were wide. Findings were strongest for DiNP and DnOP, which are increasingly used as replacements for DEHP, supporting the need for future research on these contaminants.

It is increasingly important to study the impact of environmental inhalation exposures on human health in natural or man-made disasters in civilian populations. The members of the World Trade Center Environmental Health Center (WTC EHC; WTC Survivors) had complex exposures to environmental disaster from the destruction of WTC towers and can serve to reveal the effects of WTC exposure on the entire spectrum of lung functions. We aimed to investigate the associations between complex WTC exposures and measures of spirometry and oscillometry in WTC Survivors and included 3605 patients enrolled between Oct 1, 2009 and Mar 31, 2018. We performed latent class analysis and identified five latent exposure groups. We applied linear and quantile regressions to estimate the exposure effects on the means and various quantiles of pre-bronchodilator (BD) % predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV₁/FVC ratio, as well as the resistance at an oscillating frequency of 5 Hz (R₅), frequency dependence of resistance R_5-20, and reactance area (AX). Compared with Group 5, which had low or unknown exposure and was treated as the reference group, Group 1, the local workers with both acute and chronic exposures, had a lower median of % predicted FVC (-3.6; 95% CI: -5.4, -1.7) and higher (more abnormal) measures of AX at 10th quantile (0.77 cmH₂O L^-1 s; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.13) and 25th quantile (0.80 cmH₂O L^-1 s; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.20). Results suggested heterogeneous exposures to the WTC disaster had differential effects on the distributions of lung functions in the WTC Survivors. These findings could provide insights for future investigation of environmental disaster exposures.

BACKGROUND:Air pollution is a health risk in pregnant women and children. Despite the importance of refined exposure assessment, the characterisation of personalised air pollution exposure remains a challenge in paediatric and perinatal epidemiology. OBJECTIVE:We used portable personal air monitors to characterise personalised exposure to air pollutants in pregnant women. METHODS:), and volatile organic compounds (average use = 14 days). Data were stored in real-time on a secure database via synchronisation with a smartphone application. Of 497 women who agreed to use air monitors, 273 women (55%) were successful in using air monitors for longer than a day. For these participants, we identified daily patterns of exposure to air pollutants using functional principal component analysis (3827 days of air monitoring). RESULTS:had higher daily variations compared to PM. CONCLUSIONS:Small wearables are useful for the measurement of personalised air pollution exposure in birth cohorts and identify daily patterns that cannot be captured otherwise. Successful participation, however, depends on certain individual characteristics. Future studies should consider strategies in design and analysis to account for selective participation.

BACKGROUND:Particulate matter (PM) exposure is responsible for seven million deaths annually and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of respiratory infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Understanding modifiable risk factors of high mortality, resource burdensome C19 and exposure risks such as PM is key to mitigating their devastating effects. This systematic review focuses on the literature available, identifying the spatial and temporal variation in the role of quantified PM exposure in SARS disease outcome and planning our future experimental studies. METHODS:The systematic review utilized keywords adhered to the PRISMA guidelines. We included original human research studies in English. RESULTS:and SARS-related outcomes. A geographic and temporal variation in both PM and C19's role was observed. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:C19 is a high mortality and resource intensive disease which devastated the globe. PM exposure is also a global health crisis. Our systematic review focuses on the intersection of this impactful disease-exposure dyad and understanding the role of PM is important in the development of interventions to prevent future spread of viral infections.

