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An Overdose Forecasting Dashboard for Local Harm-Reduction Response
Krieger, Maxwell; Yedinak, Jesse; Duong, Ellen; Macmadu, Alexandria; Skinner, Alexandra; Allen, Bennett; Pratty, Claire; Ahern, Jennifer; Cerdá, Magdalena; Marshall, Brandon D L
As the United States grapples with an ongoing overdose crisis, states and jurisdictions are adopting novel approaches to reduce overdose mortality. In one novel approach, public health researchers and leaders in Rhode Island leveraged the state's robust surveillance data and collaborations between government, academic, and community-based organizations (CBOs) to launch the PROVIDENT (PReventing OVerdose using Information and Data from the EnvironmeNT) project, a population-based randomized controlled research trial (NCT05096429) in December 2019. The PROVIDENT trial utilizes machine learning (ML) methods to identify neighborhoods at risk of future overdose deaths at the census-block-group level to inform community-level overdose prevention resource distribution. To disseminate the ML model predictions, our research team developed an interactive, online mapping dashboard in close collaboration with three statewide CBOs. We measured whether these organizations utilized the PROVIDENT dashboard to allocate harm-reduction services based on ML model predictions and collected information about their data-driven decision-making processes. This case study describes how we assembled and piloted this overdose forecasting dashboard for use by CBOs between November 2021 and August 2024. By measuring dashboard logins, completed surveys, and engagement with ongoing training, we illustrate how organizations utilized ML and surveillance data to inform their outreach efforts and generate valuable insights at a neighborhood level.
PMID: 40325596
ISSN: 1524-8399
CID: 5839002
Considerations for the epidemiological evaluation of hyperlocal interventions: A case study of the New York City overdose prevention centers
Allen, Bennett; Moore, Brandi; Jent, Victoria A; Goedel, William C; Israel, Khadija; Collins, Alexandra B; Marshall, Brandon D L; Cerdá, Magdalena
To meet the needs of diverse communities, public health authorities are increasingly reliant on hyperlocal interventions targeting specific health issues and distinct populations. To facilitate epidemiological evaluation of hyperlocal interventions on community-level outcomes, we developed a framework of six practice-based considerations for researchers: spatial zone of impact, temporal resolution of impact, outcome of interest, definition of a plausible comparison group, micro vs. macro impacts, and practitioner engagement. We applied this framework to a case study of an impact evaluation of the New York City (NYC) overdose prevention centers (OPCs) on neighborhood-level drug-related arrests. We used drug arrest data from NYC from January 1, 2014, to September 30, 2023 and US Census data to conduct synthetic control modeling, comparing pre- and post-OPC arrests in the neighborhoods surrounding the two NYC OPCs (East Harlem and Washington Heights). We conducted sensitivity analyses to validate our results and compare our findings with those from a prior published study. Our findings indicate no significant change in drug-related arrests following the OPC openings. The mean absolute differences in daily drug-related arrests between the OPCs and their synthetic controls were 0.63 (p = 0.19) in East Harlem and 0.14 (p = 0.22) in Washington Heights. Sensitivity analyses corroborated our main results. Overall, findings demonstrate how our framework can be used to guide future epidemiological evaluations of diverse, hyperlocal public health interventions.
PMID: 40349434
ISSN: 1873-5347
CID: 5841022
Investigating heterogeneous effects of an expanded methadone access policy with opioid treatment program retention: A Rhode Island population-based retrospective cohort study
Allen, Bennett; Krawczyk, Noa; Basaraba, Cale; Jent, Victoria A; Yedinak, Jesse L; Goedel, William C; Krieger, Maxwell; Pratty, Claire; Macmadu, Alexandria; Samuels, Elizabeth A; Marshall, Brandon D L; Neill, Daniel B; Cerdá, Magdalena
Following federal regulatory changes during the COVID-19 pandemic, Rhode Island expanded methadone access for opioid treatment programs (OTPs) in March 2020. The policy, which permitted take-home dosing for patients, contrasted with longstanding restrictions on methadone. This study used patient-level OTP admission and discharge records to compare six-month retention before and after the policy change. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1,248 patients newly admitted to OTPs between March 18 and June 30 of 2019 (pre-policy) and 2020 (post-policy). We used logistic regression to estimate associations with retention before and after the policy and used a machine learning approach, the Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE)-Scan, to explore heterogeneity in retention across subgroups. Overall, we found no change in retention following the policy, with an adjusted OR of 1.08 (95% CI: 0.80-1.45) and adjusted RR of 1.03 (0.90-1.18). Using HTE-Scan, we identified two subgroups with significantly increased retention above the overall cohort: (1) patients with below high school education and past-month arrest and (2) male, non-Hispanic white or Hispanic/Latino patients reporting heroin or fentanyl use with past-month arrest. We identified no subgroups with significantly decreased retention. Collectively, findings suggest that expanded methadone access may benefit vulnerable populations without harming overall retention.
