Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:Respiratory infections are associated with acute exacerbations of asthma and accompanying morbidity and mortality. In this study we explore inter-practice variations in respiratory infections in children with asthma and study the effect of practice-level factors on these variations. DESIGN/METHODS:Cross-sectional study. SETTING/METHODS:We analysed data from 164 general practices in the Royal College of General PractitionersResearch and Surveillance Centresentinel network in England. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Children 5-12 years. INTERVENTIONS/METHODS:None. In this observational study, we used regression analysis to explore the impact of practice-level determinants on the number of respiratory infections in children with asthma. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:We describe the distribution of childhood asthma and the determinants of upper/lower respiratory tract infections in these children. RESULTS:83.5% (137/164) practices were in urban locations; the mean number of general practitioners per practice was 7; and the mean duration since qualification 19.7 years. We found almost 10-fold difference in the rate of asthma (1.5-11.8 per 100 children) and 50-fold variation in respiratory infection rates between practices. Larger practices with larger lists of asthmatic children had greater rates of respiratory infections among these children. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:We showed that structural/environmental variables are consistent predictors of a range of respiratory infections among children with asthma. However, contradictory results between measures of practice clinical care show that a purely structural explanation for variability in respiratory infections is limited. Further research is needed to understand how the practice factors influence individual risk behaviours relevant to respiratory infections.

According to the U.S. census Bureau, close to 20% of the U.S. population speaks a language other than English at home. Home health care (HHC) patients who speak English less than very well or have limited English proficiency (LEP) are at an increased risk for medication mismanagement and serious health consequences. The purpose of this study was to examine if there were differences in medication management between English-speaking patients and patients with LEP receiving HHC services. Data for this cross-sectional observation study were collected from 2010 to 2014. Medication management was measured by two items in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services"“mandated Outcomes Assessment Information Set (OASIS). All patients in the database who were taking medications and had a valid admission and discharge assessment from HHC were included in the analysis. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with a marginal structural model was used to address potential imbalances in observed patient characteristics when estimating the effect of having LEP or being an English-speaking HHC patient on changes in medication management over the course of a HHC episode. Estimates from marginal structural model with inverse probability weighting indicate that being LEP was associated with less improvement in medication management and increased likelihood of getting worse over the course of a HHC episode. This study is one of the first to demonstrate that patients with LEP experience disparities in medication management when compared to English-speaking patients in HHC.

The mechanisms underlying the adverse cardiovascular effects of increased salt intake are incompletely understood, but parallel increases in serum sodium concentration may be of importance. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to investigate the relationship between serum sodium, hypertension and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Routinely collected primary care data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre were analysed. A total of 231,545 individuals with a measurement of serum sodium concentration at baseline were included. Exclusion criteria were: age < 40 years; abnormal serum sodium; diabetes mellitus; prior CVD event; stage 5 chronic kidney disease; and liver cirrhosis. The primary outcome was incident CVD (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke, transient ischaemic attack or new heart failure diagnosis) over 5 years. There was a 'J-shaped' relationship between serum sodium concentration and primary cardiovascular events that was independent of established risk factors, medications and other serum electrolytes. The lowest cardiovascular risk was found with a serum sodium between 141 and 143 mmol/l. Higher serum sodium was associated with increased risk in hypertensive individuals, whereas lower concentrations were associated with increased risk in all individuals. Therefore, alterations in serum sodium concentration may be a useful indicator of CVD risk. Higher serum sodium could have a direct effect on the vasculature, particularly in hypertensive individuals. Lower serum sodium may be a reflection of complex volume and neuroendocrine changes.

