Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVE:To test whether frailty, a novel measure of physiologic reserve, is associated with longer kidney transplant (KT) length of stay (LOS), and modifies the association between LOS and mortality. BACKGROUND:Better understanding of LOS is necessary for informed consent and discharge planning. Mortality resulting from longer LOS has important regulatory implications for hospital and transplant programs. Which recipients are at risk of prolonged LOS and its effect on mortality are unclear. Frailty is a novel preoperative predictor of poor KT outcomes including delayed graft function, early hospital readmission, immunosuppression intolerance, and mortality. METHODS:We used registry-augmented hybrid methods, a novel approach to risk adjustment, to adjust for LOS risk factors from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 74,859) and tested whether (1) frailty, measured immediately before KT in a novel cohort (n = 589), was associated with LOS (LOS: negative binomial regression; LOS ≥2 weeks: logistic regression) and (2) whether frailty modified the association between LOS and mortality (interaction term analysis). RESULTS:Frailty was independently associated with longer LOS [relative risk = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29; P = 0.01] and LOS ≥2 weeks (odds ratio = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.06-2.33; P = 0.03) after accounting for registry-based risk factors, including delayed graft function. Frailty also attenuated the association between LOS and mortality (nonfrail hazard rate = 1.55 95% CI: 1.30-1.86; P < 0.001; frail hazard rate = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.79-1.19, P = 0.80; P for interaction = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Frail KT recipients are more likely to experience a longer LOS. Longer LOS among nonfrail recipients may be a marker of increased mortality risk. Frailty is a measure of physiologic reserve that may be an important clinical marker of longer surgical LOS.

In 2013, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN)/ United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) mandated that transplant centers collect data on living kidney donors (LKDs) at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years postdonation, with policy-defined thresholds for the proportion of complete living donor follow-up (LDF) data submitted in a timely manner (60 days before or after the expected visit date). While mandated, it was unclear how centers across the country would perform in meeting thresholds, given potential donor and center-level challenges of LDF. To better understand the impact of this policy, we studied Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data for 31,615 LKDs between January 2010 and June 2015, comparing proportions of complete and timely LDF form submissions before and after policy implementation. We also used multilevel logistic regression to assess donor- and center-level characteristics associated with complete and timely LDF submissions. Complete and timely 2-year LDF increased from 33% prepolicy (January 2010 through January 2013) to 54% postpolicy (February 2013 through June 2015) (p < 0.001). In an adjusted model, the odds of 2-year LDF increased by 22% per year prepolicy (p < 0.001) and 23% per year postpolicy (p < 0.001). Despite these annual increases in LDF, only 43% (87/202) of centers met the OPTN/UNOS-required 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year LDF thresholds for LKDs who donated in 2013. These findings motivate further evaluation of LDF barriers and the optimal approaches to capturing outcomes after living donation.

BACKGROUND:There is increasing evidence questioning the use of warfarin for atrial fibrillation (AF) among older adults with end stage renal disease (ESRD). We assessed the patterns and determinants of warfarin utilization among these patients in the US. METHODS:We assembled a cohort of older adults (age ≥65) undergoing dialysis with incident AF from July 2007 to November 2011 from the US Renal Data System (USRDS). We used descriptive statistics to characterize warfarin utilization within 30 days of AF discharge, and logistic regression to quantify patient characteristics associated with warfarin initiation. RESULTS:Among 5730 older adults undergoing dialysis with incident AF, 15.5% initiated warfarin. Among 2906 patients with high risk of bleeding, 12.7% initiated warfarin; whereas 14.9% initiated warfarin among 4824 patients with high risk of stroke. After adjustment for patient characteristics, warfarin initiation was lower among patients who were older [odds ratio (OR) = 0.74 per 10-year increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66-0.83] and those with a history of diabetes (OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.90), myocardial infarction (OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.50-0.80), or bleeding (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.50-0.80). There was no association between sex, race, or dialysis modality and warfarin initiation. Among patients who initiated warfarin, 46.8% discontinued warfarin use after a median treatment length of 8.6 months. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Despite the unclear benefit and increased bleeding risk of warfarin treatment in patients with ESRD, 1 in 8 older adults undergoing dialysis with incident AF in the US who had high risk of bleeding used warfarin. Changes to warfarin therapy due to discontinuation were common after initiation.

Nondirected living donors (NDLDs) are an important and growing source of kidneys to help reduce the organ shortage. In its infancy, NDLD transplantation was clustered at a few transplant centers and rarely benefited African American (AA) recipients. However, NDLDs have increased 9.4-fold since 2000, and now are often used to initiate kidney paired donation chains. Therefore, we hypothesized that the initial geographic clustering and racial disparities may have improved. We used Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data to compare NDLDs and their recipients between 2008-2015 and 2000-2007. We found that NDLD increased an average of 12% per year, from 20 in 2000 to 188 in 2015 (IRR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.11-1.13, P < .001). In 2000-2007, 18.3% of recipients of NDLD kidneys were AA; this decreased in 2008-2015 to 15.7%. NDLD transplants initially became more evenly distributed across centers (Gini 0.91 in 2000 to Gini 0.69 in 2011), but then became more clustered at fewer transplant centers (Gini 0.75 in 2015). Despite the increased number of NDLDs, racial disparities have worsened and the center-level distribution of NDLD transplants has narrowed in recent years.

BACKGROUND:After kidney transplantation, early readmission is independently associated with graft loss and mortality. The mechanism of this association is poorly understood. Understanding the timeline of risk, that is, during the readmission hospitalization versus periods postreadmission, will provide additional insights. METHODS:We used national registry data to study 56 076 adult Medicare-primary first-time kidney transplant recipients from December 1999 to October 2011. Piecewise Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between graft loss, mortality, and readmission for 2 periods: readmission hospitalization and postreadmission. RESULTS:During the readmission hospitalization, graft loss was substantially higher (deceased donor kidney transplant [DDKT] without delayed graft function [DGF] hazard ratio: 24.634.447.9, P < 0.001; with DGF: 10.815.221.4, P < 0.001; live donor kidney transplant [LDKT]: 18.136.774.2, P < 0.001) and mortality was substantially higher (DDKT without DGF: 14.120.830.7, P < 0.001; with DGF: 9.0312.818.0, P < 0.001; LDKT: 9.0018.241.3, P < 0.001). Immediately after readmission discharge, graft loss (DDKT without DGF: 2.082.402.77, P < 0.001; with DGF: 1.832.142.51, P < 0.001; LDKT: 2.002.503.13, P < 0.001), and mortality (DDKT without DGF: 2.162.432.73, P < 0.001; with DGF: 1.832.162.88, P < 0.001; LDKT: 1.902.342.88, P < 0.001) remained elevated, but much less so. After readmission, the hazard of graft loss remained, but decreased 19% per year for DDKT recipients (time varying coefficient 0.780.810.85, P < 0.001) and 14% per year for LDKT recipients (0.790.860.93, P < 0.001). The hazard of mortality remained, but decreased 14% per year for DDKT recipients (0.830.860.89, P < 0.001) and 9% per year for LDKT recipients (0.850.910.98, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:In conclusion, readmission is most strongly associated with graft loss and mortality during the readmission hospitalization, but also portends a lasting, albeit attenuated, risk postreadmission.

From its infancy, live donor transplantation has operated within a framework of acceptable risk to donors. Such a framework presumes that risks of living donation are experienced by the donor while all benefits are realized by the recipient, creating an inequitable distribution that demands minimization of donor risk. We suggest that this risk-tolerance framework ignores tangible benefits to the donor. A previously proposed framework more fully considers potential benefits to the donor and argues that risks and benefits must be balanced. We expand on this approach, and posit that donors sharing a household with and/or caring for a potential transplant patient may realize tangible benefits that are absent in a more distantly related donation (e.g. cousin, nondirected). We term these donors, whose well-being is closely tied to their recipient, "interdependent donors." A flexible risk-benefit model that combines risk assessment with benefits to interdependent donors will contribute to donor evaluation and selection that more accurately reflects what is at stake for donors. In so doing, a risk-benefit framework may allow some donors to accept greater risk in donation decisions.

The required intensity of monitoring for antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) after of ABO-incompatible (ABOi) kidney transplantation is not clearly formulized. We retrospectively evaluated a single-center cohort of 115 ABO-incompatible (ABOi) kidney transplant recipients, of which 32% were also HLA-incompatible (ABOi/HLAi) with their donors. We used an adjusted negative binomial model to evaluate risk factors for late AMR. Using this model, we risk-stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups for the development of late AMR. 26% of patients had at least one AMR episode. 49% of AMR episodes occurred within 30-days after transplant and were considered early AMR. Patients with an early AMR episode had a 5.5-fold greater incidence of developing late AMR (IRR=5.5,[95%CI:1.5-19.3],p=0.01). ABOi/HLAi recipients trended towards increased late AMR risk (IRR=1.9,[95%CI:0.5-6.6],p=0.3). High-risk recipients (those with an early AMR or those who were ABOi/HLAi) had a 6-fold increased incidence of late AMR (IRR=6.3,[95%CI:1.6-24.6],p=0.008) versus low-risk recipients. The overall incidence of late AMR was 20.8% versus 1.5% in low-risk recipients. Changes in anti-A/B titer did not correlate with late AMR (IRR=0.9 per log titer increase, p=0.7). This risk-stratification scheme uses information available within 30-days of ABOi transplantation to determine risk for late AMR and can help direct longitudinal follow-up for individual patients

BACKGROUND:Frailty increases early hospital readmission and mortality risk among kidney transplantation (KT) recipients. Although frailty represents a high-risk state for this population, the correlates of frailty, the patterns of the 5 frailty components, and the risk associated with these patterns are unclear. METHODS:Six hundred sixty-three KT recipients were enrolled in a cohort study of frailty in transplantation (12/2008-8/2015). Frailty, activities of daily living (ADL)/instrumental ADL (IADL) disability, Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale depression, education, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) were measured. We used multinomial regression to identify frailty correlates. We identified which patterns of the 5 components were associated with mortality using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS:Frailty prevalence was 19.5%. Older recipients (adjusted prevalence ratio [PR], 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-4.07) were more likely to be frail. The only other factors that were independently associated with frailty were IADL disability (PR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.72-6.06), depressive symptoms (PR, 11.31; 95% CI, 4.02-31.82), less than a high school education (PR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.30-7.36), and low HRQOL (fair/poor: PR, 3.71; 95% CI, 1.48-9.31). The most common pattern was poor grip strength, low physical activity, and slowed walk speed (19.4%). Only 2 patterns of the 5 components emerged as having an association with post-KT mortality. KT recipients with exhaustion and slowed walking speed (hazards ratio = 2.43; 95% CI, 1.17-5.03) and poor grip strength, exhaustion, and slowed walking speed (hazard ratio, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.14-5.97) were at increased mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS:Age was the only conventional factor associated with frailty among KT recipients; however, factors rarely measured as part of clinical practice, namely, HRQOL, IADL disability, and depressive symptoms, were significant correlates of frailty. Redefining the frailty phenotype may be needed to improve risk stratification for KT recipients.

Studies have estimated the average risk of postdonation ESRD for living kidney donors in the United States, but personalized estimation on the basis of donor characteristics remains unavailable. We studied 133,824 living kidney donors from 1987 to 2015, as reported to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network, with ESRD ascertainment via Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services linkage, using Cox regression with late entries. Black race (hazard ratio [HR], 2.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.25 to 3.89; P<0.001) and male sex (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.50 to 2.35; P<0.001) was associated with higher risk of ESRD in donors. Among nonblack donors, older age was associated with greater risk (HR per 10 years, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.59; P<0.001). Among black donors, older age was not significantly associated with risk (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.09; P=0.3). Greater body mass index was associated with higher risk (HR per 5 kg/m², 1.61; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.00; P<0.001). Donors who had a first-degree biological relationship to the recipient had increased risk (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.34; P<0.01). C-statistic of the model was 0.71. Predicted 20-year risk of ESRD for the median donor was only 34 cases per 10,000 donors, but 1% of donors had predicted risk exceeding 256 cases per 10,000 donors. Risk estimation is critical for appropriate informed consent and varies substantially across living kidney donors. Greater permissiveness may be warranted in older black candidate donors; young black candidates should be evaluated carefully.