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Using an Inverted Synthetic Control Method to Estimate Effects of Recent Overdose Good Samaritan Laws, Overall and by Black/White Race

Townsend, Tarlise N; Hamilton, Leah K; Rivera-Aguirre, Ariadne; Davis, Corey S; Pamplin Ii, John R; Kline, David; Rudolph, Kara E; Cerdá, Magdalena
Overdose Good Samaritan Laws (GSLs) aim to reduce mortality by providing limited legal protections when an overdose bystander summons help. Most research into the impact of these laws is dated or potentially confounded by co-enacted naloxone access laws. Lack of awareness and trust in GSL protections, as well as fear of police involvement and legal repercussions, remain key deterrents of help-seeking. These barriers may be unequally distributed by race due to racist policing and drug policies, potentially producing racial disparities in the effectiveness of GSLs for reducing overdose mortality. We used 2015-2019 vital statistics data to estimate the effect of recent GSLs on overdose mortality, overall (eight states) and by Black/white race (four states). Given GSLs' near ubiquity, few unexposed states were available for comparison. We therefore proposed an "inverted" synthetic control method (SCM) to compare overdose mortality in new-GSL states to states with GSLs throughout the analytic period. The estimated relationships between GSLs and overdose mortality, both overall and stratified by Black/white race, were consistent with chance. An absence of effect could result from insufficient protection provided by the laws, insufficient awareness of them, and/or reticence to summon help not addressable by legal protections. The inverted SCM may be useful for evaluating other widespread policies.
PMID: 35872589
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 5276132

Effects of building demolitions on firearm violence in Detroit, Michigan

Kagawa, Rose; Calnin, Benjamin; Smirniotis, Colette; Cerdá, Magdalena; Wintemute, Garen; Rudolph, Kara E
Former industrial cities facing economic challenges and depopulation often experience high levels of firearm and other forms of violence. Within these cities, violent crime often clusters in neighborhoods affected by high levels of vacant and abandoned housing. This study estimates the effects of building demolition in Detroit, Michigan on the subsequent risk of violent crime using property-level data and longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation. The primary outcome is violent Crime Index crimes (homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault). We estimate effects for this category of crimes as a whole and for the subset involving firearms. Drug and other lower-level crimes are included as secondary outcomes. We compare the risk of experiencing each crime type following building demolition in Census blocks and block groups to an estimate of the risk had there been no demolition in the 1-3 quarters prior in 2017. There were >2600 total demolitions in about 1700 blocks in 2017 in Detroit. Nearly all demolished buildings were sourced from tax foreclosures. Estimates suggest the risk for all crime types tested would have been statistically indistinguishable from the observed crime risk had demolitions in the prior 1-3 quarters of 2017 not occurred. Our results run counter to most previous research on this topic, which tends to show a protective effect of demolition on violent crime. Understanding why our results differ may provide important insights into the types of demolition programs with the greatest potential to reduce violent crime.
PMID: 36150449
ISSN: 1096-0260
CID: 5335772

Adolescents' Use of Free Time and Associations with Substance Use from 1991 to 2019

Kreski, Noah T; Cerdá, Magdalena; Chen, Qixuan; Hasin, Deborah S; Martins, Silvia S; Mauro, Pia M; Olfson, Mark; Keyes, Katherine M
PMID: 36127772
ISSN: 1532-2491
CID: 5335382

Fentanyl in Pressed Oxycodone Pills: A Qualitative Analysis of Online Community Experiences with an Emerging Drug Trend