PMID: 40312833
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 5834322
Mediation of chronic pain and disability on opioid use disorder risk by pain management practices among adult Medicaid patients, 2016-2019
Rudolph, Kara E; Inose, Shodai; Williams, Nicholas T; Hoffman, Katherine L; Forrest, Sarah E; Ross, Rachael K; Milazzo, Floriana; Díaz, Iván; Doan, Lisa; Samples, Hillary; Olfson, Mark; Crystal, Stephen; Cerdá, Magdalena; Gao, Y Nina
We estimated the extent to which different pain management practices, considered together as well as individually, mediated the relationship between chronic pain or physical disability and new-onset opioid use disorder (OUD) in a large cohort of adult Medicaid patients. Considering the plausibility of the assumptions required to identify different mediational estimands, we estimated natural indirect effects when considering mediation through the group of mediators together and estimated interventional indirect effects when considering mediation through each pain management practice individually. We estimated each effect using a nonparametric one-step estimator. The pain management variables we examined mediated all of the total effect of chronic pain on OUD risk and nearly half of the total effect of physical disability on OUD risk. High-dose, long-duration opioid prescribing and co-prescription of opioids with benzodiazepines, gabapentinoids, and muscle relaxants each contributed substantially to the increased risk of OUD due to chronic pain (contributing to 10-37% of the overall effect) and more moderately to the increased risk of OUD due to physical disability (contributing to 3-19% of the overall effect). Antidepressant or anti-inflammatory prescribing and physical therapy generally did not contribute to increased OUD risk, and, in some cases, even contributed to small reductions in risk.
PMID: 40312832
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 5834302
Use of harm reduction practices by state-licensed specialty substance use treatment programs
Desai, Isha K; Burke, Kathryn; Li, Yuzhong; Ganetsky, Valerie; Sugarman, Olivia K; Krawczyk, Noa; Feder, Kenneth A
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Specialty substance use treatment programs may adopt harm reduction practices to protect the health of their patients with opioid use disorder (OUD). Two such harm reduction strategies are distributing naloxone to clients and refraining from discharging clients if they have positive urine drug screens for drugs. The purpose of this study was to understand the prevalence of programs that adopt each of these harm reduction practices and the characteristics of clients attending programs that adopt both practices in a sample of state-licensed substance use treatment programs in New Jersey. METHODS:We conducted a cross-sectional survey of specialty treatment programs in New Jersey about a) naloxone dispensing and b) use of urine toxicology screens in client discharge decisions. We linked this survey to the treatment programs' administrative records of client admissions for OUD treatment between July 2021 to June 2022 (n = 14,838). We estimated the proportion of programs that reported that they adopted each practice. We then examined program and client characteristics associated with applying these harm reduction practices using regression methods. RESULTS:Of 108 programs included in this analysis, 55.6 % dispensed naloxone and 50.9 % did not consider toxicology screens in discharge decisions. Opioid treatment programs (OTP) were significantly more likely to adopt both harm reduction practices than non-OTPs. Clients referred by correctional programs, as opposed to self-referred to treatment, were significantly less likely to attend a program that used either harm reduction practice. CONCLUSIONS:Our findings suggest efforts are needed to increase adoption of harm reduction practices in SUD treatment settings, especially that are not OTPs, and programs serving clients referred by the criminal justice system.
