Faculty Bibliography

Developing real-world evidence from electronic health records (EHR) is vital to advance kidney transplantation (KT). We assessed the feasibility of studying KT using the Epic Cosmos aggregated EHR dataset, which includes 274 million unique individuals cared for in 238 U.S. health systems, by comparing it with the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). We identified 69,418 KT recipients transplanted between January 2014 and December 2022 in Cosmos (39.4% of all US KT transplants during this period). Demographics and clinical characteristics of recipients captured in Cosmos were consistent with the overall SRTR cohort. Survival estimates were generally comparable, although there were some differences in long-term survival. At 7 years post-transplant, patient survival was 80.4% in Cosmos and 77.8% in SRTR. Multivariable Cox regression showed consistent associations between clinical factors and mortality in both cohorts, with minor discrepancies in the associations between death and both age and race. In summary, Cosmos provides a reliable platform for KT research, allowing EHR-level clinical granularity not available with either the transplant registry or healthcare claims. Consequently, Cosmos will enable novel analyses to improve our understanding of KT management on a national scale.

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) have heightened risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes due to immunosuppression and medical comorbidity. We quantified the burden of COVID-19 mortality in US SOTRs. A sample of deaths documented in the US solid organ transplant registry from June 2020 through December 2022 were linked to the National Death Index to identify COVID-19 deaths and weighted to represent all SOTR deaths during the study period. Among 505,757 SOTRs, 57,575 deaths occurred and based on the linkage, 12,396 (21.5%) were due to COVID-19. COVID-19 mortality was higher in males (mortality rate ratio [MRR]: 1.13), SOTRs aged 65 and older (MRR: 1.50 in ages 65-74 vs. ages 55-64), and non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic SOTRs (MRRs: 1.55 and 1.79 vs. non-Hispanic White SOTRs). Kidney and lung recipients had the highest COVID-19 mortality, followed by heart, then liver recipients. COVID-19 mortality also varied over time and across US states. Overall, SOTRs had 7-fold increased risk of COVID-19 death compared to the US general population. SOTRs comprised 0.13% of the US population but accounted for 1.46% of all US COVID-19 deaths. SOTRs experience greatly elevated COVID-19 mortality. Clinicians should continue to prioritize COVID-19 prevention and treatment in this high-risk population.

Since 2021, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network has reported a nearly 10-fold rise in out-of-sequence (OOS) kidney allocation, generating concern and halting development of continuous distribution policies. We report contemporary (2022-2023) practice patterns in OOS allocation using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data. We examined in sequence vs OOS donors with multivariable logistic regression and skipped vs OOS-accepting recipients with conditional logistic regression. Nearly 20% of kidney placements were OOS, varying from 0% to 43% acsoss organ procurement organizations; the 5 highest OOS-organ procurement organizations accounted for 29% of all OOS. Of OOS kidneys, 33% were declined ≥100 times in the standard allocation sequence and 51% were declined by ≥10 centers before OOS allocation began; 4.5% were made without any in-sequence declines. Nearly, all OOS offers were open offers. OOS kidneys were more likely to be from female, Black, older, donation after cardiac death, hypertensive, diabetic, and elevated creatinine donors. Candidates receiving OOS kidneys were more likely female, Asian, and older than skipped candidates. Higher-volume centers and centers with more White, fewer Hispanic, and more educated waiting list patients underwent transplantation disproportionately with more OOS kidneys. These findings suggest that the current, highly variable, discretionary use of OOS might exacerbate disparities, yet the impact of OOS on organ utilization cannot be determined with data now collected.

Graft failure and recipient death with functioning graft are important competing outcomes after kidney transplantation. Risk prediction models typically censor for the competing outcome thereby overestimating the cumulative incidence. The magnitude of this overestimation is not well described in real-world transplant data. This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from the European Collaborative Transplant Study (n = 125 250) and from the American Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 190 258). Separate cause-specific hazard models using donor and recipient age as continuous predictors were developed for graft failure and recipient death. The hazard of graft failure increased quadratically with increasing donor age and decreased decaying with increasing recipient age. The hazard of recipient death increased linearly with increasing donor and recipient age. The cumulative incidence overestimation due to competing risk-censoring was largest in high-risk populations for both outcomes (old donors/recipients), sometimes amounting to 8.4 and 18.8 percentage points for graft failure and recipient death, respectively. In our illustrative model for posttransplant risk prediction, the absolute risk of graft failure and death is overestimated when censoring for the competing event, mainly in older donors and recipients. Prediction models for absolute risks should treat graft failure and death as competing events.

