Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:The assessment of clinical guideline adherence for the evaluation of pulmonary embolism (PE) via computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) currently requires either labor-intensive, retrospective chart review or prospective collection of PE risk scores at the time of CTPA order. The recording of clinical data in a structured manner in the electronic health record (EHR) may make it possible to automate the calculation of a patient's PE risk classification and determine whether the CTPA order was guideline concordant. OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to measure the performance of automated, structured-data-only versions of the Wells and revised Geneva risk scores in emergency department encounters during which a CTPA was ordered. The hypothesis was that such an automated method would classify a patient's PE risk with high accuracy compared to manual chart review. METHODS:We developed automated, structured-data-only versions of the Wells and revised Geneva risk scores to classify 212 emergency department (ED) encounters during which a CTPA was performed as "PE Likely" or "PE Unlikely." We then combined these classifications with D-dimer ordering data to assess each encounter as guideline concordant or discordant. The accuracy of these automated classifications and assessments of guideline concordance were determined by comparing them to classifications and concordance based on the complete Wells and revised Geneva scores derived via abstractor manual chart review. RESULTS:The automatically derived Wells and revised Geneva risk classifications were 91.5% and 92% accurate compared to the manually determined classifications, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between guideline adherence calculated by the automated scores as compared to manual chart review (Wells: 70.8 vs. 75%, p = 0.33 | Revised Geneva: 65.6 vs. 66%, p = 0.92). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The Wells and revised Geneva score risk classifications can be approximated with high accuracy using automated extraction of structured EHR data elements in patients who received a CTPA. Combining these automated scores with D-dimer ordering data allows for the automated assessment of clinical guideline adherence for CTPA ordering in the emergency department, without the burden of manual chart review.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a highly transmissible condition. Determining characteristics of household transmission will facilitate development of prevention strategies and reduce the burden of this disease.We are carrying out this study to describe household transmission of medically attended AGE, and explore whether there is an increased incidence in households with young children. METHODS AND ANALYSIS/UNASSIGNED:This study used the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network, comprising data from 1 750 167 registered patients (August 2017 database). We conducted a novel analysis using a 'household key', to identify patients within the same household (n=811 027, mean 2.16 people). A 25-year repeated cross-sectional study will explore the incidence of medically attended AGE overall and then a 5-year retrospective cohort study will describe household transmission of AGE. The cross-sectional study will include clinical data for a 25-year period-1 January 1992 until the 31 December 2017. We will describe the incidence of AGE by age-band and gender, and trends in incidence. The 5-year study will use Poisson and quasi-Poisson regression to identify characteristics of individuals and households to predict medically attended AGE transmitted in the household. This will include whether the household contained a child under 5 years and the age category of the first index case (whether adult or child under 5 years). If there is overdispersion and zero-inflation we will compare results with negative binomial to handle these issues. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION/UNASSIGNED:All RCGP RSC data are pseudonymised at the point of data extraction. No personally identifiable data are required for this investigation. The protocol follows STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology guidelines (STROBE). The study results will be published in a peer-review journal, the dataset will be available to other researchers.

BACKGROUND:Hospitalization and readmission rates have decreased in recent years, with the possible consequence that hospitals are increasingly filled with high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE:We studied whether readmission reduction has affected the risk profile of hospitalized patients and whether readmission reduction was similarly realized among hospitalizations with low, medium, and high risk of readmissions. DESIGN/METHODS:Retrospective study of hospitalizations between January 2009 and June 2015. PATIENTS/METHODS:Hospitalized fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, categorized into 1 of 5 specialty cohorts used for the publicly reported hospital-wide readmission measure. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Each hospitalization was assigned a predicted risk of 30-day, unplanned readmission using a risk-adjusted model similar to publicly reported measures. Trends in monthly mean predicted risk for each cohort and trends in monthly observed to expected readmission for hospitalizations in the lowest 20%, middle 60%, and highest 20% of risk of readmission were assessed using time series models. RESULTS:Of 47,288,961 hospitalizations, 16.2% (n = 7,642,161) were followed by an unplanned readmission within 30 days. We found that predicted risk of readmission increased by 0.24% (P = .03) and 0.13% (P = .004) per year for hospitalizations in the surgery/ gynecology and neurology cohorts, respectively. We found no significant increase in predicted risk for hospitalizations in the medicine (0.12%, P = .12), cardiovascular (0.32%, P = .07), or cardiorespiratory (0.03%, P = .55) cohorts. In each cohort, observed to expected readmission rates steadily declined, and at similar rates for patients at low, medium, and high risk of readmission. CONCLUSIONS:Hospitals have been effective at reducing readmissions across a range of patient risk strata and clinical conditions. The risk of readmission for hospitalized patients has increased for 2 of 5 clinical cohorts.

