Faculty Bibliography
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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.
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Socioeconomic status and risk of kidney dysfunction: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study
BACKGROUND:There is strong evidence of an association between socioeconomic status (SES) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, the association of SES with the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the rate of change in kidney function is unclear. METHODS:A cohort of 14 086 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (1987-89) were studied. The association of annual household income, educational attainment and neighborhood deprivation with incident ESRD, incident CKD and change in eGFR using four measurements over ∼23 years was assessed. RESULTS:A total of 432 participants developed ESRD and 3510 developed CKD over a median follow-up time of ∼23 years. After adjustment for demographics and baseline eGFR, the hazard ratio (HR) for incident ESRD compared with the high-income group was 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.99 in the medium-income group and 2.30 (95% CI 1.75-3.02) in the low-income group (P-trend < 0.001), and for CKD was 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.20) in the medium-income group and 1.30 (95% CI 1.17-1.44) in the low-income group (P-trend < 0.001). After full adjustments, the HR for ESRD was 1.33 (95% CI 1.03-1.70) in the medium-income group and 1.50 (95% CI 1.14-1.98) in the low-income group (P-trend = 0.003) and for CKD was 1.01 (95% CI 0.92-1.10) in the medium-income group and 1.04 (95% CI 0.93-1.16) in the low-income group (P-trend = 0.50). The eGFR decline was 5% and 15% steeper in the medium- and low-income groups, respectively, after full adjustment (P-trend < 0.001). Results were similar, with lower educational attainment and higher neighborhood deprivation being associated with adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:SES (annual household income, educational attainment or neighborhood deprivation) was associated not only with ESRD risk but also with eGFR decline, although the association with CKD appeared weaker.
PMID: 29897587
ISSN: 1460-2385
CID: 5101042
Cigarette Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Long-Term Risk of 3 Major Atherosclerotic Diseases
BACKGROUND:Public statements about the effect of smoking on cardiovascular disease are predominantly based on investigations of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, although smoking is recognized as a strong risk factor for peripheral artery disease (PAD). No study has comprehensively compared the long-term association of cigarette smoking and its cessation with the incidence of 3 major atherosclerotic diseases (PAD, CHD, and stroke). OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to quantify the long-term association of cigarette smoking and its cessation with the incidence of the 3 outcomes. METHODS:A total of 13,355 participants aged 45 to 64 years in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study without PAD, CHD, or stroke at baseline (1987 to 1989) were included. The associations of smoking parameters (pack-years, duration, intensity, and cessation) with incident PAD were quantified and contrasted with CHD and stroke using Cox models. RESULTS:Over a median follow-up of 26 years, there were 492 PAD cases, 1,798 CHD cases, and 1,106 stroke cases. A dose-response relationship was identified between pack-years of smoking and 3 outcomes, with the strongest results for PAD. The pattern was consistent when investigating duration and intensity separately. A longer period of smoking cessation was consistently related to lower risk of PAD, CHD, and stroke, but a significantly elevated risk persisted up to 30 years following smoking cessation for PAD and up to 20 years for CHD. CONCLUSIONS:All smoking measures showed significant associations with 3 major atherosclerotic diseases, with the strongest effect size for incident PAD. The risk due to smoking lasted up to 30 years for PAD and 20 years for CHD. Our results further highlight the importance of smoking prevention and early smoking cessation, and indicate the need for public statements to take PAD into account when acknowledging the impact of smoking on overall cardiovascular health.
PMID: 31345423
ISSN: 1558-3597
CID: 5585372
Albuminuria as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction
Background In patients with myocardial infarction ( MI ), reduced kidney function is recognized as an important predictor of poor prognosis, but the impact of albuminuria, a representative measure of kidney damage, has not been extensively evaluated. Methods and Results In the SCREAM (Stockholm Creatinine Measurements) project (2006-2012), we identified 2469 patients with incident MI with dipstick proteinuria measured within a year before MI (427 patients also had urine albumin to creatinine ratio [ ACR ] measured concurrently) and obtained estimates for ACR with multiple imputation in participants with data solely on dipstick proteinuria. We quantified the association of ACR with the post- MI composite and individual outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI , ischemic stroke, or heart failure using Cox models and then evaluated the improvement in C statistic. During a median follow-up of 1.0Â year after MI , 1607 participants (65.1%) developed the post- MI composite outcome. Higher ACR levels were independently associated with all outcomes except for ischemic stroke. Per 8-fold higher ACR (eg, 40 versus 5Â mg/g), the hazard ratio of composite outcome was 1.21 (95% CI , 1.08-1.35). The addition of the ACR improved the C statistic of the post- MI composite by 0.040 (95% CI, 0.030-0.051). Largely similar results were obtained regardless of diabetic status and when ACR or dipstick was separately analyzed without imputation. Conclusions In patients with MI , albuminuria was a potent predictor of subsequent outcomes, suggesting the importance of paying attention to the information on albuminuria, in addition to kidney function, in this high-risk population.