PMID: 40311936
ISSN: 2949-8759
CID: 5834222
Opioid use disorder Cascade of care: defining a taxonomy for measurement
Henry, Brandy F; Krawczyk, Noa; Jordan, Ashly E; Cunningham, Chinazo O; Lincourt, Pat; Hussain, Shazia; Fotinos, Charissa; Williams, Arthur Robin
PMID: 40294037
ISSN: 1097-9891
CID: 5833192
Integration of harm reduction principles and practices within specialty substance use treatment programs in New Jersey: A qualitative study of program leadership
Ganetsky, Valerie S; Feder, Kenneth A; Burke, Kathryn N; Desai, Isha K; Harris, Samantha J; Krawczyk, Noa
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Harm reduction is a philosophical approach to improve the health of people who use drugs (PWUD) that integrates risk reduction, evidence-based treatment, and person-centered care. Specialty substance use treatment programs have historically been siloed from, and often misaligned with, harm reduction principles, but this trend has begun to shift in recent years. This study explored the ways in which some specialty treatment settings are adopting harm reduction principles and practices. METHODS:We conducted qualitative interviews with leaders of 14 New Jersey specialty treatment programs around their opioid use disorder treatment practices. Using thematic analysis, we assessed how aligned treatment practices were with the core pillars, principles, and practice areas outlined in the 2023 Harm Reduction Framework developed by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. RESULTS:Programs described integrating a range of harm reduction principles, including respect for autonomy, low-barrier treatment, and nonpunitive care, into their approach to care. However, several ongoing practices conflicted with these principles, including imposing attendance requirements, lacking an on-site provider to facilitate same-day medication initiation, and use of urine toxicology testing as a major marker of treatment success. Additionally, while many programs were engaging in some overdose prevention practices (e.g., naloxone distribution), few programs offered other risk reduction services. CONCLUSIONS:Findings highlight that significant opportunities remain to better integrate harm reduction principles and practices into specialty substance use treatment facilities to improve the quality of care provided to PWUD.
PMID: 40300695
ISSN: 2949-8759
CID: 5833622
Medication for Opioid Use Disorder and Treatment Retention Among Pregnant Individuals
Ganetsky, Valerie S; Krawczyk, Noa; Kennedy-Hendricks, Alene
IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Treatment retention for pregnant individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD) is critical, especially during the high-potency synthetic opioid (HPSO) era. Current data on the relationship between medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) receipt in specialty substance use treatment facilities and retention are needed for this population. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To examine the association between MOUD inclusion in treatment and 6-month treatment retention among pregnant individuals with OUD in publicly funded specialty treatment facilities during the HPSO era. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This cross-sectional study pooled data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, from the Treatment Episode Data Set-Discharges, a national dataset managed by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration that tracks annual discharges from state-licensed, publicly funded substance use treatment facilities. Individuals who were pregnant at the time of admission, reported an opioid (heroin, nonprescription methadone, or other opiates and synthetics) as their primary substance, and were discharged from ambulatory, nonintensive outpatient facilities were included. Data were analyzed November 2023 to April 2024. EXPOSURE/UNASSIGNED:MOUD inclusion in a treatment episode. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The main outcome was treatment retention (length of stay >6 months vs ≤6 months). To account for the nonrandom assignment to MOUD, inverse probability of treatment-weighted logistic regression models were estimated adjusting for sociodemographics; substance use, mental health, and treatment history; treatment admission-related variables; census division; state policy characteristics; and year fixed effects. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Of 29 981 treatment episodes, most involved individuals aged 25 to 34 years (19 106 [63.7%]). Approximately two-thirds of 29 071 episodes in the final analysis (19 884 [68.4%]) included MOUD across all study years. From 2015 to 2021, MOUD inclusion in treatment episodes increased by 9.1 percentage points, from 65.0% to 74.1%. Treatment episodes with MOUD were associated with greater odds of 6-month treatment retention compared with those without MOUD (adjusted odds ratio, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.72-2.01]). This finding translated to an estimated 14.2 percentage point greater adjusted probability of 6-month retention among treatment episodes with MOUD (43.1%) vs those without it (28.9%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:In this cross-sectional study of treatment episodes from ambulatory, nonintensive facilities, MOUD inclusion among pregnant individuals was associated with significant improvements in treatment retention. However, retention remained low during the HPSO era. These findings underscore the importance of MOUD in improving OUD-related outcomes in this high-risk population.
PMCID:12013350
PMID: 40257794
ISSN: 2574-3805
CID: 5829942
Substance use and psychiatric outcomes following substance use disorder treatment: An 18-month prospective cohort study in Chile
Bórquez, Ignacio; Krawczyk, Noa; Matthay, Ellicott C; Charris, Rafael; Dupré, Sofía; Mateo, Mariel; Carvacho, Pablo; Cerdá, Magdalena; Castillo-Carniglia, Álvaro; Valenzuela, Eduardo
BACKGROUND AND AIMS/OBJECTIVE:Evidence from high-income countries has linked duration and compliance with treatment for substance use disorders (SUDs) with reductions in substance use and improvements in mental health. Generalizing these findings to other regions like South America, where opioid and injection drug use is uncommon, is not straightforward. We examined if length of time in treatment and compliance with treatment reduced subsequent substance use and presence of psychiatric comorbidities. DESIGN/METHODS:Prospective cohort analysis (3 assessments, 18 months) using inverse probability weighting to account for confounding and loss to follow-up. SETTINGS/METHODS:Outpatient/inpatient programs in Región Metropolitana, Chile. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Individuals initiating publicly funded treatment (n = 399). MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Exposures included length of time in (0-3, 4-7, 8 + months, currently in) and compliance with treatment (not completed, completed, currently in) measured in the intermediate assessment (12 months). Primary outcomes were past-month use of primary substance (most problematic) and current psychiatric comorbidities (major depressive episode, panic, anxiety or post-traumatic stress disorders) measured 6 months later (18 months). Secondary outcomes included past month use of alcohol, cannabis, cocaine powder and cocaine paste. FINDINGS/RESULTS:18.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.7%-22.6%] of individuals participated for 3 or fewer months in treatment and 50.1% (95% CI = 45.2%-55.1%) did not complete their treatment plan at 12 months. Participating for 8 + months in treatment was associated with lower risk of past month use of primary substance at 18 months [vs. 0-3 months, risk ratio (RR) = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.38-1.00] and completion of treatment (vs. not completed, RR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.30-0.80). Neither participating 8 + months (vs. 0-3 months, RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.57-1.22) nor treatment completion (vs. not completed, RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.72-1.46) were associated with lower risk of psychiatric comorbidity at 18 months. CONCLUSIONS:Longer time in treatment and compliance with treatment for substance use disorders in Chile appears to be associated with lower risk of substance use but not current comorbid psychiatric conditions 18 months after treatment initiation.
PMID: 39789832
ISSN: 1360-0443
CID: 5805262
Evaluating the predictive performance of different data sources to forecast overdose deaths at the neighborhood level with machine learning in Rhode Island
Halifax, John C; Allen, Bennett; Pratty, Claire; Jent, Victoria; Skinner, Alexandra; Cerdá, Magdalena; Marshall, Brandon D L; Neill, Daniel B; Ahern, Jennifer
OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the predictive performance of different data sources to forecast fatal overdose in Rhode Island neighborhoods, with the goal of providing a template for other jurisdictions interested in predictive analytics to direct overdose prevention resources. METHODS:We evaluated seven combinations of data from six administrative data sources (American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates, built environment, emergency medical services non-fatal overdose response, prescription drug monitoring program, carceral release, and historical fatal overdose data). Fatal overdoses in Rhode Island census block groups (CBGs) were predicted using two machine learning approaches: linear regressions and random forests embedded in a nested cross-validation design. We evaluated performance using mean squared error and the percentage of statewide overdoses captured by CBGs forecast to be in top percentiles from 2019 to 2021. RESULTS:Linear models trained on ACS data combined with one other data source performed well, and comparably to models trained on all available data. Those including emergency medical service, prescription drug monitoring program, or carceral release data with ACS data achieved a priori goals for percentage of statewide overdoses captured by CBGs prioritized by models on average. CONCLUSIONS:Prioritizing neighborhoods for overdose prevention with forecasting is feasible using a simple-to-implement model trained on publicly available ACS data combined with only one other administrative data source in Rhode Island, offering a starting point for other jurisdictions.
PMID: 40164400
ISSN: 1096-0260
CID: 5818492