Background: Catheter ablation has become an increasingly common elective therapy for symptomatic atrial fbrillation (AF). Few data are available regarding outcomes of urgent AF ablation performed during AF related hospital admission, and the impact of these procedures on healthcare utilization. Objective: To evaluate patient characteristics, procedural outcomes, and impact on healthcare utilization in patients undergoing urgent AF ablation. Methods: Procedural outcomes of patients undergoing urgent frst-time AF ablation during an AF related hospital admission between 1/2014 and 8/2017 at a single tertiary care medical center were compared to those of 2:1 matched control patients undergoing frst-time elective AF ablation. An inverse probability weighted marginal structural model was constructed and the weighted means of the average hospital days and number of hospital visits in the six-months post ablation were compared. Results: 25 patients (1% of frst-time AF ablations) underwent an urgent procedure. There were no major procedural complications in either group. Incidence of arrhythmia recurrence within one year was similar in urgent and elective patients (20% vs. 18%, respectively, p=0.85). Urgent ablation patients had a greater number of hospital utilization days in the 6-months pre-ablation (mean 8.9+/-4.5 vs 2.6+/-1.1, p<.001) and a similar number of hospital utilization days in the 6-months post-ablation (1.8+/-4.5 vs 0.59+/- 1.07, p=.05) The marginal structural model of the change in number of hospital visits due to being in the urgent ablation group was-0.924 (-1.43 to-0.41; P <0.001). Conclusion: Urgent ablation for treatment resistant, symptomatic AF is feasible and safe with procedural outcomes were similar to those of elective AF ablation. There is and increased rate of healthcare utilization in prior to ablation in the urgent group, and a statistically signifcant reduction in healthcare utilization following urgent AF ablation. Defning the cost-effectiveness of and optimal patient selection for urgent ablation requires further investigation

BACKGROUND:The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre comprises more than 150 general practices, with a combined population of more than 1.5 million, contributing to UK and European public health surveillance and research. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this paper was to report gender differences in the presentation of infectious and respiratory conditions in children and young adults. METHODS:Disease incidence data were used to test the hypothesis that boys up to puberty present more with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and asthma. Incidence rates were reported for infectious conditions in children and young adults by gender. We controlled for ethnicity, deprivation, and consultation rates. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI, P values, and probability of presenting. RESULTS:Boys presented more with LRTI, largely due to acute bronchitis. The OR of males consulting was greater across the youngest 3 age bands (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.35-1.87; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). Allergic rhinitis and asthma had a higher OR of presenting in boys aged 5 to 14 years (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.37-1.68; OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) had lower odds of presenting in boys, especially those older than 15 years. The probability of presenting showed different patterns for LRTI, URTI, and atopic conditions. CONCLUSIONS:Boys younger than 15 years have greater odds of presenting with LRTI and atopic conditions, whereas girls may present more with URTI and UTI. These differences may provide insights into disease mechanisms and for health service planning.

