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Survey of International Members of the American Thoracic Society on Climate Change and Health
Sarfaty, Mona; Kreslake, Jennifer; Ewart, Gary; Guidotti, Tee L; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Maibach, Edward W
The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed international members of the society to assess perceptions, clinical experiences, and preferred policy responses related to global climate change. A recruitment email was sent by the ATS President in October 2015 to 5,013 international members. Subsequently, four reminder emails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from 489 members in 68 countries; the response rate was 9.8%. Half of respondents reported working in countries in Asia (25%) or Europe (25%), with the remainder in South America (18%), North America (Canada and Mexico) (18%), Australia or New Zealand (9%), and Africa (6%). Survey estimate confidence intervals were +/- 5% or smaller. A high percentage of international ATS survey respondents judged that climate change is happening (96%), that it is driven by human activity (70%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (80%). A majority of respondents also indicated they are already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients; most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (88%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (72%), and severe weather injuries (69%). An even larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next two decades. Respondents further indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. International ATS respondents, like their counterparts in the U.S., observed that human health is already adversely affected by climate change, and support responses to address this situation.
PMID: 27726439
ISSN: 2325-6621
CID: 2278322
Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Source-Related Components of U.S. Fine Particle Air Pollution
Thurston, George D; Burnett, Richard T; Turner, Michelle C; Shi, Yuanli; Krewski, Daniel; Lall, Ramona; Ito, Kazuhiko; Jerrett, Michael; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W R; Pope, C A 3rd
BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution exposure has been identified as a global health threat. However, the types and sources of particles most responsible are not yet known. In this work, we sought to identify the causal characteristics and sources of air pollution underlying past published associations in the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study-II cohort between long-term PM2.5 exposure and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) mortality. METHODS: Individual risk factor data were evaluated for 445,860 adults in 100 U.S. metropolitan areas followed from 1982 to 2004 for vital status and cause of death. Using Cox proportional hazard models, IHD mortality hazard ratios (HRs) were derived for PM2.5, trace constituents, and pollution source-associated PM2.5, as derived from air monitoring at central stations throughout the nation during 2000-2005. RESULTS: Associations with IHD mortality varied by PM2.5 mass constituent and source. A coal combustion PM2.5 IHD HR = 1.05 (95% CI=1.02, 1.08) per microg/m3, versus an IHD HR = 1.01 (95% CI=1.00, 1.02) per microg/m3 PM2.5 mass, indicated a risk roughly five times higher for coal combustion PM2.5 than for PM2.5 mass in general, on a per microg/m3 PM2.5 basis. Diesel traffic-related elemental carbon (EC) soot was also associated with IHD mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.06 per 0.26 mug/m3 EC increase). However, PM2.5 from both wind-blown soil and biomass combustion were not associated with IHD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term PM2.5 exposures from fossil fuel combustion, especially coal burning, but also from diesel traffic, were associated with increases in IHD mortality in this nationwide population. Results suggest that PM2.5 - mortality associations can vary greatly by source, and that the largest IHD health benefits per microg/m3 from PM2.5 air pollution control may be achieved via reductions of fossil fuel combustion exposures, especially from coal-burning sources.
PMCID:4892920
PMID: 26629599
ISSN: 1552-9924
CID: 1863482
Ambient Particulate Matter Air Pollution Exposure and Mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Cohort
Thurston, George D; Ahn, Jiyoung; Cromar, Kevin R; Shao, Yongzhao; Reynolds, Harmony R; Jerrett, Michael; Lim, Chris C; Shanley, Ryan; Park, Yikyung; Hayes, Richard B
BACKGROUND: Outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been identified as a global health threat, but the number of large U.S. prospective cohort studies with individual participant data remains limited, especially at lower recent exposures. OBJECTIVES: To test the relationship between long-term exposure PM2.5 and death risk from all non-accidental causes, cardiovascular (CVD), and respiratory diseases in 517,041 men and women enrolled in the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort. METHODS: Individual participant data were linked with residence PM2.5 exposure estimates across the continental U.S for a 2000-2009 follow up period when matching census-tract level PM2.5 exposure data were available. Participants enrolled ranged from 50-71 yrs. of age, residing in 6 U.S. States and 2 cities. Cox Proportional Hazard models yielded Hazard Ratio (HR) estimates per 10 microg/m3 of PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with total mortality (HR= 1.03, 95% CI =1.00, 1.05) and CVD mortality (HR=1.10, 95% CI=1.05, 1.15), but the association with respiratory mortality was not statistically significant (HR=1.05, 95% CI=0.98,1.13). A significant association was found with respiratory mortality only among never smokers (HR=1.27; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.56). Associations with 10 microg/m3 PM2.5 exposures in yearly participant residential annual mean, or in metropolitan area-wide mean, were consistent with baseline exposure model results. Associations with PM2.5 were similar when adjusted for ozone exposures. Analyses of California residents alone also yielded statistically significant PM2.5 mortality HR's for total and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 air pollution was associated with an increased risk of total and CVD mortality, providing an independent test of the PM2.5 - mortality relationship in a new large U.S. prospective cohort experiencing lower post-2000 PM2.5 exposure levels.
PMCID:4829984
PMID: 26370657
ISSN: 1552-9924
CID: 1779182
Influence Of Exposure Times On Pollution Related Mortality In The Nih-Aarp Cohort [Meeting Abstract]
Lim, C; Yinon, L; Hayes, R; Cromar, KR; Shao, Y; Ahn, J; Thurston, GD
ISI:000390749602240
ISSN: 1535-4970
CID: 2414572
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene K; Adsuar, Jose C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlov, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabe, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Basara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cardenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Classen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graca; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpe, Fortune G; Gansevoort, Ron T; Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; Gonzalez-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, Jose R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S Jr; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racape, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jurgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sanchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jurgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schottker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Soreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stockl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Tellez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, Jose Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentur, Gokalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J
BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55.8-58.5) of deaths and 41.6% (40.1-43.0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87.9% (86.5-89.3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11.3 million deaths and 241.4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10.4 million deaths and 208.1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1.7 million deaths and 176.9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6.1 million deaths and 143.5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5.5 million deaths and 141.5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4.4 million deaths and 134.0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMCID:4685753
PMID: 26364544
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2033272
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
Murray, Christopher J L; Barber, Ryan M; Foreman, Kyle J; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Jerry P; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M; Achoki, Tom; Ackerman, Ilana N; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsene K; Adsuar, Jose C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Almazroa, Mohammad A; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, H Ross; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Arnlov, Johan; Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Bachman, Victoria F; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Benzian, Habib; Bernabe, Eduardo; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bienhoff, Kelly; Bikbov, Boris; Biryukov, Stan; Blore, Jed D; Blosser, Christopher D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bolliger, Ian W; Bora Basara, Berrak; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R A; Boyers, Lindsay N; Brainin, Michael; Brayne, Carol E; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D; Brooks, Peter M; Brown, Jonathan C; Brugha, Traolach S; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Buckle, Geoffrey C; Budke, Christine M; Bulchis, Anne; Bulloch, Andrew G; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Carabin, Helene; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christophi, Costas A; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M; Coffeng, Luc E; Coggeshall, Megan S; Colistro, Valentina; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Cooke, Graham S; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie T; Coppola, Luis M; Cortinovis, Monica; Criqui, Michael H; Crump, John A; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dansereau, Emily; Dargan, Paul I; Davey, Gail; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Diaz-Torne, Cesar; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Duber, Herbert C; Ebel, Beth E; Edmond, Karen M; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F; Feigin, Valery L; Felson, David T; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G; Ferrari, Alize J; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Furst, Thomas; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gankpe, Fortune G; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Peter; Gibney, Katherine B; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Gosselin, Richard A; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Graetz, Nicholas; Gugnani, Harish C; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Haagsma, Juanita; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hamavid, Hannah; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hancock, Jamie; Hankey, Graeme J; Hansen, Gillian M; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hay, Roderick J; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Higashi, Hideki; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hosgood, H Dean; Hossain, Mazeda; Hotez, Peter J; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Husseini, Abdullatif; Huynh, Chantal; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine K; Karimkhani, Chante; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazanjan, Konstantin; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin A; Khan, Ejaz A; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khang, Young-Ho; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lai, Taavi; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levitz, Carly E; Li, Bin; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Lim, Stephen S; Lind, Maggie; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Lofgren, Katherine T; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katharine J; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lucas, Robyn M; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A; Ma, Stefan; Macintyre, Michael F; Mackay, Mark T; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marzan, Melvin B; Masci, Joseph R; Mashal, Mohammad T; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; Mcgill, Neil W; Mcgrath, John J; Mckee, Martin; Mclain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis A; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mitchell, Philip B; Mock, Charles N; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L D; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Montine, Thomas J; Mooney, Meghan D; Moore, Ami R; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moran, Andrew E; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Moyer, Madeline L; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Msemburi, William T; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murdoch, Michele E; Murray, Joseph; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Nguyen, Grant; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Ohno, Summer L; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Opio, John Nelson; Ortblad, Katrina; Ortiz, Alberto; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Park, Jae-Hyun; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phillips, Bryan K; Phillips, David E; Piel, Frederic B; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polinder, Suzanne; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Pullan, Rachel L; Qato, Dima M; Quistberg, D Alex; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahman, Sajjad U; Raju, Murugesan; Rana, Saleem M; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Richardson, Lee; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Roberts, D Allen; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roth, Gregory A; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rothstein, David H; Rowley, Jane T; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Saeedi, Mohammad Y; Saha, Sukanta; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Sampson, Uchechukwu K A; Sanabria, Juan R; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Scarborough, Peter; Schneider, Ione J; Schottker, Ben; Schumacher, Austin E; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serina, Peter T; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shackelford, Katya A; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shamah Levy, Teresa; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Lavanya; Skirbekk, Vegard; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Sliwa, Karen; Soneji, Samir; Soreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Steiner, Caitlyn; Steiner, Timothy J; Stevens, Antony; Stewart, Andrea; Stovner, Lars J; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taylor, Hugh R; Te Ao, Braden J; Tediosi, Fabrizio; Temesgen, Awoke M; Templin, Tara; Ten Have, Margreet; Tenkorang, Eric Y; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trillini, Matias; Truelsen, Thomas; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin M; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Uzun, Selen B; Van Brakel, Wim H; Van De Vijver, Steven; van Gool, Coen H; Van Os, Jim; Vasankari, Tommi J; Venketasubramanian, N; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy V; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Wagner, Joseph; Waller, Stephen G; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, Jianli; Wang, Linhong; Warouw, Tati S; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Wenzhi, Wang; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Thomas N; Wolfe, Charles D; Wolock, Timothy M; Woolf, Anthony D; Wulf, Sarah; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yentur, Gokalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zonies, David; Zou, Xiaonong; Salomon, Joshua A; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo
BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMCID:4673910
PMID: 26321261
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2033262
Repeated measures of inflammation, blood pressure, and heart rate variability associated with traffic exposures in healthy adults
Mirowsky, Jaime E; Peltier, Richard E; Lippmann, Morton; Thurston, George; Chen, Lung-Chi; Neas, Lucas; Diaz-Sanchez, David; Laumbach, Robert; Carter, Jacqueline D; Gordon, Terry
BACKGROUND: Previous human exposure studies of traffic-related air pollutants have demonstrated adverse health effects in human populations by comparing areas of high and low traffic, but few studies have utilized microenvironmental monitoring of pollutants at multiple traffic locations while looking at a vast array of health endpoints in the same population. We evaluated inflammatory markers, heart rate variability (HRV), blood pressure, exhaled nitric oxide, and lung function in healthy participants after exposures to varying mixtures of traffic pollutants. METHODS: A repeated-measures, crossover study design was used in which 23 healthy, non-smoking adults had clinical cardiopulmonary and systemic inflammatory measurements taken prior to, immediately after, and 24 hours after intermittent walking for two hours in the summer months along three diverse roadways having unique emission characteristics. Measurements of PM2.5, PM10, black carbon (BC), elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC) were collected. Mixed effect models were used to assess changes in health effects associated with these specific pollutant classes. RESULTS: Minimal associations were observed with lung function measurements and the pollutants measured. Small decreases in BP measurements and rMSSD, and increases in IL-1beta and the low frequency to high frequency ratio measured in HRV, were observed with increasing concentrations of PM2.5 EC. CONCLUSIONS: Small, acute changes in cardiovascular and inflammation-related effects of microenvironmental exposures to traffic-related air pollution were observed in a group of healthy young adults. The associations were most profound with the diesel-source EC.
PMCID:4537534
PMID: 26276052
ISSN: 1476-069x
CID: 1721492
The Global Burden of Cancer 2013
Fitzmaurice, Christina; Dicker, Daniel; Pain, Amanda; Hamavid, Hannah; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; MacIntyre, Michael F; Allen, Christine; Hansen, Gillian; Woodbrook, Rachel; Wolfe, Charles; Hamadeh, Randah R; Moore, Ami; Werdecker, Andrea; Gessner, Bradford D; Te Ao, Braden; McMahon, Brian; Karimkhani, Chante; Yu, Chuanhua; Cooke, Graham S; Schwebel, David C; Carpenter, David O; Pereira, David M; Nash, Denis; Kazi, Dhruv S; De Leo, Diego; Plass, Dietrich; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Thurston, George D; Yun Jin, Kim; Simard, Edgar P; Mills, Edward; Park, Eun-Kee; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; deVeber, Gabrielle; Gotay, Carolyn; Khan, Gulfaraz; Hosgood, H Dean 3rd; Santos, Itamar S; Leasher, Janet L; Singh, Jasvinder; Leigh, James; Jonas, Jost; Sanabria, Juan; Beardsley, Justin; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Takahashi, Ken; Franklin, Richard C; Ronfani, Luca; Montico, Marcella; Naldi, Luigi; Tonelli, Marcello; Geleijnse, Johanna; Petzold, Max; Shrime, Mark G; Younis, Mustafa; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Breitborde, Nicholas; Yip, Paul; Pourmalek, Farshad; Lotufo, Paulo A; Esteghamati, Alireza; Hankey, Graeme J; Ali, Raghib; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Malekzadeh, Reza; Dellavalle, Robert; Weintraub, Robert; Lucas, Robyn; Hay, Roderick; Rojas-Rueda, David; Westerman, Ronny; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Nolte, Sandra; Patten, Scott; Weichenthal, Scott; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Shiue, Ivy; Driscoll, Tim; Vasankari, Tommi; Alsharif, Ubai; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Vlassov, Vasiliy V; Marcenes, W S; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Yano, Yuichiro; Artaman, Al; Campos, Ismael; MacLachlan, Jennifer; Mueller, Ulrich; Kim, Daniel; Trillini, Matias; Eshrati, Babak; Williams, Hywel C; Shibuya, Kenji; Dandona, Rakhi; Murthy, Kinnari; Cowie, Benjamin; Amare, Azmeraw T; Antonio, Carl Abelardo; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos; van Gool, Coen H; Violante, Francesco; Oh, In-Hwan; Deribe, Kedede; Soreide, Kjetil; Knibbs, Luke; Kereselidze, Maia; Green, Mark; Cardenas, Rosario; Roy, Nobhojit; Tillman, Taavi; Li, Yongmei; Krueger, Hans; Monasta, Lorenzo; Dey, Subhojit; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Kumar, G Anil; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Dandona, Lalit; Wang, Haidong; Vollset, Stein Emil; Mokdad, Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Lozano, Rafael; Vos, Theo; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Lopez, Alan; Murray, Christopher; Naghavi, Mohsen
IMPORTANCE: Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.
PMCID:4500822
PMID: 26181261
ISSN: 2374-2445
CID: 1668992
Ambient particulate matter air pollution and cardiopulmonary diseases
Thurston, George; Lippmann, Morton
Population exposures to ambient outdoor particulate matter (PM) air pollution have been assessed to represent a major burden on global health. Ambient PM is a diverse class of air pollution, with characteristics and health implications that can vary depending on a host of factors, including a particle's original source of emission or formation. The penetration of inhaled particles into the thorax is dependent on their deposition in the upper respiratory tract during inspiration, which varies with particle size, flow rate and tidal volume, and in vivo airway dimensions. All of these factors can be quite variable from person to person, depending on age, transient illness, cigarette smoke and other short-term toxicant exposures that cause transient bronchoconstriction, and occupational history associated with loss of lung function or cumulative injury. The adverse effects of inhaled PM can result from both short-term (acute) and long-term (chronic) exposures to PM, and can range from relatively minor, such as increased symptoms, to very severe effects, including increased risk of premature mortality and decreased life expectancy from long-term exposure. Control of the most toxic PM components can therefore provide major health benefits, and can help guide the selection of the most human health optimal air quality control and climate change mitigation policy measures. As such, a continued improvement in our understanding of the nature and types of PM that are most dangerous to health, and the mechanism(s) of their respective health effects, is an important public health goal.
PMID: 26024349
ISSN: 1098-9048
CID: 1603812
Particulate Air Pollution and Carotid Artery Stenosis [Letter]
Newman, Jonathan D; Thurston, George D; Cromar, Kevin; Guo, Yu; Rockman, Caron B; Fisher, Edward A; Berger, Jeffrey S
PMCID:4465218
PMID: 25748098
ISSN: 0735-1097
CID: 1494462