BACKGROUND:Despite excellent outcomes of heart transplants from hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive donors (D+), many candidates are not listed to even consider HCV D+ offers. METHODS:Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified adult (age ≥18 years) heart transplant candidates prevalent on the waitlist between 2018 and March 2023. We compared the likelihood of waitlist mortality or heart transplant by candidate willingness to consider HCV D+ offers using competing risk regression. RESULTS:We identified 19,415 heart transplant candidates, 68.9% of whom were willing to consider HCV D+ offers. Candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers had a 37% lower risk of waitlist mortality (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.70; P < .001) than candidates not willing to consider HCV D+ offers, after adjustment for covariates and center-level clustering. Over the same period, heart transplant candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers had a 21% higher likelihood of receiving a transplant (SHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.7-1.26; P < .001). As a result, among candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers, 74.9% received a transplant and 6.1% died/deteriorated after 3 years, compared to 68.3% and 9.1%, respectively, of candidates not willing to consider HCV D+ offers. Lower waitlist mortality also was observed on subgroup analyses of candidates on temporary and durable mechanical circulatory support. CONCLUSIONS:Willingness to consider HCV D+ heart offers was associated with a 37% lower risk of waitlist mortality and a 21% higher likelihood of receiving a transplant. We urge providers to encourage candidates to list as being willing to consider offers from donors with hepatitis C to optimize their waitlist outcomes and access to transplantation.

BACKGROUND:In recent years, changes to US organ allocation have aimed to improve equity and accessibility across regions. The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network plans to adopt continuous liver distribution, prioritizing candidates based on a weighted composite allocation score (CAS) incorporating proximity, ABO types, medical urgency, and pediatric priority. The Liver Committee has requested research on CAS variations that account for geographical heterogenicity. METHODS:We describe a method for designing a geographically heterogeneous CAS with targeted broader sharing (CAS-TBS) to balance the highly variable geographic distributions of liver transplant listings and liver donations. CAS-TBS assigns each donor hospital to either broader sharing or nearby sharing, adjusting donor-candidate distance allocation points accordingly. RESULTS:We found that to reduce geographic disparity in the median Model for End-stage Liver Disease at transplant (MMaT), >75% of livers recovered in regions 2 and 10 should be distributed with broader sharing, whereas 95% of livers recovered in regions 5 and 1 should be distributed with nearby sharing. In a 3-y simulation of liver allocation, CAS-TBS decreased MMaT by 2.1 points in high-MMaT areas such as region 5 while increasing MMaT only by 0.65 points in low-MMaT areas such as region 3. CAS-TBS significantly decreased median transport distance from 202 to 167 nautical miles under acuity circles and decreased waitlist deaths. CONCLUSIONS:Our CAS-TBS design methodology could be applied to design geographically heterogeneous allocation scores that reflect transplant community values and priorities within the continuous distribution project of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. In our simulations, the incremental benefit of CAS-TBS over CAS was modest.

BACKGROUND:HLA-DQ mismatch has been identified as a predictor of de novo donor-specific HLA antibody formation and antibody-mediated rejection. There are insufficient data to guide the incorporation of DQ mismatch into organ allocation decisions. METHODS:We used a retrospective longitudinal cohort of adult living donor kidney transplant recipients from 11 centers across the United States for whom high-resolution class II typing was available. HLA-DQαβ heterodimer allele mismatch was quantified for all donor-recipient pairs, and outcome data were obtained through linkage with the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. RESULTS:We studied 3916 donor-recipient pairs. Recipient characteristics were notable for a median age of 51 (38-61) y, primarily unsensitized, with 74.5% of the cohort having 0% calculated panel-reactive antibody, and 60.4% with private insurance, for a median follow-up time of 5.86 y. We found that the HLA-DQαβ allele and HLA-DR antigen mismatch were each individually associated with an increased hazard of all-cause graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] DQ = 1.03 1.14 1.28; aHR DR = 1.03 1.15 1.328), death-censored graft failure (aHR DQ =1.01 1.19 1.40; aHR DR = 0.099 1.18 1.39), and rejection. Having 2 HLA-DQαβ allele mismatches further increased the hazard of rejection even when controlling for HLA-DR mismatch (aHR 1.03 1.68 2.74). CONCLUSIONS:HLA-DQαβ allele mismatch predicted allograft rejection even when controlling for HLA-DR antigen mismatch and were both independently associated with increased risk of graft failure or rejection in adult living kidney transplant recipients. Given the strong burden of disease arising from the HLA-DQ antibody formation, we suggest that HLA-DQαβ should be prioritized over HLA-DR in donor selection.