Detecting and characterizing subgroups with differential effects of a binary treatment has been widely studied and led to improvements in patient outcomes and population risk management. Under the setting of a continuous treatment, however, such investigations remain scarce. We propose a semiparametric change-plane model and consequently a doubly robust test statistic for assessing the existence of two subgroups with differential treatment effects under a continuous treatment. The proposed testing procedure is valid when either the baseline function for the covariate effects or the generalized propensity score function for the continuous treatment is correctly specified. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistic under the null and local alternative hypotheses are established. When the null hypothesis of no subgroup is rejected, the change-plane parameters that define the subgroups can be estimated. This paper provides a unified framework of the change-plane method to handle various types of outcomes, including the exponential family of distributions and time-to-event outcomes. Additional extensions with nonparametric estimation approaches are also provided. We evaluate the performance of our proposed methods through extensive simulation studies under various scenarios. An application to the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study with a continuous environmental exposure of arsenic is presented. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Studying time-dependent exposure mixtures has gained increasing attentions in environmental health research. When a scalar outcome is of interest, distributed lag (DL) models have been employed to characterize the exposures effects distributed over time on the mean of final outcome. However, there is a methodological gap on investigating time-dependent exposure mixtures with different quantiles of outcome. In this article, we introduce semiparametric partial-linear single-index (PLSI) DL quantile regression, which can describe the DL effects of time-dependent exposure mixtures on different quantiles of outcome and identify susceptible periods of exposures. We consider two time-dependent exposure settings: discrete and functional, when exposures are measured in a small number of time points and at dense time grids, respectively. Spline techniques are used to approximate the nonparametric DL function and single-index link function, and a profile estimation algorithm is proposed. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance and value of our proposed models and inference procedures. We further apply the proposed methods to study the effects of maternal exposures to ambient air pollutants of fine particulate and nitrogen dioxide on birth weight in New York University Children's Health and Environment Study (NYU CHES). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND:Spectral-domain (SD-) optical coherence tomography (OCT) can reliably measure axonal (peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer [pRNFL]) and neuronal (macular ganglion cell + inner plexiform layer [GCIPL]) thinning in the retina. Measurements from 2 commonly used SD-OCT devices are often pooled together in multiple sclerosis (MS) studies and clinical trials despite software and segmentation algorithm differences; however, individual pRNFL and GCIPL thickness measurements are not interchangeable between devices. In some circumstances, such as in the absence of a consistent OCT segmentation algorithm across platforms, a conversion equation to transform measurements between devices may be useful to facilitate pooling of data. The availability of normative data for SD-OCT measurements is limited by the lack of a large representative world-wide sample across various ages and ethnicities. Larger international studies that evaluate the effects of age, sex, and race/ethnicity on SD-OCT measurements in healthy control participants are needed to provide normative values that reflect these demographic subgroups to provide comparisons to MS retinal degeneration. METHODS:Participants were part of an 11-site collaboration within the International Multiple Sclerosis Visual System (IMSVISUAL) consortium. SD-OCT was performed by a trained technician for healthy control subjects using Spectralis or Cirrus SD-OCT devices. Peripapillary pRNFL and GCIPL thicknesses were measured on one or both devices. Automated segmentation protocols, in conjunction with manual inspection and correction of lines delineating retinal layers, were used. A conversion equation was developed using structural equation modeling, accounting for clustering, with healthy control data from one site where participants were scanned on both devices on the same day. Normative values were evaluated, with the entire cohort, for pRNFL and GCIPL thicknesses for each decade of age, by sex, and across racial groups using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models, accounting for clustering and adjusting for within-patient, intereye correlations. Change-point analyses were performed to determine at what age pRNFL and GCIPL thicknesses exhibit accelerated rates of decline. RESULTS:The healthy control cohort (n = 546) was 54% male and had a wide distribution of ages, ranging from 18 to 87 years, with a mean (SD) age of 39.3 (14.6) years. Based on 346 control participants at a single site, the conversion equation for pRNFL was Cirrus = -5.0 + (1.0 × Spectralis global value). Based on 228 controls, the equation for GCIPL was Cirrus = -4.5 + (0.9 × Spectralis global value). Standard error was 0.02 for both equations. After the age of 40 years, there was a decline of -2.4 μm per decade in pRNFL thickness ( P < 0.001, GEE models adjusting for sex, race, and country) and -1.4 μm per decade in GCIPL thickness ( P < 0.001). There was a small difference in pRNFL thickness based on sex, with female participants having slightly higher thickness (2.6 μm, P = 0.003). There was no association between GCIPL thickness and sex. Likewise, there was no association between race/ethnicity and pRNFL or GCIPL thicknesses. CONCLUSIONS:A conversion factor may be required when using data that are derived between different SD-OCT platforms in clinical trials and observational studies; this is particularly true for smaller cross-sectional studies or when a consistent segmentation algorithm is not available. The above conversion equations can be used when pooling data from Spectralis and Cirrus SD-OCT devices for pRNFL and GCIPL thicknesses. A faster decline in retinal thickness may occur after the age of 40 years, even in the absence of significant differences across racial groups.