Faculty Bibliography

Background. Reference life expectancies inform frequently used health metrics, which play an integral role in determining resource allocation and health policy decision making. Existing reference life expectancies are not able to account for variation in geographies, populations, and disease states. Using a computer simulation, we developed a reference life expectancy estimation that considers competing causes of mortality, and is tailored to population characteristics. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that explicitly represented the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and the risk factors associated with their onset. The microsimulation follows a birth cohort of hypothetical individuals resembling the population of the United States. To estimate a reference life expectancy, we compared current circumstances with an idealized scenario in which all modifiable risk factors were eliminated and adherence to evidence-based therapies was perfect. We compared estimations of years of potential years life lost with alternative approaches. Results. In the idealized scenario, we estimated that overall life expectancy in the United States would increase by 5.9 years to 84.7 years. Life expectancy for men would increase from 76.4 years to 82.5 years, and life expectancy for women would increase from 81.3 years to 86.8 years. Using age-75 truncation to estimate potential years life lost compared to using the idealized life expectancy underestimated potential health gains overall (38%), disproportionately underestimated potential health gains for women (by 70%) compared to men (by 40%), and disproportionately underestimated the importance of heart disease for white women and black men. Conclusion. Mathematical simulations can be used to estimate an idealized reference life expectancy among a population to better inform and assess progress toward targets to improve population health.

BACKGROUND:Hepatocelluar cancer (HCC) is the leading cause of death among people with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis. Our aim was to determine the optimal surveillance frequency for patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis. METHODS:We developed a decision analytic Markov model and validated it against data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) study group and published epidemiologic studies. Four strategies of different surveillance intervals were compared: no surveillance and ultrasound surveillance every 12, 6, and 3 months. We estimated lifetime survival, life expectancy, quality adjusted life years (QALY), total costs associated with each strategy, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. We applied a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000. Analysis was conducted for two scenarios: a scenario reflecting current HCV and HCC surveillance compliance rates and treatment use and an aspirational scenario. RESULTS:In the current scenario the preferred strategy was 3-month surveillance with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7,159/QALY. In the aspirational scenario, 6-month surveillance was preferred with an ICER of $82,807/QALY because treating more people with HCV led to a lower incidence of HCC. Sensitivity analyses suggested that surveillance every 12 months would suffice in the particular circumstance when patients are very likely to return regularly for testing and when appropriate HCV and HCC treatment is readily available. Compared with the current scenario, the aspirational scenario resulted in a 1.87 year gain in life expectancy for the cohort because of large reductions in decompensated cirrhosis and HCC incidence. CONCLUSIONS:HCC surveillance has good value for money for patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis. Investments to improve adherence to surveillance should be made when rates are suboptimal. Surveillance every 12 months will suffice when patients are very likely to return regularly for testing and when appropriate HCV and HCC treatment is readily available.

BACKGROUND:A study of a comprehensive HIV Care Coordination Program (CCP) showed effectiveness in increasing viral load suppression (VLS) among PLWH in New York City (NYC). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of the CCP in NYC. METHODS:We incorporated observed effects and costs of the CCP into a computer simulation of HIV in NYC, comparing strategy scale-up with no implementation. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression, and was calibrated to NYC HIV epidemiological data from 1997 to 2009. We assessed incremental cost-effectiveness from a health sector perspective using 2017 $US, a 20-year time horizon, and a 3% annual discount rate. We explored two scenarios: (1) two-year average enrollment and (2) continuous enrollment. RESULTS:In scenario 1, scale-up resulted in a cost-per-infection-averted of $898,104 and a cost-per-QALY-gained of $423,721. In sensitivity analyses, scale-up achieved cost-effectiveness if effectiveness increased from RR1.11 to RR1.37 or costs decreased by 41.7%. Limiting the intervention to persons with unsuppressed viral load prior to enrollment (RR1.32) attenuated the cost reduction necessary to 11.5%. In scenario 2, scale-up resulted in a cost-per-infection-averted of $705,171 and cost-per-QALY-gained of $720,970. In sensitivity analyses, scale-up achieved cost-effectiveness if effectiveness increased from RR1.11 to RR1.46 or program costs decreased by 71.3%. Limiting the intervention to persons with unsuppressed viral load attenuated the cost reduction necessary to 38.7%. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Cost-effective CCP scale-up would require reduced costs and/or focused enrollment within NYC, but may be more readily achieved in cities with lower background VLS levels.

