Faculty Bibliography

Purpose: To compare the effectiveness of standard treatment using partial nephrectomy and personalized management strategies for small renal tumors using a simulation model.
Material(s) and Method(s): A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors using: (1) uniform treatment with partial nephrectomy; or personalized options incorporating (2) percutaneous ablation; (3) biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to nephron-sparing therapy; (4) watchful waiting for growth; and (5) MRI-based selection of papillary RCC for watchful waiting. The model included patient age, gender, chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage, renal functional decline specific to treatment type, comorbidities, benign and malignant tumors, RCC subtypes, and differential risks of cancer progression. Decisionmaking based on histologic subtype from biopsy was tested in sensitivity analysis.
Result(s): Partial nephrectomy was favored in patients of all ages with normal renal function. Otherwise, personalized strategies improved life expectancy compared with partial nephrectomy. The favorability of personalized therapy depended upon CKD stage, tumor anatomy and comorbidities. For example, patients with CKD stages 2 or 3a and moderate or high tumor anatomic complexity were most effectively treated with MRI-based management when they had no comorbidities (+ 2.57 years for MRI vs. partial nephrectomy in CKD 3a, Nephrometry Score 10), but with Charlson Comorbidity Index >=1, biopsy or watchful waiting for growth were most effective. Biopsy-based management became most effective in multiple patient subcategories when histologic subtype guided treatment selection.
Conclusion(s): Personalized treatment selection for small renal tumors likely improves life expectancy for patients with abnormal renal function

OBJECTIVE:Lung cancer is the leading cause of non-AIDS-defining cancer deaths among HIV-infected individuals. Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is endorsed by multiple national organizations, whether HIV-infected individuals would have similar benefit as uninfected individuals from lung cancer screening is unknown. Our objective was to determine the benefits and harms of lung cancer screening among HIV-infected individuals. DESIGN/METHODS:We modified an existing simulation model, the Lung Cancer Policy Model, for HIV-infected patients. DATA SOURCES/METHODS:Veterans Aging Cohort Study, Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV Cohort, and medical literature. TARGET POPULATION/METHODS:HIV-infected current and former smokers. TIME HORIZON/METHODS:Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE/CONCLUSIONS:Population. INTERVENTION/METHODS:Annual LDCT screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 until ages 72 or 77 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES/METHODS:Benefits assessed included lung cancer mortality reduction and life-years gained; harms assessed included numbers of LDCT examinations, false-positive results, and overdiagnosed cases. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS/RESULTS:For HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl and 100% antiretroviral therapy adherence, screening using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria (age 55-77, 30 pack-years of smoking, current smoker or quit within 15 years of screening) would reduce lung cancer mortality by 18.9%, similar to the mortality reduction of uninfected individuals. Alternative screening strategies utilizing lower screening age and/or pack-years criteria increase mortality reduction, but require more LDCT examinations. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Strategies assumed 100% screening adherence. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Lung cancer screening reduces mortality in HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell count at least 500 cells/μl, with a number of efficient strategies for eligibility, including the current Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria.

Background. Multilevel interventions combine individual component interventions, and their design can be informed by decision analysis. Our objective was to identify the optimal combination of interventions for alcohol-using HIV+ individuals on antiretroviral drug therapy in Maharashtra, India, explicitly considering stakeholder constraints. Methods. Using an HIV simulation, we evaluated the expected net monetary benefit (ENMB), the probability of lying on the efficiency frontier (PEF), and annual program costs of 5,836 unique combinations of 15 single-focused HIV risk-reduction interventions. We evaluated scenarios of 1) no constraints (i.e., maximize expected value), 2) short-term budget constraints (limits on annual programmatic costs of US$200,000 and $400,000), and 3) a constraint stemming from risk aversion (requiring that the strategy has >50% PEF). Results. With no constraints, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, long group counseling for sex-risk, and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $428,886; PEF ∼27%) maximized ENMB and would be the optimal design. With a cost constraint of $400,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, brief group counseling for sex-risk, and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $374,745; PEF ∼4%) maximized ENMB. With a cost constraint of $200,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, and brief group counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $187,335; PEF ∼54%) maximized ENMB. With the risk aversion constraint, the same configuration (long individual alcohol counseling, text-message support, and brief group counseling for sex-risk) maximized health benefit. Conclusion. Evaluating the costs, risks, and projected benefits of alternatives supports informed decision making prior to initiating study; however, stakeholder constraints should be explicitly included and discussed when using decision analyses to guide study design.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Active surveillance (AS) is the most rapidly expanding management option for favorable-risk prostate cancer (PCa). Early studies suggested substantial decrements in utility (quality of life weights) from disease-related anxiety. Our objective was to determine utilities for contemporary AS patients using different instruments. Methods/UNASSIGNED:We performed a systematic review of PubMed, PMC and OVID for utility measurements in modern AS patients. We then examined utilities among 37 men on AS participating in focus groups between 2015-2016 using the generic EurQol five dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) and Patient Oriented Prostate Utility Scale (PORPUS), a PCa-specific instrument. Results/UNASSIGNED:The systematic review found previous studies with utilities for PCa treatment and historical watchful waiting populations, but none specifically in contemporary AS. In our AS population, the mean EQ-5D-3L score was 0.90±0.16 (median, 1.00; range, 0.21-1.00) and PORPUS was 0.98±0.03 (median, 0.99; range, 0.84-1.00). The Spearman correlation between the EQ-5D-3L and PORPUS was 0.87 (P<0.0001), and 38% of patients had a difference >0.1 between instruments. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:Most contemporary AS patients had high utility scores suggesting that they perceive themselves in good health without a major decrement in quality of life from the disease. However, some patients had substantial differences in utility measured with generic versus disease-specific instruments. Further study is warranted into the optimal instrument for utility assessment in contemporary AS patients.