BACKGROUND:Hypertension is a major cause of preventable disability and death globally and affects more than one in four adults in England. Unwarranted variation is variation in access, quality, outcome or value which is unexplained by differences in the condition or patient characteristics and which reduces quality and efficiency. Distinguishing unwarranted from variation due to clinical, organisational or patient factors can be challenging. We carried out this study to explore inter-practice variation in the diagnosis and management of hypertension in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network database, a large, representative surveillance database. METHODS AND FINDING/UNASSIGNED:We carried out a cross-sectional study using primary care data extracted from the electronic health records of 1,271,419 adults registered at RCGP RSC general practices on 31st December 2016. Logistic regression was used to indirectly standardise practice-level hypertension prevalence and control against the RCGP RSC population, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, co-morbidity, NHS region and practice size. Inter-practice variation was demonstrated using funnel plots with 95% and 99.8% control limits. The prevalence of detected hypertension was 18.4% (95% CI 18.4-18.5), n = 234,165. Uncontrolled hypertension was present in 146,553 of 196,052 individuals, 25.2% (25.1-25.4), in whom blood pressure had been recorded in the previous year. Hypertension management varied markedly between practices with a three-fold difference in prevalence, 13.5-38.4%, and a four-fold difference in the proportion of uncontrolled hypertension, 11.8-47.9%. Despite adjustment for sociodemographic and practice characteristics funnel plots demonstrated marked over-dispersion. CONCLUSIONS:Substantial variation in the prevalence of diagnosed hypertension and the management of hypertension was only partially explained by characteristics captured within a routine dataset. The over-dispersion suggests variation is not fully explained by these factors and that context, behaviour and processes of care delivery may contribute to variation. Routine data sources in isolation to not provide sufficient contextual data to diagnose the causes of variation.

BACKGROUND:The assessment of clinical guideline adherence for the evaluation of pulmonary embolism (PE) via computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) currently requires either labor-intensive, retrospective chart review or prospective collection of PE risk scores at the time of CTPA order. The recording of clinical data in a structured manner in the electronic health record (EHR) may make it possible to automate the calculation of a patient's PE risk classification and determine whether the CTPA order was guideline concordant. OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to measure the performance of automated, structured-data-only versions of the Wells and revised Geneva risk scores in emergency department encounters during which a CTPA was ordered. The hypothesis was that such an automated method would classify a patient's PE risk with high accuracy compared to manual chart review. METHODS:We developed automated, structured-data-only versions of the Wells and revised Geneva risk scores to classify 212 emergency department (ED) encounters during which a CTPA was performed as "PE Likely" or "PE Unlikely." We then combined these classifications with D-dimer ordering data to assess each encounter as guideline concordant or discordant. The accuracy of these automated classifications and assessments of guideline concordance were determined by comparing them to classifications and concordance based on the complete Wells and revised Geneva scores derived via abstractor manual chart review. RESULTS:The automatically derived Wells and revised Geneva risk classifications were 91.5% and 92% accurate compared to the manually determined classifications, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between guideline adherence calculated by the automated scores as compared to manual chart review (Wells: 70.8 vs. 75%, p = 0.33 | Revised Geneva: 65.6 vs. 66%, p = 0.92). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The Wells and revised Geneva score risk classifications can be approximated with high accuracy using automated extraction of structured EHR data elements in patients who received a CTPA. Combining these automated scores with D-dimer ordering data allows for the automated assessment of clinical guideline adherence for CTPA ordering in the emergency department, without the burden of manual chart review.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a highly transmissible condition. Determining characteristics of household transmission will facilitate development of prevention strategies and reduce the burden of this disease.We are carrying out this study to describe household transmission of medically attended AGE, and explore whether there is an increased incidence in households with young children. METHODS AND ANALYSIS/UNASSIGNED:This study used the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network, comprising data from 1 750 167 registered patients (August 2017 database). We conducted a novel analysis using a 'household key', to identify patients within the same household (n=811 027, mean 2.16 people). A 25-year repeated cross-sectional study will explore the incidence of medically attended AGE overall and then a 5-year retrospective cohort study will describe household transmission of AGE. The cross-sectional study will include clinical data for a 25-year period-1 January 1992 until the 31 December 2017. We will describe the incidence of AGE by age-band and gender, and trends in incidence. The 5-year study will use Poisson and quasi-Poisson regression to identify characteristics of individuals and households to predict medically attended AGE transmitted in the household. This will include whether the household contained a child under 5 years and the age category of the first index case (whether adult or child under 5 years). If there is overdispersion and zero-inflation we will compare results with negative binomial to handle these issues. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION/UNASSIGNED:All RCGP RSC data are pseudonymised at the point of data extraction. No personally identifiable data are required for this investigation. The protocol follows STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology guidelines (STROBE). The study results will be published in a peer-review journal, the dataset will be available to other researchers.

