Faculty Bibliography

We examined a natural history of opioid overdose deaths from 1999-2021 in the United States to describe state-level spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the waves of the epidemic. We obtained overdose death counts by state from 1999-2021, categorized as involving prescription opioids, heroin, synthetic opioids, or unspecified drugs. We developed a Bayesian multivariate multiple change point model to flexibly estimate the timing and magnitude of state-specific changes in death rates involving each drug type. We found substantial variability around the timing and severity of each wave across states. The first wave of prescription-involved deaths started between 1999 and 2005, the second wave of heroin-involved deaths started between 2010 and 2014, and the third wave of synthetic opioid-involved deaths started between 2014 and 2021. The severity of the second and third waves was greater in states in the eastern half of the country. Our study highlights state-level variation in the timing and severity of the waves of the opioid epidemic by presenting a 23-year natural history of opioid overdose mortality in the United States. While reinforcing the general notion of three waves, we find that states did not uniformly experience the impacts of each wave.

OBJECTIVE:To assess whether chronic pain increases the risk of COVID-19 complications and whether opioid use disorder (OUD) differentiates this risk among New York State Medicaid beneficiaries. DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS/METHODS:This was a retrospective cohort study of New York State Medicaid claims data. We evaluated Medicaid claims from March 2019 through December 2020 to determine whether chronic pain increased the risk of COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and complications and whether this relationship differed by OUD status. We included beneficiaries 18-64 years of age with 10 months of prior enrollment. Patients with chronic pain were propensity score-matched to those without chronic pain on demographics, utilization, and comorbidities to control for confounders and were stratified by OUD. Complementary log-log regressions estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations; logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) of hospital complications and readmissions within 0-30, 31-60, and 61-90 days. RESULTS:Among 773 880 adults, chronic pain was associated with greater hazards of COVID-related ED visits (HR = 1.22 [95% CI: 1.16-1.29]) and hospitalizations (HR = 1.19 [95% CI: 1.12-1.27]). Patients with chronic pain and OUD had even greater hazards of hospitalization (HR = 1.25 [95% CI: 1.07-1.47]) and increased odds of hepatic- and cardiac-related events (OR = 1.74 [95% CI: 1.10-2.74]). CONCLUSIONS:Chronic pain increased the risk of COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations. Presence of OUD further increased the risk of COVID-19 hospitalizations and the odds of hepatic- and cardiac-related events. Results highlight intersecting risks among a vulnerable population and can inform tailored COVID-19 management.

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Two states modified laws to remove or substantially reduce criminal penalties for any drug possession. The hypothesis was that removing criminal penalties for drug possession may reduce fatal drug overdoses due to reduced incarceration and increased calls for help at the scene of an overdose. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To evaluate whether decriminalization of drug possession in Oregon and Washington was associated with changes in either direction in fatal drug overdose rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This cohort study used a synthetic control method approach to examine whether there were changes in drug possession laws and fatal drug overdose rates in Oregon and Washington in the postpolicy period (February 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Oregon and March 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Washington). A counterfactual comparison group (synthetic controls) was created for Oregon and Washington, using 48 states and the District of Columbia, that did not implement similar policies during the study period (January 1, 2018, to March 31, 2022). For 2018-2021, final multiple cause-of-death data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) were used. For 2022, provisional NVSS data were used. Drug overdose deaths were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision underlying cause-of-death codes X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14. EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:In Oregon, Measure 110 went into effect on February 1, 2021. In Washington, the Washington Supreme Court decision in State v Blake occurred on February 25, 2021. MAIN OUTCOME/UNASSIGNED:Monthly fatal drug overdose rates. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Following the implementation of Measure 110, absolute monthly rate differences between Oregon and its synthetic control were not statistically significant (probability = 0.26). The average rate difference post Measure 110 was 0.268 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population. Following the implementation of the policy change in Washington, the absolute monthly rate differences between Washington and synthetic Washington were not statistically significant (probability = 0.06). The average rate difference post Blake was 0.112 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:This study found no evidence of an association between legal changes that removed or substantially reduced criminal penalties for drug possession in Oregon and Washington and fatal drug overdose rates. Additional research could examine potential other outcomes as well as longer-term associations with fatal drug overdose overall and across racial and ethnic groups.

BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on utilization of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) among patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) and chronic pain is unclear. METHODS:We analyzed New York State (NYS) Medicaid claims from pre-pandemic (August 2019-February 2020) and pandemic (March 2020-December 2020) periods for beneficiaries with and without chronic pain. We calculated monthly proportions of patients with OUD diagnoses in 6-month-lookback windows utilizing MOUD and proportions of treatment-naïve patients initiating MOUD. We used interrupted time series to assess changes in MOUD utilization and initiation rates by medication type and by race/ethnicity. RESULTS:Among 20,785 patients with OUD and chronic pain, 49.3% utilized MOUD (versus 60.3% without chronic pain). The pandemic did not affect utilization in either group but briefly disrupted initiation among patients with chronic pain (β=-0.009; 95% CI [-0.015, -0.002]). Overall MOUD utilization was not affected by the pandemic for any race/ethnicity but opioid treatment program (OTP) utilization was briefly disrupted for non-Hispanic Black individuals (β=-0.007 [-0.013, -0.001]). The pandemic disrupted overall MOUD initiation in non-Hispanic Black (β=-0.007 [-0.012, -0.002]) and Hispanic individuals (β=-0.010 [-0.019, -0.001]). CONCLUSIONS:Adults with chronic pain who were enrolled in NYS Medicaid before the COVID-19 pandemic had lower MOUD utilization than those without chronic pain. MOUD initiation was briefly disrupted, with disparities especially in racial/ethnic minority groups. Flexible MOUD policy initiatives may have maintained overall treatment utilization, but disparities in initiation and care continuity remain for patients with chronic pain, and particularly for racial/ethnic minoritized subgroups.

OBJECTIVE:The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to healthcare disruptions for patients with chronic pain. Following initial disruptions, national policies were enacted to expand access to long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) for chronic pain and opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment services, which may have modified risk of opioid overdose. We examined associations between LTOT and/or OUD with fatal and non-fatal opioid overdoses, and whether the pandemic moderated overdose risk in these groups. METHODS:We analyzed New York State Medicaid claims data (3/1/2019-12/31/20) of patients with chronic pain (N = 236,391). We used generalized estimating equations models to assess associations between LTOT and/or OUD (neither LTOT or OUD [ref], LTOT only, OUD only, and LTOT and OUD) and the pandemic (03/2020-12/2020) with opioid overdose. RESULTS:The pandemic did not significantly (ns) affect opioid overdose among patients with LTOT and/or OUD. While patients with LTOT (vs. no LTOT) had a slight increase in opioid overdose during the pandemic (pre-pandemic: aOR:1.65, 95% CI:1.05, 2.57; pandemic: aOR:2.43, CI:1.75,3.37, ns), patients with OUD had a slightly attenuated odds of overdose during the pandemic (pre-pandemic: aOR:5.65, CI:4.73, 6.75; pandemic: aOR:5.16, CI:4.33, 6.14, ns). Patients with both LTOT and OUD also experienced a slightly reduced odds of opioid overdose during the pandemic (pre-pandemic: aOR:5.82, CI:3.58, 9.44; pandemic: aOR:3.70, CI:2.11, 6.50, ns). CONCLUSIONS:Findings demonstrated no significant effect of the pandemic on opioid overdose among people with chronic pain and LTOT and/or OUD, suggesting pandemic policies expanding access to chronic pain and OUD treatment services may have mitigated the risk of opioid overdose.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Approximately 1800 opioid treatment programs (OTPs) in the US dispense methadone to upwards of 400,000 patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) annually, operating under longstanding highly restrictive guidelines. OTPs were granted novel flexibilities beginning March 15, 2020, allowing for reduced visit frequency and extended take-home doses to minimize COVID exposure with great variation across states and sites. We sought to use electronic health records to compare retention in treatment, opioid use, and adverse events among patients newly entering methadone maintenance in the post-reform period in comparison with year-ago, unexposed, controls. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Retrospective observational cohort study across 9 OTPs, geographically dispersed, in the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA) Clinical Trials Network. Newly enrolled patients between April 15 and October 14, 2020 (post-COVID, reform period) v. March 15-September 14, 2019 (pre-COVID, control period) were assessed. The primary outcome was 6-month retention. Secondary outcomes were opioid use and adverse events including emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and overdose. FINDINGS/UNASSIGNED: INTERPRETATION/UNASSIGNED:Policies allowing for extended take-home schedules were not associated with worse retention or adverse events despite slightly elevated rates of measured opioid use while in care. Relaxed guidelines were not associated with measurable increased harms and findings could inform future studies with prospective trials. FUNDING/UNASSIGNED:USDHHSNIDACTNUG1DA013035-15.

