Faculty Bibliography

Statistical methods are given for producing a cost-effectiveness frontier for an arbitrary number of programs. In the deterministic case, the net health benefit (NHB) decision rule is optimal; the rule funds the program with the largest positive NHB at each lambda, the amount a decision-maker is willing to pay for an additional unit of effectiveness. For bivariate normally distributed cost and effectiveness variables and a specified lambda, a statistical procedure is presented, based on the method of constrained multiple comparisons with the best (CMCB), for determining the program with the largest NHB. A one-tailed t test is used to determine if the NHB is positive. To obtain a statistical frontier in the lambda-NHB plane, we develop a method to produce the region in which each program has the largest NHB, by pivoting a CMCB confidence interval. A one-sided version of Fieller's theorem is used to determine the region where the NHB of each program is positive. At each lambda, the pointwise error rate is bounded by a prespecified alpha. Upper bounds on the familywise error rate, the probability of an error at any value of lambda, are given. The methods are applied to a hypothetical clinical trial of antipsychotic agents

A consensus conference on the use of placebo in mood disorder studies consisted of expert presentations on bioethics, biostatistics, unipolar depression, and bipolar disorder. Work groups considered evidence and presented statements to the group. Although it was not possible to write a document for which there was complete agreement on all issues, the final document incorporated input from all authors. There was consensus that placebo has a definite role in mood disorder studies. Findings of equivalence between a new drug and standard treatment in active control studies is not evidence of efficacy unless the new drug is also significantly more effective than placebo. Add-on studies in which patients are randomized to standard therapy plus the investigational drug or standard therapy plus placebo are especially indicated for high-risk patients. Mood disorders in elderly and pediatric patients are understudied, and properly designed trials are urgently needed. Research is needed on the ethical conduct of studies to limit risks of medication-free intervals and facilitate poststudy treatment. Patients must fully understand the risks and lack of individualized treatment involved in research

OBJECTIVE: To identify the number of people in the United States with untreated serious mental illness (SMI) and the reasons for their lack of treatment. DATA SOURCE/STUDY DESIGN: The National Comorbidity Survey; cross-sectional, nationally representative household survey. DATA COLLECTION: An operationalization of the SMI definition set forth in the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Reorganization Act identified individuals with SMI in the 12 months prior to the interview. The presence of SMI then was related to the use of mental health services in the past 12 months. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of the 6.2 percent of respondents who had SMI in the year prior to interview, fewer than 40 percent received stable treatment. Young adults and those living in nonrural areas were more likely to have unmet needs for treatment. The majority of those who received no treatment felt that they did not have an emotional problem requiring treatment. Among those who did recognize this need, 52 percent reported situational barriers, 46 percent reported financial barriers, and 45 percent reported perceived lack of effectiveness as reasons for not seeking treatment. The most commonly reported reason both for failing to seek treatment (72 percent) and for treatment dropout (58 percent) was wanting to solve the problem on their own. CONCLUSIONS: Although changes in the financing of services are important, they are unlikely by themselves to eradicate unmet need for treatment of SMI. Efforts to increase both self-recognition of need for treatment and the patient centeredness of care also are needed

BACKGROUND: Poorly defined cohorts and weak study designs have hampered cross-cultural comparisons of course and outcome in schizophrenia. AIMS: To describe long-term outcome in 18 diverse treated incidence and prevalence cohorts. To compare mortality, 15- and 25-year illness trajectory and the predictive strength of selected baseline and short-term course variables. METHODS: Historic prospective study. Standardised assessments of course and outcome. RESULTS: About 75% traced. About 50% of surviving cases had favourable outcomes, but there was marked heterogeneity across geographic centres. In regression models, early (2-year) course patterns were the strongest predictor of 15-year outcome, but recovery varied by location; 16% of early unremitting cases achieved late-phase recovery. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of treated incident cases of schizophrenia achieve favourable long-term outcome. Sociocultural conditions appear to modify long-term course. Early intervention programmes focused on social as well as pharmacological treatments may realise longer-term gains

Statistical methods for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) for two treatments that mimic the deterministic optimal rules of CEA are presented. In these rules the objective is to determine the treatment with the maximal effectiveness whose unit cost is less than an amount, lambda, that a decision-maker is willing to pay (WTP). This is accomplished by identifying the treatment with the largest positive net health benefit (NHB), which is a function of lambda, while controlling the familywise error rate both when the WTP value is given and when it is unspecified. Fieller's theorem is used to determine a region of WTP values where the NHBs of the treatments are not distinguishable. For each lambda outside of the confidence region, the larger treatment is identified. A newly developed one-tailed analogue of Fieller's theorem is used to determine the WTP values where a treatment's NHB is positive. The situation in which both treatments are experimental is distinguished from the case where one of the treatments is usual care. The one-tailed confidence region is used in the latter case to obtain the lambda values where the NHBs are not different, and determining the region of positivity of the NHBs may be unnecessary. An example is presented in which the cost-effectiveness of two antipsychotic treatments is evaluated

It is common for clinical trials designed to compare treatments for migraine to incorporate a component for estimating onset. Our objective is to describe a stopwatch method for collecting data on time to meaningful relief and a conceptual framework for describing and analysing the results. The survival distribution of onset is modelled in two parts: the probability that onset does not occur, and the survival distribution conditional on its occurrence. Using data from a clinical trial comparing an active treatment and placebo, we illustrate the method and find that the distributions of onset among those with onset do not differ, but the probabilities that onset occurs are substantially different. We illustrate how the model can be used to help determine how long patients without onset should wait before further intervention, how patients interpret the phrase meaningful relief, and how baseline clinical characteristics affect the onset

For resource allocation under a constrained budget, optimal decision rules for mutually exclusive programs require that the treatment with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below a willingness-to-pay (WTP) criterion be funded. This is equivalent to determining the treatment with the smallest net health cost. The designer of a cost-effectiveness study needs to select a sample size so that the power to reject the null hypothesis, the equality of the net health costs of two treatments, is high. A recently published formula derived under normal distribution theory overstates sample-size requirements. Using net health costs, the authors present simple methods for power analysis based on conventional normal and on nonparametric statistical theory

Both incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net benefits have been proposed as summary measures for use in cost-effectiveness analyses. We present a unifying proof of the optimality and equivalence of ICER- and net benefit-based approaches to the health resource allocation problem, including both 'fixed budget' and 'fixed price' decision rules. If internally consistent willingness-to-pay values are used, ratio- and net benefit-based decision rules identify the same optimal allocation. Because they have identical resource allocation implications, use of one or other of the two approaches must be based on other criteria, such as their behaviour under conditions of uncertainty