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Higher Mortality in registrants with sudden model for end-stage liver disease increase: Disadvantaged by the current allocation policy

Massie, Allan B; Luo, Xun; Alejo, Jennifer L; Poon, Anna K; Cameron, Andrew M; Segev, Dorry L
Liver allocation is based on current Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, with priority in the case of a tie being given to those waiting the longest with a given MELD score. We hypothesized that this priority might not reflect risk: registrants whose MELD score has recently increased receive lower priority but might have higher wait-list mortality. We studied wait-list and posttransplant mortality in 69,643 adult registrants from 2002 to 2013. By likelihood maximization, we empirically defined a MELD spike as a MELD increase ≥ 30% over the previous 7 days. At any given time, only 0.6% of wait-list patients experienced a spike; however, these patients accounted for 25% of all wait-list deaths. Registrants who reached a given MELD score after a spike had higher wait-list mortality in the ensuing 7 days than those with the same resulting MELD score who did not spike, but they had no difference in posttransplant mortality. The spike-associated wait-list mortality increase was highest for registrants with medium MELD scores: specifically, 2.3-fold higher (spike versus no spike) for a MELD score of 10, 4.0-fold higher for a MELD score of 20, and 2.5-fold higher for a MELD score of 30. A model incorporating the MELD score and spikes predicted wait-list mortality risk much better than a model incorporating only the MELD score. Registrants with a sudden MELD increase have a higher risk of short-term wait-list mortality than is indicated by their current MELD score but have no increased risk of posttransplant mortality; allocation policy should be adjusted accordingly.
PMID: 25762287
ISSN: 1527-6473
CID: 5130552

Virtual populations, real decisions: making sense of stochastic simulation studies [Comment]

Massie, Allan B; Chow, Eric K H; Segev, Dorry L
PMID: 25943233
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 5130622

Perceived frailty and measured frailty among adults undergoing hemodialysis: a cross-sectional analysis

Salter, Megan L; Gupta, Natasha; Massie, Allan B; McAdams-DeMarco, Mara A; Law, Andrew H; Jacob, Reside Lorie; Gimenez, Luis F; Jaar, Bernard G; Walston, Jeremy D; Segev, Dorry L
BACKGROUND:Frailty, a validated measure of physiologic reserve, predicts adverse health outcomes among adults with end-stage renal disease. Frailty typically is not measured clinically; instead, a surrogate-perceived frailty-is used to inform clinical decision-making. Because correlations between perceived and measured frailty remain unknown, the aim of this study was to assess their relationship. METHODS:146 adults undergoing hemodialysis were recruited from a single dialysis center in Baltimore, Maryland. Patient characteristics associated with perceived (reported by nephrologists, nurse practitioners (NPs), or patients) or measured frailty (using the Fried criteria) were identified using ordered logistic regression. The relationship between perceived and measured frailty was assessed using percent agreement, kappa statistic, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and prevalence of misclassification of frailty. Patient characteristics associated with misclassification were determined using Fisher's exact tests, t-tests, or median tests. RESULTS:Older age (adjusted OR [aOR] = 1.36, 95%CI:1.11-1.68, P = 0.003 per 5-years older) and comorbidity (aOR = 1.49, 95%CI:1.27-1.75, P < 0.001 per additional comorbidity) were associated with greater likelihood of nephrologist-perceived frailty. Being non-African American was associated with greater likelihood of NP- (aOR = 5.51, 95%CI:3.21-9.48, P = 0.003) and patient- (aOR = 4.20, 95%CI:1.61-10.9, P = 0.003) perceived frailty. Percent agreement between perceived and measured frailty was poor (nephrologist, NP, and patient: 64.1%, 67.0%, and 55.5%). Among non-frail participants, 34.4%, 30.0%, and 31.6% were perceived as frail by a nephrologist, NP, or themselves. Older adults (P < 0.001) were more likely to be misclassified as frail by a nephrologist; women (P = 0.04) and non-African Americans (P = 0.02) were more likely to be misclassified by an NP. Neither age, sex, nor race was associated with patient misclassification. CONCLUSIONS:Perceived frailty is an inadequate proxy for measured frailty among patients undergoing hemodialysis.
PMCID:4428253
PMID: 25903561
ISSN: 1471-2318
CID: 5130592

Perceptions about hemodialysis and transplantation among African American adults with end-stage renal disease: inferences from focus groups

Salter, Megan L; Kumar, Komal; Law, Andrew H; Gupta, Natasha; Marks, Kathryn; Balhara, Kamna; McAdams-DeMarco, Mara A; Taylor, Laura A; Segev, Dorry L
BACKGROUND:Disparities in access to kidney transplantation (KT) remain inadequately understood and addressed. Detailed descriptions of patient attitudes may provide insight into mechanisms of disparity. The aims of this study were to explore perceptions of dialysis and KT among African American adults undergoing hemodialysis, with particular attention to age- and sex-specific concerns. METHODS:Qualitative data on experiences with hemodialysis and views about KT were collected through four age- and sex-stratified (males <65, males ≥65, females <65, and females ≥65 years) focus group discussions with 36 African American adults recruited from seven urban dialysis centers in Baltimore, Maryland. RESULTS:Four themes emerged from thematic content analysis: 1) current health and perceptions of dialysis, 2) support while undergoing dialysis, 3) interactions with medical professionals, and 4) concerns about KT. Females and older males tended to be more positive about dialysis experiences. Younger males expressed a lack of support from friends and family. All participants shared feelings of being treated poorly by medical professionals and lacking information about renal disease and treatment options. Common concerns about pursuing KT were increased medication burden, fear of surgery, fear of organ rejection, and older age (among older participants). CONCLUSIONS:These perceptions may contribute to disparities in access to KT, motivating granular studies based on the themes identified.
PMCID:4395977
PMID: 25881073
ISSN: 1471-2369
CID: 4968162

Frailty, mycophenolate reduction, and graft loss in kidney transplant recipients

McAdams-DeMarco, Mara A; Law, Andrew; Tan, Jingwen; Delp, Cassandra; King, Elizabeth A; Orandi, Babak; Salter, Megan; Alachkar, Nada; Desai, Niraj; Grams, Morgan; Walston, Jeremy; Segev, Dorry L
BACKGROUND:Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) side effects often prompt dose reduction or discontinuation, and this MMF dose reduction (MDR) can lead to rejection and possibly graft loss. Unfortunately, little is known about what factors might cause or contribute to MDR. Frailty, a measure of physiologic reserve, is emerging as an important, novel domain of risk in kidney transplantation recipients. We hypothesized that frailty, an inflammatory phenotype, might be associated with MDR. METHODS:We measured frailty (shrinking, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity, and slowed walking speed), other patient and donor characteristics, longitudinal MMF doses, and graft loss in 525 kidney transplantation recipients. Time-to-MDR was quantified using an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS:By 2 years after transplantation, 54% of frail recipients and 45% of nonfrail recipients experienced MDR; by 4 years, incidence was 67% and 51%. Frail recipients were 1.29 times (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.01-1.66; P = 0.04) more likely to experience MDR, as were deceased donor recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.92; 95% CI, 1.44-2.54, P < 0.001) and older adults (age ≥ 65 vs <65; aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.96, P = 0.01). Mycophenolate mofetil dose reduction was independently associated with a substantially increased risk of death-censored graft loss (aHR, 5.24; 95% CI, 1.97-13.98, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:A better understanding of risk factors for MMF intolerance might help in planning alternate strategies to maintain adequate immunosuppression and prolong allograft survival.
PMCID:4382409
PMID: 25393156
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 5102432

Public health safety and transplant with increased-risk organs: striking the balance

Batra, Ramesh; Katariya, Nitin; Hewitt, Winston; Mathur, Amit; Reddy, Sudhakar; Moss, Adyr; Segev, Dorry; Singer, Andrew
There is significant variability amongst transplant centers, Organ Procurement Organizations (OPO), members of public, and patients about organs from Public Health Service increased risk donors. This has therefore required regulatory bodies like Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to formulate policies for transplant centers and OPOs to minimize risk of infectious transmission to recipients of solid-organ transplants from such donors.
PMID: 25894120
ISSN: 2146-8427
CID: 5130572

Early changes in liver distribution following implementation of Share 35

Massie, A B; Chow, E K H; Wickliffe, C E; Luo, X; Gentry, S E; Mulligan, D C; Segev, D L
In June 2013, a change to the liver waitlist priority algorithm was implemented. Under Share 35, regional candidates with MELD ≥ 35 receive higher priority than local candidates with MELD < 35. We compared liver distribution and mortality in the first 12 months of Share 35 to an equivalent time period before. Under Share 35, new listings with MELD ≥ 35 increased slightly from 752 (9.2% of listings) to 820 (9.7%, p = 0.3), but the proportion of deceased-donor liver transplants (DDLTs) allocated to recipients with MELD ≥ 35 increased from 23.1% to 30.1% (p < 0.001). The proportion of regional shares increased from 18.9% to 30.4% (p < 0.001). Sharing of exports was less clustered among a handful of centers (Gini coefficient decreased from 0.49 to 0.34), but there was no evidence of change in CIT (p = 0.8). Total adult DDLT volume increased from 4133 to 4369, and adjusted odds of discard decreased by 14% (p = 0.03). Waitlist mortality decreased by 30% among patients with baseline MELD > 30 (SHR = 0.70, p < 0.001) with no change for patients with lower baseline MELD (p = 0.9). Posttransplant length-of-stay (p = 0.2) and posttransplant mortality (p = 0.9) remained unchanged. In the first 12 months, Share 35 was associated with more transplants, fewer discards, and lower waitlist mortality, but not at the expense of CIT or early posttransplant outcomes.
PMCID:6116537
PMID: 25693474
ISSN: 1600-6143
CID: 5139912

Liver sharing and organ procurement organization performance

Gentry, Sommer E; Chow, Eric K H; Massie, Allan; Luo, Xun; Zaun, David; Snyder, Jon J; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bert; Segev, Dorry L
Whether the liver allocation system shifts organs from better performing organ procurement organizations (OPOs) to poorer performing OPOs has been debated for many years. Models of OPO performance from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients make it possible to study this question in a data-driven manner. We investigated whether each OPO's net liver import was correlated with 2 performance metrics [observed to expected (O:E) liver yield and liver donor conversion ratio] as well as 2 alternative explanations [eligible deaths and incident listings above a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score of 15]. We found no evidence to support the hypothesis that the allocation system transfers livers from better performing OPOs to centers with poorer performing OPOs. Also, having fewer eligible deaths was not associated with a net import. However, having more incident listings was strongly correlated with the net import, both before and after Share 35. Most importantly, the magnitude of the variation in OPO performance was much lower than the variation in demand: although the poorest performing OPOs differed from the best ones by less than 2-fold in the O:E liver yield, incident listings above a MELD score of 15 varied nearly 14-fold. Although it is imperative that all OPOs achieve the best possible results, the flow of livers is not explained by OPO performance metrics, and instead, it appears to be strongly related to differences in demand.
PMCID:8270535
PMID: 25556648
ISSN: 1527-6473
CID: 5130522

Identification of strategies to facilitate organ donation among African Americans using the nominal group technique

Locke, Jayme E; Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard; Mannon, Roslyn B; Gaston, Robert; Segev, Dorry L; Mannon, Elinor C; Martin, Michelle Y
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:African Americans are disproportionately affected by ESRD, but few receive a living donor kidney transplant. Surveys assessing attitudes toward donation have shown that African Americans are less likely to express a willingness to donate their own organs. Studies aimed at understanding factors that may facilitate the willingness of African Americans to become organ donors are needed. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:A novel formative research method was used (the nominal group technique) to identify and prioritize strategies for facilitating increases in organ donation among church-attending African Americans. Four nominal group technique panel interviews were convened (three community and one clergy). Each community panel represented a distinct local church; the clergy panel represented five distinct faith-based denominations. Before nominal group technique interviews, participants completed a questionnaire that assessed willingness to become a donor; 28 African-American adults (≥19 years old) participated in the study. RESULTS:In total, 66.7% of participants identified knowledge- or education-related strategies as most important strategies in facilitating willingness to become an organ donor, a view that was even more pronounced among clergy. Three of four nominal group technique panels rated a knowledge-based strategy as the most important and included strategies, such as information on donor involvement and donation-related risks; 29.6% of participants indicated that they disagreed with deceased donation, and 37% of participants disagreed with living donation. Community participants' reservations about becoming an organ donor were similar for living (38.1%) and deceased (33.4%) donation; in contrast, clergy participants were more likely to express reservations about living donation (33.3% versus 16.7%). CONCLUSIONS:These data indicate a greater opposition to living donation compared with donation after one's death among African Americans and suggest that improving knowledge about organ donation, particularly with regard to donor involvement and donation-related risks, may facilitate increases in organ donation. Existing educational campaigns may fall short of meeting information needs of African Americans.
PMID: 25635038
ISSN: 1555-905x
CID: 5130532

A closer look at rituximab induction on HLA antibody rebound following HLA-incompatible kidney transplantation

Jackson, Annette M; Kraus, Edward S; Orandi, Babak J; Segev, Dorry L; Montgomery, Robert A; Zachary, Andrea A
Rituximab has been used to increase the efficacy of desensitization protocols for human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-incompatible kidney transplantation; however, controlled comparisons have not been reported. Here we examined 256 post-transplant HLA antibody levels in 25 recipients desensitized with and 25 without rituximab induction, to determine the impact of B-cell depletion. We found significantly less HLA antibody rebound in the rituximab-treated patients (7% of donor-specific antibodies (DSAs) and 33% of non-DSAs) compared with a control cohort desensitized and transplanted without rituximab (32% DSAs and 55% non-DSAs). The magnitude of the increase was significantly larger among patients who did not receive rituximab. Interestingly, in rituximab-treated patients, of the 39 HLA antibodies that increased post transplant, 34 were specific for HLA mismatches present in previous allografts or pregnancies, implying limited efficacy in memory B-cell depletion. Compared with controls, rituximab-treated patients had a significantly greater mean reduction in DSA (-2505 vs. -292 mean fluorescence intensity), but a similar rate of DSA persistence (52% in rituximab treated-and 40% in non-treated recipients). Thus, rituximab induction in HLA-incompatible recipients reduced the incidence and magnitude of HLA antibody rebound, but did not affect DSA elimination, antibody-mediated rejection, or 5-year allograft survival when compared with recipients desensitized and transplanted without rituximab.
PMCID:4305036
PMID: 25054778
ISSN: 1523-1755
CID: 1979832