BACKGROUND:Chronic pain has been extensively explored as a risk factor for opioid misuse, resulting in increased focus on opioid prescribing practices for individuals with such conditions. Physical disability sometimes co-occurs with chronic pain but may also represent an independent risk factor for opioid misuse. However, previous research has not disentangled whether disability contributes to risk independent of chronic pain. METHODS:Here, we estimate the independent and joint adjusted associations between having a physical disability and co-occurring chronic pain condition at time of Medicaid enrollment on subsequent 18-month risk of incident opioid use disorder (OUD) and non-fatal, unintentional opioid overdose among non-elderly, adult Medicaid beneficiaries (2016-2019). RESULTS:We find robust evidence that having a physical disability approximately doubles the risk of incident OUD or opioid overdose, and physical disability co-occurring with chronic pain increases the risks approximately sixfold as compared to having neither chronic pain nor disability. In absolute numbers, those with neither a physical disability nor chronic pain condition have a 1.8% adjusted risk of incident OUD over 18 months of follow-up, those with physical disability alone have an 2.9% incident risk, those with chronic pain alone have a 3.6% incident risk, and those with co-occurring physical disability and chronic pain have a 11.1% incident risk. CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest that those with a physical disability should receive increased attention from the medical and healthcare communities to reduce their risk of opioid misuse and attendant negative outcomes.

BACKGROUND:Identifying community characteristics associated with firearm assault could facilitate prevention. We investigated the effect of community firearm dealer and alcohol outlet densities on individual risk of firearm assault injury. METHODS:In this density-sampled case-control study of Californians, January 2005-September 2015, cases comprised all residents with a fatal or nonfatal firearm assault injury. For each month, we sampled controls from the state population in a 4:1 ratio with cases. Exposures were monthly densities of county-level pawn and nonpawn firearm dealers and ZIP code-level off-premises alcohol outlets and bars and pubs ("bars/pubs"). We used case-control-weighted G-computation to estimate risk differences (RD) statewide and among younger Black men, comparing observed exposure densities to hypothetical interventions setting these densities to low. We estimated additive interactions between firearm and alcohol retailer density. Secondary analyses examined interventions targeted to high exposure density or outcome burden areas. RESULTS:There were 67,850 cases and 268,122 controls. Observed (vs. low) densities of pawn firearm dealers and off-premises alcohol outlets were individually associated with elevated monthly risk of firearm assault per 100,000 people (RD pawn dealers : 0.06, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.08; RD off-premises outlets : 0.01, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03), but nonpawn firearm dealer and bar/pub density were not; models targeting only areas with the highest outcome burden were similar. Among younger Black men, estimates were larger. There was no interaction between firearm and alcohol retailer density. CONCLUSIONS:Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that limiting pawn firearm dealers and off-premises alcohol outlet densities can reduce interpersonal firearm violence.