BACKGROUND:Pretransplant functional, motor, cognitive, and academic deficits are common in pediatric patients requiring heart transplantation (HT); some persist post-HT. We assessed the association between these quality of life (QoL) deficits and post-HT outcomes. METHODS:Using SRTR data 2008-2023, we evaluated the functional, motor, cognitive, and academic status of pediatric HT recipients from listing to 15 years post-HT. We compared all-cause graft survival among patients with vs. without pre-HT deficits using Cox regressions. Among patients with a functioning graft at 1 year, we assessed the association between deficits at that time and subsequent graft failure. RESULTS:, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Pediatric HT recipients with decreased functional status are at higher risk for graft failure and mortality. These patients may benefit from early intervention aimed at improving functional status.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:Coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 has likely impacted accessibility to transplantation services among older adults (age ≥65 years). We quantified the impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation access for older kidney-only candidates registered on the United States (US) kidney waitlist. STUDY DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:Retrospective analysis of registry data. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:57,222 older adults who were part of or added to the US kidney waitlist between January 1, 2016 and February 28, 2022, identified using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:Four COVID-19 waves and one nonwave period based on the national incidence of COVID-19 in the US (initial: March 15-May 30, 2020; winter 2020-2021: December 1, 2020-January 31, 2021; delta: August 1, 2021-September 30, 2021; omicron: December 1, 2021-February 28, 2022; nonwave: inter-wave periods). OUTCOMES/UNASSIGNED:Waitlist registrations, deceased-donor kidney transplants, living-donor kidney transplants, waitlist mortality, and waitlist removals due to deteriorating condition (hereafter referred to as removals). ANALYTICAL APPROACH/UNASSIGNED:Poisson regression for the adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) of each outcome during the COVID-19 waves and the nonwave period relative to reference (January 1, 2016-December 31, 2019), adjusted for seasonality and secular trends. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:) and has declined since; mortality rates were 139%, 107%, and 251% above expected for Black candidates, men, and candidates aged ≥75 years, respectively, during the winter 2020-2021 wave. Removals increased from 22% below expected levels (initial wave) to 26% above expected levels (omicron wave); removals were nonsignificantly higher than expected during the omicron wave for older Black and Hispanic candidates. LIMITATIONS/UNASSIGNED:The findings are not generalizable to those listed at earlier ages with prolonged waitlist times. Additionally, using national COVID-19 incidence does not consider local policy and health care variations. Lastly, aIRRs must be interpreted cautiously due to smaller daily event counts. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:COVID-19 was associated with fewer transplants and increased mortality and removals in older kidney transplant candidates. Transplant providers should consider this impact and implement policies and practices to ensure the continuity of care. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY/UNASSIGNED:The proportion of older adults on the kidney transplant waitlist is increasing, but the impact of COVID-19 on this population is not well characterized. In this study, we looked at incident waitlist registrations, deceased- and living-donor kidney transplants, and waitlist mortality and removals due to deteriorating condition over 4 waves of COVID-19. We found that transplantation services did not fully recover to prepandemic levels as of March 2022. Notably, racial/ethnic minorities and older men experienced lower rates of kidney transplants and higher rates of waitlist mortality, respectively, relative to White candidates and older women. Identifying vulnerable subpopulations affected by COVID-19 and its long-term impact is crucial for creating strategies to ensure the continuity of care in this population during public health emergencies.