Faculty Bibliography

Few studies have comprehensively investigated the association of 2 key kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), with cancer incidence. In 8,935 participants at the baseline (1996-1998) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we quantified the associations of eGFR (based on creatinine and cystatin C) and ACR with cancer risk using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Due to changing guidelines for prostate cancer screening during the follow-up period, we investigated overall cancer, overall nonprostate cancer, and site-specific cancer. During a median follow-up of 14.7 years, 2,030 incident cancer cases occurred. In demographically adjusted models, low eGFR and high ACR were associated with cancer incidence (both overall and overall nonprostate cancer). These associations were attenuated after adjusting for other shared risk factors, with a significant association remaining only for ACR (≥103 compared with 5 mg/g) and overall nonprostate cancer. For site-specific cancer, only high ACR showed a significant association with lung and urinary tract cancers. Of these, the association between ACR and lung cancer appeared most robust in several sensitivity analyses. Kidney disease measures, particularly high ACR, were independently associated with cancer risk. The association between ACR and lung cancer was uniquely robust, warranting future studies to explore potential mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE:: 38.18]) as well as its severe form, critical limb ischemia (PAD cases with resting pain, ulcer, gangrene, or leg amputation) using Cox models. Over a median follow-up of 17.4 years, there were 316 cases of PAD including 119 critical limb ischemia cases. Log-transformed galectin-3 was associated with incident PAD (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.17 [1.05-1.31] per 1 SD increment) and critical limb ischemia (1.25 [1.05-1.49] per 1 SD increment). The association was slightly attenuated after further adjusting for hs-CRP (1.14 [1.02-1.27] and 1.22 [1.02-1.45], respectively). Log-transformed hs-CRP demonstrated robust associations with PAD and critical limb ischemia even after adjusting for galectin-3 (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD increment 1.34 [1.18-1.52] and 1.34 [1.09-1.65], respectively). The addition of galectin-3 and hs-CRP to traditional atherosclerotic predictors (C statistic of the base model 0.843 [0.815-0.871]) improved the risk prediction of PAD (ΔC statistics, 0.011 [0.002-0.020]). CONCLUSIONS:Galectin-3 and hs-CRP were independently associated with incident PAD in the general population, supporting the involvement of fibrosis and inflammation in the pathophysiology of PAD.

BACKGROUND:In 2016, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) changed labeling regarding metformin contraindications in patients with diabetes and CKD from using serum creatinine-based thresholds to using eGFR-based thresholds. Because race and sex affect serum creatinine levels independently of GFR, the earlier creatinine-based contraindication may have inadvertently caused racial and sex disparities in metformin prescription among patients with low eGFR. METHODS:in a large health system (the primary cohort), we assessed the association of race and sex with metformin prescription across eGFR level before and after the FDA label change. For a replication cohort, we meta-analyzed data from 36 cohorts with 1,051,723 patients from OptumLabs Data Warehouse. RESULTS:value for interaction by period <0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The metformin label change to an eGFR-based contraindication may have reduced racial and sex disparities in metformin prescription in moderate kidney dysfunction.

BACKGROUND:Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. METHODS:The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. FINDINGS:Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. INTERPRETATION:Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is usually considered large artery disease. Interestingly, retinal microvascular findings were shown to predict PAD progression in diabetes. However, it is unknown whether retinal microvascular parameters are associated with incident PAD and its severe form, critical limb ischemia (CLI), in a community-based cohort. METHODS:Among 9371 ARIC participants (aged 49-72 years) free of a history of PAD, we quantified the associations of several retinal measures by retinal photography during the period 1993-1995 with PAD risk using Cox models. Incident PAD was defined as the first hospitalization with PAD diagnosis or leg revascularization (considered CLI if an additional diagnosis of ulcer, gangrene, or amputation). RESULTS:During a median follow-up of 18.8 years, 303 participants developed PAD (including 91 CLI cases). Although generalized retinal arteriolar narrowing was not associated with PAD, most measures of retinopathy demonstrated strong associations with PAD beyond potential confounders including diabetes, with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 3.26 (95% CI 2.18-4.90) for blot-shaped hemorrhages, 3.11 (1.83-5.29) for hard exudates, and 2.18 (1.62-2.95) for any retinopathy. Adjusted HRs were significantly greater for CLI (ranging from 3.2 to 5.9) than for PAD (all p-values <0.05). Retinopathy measures showed particularly strong associations in participants with diabetes (p-value for interaction [vs. those without diabetes] <0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Several retinopathy measures were strongly associated with PAD, especially with CLI and in diabetes. Our results support the contribution of microvascular abnormalities to the development and progression of PAD and would have implications on its preventive and therapeutic approaches.

AIMS:The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations of blood pressure categorization based on the 2017 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association guideline with the risk of peripheral artery disease (PAD). METHODS:Among 13,113 middle-aged participants, we investigated the associations of 2017 blood pressure categories (systolic <120 and diastolic <80 mmHg (normal if no anti-hypertensive medications; reference), 120-129 and <80 (elevated), 130-139 and/or 80-89 (stage 1 hypertension), and ≥140 and/or ≥90 (stage 2 hypertension)) with incident PAD (hospitalizations with a diagnosis or leg revascularization) using Cox regression models. Analyses were separately conducted in individuals with and without anti-hypertensive medications. RESULTS:During a median follow-up of 25.4 years, 466 incident PAD occurred (271 cases in 9858 participants without anti-hypertensive medications). In participants without anti-hypertensive medications, we observed significant hazard ratios of PAD in elevated blood pressure (1.80 (1.28-2.51)) and stage 2 hypertension (2.40 (1.72-3.34)), but not in stage 1 hypertension. Analyzing systolic and diastolic blood pressure separately, higher systolic blood pressure categories showed significant associations with incident PAD in a graded fashion whereas, for diastolic blood pressure, only ≥90 mmHg did. Generally similar patterns were seen among participants on anti-hypertensive medication, while they had higher risk of PAD than those without at each blood pressure category. CONCLUSIONS:Systolic blood pressure, including the category of 130-139 mmHg, showed stronger associations with incident PAD than did diastolic blood pressure. Consequently, elevated blood pressure conferred similar or even greater risk of PAD than stage 1 hypertension, with implications on how to interpret new blood pressure categories in terms of leg vascular health.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) are currently willing to consider a 30% to 40% glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline as a surrogate end point for kidney failure for clinical trials of kidney disease progression under appropriate conditions. However, these end points may not be practical for early stages of kidney disease. In March 2018, the National Kidney Foundation sponsored a scientific workshop in collaboration with the FDA and EMA to evaluate changes in albuminuria or GFR as candidate surrogate end points. Three parallel efforts were presented: meta-analyses of observational studies (cohorts), meta-analyses of clinical trials, and simulations of trial design. In cohorts, after accounting for measurement error, relationships between change in urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) or estimated GFR (eGFR) slope and the clinical outcome of kidney disease progression were strong and consistent. In trials, the posterior median R² of treatment effects on the candidate surrogates with the clinical outcome was 0.47 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.02-0.96) for early change in UACR and 0.72 (95% BCI, 0.05-0.99) when restricted to baseline UACR>30mg/g, and 0.97 (95% BCI, 0.78-1.00) for total eGFR slope at 3 years and 0.96 (95% BCI, 0.63-1.00) for chronic eGFR slope (ie, the slope excluding the first 3 months from baseline, when there might be acute changes in eGFR). The magnitude of the relationships of changes in the candidate surrogates with risk for clinical outcome was consistent across cohorts and trials: a UACR reduction of 30% or eGFR slope reduction by 0.5 to 1.0mL/min/1.73m² per year were associated with an HR of ∼0.7 for the clinical outcome in cohorts and trials. In simulations, using GFR slope as an end point substantially reduced the required sample size and duration of follow-up compared with the clinical end point when baseline eGFR was high, treatment effects were uniform, and there was no acute effect of the treatment. We conclude that both early change in albuminuria and GFR slope fulfill criteria for surrogacy for use as end points in clinical trials for chronic kidney disease progression under certain conditions, with stronger support for change in GFR than albuminuria. Implementation requires understanding conditions under which each surrogate is likely to perform well and restricting its use to those settings.