Shared decision making (SDM) has increasingly become appreciated as a method to enhance patient involvement in health care decisions, patient-provider communication, and patient-centered care. Compared with cancer, the literature on SDM for hypertension is more limited. This is notable because hypertension is the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease and both conditions disproportionately affect certain subgroups of patients. However, SDM holds promise for improving health equity by better engaging patients in their health care. For example, many reasonable options exist for treating uncomplicated stage-1 hypertension. These options include medication and/or lifestyle changes such as healthy eating, physical activity, and weight management. Deciding on "the best" plan of action for hypertension management can be challenging because patients have different goals and preferences for treatment. As hypertension management may be considered a preference-sensitive decision, adherence to treatment plans may be greater if those plans are concordant with patient preferences. SDM can be implemented in a broad array of care contexts, from patient-provider dyads to interprofessional collaborations. In this article, we argue that SDM has the potential to advance health equity and improve clinical care. We also propose a process to evaluate whether SDM has occurred and suggest future directions for research.

Background. Despite the high efficacy of PrEP, it continues to be underutilized. We examined the extent to which patients with a documented positive test for STIs were provided PrEP at an urban municipal medical center. Methods. We reviewed data of all patients seen between January 1, 2014 and July 30, 2017 who were > 18 years old and had an initial HIV negative test and >=1 positive test for Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, or Syphilis. We examined PrEP prescription data by gender, race/ethnicity, and clinic location. Differences between groups were compared using Chi-squared analysis and logistic regression. Results. Of 1,142 initially HIV- patients who were identified as having a positive STI result, 52% were female, 89% either Black or Hispanic, with a median age of 40 years (quartiles 30, 47). 58% had Medicare/Medicaid and 34% were self-pay or uninsured (Table 1). Only 25 (2.1%) of 1,142 patients who had >=1 STI test positive were prescribed PrEP. No women received PrEP. Whites (aOR: 21.7 [95% CI:4.4, 107, P < 0.001] and Hispanics (aOR:6.64 [95% CI:1.35, 32.8, P = 0.02] were both more likely to receive PrEP than Blacks, after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, and insurance. All PrEP prescriptions originated from the Medicine, Emergency, or HIV specialty clinics although most STI testing was obtained in Emergency and Obstetrical/Gynecological clinics (Table 2). Conclusion. There were significant missed opportunities for HIV prevention among patients with STIs within the medical center, particularly among Hispanic and Black patients. Enrichment programs to educate providers and increase PrEP prescriptions may have a major impact on expanding HIV prevention, especially for women. (Figure Presented)

Importance/UNASSIGNED:Prostate cancer imaging rates appear to vary by health care setting. With the recent extension of the Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act, the government has provided funds for veterans to seek care outside the Veterans Health Administration (VA). It is important to understand the difference in imaging rates and subsequent differences in patterns of care in the VA vs a traditional fee-for-service setting such as Medicare. Objective/UNASSIGNED:To assess the association between prostate cancer imaging rates and a VA vs fee-for-service health care setting. Design, Setting, and Participants/UNASSIGNED:This cohort study included data for men who received a diagnosis of prostate cancer from January 1, 2004, through March 31, 2008, that were collected from the VA Central Cancer Registry, linked to administrate claims and Medicare utilization records, and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database. Three distinct nationally representative cohorts were constructed (use of VA only, use of Medicare only, and dual use of VA and Medicare). Men older than 85 years at diagnosis and men without high-risk features but missing any tumor risk characteristic (prostate-specific antigen, Gleason grade, or clinical stage) were excluded. Analysis of the data was completed from March 2016 to February 2018. Exposures/UNASSIGNED:Patient utilization of different health care delivery systems. Main Outcomes and Measures/UNASSIGNED:Rates of prostate cancer imaging were analyzed by health care setting (Medicare only, VA and Medicare, and VA only) among patients with low-risk prostate cancer and patients with high-risk prostate cancer. Results/UNASSIGNED:Of 98 867 men with prostate cancer (77.4% white; mean [SD] age, 70.26 [7.48] years) in the study cohort, 57.3% were in the Medicare-only group, 14.5% in the VA and Medicare group, and 28.1% in the VA-only group. Among men with low-risk prostate cancer, the Medicare-only group had the highest rate of guideline-discordant imaging (52.5%), followed by the VA and Medicare group (50.9%) and the VA-only group (45.9%) (P < .001). Imaging rates for men with high-risk prostate cancer were not significantly different among the 3 groups. Multivariable analysis showed that individuals in the VA and Medicare group (risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.98) and VA-only group (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.92) were less likely to receive guideline-discordant imaging than those in the Medicare-only group. Conclusions and Relevance/UNASSIGNED:The results of this study suggest that patients with prostate cancer who use Medicare rather than the VA for health care could experience more utilization of health care services without an improvement in the quality of care.

