Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:We aimed at comprehensively evaluate the independent association of diabetes and its duration with incident abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and aortic diameter. METHODS AND RESULTS:We prospectively studied incident AAA according to baseline glycemic status (diabetes, prediabetes, normal glycemia) in 13,116 ARIC participants (1990-1992) and the time-varying exposure of duration post incident diabetes in 11,675 participants (1987-1989) using Cox models. Additionally, we cross-sectionally explored ultrasound-based abdominal aortic diameter by glycemic status and cumulative duration of diabetes in 4710 participants (2011-2013) using linear regression models. Over ~20 years of follow-up, diabetes (vs. normal glycemia) at baseline was independently associated with lower AAA risk (489 cases) (hazard ratio: 0.71 [95%CI 0.51-0.99]), especially after 10 years (hazard ratio: 0.58 [0.38-0.87]). Prediabetes did not demonstrate an independent association. The inverse association was more evident with longer duration of diabetes (p for trend = 0.045), with 30-50% lower risk in eight years after diabetes diagnosis. The cross-sectional analysis demonstrated smaller aortic diameters with longer duration of diabetes (e.g., -0.76 mm [-1.24, -0.28] in diabetes with 8-12 years) compared to non-diabetes, whereas prediabetes consistently showed nominally greater diameter. CONCLUSIONS:Diabetes, especially with longer duration, but not prediabetes, was independently associated with lower risk of AAA and smaller aortic diameter. Our findings suggest that long lasting clinical hyperglycemia plays an important role in the reduced AAA risk, and the reduced aortic diameter may be a structural mechanism behind this paradoxical association.

BACKGROUND:Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS:GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS:The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION:Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures. Methods/UNASSIGNED:Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch. Findings/UNASSIGNED:with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46). Interpretation/UNASSIGNED:The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available. Funding/UNASSIGNED:US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.

BACKGROUND:Although measuring albuminuria is the preferred method for defining and staging chronic kidney disease (CKD), total urine protein or dipstick protein is often measured instead. OBJECTIVE:To develop equations for converting urine protein-creatinine ratio (PCR) and dipstick protein to urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and to test their diagnostic accuracy in CKD screening and staging. DESIGN:Individual participant-based meta-analysis. SETTING:12 research and 21 clinical cohorts. PARTICIPANTS:919 383 adults with same-day measures of ACR and PCR or dipstick protein. MEASUREMENTS:Equations to convert urine PCR and dipstick protein to ACR were developed and tested for purposes of CKD screening (ACR ≥30 mg/g) and staging (stage A2: ACR of 30 to 299 mg/g; stage A3: ACR ≥300 mg/g). RESULTS:Median ACR was 14 mg/g (25th to 75th percentile of cohorts, 5 to 25 mg/g). The association between PCR and ACR was inconsistent for PCR values less than 50 mg/g. For higher PCR values, the PCR conversion equations demonstrated moderate sensitivity (91%, 75%, and 87%) and specificity (87%, 89%, and 98%) for screening (ACR >30 mg/g) and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively. Urine dipstick categories of trace or greater, trace to +, and ++ for screening for ACR values greater than 30 mg/g and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively, had moderate sensitivity (62%, 36%, and 78%) and high specificity (88%, 88%, and 98%). For individual risk prediction, the estimated 2-year 4-variable kidney failure risk equation using predicted ACR from PCR had discrimination similar to that of using observed ACR. LIMITATION:Diverse methods of ACR and PCR quantification were used; measurements were not always performed in the same urine sample. CONCLUSION:Urine ACR is the preferred measure of albuminuria; however, if ACR is not available, predicted ACR from PCR or urine dipstick protein may help in CKD screening, staging, and prognosis. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE:National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Kidney Foundation.

Few studies have comprehensively investigated the association of 2 key kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), with cancer incidence. In 8,935 participants at the baseline (1996-1998) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we quantified the associations of eGFR (based on creatinine and cystatin C) and ACR with cancer risk using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Due to changing guidelines for prostate cancer screening during the follow-up period, we investigated overall cancer, overall nonprostate cancer, and site-specific cancer. During a median follow-up of 14.7 years, 2,030 incident cancer cases occurred. In demographically adjusted models, low eGFR and high ACR were associated with cancer incidence (both overall and overall nonprostate cancer). These associations were attenuated after adjusting for other shared risk factors, with a significant association remaining only for ACR (≥103 compared with 5 mg/g) and overall nonprostate cancer. For site-specific cancer, only high ACR showed a significant association with lung and urinary tract cancers. Of these, the association between ACR and lung cancer appeared most robust in several sensitivity analyses. Kidney disease measures, particularly high ACR, were independently associated with cancer risk. The association between ACR and lung cancer was uniquely robust, warranting future studies to explore potential mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE:: 38.18]) as well as its severe form, critical limb ischemia (PAD cases with resting pain, ulcer, gangrene, or leg amputation) using Cox models. Over a median follow-up of 17.4 years, there were 316 cases of PAD including 119 critical limb ischemia cases. Log-transformed galectin-3 was associated with incident PAD (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.17 [1.05-1.31] per 1 SD increment) and critical limb ischemia (1.25 [1.05-1.49] per 1 SD increment). The association was slightly attenuated after further adjusting for hs-CRP (1.14 [1.02-1.27] and 1.22 [1.02-1.45], respectively). Log-transformed hs-CRP demonstrated robust associations with PAD and critical limb ischemia even after adjusting for galectin-3 (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD increment 1.34 [1.18-1.52] and 1.34 [1.09-1.65], respectively). The addition of galectin-3 and hs-CRP to traditional atherosclerotic predictors (C statistic of the base model 0.843 [0.815-0.871]) improved the risk prediction of PAD (ΔC statistics, 0.011 [0.002-0.020]). CONCLUSIONS:Galectin-3 and hs-CRP were independently associated with incident PAD in the general population, supporting the involvement of fibrosis and inflammation in the pathophysiology of PAD.

BACKGROUND:In 2016, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) changed labeling regarding metformin contraindications in patients with diabetes and CKD from using serum creatinine-based thresholds to using eGFR-based thresholds. Because race and sex affect serum creatinine levels independently of GFR, the earlier creatinine-based contraindication may have inadvertently caused racial and sex disparities in metformin prescription among patients with low eGFR. METHODS:in a large health system (the primary cohort), we assessed the association of race and sex with metformin prescription across eGFR level before and after the FDA label change. For a replication cohort, we meta-analyzed data from 36 cohorts with 1,051,723 patients from OptumLabs Data Warehouse. RESULTS:value for interaction by period <0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The metformin label change to an eGFR-based contraindication may have reduced racial and sex disparities in metformin prescription in moderate kidney dysfunction.