Arya, Simran; Nagappala, Suhas; Krawczyk, Noa; Gi, Yuanqi; Meacham, Meredith C; Bunting, Amanda M
OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:There is a growing concern over the increased prevalence of fentanyl contaminated oxycodone pills, referred to as M30s. The current study is an examination of content on the Reddit social media site in order to understand the perceptions of and experiences with exposure to fentanyl contaminated M30 pills. METHODS:Data include subreddit posts collected from January 1, 2021, to July 28, 2021, from 71 drug-related subreddits using 34 fentanyl-related search terms. A random subsample of 500 posts was examined for thematic analysis. 226 (45.2%) of posts were determined to be relevant and included in the final sample. RESULTS:Over one-third (n = 85, 37.6%) of subreddit posts with mention of fentanyl were related to pressed M30 pills. Three emergent themes related to pressed M30 pills were identified: suspicion of contamination in oxycodone pills was pervasive (51.2%), composition of pills evoked anxiety (40%), and M30 mitigation and testing strategies (29.4%). CONCLUSIONS:Many persons on the online communities of Reddit who use drugs were aware of fentanyl contamination in the current pressed pill market. Reddit offered a space to network with others to discuss harm reduction strategies and anxieties surrounding the pervasiveness of fentanyl in the current drug market.
PMID: 36106770
ISSN: 1532-2491
CID: 5336332

When Effects Cannot be Estimated: Redefining Estimands to Understand the Effects of Naloxone Access Laws

Rudolph, Kara E; Gimbrone, Catherine; Matthay, Ellicott C; Díaz, Iván; Davis, Corey S; Keyes, Katherine; Cerdá, Magdalena
Violations of the positivity assumption (also called the common support condition) challenge health policy research and can result in significant bias, large variance, and invalid inference. We define positivity in the single- and multiple-timepoint (i.e., longitudinal) health policy evaluation setting, and discuss real-world threats to positivity. We show empirical evidence of the practical positivity violations that can result when attempting to estimate the effects of health policies (in this case, Naloxone Access Laws). In such scenarios, an alternative is to estimate the effect of a shift in law enactment (e.g., the effect if enactment had been delayed by some number of years). Such an effect corresponds to what is called a modified treatment policy, and dramatically weakens the required positivity assumption, thereby offering a means to estimate policy effects even in scenarios with serious positivity problems. We apply the approach to define and estimate the longitudinal effects of Naloxone Access Laws on opioid overdose rates.
PMCID:9373236
PMID: 35944151
ISSN: 1531-5487
CID: 5310592

Time use and associations with internalizing symptoms from 1991 to 2019 among US adolescents

Kreski, Noah T; Chen, Qixuan; Olfson, Mark; Cerdá, Magdalena; Hasin, Deborah S; Martins, Silvia S; Mauro, Pia M; Keyes, Katherine M
Introduction/UNASSIGNED:Adolescent time use in recent cohorts is distinguished by large-scale changes, including shifts in parental monitoring, supervision, and adolescent activity patterns, that together may provide a more complete perspective on changing patterns of mental health than can be captured by single risk factors. Methods/UNASSIGNED:To determine whether patterns of adolescent time use explain recent increases in depressive and other internalizing symptoms, we first conducted latent profile analyses of 465,839 adolescents, grades 8/10, from annual, cross-sectional Monitoring the Future surveys, years:1991-2019, using twenty-one variables (e.g., frequency of attending parties) to identify groups based on patterns of time use. Most of the sample was female (51.0%), non-Hispanic white (58.8%), and in grade 8 (52.2%); mean age: 14.60 years (95% CI: 14.57, 14.64). We subsequently examined differences in depressive and other internalizing symptoms between these time use groups over time with survey-weighted logistic regressions producing odds ratios. Results/UNASSIGNED:Analyses derived six groups: part time workers, full time workers, and four groups based on levels of social activities (Low, medium, and high levels, with "High Social" split between those engaged in sports, academics, and community service and those who were not). Internalizing symptoms were predicted by lower socialization, low engagement in activities like sports, academics, and community service, and time spent at a paid job. Adolescents decreasingly engaged in social activities over time, though shifts in time use patterns did not account for much of the overall increase in depressive symptoms. Conclusion/UNASSIGNED:Shifts in adolescent time use do not explain increases in depressive and other internalizing symptoms, which increased across different patterns of time use. Levels of internalizing symptoms were highest among those with low socialization, low recreational engagement, and those working substantial hours. Encouraging socialization, engagement in recreational activities, and providing mental health resources for isolated adolescents may reduce internalizing symptom trends.
PMCID:9365953
PMID: 35968043
ISSN: 2352-8273
CID: 5310602