BACKGROUND:Atrial fibrillation is the commonest arrhythmia which raises the risk of heart failure, thromboembolic stroke, morbidity and death. Pharmacological treatments of this condition are focused on heart rate control, rhythm control and reduction in risk of stroke. Selective ablation of cardiac tissues resulting in isolation of areas causing atrial fibrillation is another treatment strategy which can be delivered by two minimally invasive interventions: percutaneous catheter ablation and thoracoscopic surgical ablation. The main purpose of this trial is to compare the effectiveness and safety of these two interventions. METHODS/DESIGN/METHODS:Catheter Ablation versus Thoracoscopic Surgical Ablation in Long Standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation (CASA-AF) is a prospective, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial within three NHS tertiary cardiovascular centres specialising in treatment of atrial fibrillation. Eligible adults (n = 120) with symptomatic, long-standing, persistent atrial fibrillation will be randomly allocated to either catheter ablation or thoracoscopic ablation in a 1:1 ratio. Pre-determined lesion sets will be delivered in each treatment arm with confirmation of appropriate conduction block. All patients will have an implantable loop recorder (ILR) inserted subcutaneously immediately following ablation to enable continuous heart rhythm monitoring for at least 12 months. The devices will be programmed to detect episodes of atrial fibrillation and atrial tachycardia ≥ 30 s in duration. The patients will be followed for 12 months, completing appropriate clinical assessments and questionnaires every 3 months. The ILR data will be wirelessly transmitted daily and evaluated every month for the duration of the follow-up. The primary endpoint in the study is freedom from atrial fibrillation and atrial tachycardia at the end of the follow-up period. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The CASA-AF Trial is a National Institute for Health Research-funded study that will provide first-class evidence on the comparative efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of thoracoscopic surgical ablation and conventional percutaneous catheter ablation for long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation. In addition, the results of the trial will provide information on the effects on patients' quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION/BACKGROUND:ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN18250790 . Registered on 24 April 2015.

Aims: There are scant comparative data quantifying the risk of infective endocarditis (IE) and associated mortality in individuals with predisposing cardiac conditions. Methods and results: English hospital admissions for conditions associated with increased IE risk were followed for 5 years to quantify subsequent IE admissions. The 5-year risk of IE or dying during an IE admission was calculated for each condition and compared with the entire English population as a control. Infective endocarditis incidence in the English population was 36.2/million/year. In comparison, patients with a previous history of IE had the highest risk of recurrence or dying during an IE admission [odds ratio (OR) 266 and 215, respectively]. These risks were also high in patients with prosthetic valves (OR 70 and 62) and previous valve repair (OR 77 and 60). Patients with congenital valve anomalies (currently considered 'moderate risk') had similar levels of risk (OR 66 and 57) and risks in other 'moderate-risk' conditions were not much lower. Congenital heart conditions (CHCs) repaired with prosthetic material (currently considered 'high risk' for 6 months following surgery) had lower risk than all 'moderate-risk' conditions-even in the first 6 months. Infective endocarditis risk was also significant in patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices. Conclusion: These data confirm the high IE risk of patients with a history of previous IE, valve replacement, or repair. However, IE risk in some 'moderate-risk' patients was similar to that of several 'high-risk' conditions and higher than repaired CHC. Guidelines for the risk stratification of conditions predisposing to IE may require re-evaluation.