BACKGROUND:Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments. METHODS:We used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker's willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker's willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations. RESULTS:A new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS:Value of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.

Purpose: To compare the effectiveness of standard treatment using partial nephrectomy and personalized management strategies for small renal tumors using a simulation model.
Material(s) and Method(s): A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors using: (1) uniform treatment with partial nephrectomy; or personalized options incorporating (2) percutaneous ablation; (3) biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to nephron-sparing therapy; (4) watchful waiting for growth; and (5) MRI-based selection of papillary RCC for watchful waiting. The model included patient age, gender, chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage, renal functional decline specific to treatment type, comorbidities, benign and malignant tumors, RCC subtypes, and differential risks of cancer progression. Decisionmaking based on histologic subtype from biopsy was tested in sensitivity analysis.
Result(s): Partial nephrectomy was favored in patients of all ages with normal renal function. Otherwise, personalized strategies improved life expectancy compared with partial nephrectomy. The favorability of personalized therapy depended upon CKD stage, tumor anatomy and comorbidities. For example, patients with CKD stages 2 or 3a and moderate or high tumor anatomic complexity were most effectively treated with MRI-based management when they had no comorbidities (+ 2.57 years for MRI vs. partial nephrectomy in CKD 3a, Nephrometry Score 10), but with Charlson Comorbidity Index >=1, biopsy or watchful waiting for growth were most effective. Biopsy-based management became most effective in multiple patient subcategories when histologic subtype guided treatment selection.
Conclusion(s): Personalized treatment selection for small renal tumors likely improves life expectancy for patients with abnormal renal function

OBJECTIVE:Lung cancer is the leading cause of non-AIDS-defining cancer deaths among HIV-infected individuals. Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is endorsed by multiple national organizations, whether HIV-infected individuals would have similar benefit as uninfected individuals from lung cancer screening is unknown. Our objective was to determine the benefits and harms of lung cancer screening among HIV-infected individuals. DESIGN/METHODS:We modified an existing simulation model, the Lung Cancer Policy Model, for HIV-infected patients. DATA SOURCES/METHODS:Veterans Aging Cohort Study, Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV Cohort, and medical literature. TARGET POPULATION/METHODS:HIV-infected current and former smokers. TIME HORIZON/METHODS:Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE/CONCLUSIONS:Population. INTERVENTION/METHODS:Annual LDCT screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 until ages 72 or 77 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES/METHODS:Benefits assessed included lung cancer mortality reduction and life-years gained; harms assessed included numbers of LDCT examinations, false-positive results, and overdiagnosed cases. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS/RESULTS:For HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl and 100% antiretroviral therapy adherence, screening using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria (age 55-77, 30 pack-years of smoking, current smoker or quit within 15 years of screening) would reduce lung cancer mortality by 18.9%, similar to the mortality reduction of uninfected individuals. Alternative screening strategies utilizing lower screening age and/or pack-years criteria increase mortality reduction, but require more LDCT examinations. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Strategies assumed 100% screening adherence. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Lung cancer screening reduces mortality in HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl, with a number of efficient strategies for eligibility, including the current Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria.