Faculty Bibliography

Importance/UNASSIGNED:Prostate cancer imaging rates appear to vary by health care setting. With the recent extension of the Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act, the government has provided funds for veterans to seek care outside the Veterans Health Administration (VA). It is important to understand the difference in imaging rates and subsequent differences in patterns of care in the VA vs a traditional fee-for-service setting such as Medicare. Objective/UNASSIGNED:To assess the association between prostate cancer imaging rates and a VA vs fee-for-service health care setting. Design, Setting, and Participants/UNASSIGNED:This cohort study included data for men who received a diagnosis of prostate cancer from January 1, 2004, through March 31, 2008, that were collected from the VA Central Cancer Registry, linked to administrate claims and Medicare utilization records, and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database. Three distinct nationally representative cohorts were constructed (use of VA only, use of Medicare only, and dual use of VA and Medicare). Men older than 85 years at diagnosis and men without high-risk features but missing any tumor risk characteristic (prostate-specific antigen, Gleason grade, or clinical stage) were excluded. Analysis of the data was completed from March 2016 to February 2018. Exposures/UNASSIGNED:Patient utilization of different health care delivery systems. Main Outcomes and Measures/UNASSIGNED:Rates of prostate cancer imaging were analyzed by health care setting (Medicare only, VA and Medicare, and VA only) among patients with low-risk prostate cancer and patients with high-risk prostate cancer. Results/UNASSIGNED:Of 98 867 men with prostate cancer (77.4% white; mean [SD] age, 70.26 [7.48] years) in the study cohort, 57.3% were in the Medicare-only group, 14.5% in the VA and Medicare group, and 28.1% in the VA-only group. Among men with low-risk prostate cancer, the Medicare-only group had the highest rate of guideline-discordant imaging (52.5%), followed by the VA and Medicare group (50.9%) and the VA-only group (45.9%) (P < .001). Imaging rates for men with high-risk prostate cancer were not significantly different among the 3 groups. Multivariable analysis showed that individuals in the VA and Medicare group (risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.98) and VA-only group (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.92) were less likely to receive guideline-discordant imaging than those in the Medicare-only group. Conclusions and Relevance/UNASSIGNED:The results of this study suggest that patients with prostate cancer who use Medicare rather than the VA for health care could experience more utilization of health care services without an improvement in the quality of care.

BACKGROUND:Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments. METHODS:We used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker's willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker's willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations. RESULTS:A new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS:Value of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.

Purpose: To compare the effectiveness of standard treatment using partial nephrectomy and personalized management strategies for small renal tumors using a simulation model.
Material(s) and Method(s): A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors using: (1) uniform treatment with partial nephrectomy; or personalized options incorporating (2) percutaneous ablation; (3) biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to nephron-sparing therapy; (4) watchful waiting for growth; and (5) MRI-based selection of papillary RCC for watchful waiting. The model included patient age, gender, chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage, renal functional decline specific to treatment type, comorbidities, benign and malignant tumors, RCC subtypes, and differential risks of cancer progression. Decisionmaking based on histologic subtype from biopsy was tested in sensitivity analysis.
Result(s): Partial nephrectomy was favored in patients of all ages with normal renal function. Otherwise, personalized strategies improved life expectancy compared with partial nephrectomy. The favorability of personalized therapy depended upon CKD stage, tumor anatomy and comorbidities. For example, patients with CKD stages 2 or 3a and moderate or high tumor anatomic complexity were most effectively treated with MRI-based management when they had no comorbidities (+ 2.57 years for MRI vs. partial nephrectomy in CKD 3a, Nephrometry Score 10), but with Charlson Comorbidity Index >=1, biopsy or watchful waiting for growth were most effective. Biopsy-based management became most effective in multiple patient subcategories when histologic subtype guided treatment selection.
Conclusion(s): Personalized treatment selection for small renal tumors likely improves life expectancy for patients with abnormal renal function

OBJECTIVE:Lung cancer is the leading cause of non-AIDS-defining cancer deaths among HIV-infected individuals. Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is endorsed by multiple national organizations, whether HIV-infected individuals would have similar benefit as uninfected individuals from lung cancer screening is unknown. Our objective was to determine the benefits and harms of lung cancer screening among HIV-infected individuals. DESIGN/METHODS:We modified an existing simulation model, the Lung Cancer Policy Model, for HIV-infected patients. DATA SOURCES/METHODS:Veterans Aging Cohort Study, Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV Cohort, and medical literature. TARGET POPULATION/METHODS:HIV-infected current and former smokers. TIME HORIZON/METHODS:Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE/CONCLUSIONS:Population. INTERVENTION/METHODS:Annual LDCT screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 until ages 72 or 77 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES/METHODS:Benefits assessed included lung cancer mortality reduction and life-years gained; harms assessed included numbers of LDCT examinations, false-positive results, and overdiagnosed cases. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS/RESULTS:For HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl and 100% antiretroviral therapy adherence, screening using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria (age 55-77, 30 pack-years of smoking, current smoker or quit within 15 years of screening) would reduce lung cancer mortality by 18.9%, similar to the mortality reduction of uninfected individuals. Alternative screening strategies utilizing lower screening age and/or pack-years criteria increase mortality reduction, but require more LDCT examinations. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Strategies assumed 100% screening adherence. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Lung cancer screening reduces mortality in HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl, with a number of efficient strategies for eligibility, including the current Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria.