INTRODUCTION: We used a computer simulation of HIV progression and transmission to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of three strategies to seek out and test individuals with undiagnosed HIV in New York City (NYC). SETTING: Hypothetical NYC population METHODS:: We incorporated the observed effects and costs of the three "seek and test" strategies in a computer simulation of HIV in NYC, comparing a scenario in which the strategies were scaled up with a one-year implementation or a long-term implementation with a counterfactual scenario with no scale-up. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression, calibrated to NYC epidemiological data from 2003 to 2015. The three approaches were respondent driven sampling (RDS) with anonymous HIV testing ("RDS-A"), RDS with a two-session confidential HIV testing approach ("RDS-C"), and venue-based sampling ("VBS"). RESULTS: RDS-A was the most cost-effective strategy tested. When implemented for only one year and then stopped thereafter, using a societal perspective, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no intervention was $812/QALY, $18,110/QALY, and $20,362/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When interventions were implemented long-term, the cost per QALY gained versus no intervention was cost-saving, $31,773/QALY, and $35,148/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When compared to RDS-A the incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for both VBS and RDS-C were dominated. CONCLUSION: The expansion of the RDS-A strategy would substantially reduce HIV-related deaths and new HIV infections in NYC, and would be either cost-saving or have favorable cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to assess differences in patient distress, risk perception, and treatment preferences for incidental renal findings with descriptive versus combined descriptive and numeric graphical risk information. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A randomized survey study was conducted for adult patients about to undergo outpatient imaging studies at a large urban academic institution. Two survey arms contained either descriptive or a combination of descriptive and numeric graphical risk information about three hypothetical incidental renal findings at CT: 2-cm (low risk) and 5-cm (high risk) renal tumors and a 2-cm (low risk) renal artery aneurysm. The main outcomes were patient distress, perceived risk (qualitative and quantitative), treatment preference, and valuation of lesion discovery. RESULTS: Of 374 patients, 299 participated (79.9% response rate). With inclusion of numeric and graphical, rather than only descriptive, risk information about disease progression for a 2-cm renal tumor, patients reported less worry (3.56 vs 4.12 on a 5-point scale; p < 0.001) and favored surgical consultation less often (29.3% vs 46.9%; p = 0.003). The proportion choosing surgical consultation for the 2-cm renal tumor decreased to a similar level as for the renal artery aneurysm with numeric risk information (29.3% [95% CI, 21.7-36.8%] and 27.9% [95% CI, 20.5-35.3%], respectively). Patients overestimated the absolute risk of adverse events regardless of risk information type, but significantly more so when given descriptive information only, and valued the discovery of lesions regardless of risk information type (range, 4.41-4.81 on a 5-point scale). CONCLUSION: Numeric graphical risk communication for patients about incidental renal lesions may facilitate accurate risk comprehension and support patients in informed decision making.

OBJECTIVE:To understand the informational needs during active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer from the perspectives of patients and providers. METHODS:We conducted seven focus groups with 37 AS patients in two urban clinical settings, and 24 semi-structured interviews with a national sample of providers. Transcripts were analyzed using applied thematic analysis, and themes were organized using descriptive matrix analyses. RESULTS:We identified six themes related to informational needs during AS: 1) more information on prostate cancer (biopsy features, prognosis), 2) more information on active surveillance (difference from watchful waiting, testing protocol), 3) more information on alternative management options (complementary medicine, lifestyle modification), 4) greater variety of resources (multiple formats, targeting different audiences), 5) more social support and interaction, and 6) verified integrity of information (trusted, multidisciplinary and secure). CONCLUSIONS:Patients and providers described numerous drawbacks to existing prostate cancer resources and a variety of unmet needs including information on prognosis, AS testing protocols, and lifestyle modification. They also expressed a need for different types of resources, including interaction and unbiased information. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:These results are useful to inform the design of future resources for men undergoing AS.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Link4Health, a cluster-RCT, demonstrated the effectiveness of a combination strategy targeting barriers at various HIV continuum steps on linkage to and retention in care; showing effectiveness in achieving linkage to HIV care within 1 month plus retention in care at 12 months after HIV testing for people living with HIV (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.19-1.96, p = 0.002). In addition to standard of care, Link4Health included: 1) Point-of-care CD4+ count testing; 2) Accelerated ART initiation; 3) Mobile phone appointment reminders; 4) Care and prevention package including commodities and informational materials; and 5) Non-cash financial incentive. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of the Link4Health strategy in Swaziland. METHODS AND FINDINGS/RESULTS:We incorporated the effects and costs of the Link4Health strategy into a computer simulation of the HIV epidemic in Swaziland, comparing a scenario where the strategy was scaled up to a scenario with no implementation. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression calibrated to Swaziland epidemiological data. It incorporated downstream health costs potentially saved and infections potentially prevented by improved linkage and treatment adherence. We assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of Link4Health compared to standard care from a health sector perspective reported in US$2015, a time horizon of 20 years, and a discount rate of 3% in accordance with WHO guidelines.[1] Our results suggest that scale-up of the Link4Health strategy would reduce new HIV infections over 20 years by 11,059 infections, a 7% reduction from the projected 169,019 cases and prevent 5,313 deaths, an 11% reduction from the projected 49,582 deaths. Link4Health resulted in an incremental cost per infection prevented of $13,310 and an incremental cost per QALY gained of $3,560/QALY from the health sector perspective. CONCLUSIONS:Using a threshold of <3 x per capita GDP, the Link4Health strategy is likely to be a cost-effective strategy for responding to the HIV epidemic in Swaziland.