Intersecting substance use treatment and harm reduction services: exploring the characteristics and service needs of a community-based sample of people who use drugs

Krawczyk, Noa; Allen, Sean T; Schneider, Kristin E; Solomon, Keisha; Shah, Hridika; Morris, Miles; Harris, Samantha J; Sherman, Susan G; Saloner, Brendan
BACKGROUND:Substance use treatment and harm reduction services are essential components of comprehensive strategies for reducing the harms of drug use and overdose. However, these services have been historically siloed, and there is a need to better understand how programs that serve people who use drugs (PWUD) are integrating these services. In this study, we compared treatment and harm reduction services offered by a multistate sample of substance use service providers and assessed how well they align with characteristics and needs of clients they serve early in the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS:We recruited a convenience sample of programs that deliver harm reduction and/or treatment services in ten US states. Program directors participated in a survey assessing the services offered at their program. We also recruited clients of these programs to participate in a survey assessing a range of sociodemographic and health characteristics, substance use behaviors, and health service utilization. We then cross-compared client characteristics and behaviors relative to services being offered through these programs. RESULTS:We collected and analyzed data from 511 clients attending 18 programs that we classified as either offering treatment with medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) (N = 6), syringe service programs (SSP) (N = 8), or offering both MOUD and SSP (N = 4). All programs delivered a range of treatment and harm reduction services, with MOUD & SSP programs delivering the greatest breadth of services. There were discrepancies between services provided and characteristics and behaviors reported by clients: 80% of clients of programs that offered MOUD without SSP actively used drugs and 50% injected drugs; 40% of clients of programs that offered SSP without MOUD sought drug treatment services. Approximately half of clients were unemployed and unstably housed, but few programs offered direct social services. CONCLUSIONS:In many ways, existing programs are not meeting the service needs of PWUD. Investing in innovative models that empower clients and integrate a range of accessible and flexible treatment, harm reduction and social services can pave the way for a more effective and equitable service system that considers the long-term health of PWUD.
PMCID:9400571
PMID: 36002850
ISSN: 1477-7517
CID: 5331682

Trends in cannabis or cocaine-related dependence and alcohol/drug treatment in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay

Mauro, Pia M; Gutkind, Sarah; Rivera-Aguirre, Ariadne; Gary, Dahsan; Cerda, Magdalena; Santos, Erica Chavez; Castillo-Carniglia, Alvaro; Martins, Silvia S
BACKGROUND:In the context of changing cannabis and other drug policy and regulation, concerns may arise regarding drug treatment access and use. We assessed cannabis/cocaine-related dependence and treatment in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. METHODS:Nationally representative cross-sectional household surveys of people ages 15-64 in Argentina (4 surveys, 2006-2017), Chile (7 surveys, 2006-2018), and Uruguay (4 surveys, 2006-2018) were harmonized. We estimated weighted prevalences of cannabis or cocaine-related (cocaine or cocaine paste) dependence, based on meeting 3+ past-year ICD-10 dependence criteria. We estimated weighted prevalences of past-year alcohol/drug treatment use (Argentina, Chile) or use/seeking (Uruguay) among people with past-year cannabis/cocaine-related dependence. We tested model-based prevalence trends over time and described individual-level treatment correlates by country. RESULTS:Cannabis/cocaine dependence prevalence increased in the region starting in 2010-2011, driven by cannabis dependence. Adjusted cannabis dependence prevalence increased from 0.7% in 2010 to 1.5% in 2017 in Argentina (aPD=0.8, 95% CI= 0.3, 1.2), from 0.8% in 2010 to 2.8% in 2018 in Chile (aPD=2.0, 95% CI= 1.4, 2.6), and from 1.4% in 2011 to 2.4% in 2018 in Uruguay (aPD=0.9, 95% CI= 0.2, 1.6). Cocaine-related dependence increased in Uruguay, decreased in Argentina, and remained stable in Chile. Among people with past-year cannabis/cocaine dependence, average alcohol/drug treatment use prevalence was 15.3% in Argentina and 6.0% in Chile, while treatment use/seeking was 14.7% in Uruguay. Alcohol/drug treatment prevalence was lower among people with cannabis dependence than cocaine-related dependence. Treatment correlates included older ages in all countries and male sex in Argentina only. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Alcohol/drug treatment use among people with cannabis/cocaine-related dependence remained low, signaling an ongoing treatment gap in the context of growing cannabis dependence prevalence in the region. Additional resources may be needed to increase treatment access and uptake. Future studies should assess contributors of low treatment use, including perceived need, stigma, and service availability.
PMID: 35939947
ISSN: 1873-4758
CID: 5286592

Divergence Between Individual- and Neighborhood-Level Fatal Overdose Burden: A Population-Based Statewide Study

Cartus, Abigail R; Goedel, William C; Hallowell, Benjamin D; Allen, Bennett; Pratty, Claire; Planey, Arrianna M; Ahern, Jennifer; Cerdá, Magdalena; Marshall, Brandon D L
OBJECTIVES:To compare the characteristics of individual overdose decedents in Rhode Island, 2016-2020 to the neighborhoods where fatal overdoses occurred over the same time period. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective analysis of fatal overdoses occurring between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2020. Using individual- and neighborhood-level data, we conducted descriptive analyses to explore the characteristics of individuals and neighborhoods most affected by overdose. RESULTS:Most overdose decedents during the study period were non-Hispanic White. Across increasingly more White and non-Hispanic neighborhoods, rates of fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years decreased. An opposite pattern was observed across quintiles of average neighborhood poverty. CONCLUSIONS:Rates of fatal overdose were higher in less White, more Hispanic, and poorer neighborhoods, suggesting modest divergence between the characteristics of individuals and the neighborhoods most severely affected. These impacts may not be uniform across space and may accrue differentially to more disadvantaged and racially/ethnically diverse neighborhoods.
PMID: 35882001
ISSN: 2327-2228
CID: 5310572

Cannabis legalization and traffic injuries: exploring the role of supply mechanisms

Kilmer, Beau; Rivera-Aguirre, Ariadne; Queirolo, Rosario; Ramirez, Jessica; Cerdá, Magdalena
BACKGROUND AND AIM/OBJECTIVE:In Uruguay, residents age 18 and older seeking legal cannabis must register with the government and choose one of three supply mechanisms: self-cultivation, non-profit cannabis clubs or pharmacies. This is the first paper to measure the association between type of legal cannabis supply mechanism and traffic crashes involving injuries. DESIGN/METHODS:Ecological study using ordinary least squares regression to examine how department-level variation in registrations (overall and by type) is associated with traffic crashes involving injuries. SETTING/METHODS:Uruguay. CASES/METHODS:532 department-quarters. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Quarterly cannabis registration counts at the department level and incident-level traffic crash data were obtained from government agencies. The analyses controlled for department-level economic and demographic characteristics and, as a robustness check, we included traffic violations involving alcohol for departments reporting this information. Department-level data on crashes, registrations and alcohol violations were denominated by the number of residents ages 18 and older. FINDINGS/RESULTS:From 2013 to 2019, the average number of registrations at the department-quarter level per 10 000 residents age 18 and older for self-cultivation, club membership and pharmacy purchasing were 17.7 (SD = 16.8), 3.6 (SD = 8.6), and 25.1 (SD = 50.4), respectively. In our multivariate regression analyses, we did not find a statistically significant association between the total number of registrations and traffic crashes with injuries (β = -0.007; P = 0.398; 95% CI = -0.023, 0.01). Analyses focused on the specific supply mechanisms found a consistent, positive and statistically significant association between the number of individuals registered as self-cultivators and the number of traffic crashes with injuries (β = 0.194; P = 0.008; 95% CI = 0.058, 0.329). Associations for other supply mechanisms were inconsistent across the various model specifications. CONCLUSIONS:In Uruguay, the number of people allowed to self-cultivate cannabis is positively associated with traffic crashes involving injuries. Individual-level analyses are needed to assess better the factors underlying this association.
PMID: 35129240
ISSN: 1360-0443
CID: 5190752