Background. Multilevel interventions combine individual component interventions, and their design can be informed by decision analysis. Our objective was to identify the optimal combination of interventions for alcohol-using HIV+ individuals on antiretroviral drug therapy in Maharashtra, India, explicitly considering stakeholder constraints. Methods. Using an HIV simulation, we evaluated the expected net monetary benefit (ENMB), the probability of lying on the efficiency frontier (PEF), and annual program costs of 5,836 unique combinations of 15 single-focused HIV risk-reduction interventions. We evaluated scenarios of 1) no constraints (i.e., maximize expected value), 2) short-term budget constraints (limits on annual programmatic costs of US$200,000 and $400,000), and 3) a constraint stemming from risk aversion (requiring that the strategy has >50% PEF). Results. With no constraints, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, long group counseling for sex-risk, and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $428,886; PEF ∼27%) maximized ENMB and would be the optimal design. With a cost constraint of $400,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, brief group counseling for sex-risk, and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $374,745; PEF ∼4%) maximized ENMB. With a cost constraint of $200,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, and brief group counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $187,335; PEF ∼54%) maximized ENMB. With the risk aversion constraint, the same configuration (long individual alcohol counseling, text-message support, and brief group counseling for sex-risk) maximized health benefit. Conclusion. Evaluating the costs, risks, and projected benefits of alternatives supports informed decision making prior to initiating study; however, stakeholder constraints should be explicitly included and discussed when using decision analyses to guide study design.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Active surveillance (AS) is the most rapidly expanding management option for favorable-risk prostate cancer (PCa). Early studies suggested substantial decrements in utility (quality of life weights) from disease-related anxiety. Our objective was to determine utilities for contemporary AS patients using different instruments. Methods/UNASSIGNED:We performed a systematic review of PubMed, PMC and OVID for utility measurements in modern AS patients. We then examined utilities among 37 men on AS participating in focus groups between 2015-2016 using the generic EurQol five dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) and Patient Oriented Prostate Utility Scale (PORPUS), a PCa-specific instrument. Results/UNASSIGNED:The systematic review found previous studies with utilities for PCa treatment and historical watchful waiting populations, but none specifically in contemporary AS. In our AS population, the mean EQ-5D-3L score was 0.90±0.16 (median, 1.00; range, 0.21-1.00) and PORPUS was 0.98±0.03 (median, 0.99; range, 0.84-1.00). The Spearman correlation between the EQ-5D-3L and PORPUS was 0.87 (P<0.0001), and 38% of patients had a difference >0.1 between instruments. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:Most contemporary AS patients had high utility scores suggesting that they perceive themselves in good health without a major decrement in quality of life from the disease. However, some patients had substantial differences in utility measured with generic versus disease-specific instruments. Further study is warranted into the optimal instrument for utility assessment in contemporary AS patients.

INTRODUCTION: We used a computer simulation of HIV progression and transmission to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of three strategies to seek out and test individuals with undiagnosed HIV in New York City (NYC). SETTING: Hypothetical NYC population METHODS:: We incorporated the observed effects and costs of the three "seek and test" strategies in a computer simulation of HIV in NYC, comparing a scenario in which the strategies were scaled up with a one-year implementation or a long-term implementation with a counterfactual scenario with no scale-up. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression, calibrated to NYC epidemiological data from 2003 to 2015. The three approaches were respondent driven sampling (RDS) with anonymous HIV testing ("RDS-A"), RDS with a two-session confidential HIV testing approach ("RDS-C"), and venue-based sampling ("VBS"). RESULTS: RDS-A was the most cost-effective strategy tested. When implemented for only one year and then stopped thereafter, using a societal perspective, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no intervention was $812/QALY, $18,110/QALY, and $20,362/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When interventions were implemented long-term, the cost per QALY gained versus no intervention was cost-saving, $31,773/QALY, and $35,148/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When compared to RDS-A the incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for both VBS and RDS-C were dominated. CONCLUSION: The expansion of the RDS-A strategy would substantially reduce HIV-related deaths and new HIV infections in NYC, and would be either cost-saving or have favorable cost-effectiveness.