PMCID:6507197
PMID: 30947615
ISSN: 2047-9980
CID: 5101282
Adiposity and risk of decline in glomerular filtration rate: meta-analysis of individual participant data in a global consortium
OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the associations between adiposity measures (body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio) with decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and with all cause mortality. DESIGN:Individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING:Cohorts from 40 countries with data collected between 1970 and 2017. PARTICIPANTS:Adults in 39 general population cohorts (n=5 459 014), of which 21 (n=594 496) had data on waist circumference; six cohorts with high cardiovascular risk (n=84 417); and 18 cohorts with chronic kidney disease (n=91 607). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:) and all cause mortality. RESULTS:Over a mean follow-up of eight years, 246 607 (5.6%) individuals in the general population cohorts had GFR decline (18 118 (0.4%) end stage kidney disease events) and 782 329 (14.7%) died. Adjusting for age, sex, race, and current smoking, the hazard ratios for GFR decline comparing body mass indices 30, 35, and 40 with body mass index 25 were 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.27), 1.69 (1.51 to 1.89), and 2.02 (1.80 to 2.27), respectively. Results were similar in all subgroups of estimated GFR. Associations weakened after adjustment for additional comorbidities, with respective hazard ratios of 1.03 (0.95 to 1.11), 1.28 (1.14 to 1.44), and 1.46 (1.28 to 1.67). The association between body mass index and death was J shaped, with the lowest risk at body mass index of 25. In the cohorts with high cardiovascular risk and chronic kidney disease (mean follow-up of six and four years, respectively), risk associations between higher body mass index and GFR decline were weaker than in the general population, and the association between body mass index and death was also J shaped, with the lowest risk between body mass index 25 and 30. In all cohort types, associations between higher waist circumference and higher waist-to-height ratio with GFR decline were similar to that of body mass index; however, increased risk of death was not associated with lower waist circumference or waist-to-height ratio, as was seen with body mass index. CONCLUSIONS:Elevated body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio are independent risk factors for GFR decline and death in individuals who have normal or reduced levels of estimated GFR.
PMCID:6481269
PMID: 30630856
ISSN: 1756-1833
CID: 5101182
Hospitalization Risk among Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease
INTRODUCTION:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk staging is based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). However, the relationship between all-cause hospitalization risk and the current CKD staging system has not been well studied among older adults, despite a high prevalence of CKD and a high risk of hospitalization in old age. METHODS:Among 4,766 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, CKD was staged according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria, using creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr) and ACR. Incidence rates of all-cause hospitalization associated with each CKD risk group were analyzed using negative binomial regression. Additionally, cause-specific hospitalization risks for cardiovascular, infectious, kidney, and other diseases were estimated. The impacts of using cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcys) to estimate the prevalence of CKD and risks of hospitalization were also quantified. RESULTS:Participants experienced 5,548 hospitalizations and 29% had CKD. Hospitalization rates per 1,000 person-years according to KDIGO risk categories were 208-223 ("low risk"), 288-376 ("moderately increased risk"), 363-548 ("high risk"), and 499-1083 ("very high risk"). The increased risk associated with low eGFR and high ACR persisted in adjusted analyses, examinations of cause-specific hospitalizations, and when CKD was staged by eGFRcys or eGFRcr-cys, a combined equation based on both creatinine and cystatin C. In comparison to eGFRcr, staging by eGFRcys increased the prevalence of CKD to 50%, but hospitalization risks remained similarly high. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION:In older adults, decreased eGFR, increased ACR, and KDIGO risk stages based on a combination of these measures, were strong risk factors for hospitalization. These relationships were consistent, regardless of the marker used to estimate GFR, but the use of cystatin C resulted in a substantially higher prevalence of CKD than the use of creatinine. Older adults in the population with very high risk stages of CKD have hospitalization rates exceeding 500 per 1,000 person-years.
PMCID:6726535
PMID: 31311014
ISSN: 1421-9670
CID: 5101352
Dyskalemia, its patterns, and prognosis among patients with incident heart failure: A nationwide study of US veterans
BACKGROUND:Although hypokalemia has been viewed as a significant concern among patients with heart failure (HF), recent advances in HF management tend to increase the risk of hyperkalemia. OBJECTIVE:To characterize contemporary data regarding correlates and prognostic values of dyskalemia in patients with HF. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:In cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we studied 142,087 patients with newly diagnosed HF in US nationwide Veterans Administration database from 2005 through 2013. EXPOSURES:Demographic characteristics, laboratory variables, comorbidities, and medication use for the analysis of correlates of dyskalemia as well as potassium level in the analysis of mortality. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Dyskalemia and mortality. RESULTS:Hypokalemia (<3.5 mmol/L) at baseline was observed in 3.0% of the population, whereas hyperkalemia (≥5.5 mmol/L) was seen in 0.9%. An additional 20.4% and 5.7% had mild hypokalemia (3.5-3.9 mmol/L) and mild hyperkalemia (5.0-5.4 mmol/L). Key correlates were black race, higher blood pressure, and use of potassium-wasting diuretics for hypokalemia, and lower kidney function for hyperkalemia. Baseline potassium levels showed a U-shaped association with mortality, with the lowest risk between 4.0-4.5 mmol/L. With respect to potassium levels over a year after HF diagnosis, persistent (>50% of measurements), intermittent (>1 occurrence but ≤50%), and transient (1 occurrence) hypo- and hyperkalemia were also related to increased mortality in a graded fashion regardless of the aforementioned thresholds for dyskalemia. These dyskalemic patterns were also related to other clinical actions and demands such as emergency room visit. CONCLUSIONS:Potassium levels below 4 mmol/L and above 5 mmol/L at and after HF diagnosis were associated with poor prognosis and the clinical actions. HF patients (particularly with risk factors for dyskalemia like black race and kidney dysfunction) may require special attention for both hypo- and hyperkalemia.
PMCID:6687136
PMID: 31393910
ISSN: 1932-6203
CID: 5101382
Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN. 2018:13(12):1886-1888.DOI: 10.2215/CJN.08530718
Prevalence of Opioid, Gabapentinoid, and NSAID Use in Patients with CKD [Letter]
PMCID:6302317
PMID: 30409899
ISSN: 1555-905x
CID: 5101162
Chronic kidney disease measures and the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm
BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Despite its strong link to cardiovascular outcomes, the association of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been explicitly and comprehensively investigated. METHODS:In 10,724 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (aged 53-75 years during 1996-1998), we evaluated the associations of two key CKD measures - estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) - with incident AAA (AAA diagnosis in outpatient, hospitalization discharge, or death records). Additionally, we performed a cross-sectional analysis for the CKD measures and ultrasound-based abdominal aortic diameter in 4258 participants during 2011-2013. RESULTS:and was 2.49 (1.28-4.87) for ACR ≥300, 1.99 (1.40-2.83) for 30-299, and 1.46 (1.08-1.97) for 10-29 compared to ACR <10 mg/g. The associations were generally similar after accounting for additional confounders, such as smoking (although attenuated), or after stratifying by subgroups, including diabetes. The cross-sectional analysis also showed continuous positive associations of these CKD measures with aortic diameter, particularly at the distal aortic segment assessed. CONCLUSIONS:Reduced eGFR and elevated albuminuria were independently associated with greater incidence of AAA and greater abdominal aortic diameter. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of CKD measures to identify persons at high risk of AAA and the need to investigate pathophysiological pathways linking CKD to AAA.
PMID: 30290962
ISSN: 1879-1484
CID: 5101132
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
ISI:000449710900005
ISSN: 0140-6736
CID: 3493192
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
BACKGROUND:The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS:We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS:Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION:Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMID: 30496104
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 5642162