OBJECTIVE:To assess the association between anticoagulation, ischaemic stroke, gastrointestinal and cerebral haemorrhage, and all cause mortality in older people with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease. DESIGN/METHODS:Propensity matched, population based, retrospective cohort analysis from January 2006 through December 2016. SETTING/METHODS:The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database population of almost 2.73 million patients from 110 general practices across England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:, calculated using the chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration creatinine equation. Patients with a previous diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or receiving anticoagulation in the preceding 120 days were excluded, as were patients requiring dialysis and recipients of renal transplants. INTERVENTION/METHODS:Receipt of an anticoagulant prescription within 60 days of atrial fibrillation diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES/METHODS:Ischaemic stroke, cerebral or gastrointestinal haemorrhage, and all cause mortality. RESULTS:6977 patients with chronic kidney disease and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were identified, of whom 2434 were on anticoagulants within 60 days of diagnosis and 4543 were not. 2434 pairs were matched using propensity scores by exposure to anticoagulant or none and followed for a median of 506 days. The crude rates for ischaemic stroke and haemorrhage were 4.6 and 1.2 after taking anticoagulants and 1.5 and 0.4 in patients who were not taking anticoagulant per 100 person years, respectively. The hazard ratios for ischaemic stroke, haemorrhage, and all cause mortality for those on anticoagulants were 2.60 (95% confidence interval 2.00 to 3.38), 2.42 (1.44 to 4.05), and 0.82 (0.74 to 0.91) compared with those who received no anticoagulation. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Giving anticoagulants to older people with concomitant atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease was associated with an increased rate of ischaemic stroke and haemorrhage but a paradoxical lowered rate of all cause mortality. Careful consideration should be given before starting anticoagulants in older people with chronic kidney disease who develop atrial fibrillation. There remains an urgent need for adequately powered randomised trials in this population to explore these findings and to provide clarity on correct clinical management.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalized medical patients undergoing transition of care by house staff teams at the end of a ward rotation are associated with an increased risk of mortality, yet best practices surrounding this transition are lacking. AIM: To assess the impact of a warm handoff protocol for end-of-rotation care transitions. SETTING: A large, university-based internal medicine residency using three different training sites. PARTICIPANTS: PGY-2 and PGY-3 internal medicine residents. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION: Implementation of a warm handoff protocol whereby the incoming and outgoing residents meet at the hospital to sign out in-person and jointly round at the bedside on sicker patients using a checklist. PROGRAM EVALUATION: An eight-question survey completed by 60 of 99 eligible residents demonstrated that 85% of residents perceived warm handoffs to be safer for patients (p < 0.001), while 98% felt warm handoffs improved their knowledge and comfort level of patients on day 1 of an inpatient rotation (p < 0.001) as compared to prior handoff techniques. Finally, 88% felt warm handoffs were worthwhile despite requiring additional time (p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: A warm handoff protocol represents a novel strategy to potentially mitigate the known risks associated with end-of-rotation care transitions. Additional studies analyzing patient outcomes will be needed to assess the impact of this strategy.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Determine timing of risk of readmissions within 30 days among patients first discharged to a skilled nursing facilities (SNF) after heart failure hospitalization and subsequently discharged home. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with SNF stays of 30 days or less following discharge from a heart failure hospitalization. Patients were followed for 30 days following discharge from SNF. We categorized patients based on SNF length of stay (LOS): 1-6 days, 7-13 days, 14-30 days. We then fit a piecewise exponential Bayesian model with the outcome as time to readmission after discharge from SNF for each group. Our event of interest was unplanned readmission; death and planned readmissions were considered as competing risks. Our model examined 2 different time intervals following discharge from SNF: 0-3 days post SNF discharge and 4-30 days post SNF discharge. We reported the hazard rate (credible interval) of readmission for each time interval. We examined all Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients 65 and older admitted from July 2012 to June 2015 with a principal discharge diagnosis of HF, based on methods adopted by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) for hospital quality measurement. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Our study included 67,585 HF hospitalizations discharged to SNF and subsequently discharged home [median age, 84 years (IQR; 78-89); female, 61.0%]; 13,257 (19.2%) were discharged with home care, 54,328 (80.4%) without. Median length of SNF admission was 17 days (IQR; 11-22). In total, 16,333 (24.2%) SNF discharges to home were readmitted within 30 days of SNF discharge; median time to readmission was 9 days (IQR; 3-18). The hazard rate of readmission for each group was significantly increased on days 0-3 after discharge from SNF compared with days 4-30 after discharge from SNF. In addition, the hazard rate of readmission during the first 0-3 days after discharge from SNF decreased as the LOS in SNF increased. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The hazard rate of readmission after SNF discharge following heart failure hospitalization is highest during the first 6 days home. Length of stay at SNF also has an effect on risk of readmission immediately after discharge from SNF; patients with a longer length of stay in SNF were less likely to be readmitted in the first 3 days after discharge from SNF.