BACKGROUND:Hospitalization and readmission rates have decreased in recent years, with the possible consequence that hospitals are increasingly filled with high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE:We studied whether readmission reduction has affected the risk profile of hospitalized patients and whether readmission reduction was similarly realized among hospitalizations with low, medium, and high risk of readmissions. DESIGN/METHODS:Retrospective study of hospitalizations between January 2009 and June 2015. PATIENTS/METHODS:Hospitalized fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, categorized into 1 of 5 specialty cohorts used for the publicly reported hospital-wide readmission measure. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Each hospitalization was assigned a predicted risk of 30-day, unplanned readmission using a risk-adjusted model similar to publicly reported measures. Trends in monthly mean predicted risk for each cohort and trends in monthly observed to expected readmission for hospitalizations in the lowest 20%, middle 60%, and highest 20% of risk of readmission were assessed using time series models. RESULTS:Of 47,288,961 hospitalizations, 16.2% (n = 7,642,161) were followed by an unplanned readmission within 30 days. We found that predicted risk of readmission increased by 0.24% (P = .03) and 0.13% (P = .004) per year for hospitalizations in the surgery/ gynecology and neurology cohorts, respectively. We found no significant increase in predicted risk for hospitalizations in the medicine (0.12%, P = .12), cardiovascular (0.32%, P = .07), or cardiorespiratory (0.03%, P = .55) cohorts. In each cohort, observed to expected readmission rates steadily declined, and at similar rates for patients at low, medium, and high risk of readmission. CONCLUSIONS:Hospitals have been effective at reducing readmissions across a range of patient risk strata and clinical conditions. The risk of readmission for hospitalized patients has increased for 2 of 5 clinical cohorts.

Background: Catheter ablation has become an increasingly common elective therapy for symptomatic atrial fbrillation (AF). Few data are available regarding outcomes of urgent AF ablation performed during AF related hospital admission, and the impact of these procedures on healthcare utilization. Objective: To evaluate patient characteristics, procedural outcomes, and impact on healthcare utilization in patients undergoing urgent AF ablation. Methods: Procedural outcomes of patients undergoing urgent frst-time AF ablation during an AF related hospital admission between 1/2014 and 8/2017 at a single tertiary care medical center were compared to those of 2:1 matched control patients undergoing frst-time elective AF ablation. An inverse probability weighted marginal structural model was constructed and the weighted means of the average hospital days and number of hospital visits in the six-months post ablation were compared. Results: 25 patients (1% of frst-time AF ablations) underwent an urgent procedure. There were no major procedural complications in either group. Incidence of arrhythmia recurrence within one year was similar in urgent and elective patients (20% vs. 18%, respectively, p=0.85). Urgent ablation patients had a greater number of hospital utilization days in the 6-months pre-ablation (mean 8.9+/-4.5 vs 2.6+/-1.1, p<.001) and a similar number of hospital utilization days in the 6-months post-ablation (1.8+/-4.5 vs 0.59+/- 1.07, p=.05) The marginal structural model of the change in number of hospital visits due to being in the urgent ablation group was-0.924 (-1.43 to-0.41; P <0.001). Conclusion: Urgent ablation for treatment resistant, symptomatic AF is feasible and safe with procedural outcomes were similar to those of elective AF ablation. There is and increased rate of healthcare utilization in prior to ablation in the urgent group, and a statistically signifcant reduction in healthcare utilization following urgent AF ablation. Defning the cost-effectiveness of and optimal patient selection for urgent ablation requires further investigation

BACKGROUND:The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre comprises more than 150 general practices, with a combined population of more than 1.5 million, contributing to UK and European public health surveillance and research. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this paper was to report gender differences in the presentation of infectious and respiratory conditions in children and young adults. METHODS:Disease incidence data were used to test the hypothesis that boys up to puberty present more with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and asthma. Incidence rates were reported for infectious conditions in children and young adults by gender. We controlled for ethnicity, deprivation, and consultation rates. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI, P values, and probability of presenting. RESULTS:Boys presented more with LRTI, largely due to acute bronchitis. The OR of males consulting was greater across the youngest 3 age bands (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.35-1.87; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). Allergic rhinitis and asthma had a higher OR of presenting in boys aged 5 to 14 years (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.37-1.68; OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) had lower odds of presenting in boys, especially those older than 15 years. The probability of presenting showed different patterns for LRTI, URTI, and atopic conditions. CONCLUSIONS:Boys younger than 15 years have greater odds of presenting with LRTI and atopic conditions, whereas girls may present more with URTI and UTI. These differences may provide insights into disease mechanisms and for health service planning.