BACKGROUND:Cannabis use disorder is associated with considerable comorbidity and impairment in functioning, and prevalence is increasing among adults with chronic pain. We aimed to assess the effect of introduction of medical cannabis laws (MCL) and recreational cannabis laws (RCL) on the increase in cannabis use disorder among patients in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA). METHODS:Data from patients with one or more primary care, emergency, or mental health visit to the VHA in 2005-19 were analysed using 15 repeated cross-sectional VHA electronic health record datasets (ie, one dataset per year). Patients in hospice or palliative care were excluded. Patients were stratified as having chronic pain or not using an American Pain Society taxonomy of painful medical conditions. We used staggered-adoption difference-in-difference analyses to estimate the role of MCL and RCL enactment in the increases in prevalence of diagnosed cannabis use disorder and associations with presence of chronic pain, accounting for the year that state laws were enacted. We did this by fitting a linear binomial regression model stratified by pain, with time-varying cannabis law status, fixed effects for state, categorical year, time-varying state-level sociodemographic covariates, and patient covariates (age group [18-34 years, 35-64 years, and 65-75 years], sex, and race and ethnicity). FINDINGS:Between 2005 and 2019, 3 234 382-4 579 994 patients were included per year. Among patients without pain in 2005, 5·1% were female, mean age was 58·3 (SD 12·6) years, and 75·7%, 15·6%, and 3·6% were White, Black, and Hispanic or Latino, respectively. In 2019, 9·3% were female, mean age was 56·7 (SD 15·2) years, and 68·1%, 18·2%, and 6·5% were White, Black, and Hispanic or Latino, respectively. Among patients with pain in 2005, 7·1% were female, mean age was 57·2 (SD 11·4) years, and 74·0%, 17·8%, and 3·9% were White, Black, and Hispanic or Latino, respectively. In 2019, 12·4% were female, mean age was 57·2 (SD 13·8) years, and 65·3%, 21·9%, and 7·0% were White, Black, and Hispanic or Latino, respectively. Among patients with chronic pain, enacting MCL led to a 0·135% (95% CI 0·118-0·153) absolute increase in cannabis use disorder prevalence, with 8·4% of the total increase in MCL-enacting states attributable to MCL. Enacting RCL led to a 0·188% (0·160-0·217) absolute increase in cannabis use disorder prevalence, with 11·5% of the total increase in RCL-enacting states attributable to RCL. In patients without chronic pain, enacting MCL and RCL led to smaller absolute increases in cannabis use disorder prevalence (MCL: 0·037% [0·027-0·048], 5·7% attributable to MCL; RCL: 0·042% [0·023-0·060], 6·0% attributable to RCL). Overall, associations of MCL and RCL with cannabis use disorder were greater in patients with chronic pain than in patients without chronic pain. INTERPRETATION:Increasing cannabis use disorder prevalence among patients with chronic pain following state legalisation is a public health concern, especially among older age groups. Given cannabis commercialisation and widespread public beliefs about its efficacy, clinical monitoring of cannabis use and discussion of the risk of cannabis use disorder among patients with chronic pain is warranted. FUNDING:NIDA grant R01DA048860, New York State Psychiatric Institute, and the VA Centers of Excellence in Substance Addiction Treatment and Education.

OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to examine trends in cannabis-positive urine drug screens (UDSs) among emergency department (ED) patients from 2008 to 2019 using data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system, and whether these trends differed by age group (18-34, 35-64, and 65-75 years), sex, and race, and ethnicity. METHOD:VHA electronic health records from 2008 to 2019 were used to identify the percentage of unique VHA patients seen each year at an ED, received a UDS, and screened positive for cannabis. Trends in cannabis-positive UDS were examined by age, race and ethnicity, and sex within age groups. RESULTS:Of the VHA ED patients with a UDS, the annual prevalence positive for cannabis increased from 16.42% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2019. The largest increases in cannabis-positive UDS were observed in the younger age groups. Male and female ED patients tested positive for cannabis at similar levels. Although the prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS was consistently highest among non-Hispanic Black patients, cannabis-positive UDS increased in all race and ethnicity groups. DISCUSSION:The increasing prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS supports the validity of previously observed population-level increases in cannabis use and cannabis use disorder from survey and administrative records. Time trends via UDS results provide additional support that previously documented increases in self-reported cannabis use and disorder from surveys and claims data are not spuriously due to changes in patient willingness to report use as it becomes more legalized, or due to greater clinical attention over time.