Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Firearm violence remains a persistent public health threat. Comparing the impact of targeted high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevention may point to efficient and efficacious interventions. We used agent-based modeling to conduct a hypothetical experiment contrasting the impact of high-risk (disqualification) and population-based (price increase) approaches on firearm homicide in New York City (NYC). METHODS:We simulated 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult population of NYC. Three groups were considered and disqualified from all firearm ownership for five years, grouped based on prevalence: low prevalence (psychiatric hospitalization, alcohol-related misdemeanor and felony convictions, 0.23%); moderate prevalence (drug misdemeanor convictions, domestic violence restraining orders, 1.03%); and high prevalence (all other felony/misdemeanor convictions, 2.30%). Population-level firearm ownership was impacted by increasing the price of firearms, assuming 1% price elasticity. RESULTS:In this hypothetical scenario, to reduce firearm homicide by 5% in NYC, 25% of the moderate prevalence group, or 12% of the high prevalence group needed to be effectively disqualified; even when all of the low prevalence group was disqualified, homicide did not decrease by 5%. An 18% increase in price similarly reduced firearm homicide by 5.37% (95% CI 4.43-6.31%). Firearm homicide declined monotonically as the proportion of disqualified individuals increased and/or price increased. A combined intervention that both increased price and effectively disqualified "high-risk" groups achieved approximately double the reduction in homicide as any one intervention alone. Increasing illegal firearm ownership by 20%, a hypothetical response to price increases, did not meaningfully change results. CONCLUSION:A key takeaway of our study is that adopting high-risk versus population-based approaches should not be an "either-or" question. When individual risk is variable and diffuse in the population, "high-risk approaches" to firearm violence need to focus on relatively prevalent groups and be highly efficacious in disarming people at elevated risk to achieve meaningful reductions in firearm homicide, though countering issues of social justice and stigma should be carefully considered. Similar reductions can be achieved with population-based approaches, such as price increases, albeit with fewer such countering issues.

Opioid-related overdose deaths have increased since 2010 in the U.S., but information on trends in opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence is limited due to unreliable data. Multiplier methods are a classical epidemiological technique to estimate prevalence when direct estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We used two different multiplier approaches to estimate OUD prevalence from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimated OUD in National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and based on existing capture-recapture studies, multiplied prevalence by 4.5x. Second, we estimated the probability of drug poisoning death among people with OUD (Meta-analysis indicates 0.52/100,000), and divided the number of drug poisoning deaths in the US by this probability. Estimates were weighted to account for increase in drug-related mortality in recent years due to fentanyl. Estimated OUD prevalence was lowest when estimated in NSDUH with no multiplier, and highest when estimated from vital statistics data without adjustment. Consistent findings emerged with two methods: NSDUH data with multiplier correction, and vital statistics data with multiplier and adjustment. From these two methods, OUD prevalence increased from 2010 to 2014; then stabilized and slightly declined annually (survey data with multiplier, highest prevalence of 4.0% in 2015; death data with a multiplier and correction, highest prevalence of 2.35% in 2016). The number of US adolescent and adult individuals with OUD in 2019 was estimated between 6.7-7.6 million. When multipliers and corrections are used, OUD may have stabilized or slightly declined after 2015. Nevertheless, it remains highly prevalent, affecting 6-7 million US adolescents and adults.

BACKGROUND:Substance-related interactions with the criminal justice system are a potential touchpoint to identify people at risk for firearm violence. We used an agent-based model to simulate the change in firearm violence after disqualifying people from owning a firearm given prior alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanors. METHODS:We created a population of 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult New York City population. RESULTS:Disqualification from purchasing firearms for 5 years after an alcohol-related misdemeanor conviction reduced population-level rates of firearm homicide by 1.0% [95% CI 0.4-1.6%] and suicide by 3.0% [95% CI 1.9-4.0%]. Disqualification based on a drug-related misdemeanor conviction reduced homicide by 1.6% [95% CI 1.1-2.2%] and suicide by 4.6% [95% CI 3.4-5.8%]. Reductions were generally 2 to 8 times larger for agents meeting the disqualification criteria. CONCLUSIONS:Denying firearm access based on a history of drug and alcohol misdemeanors may reduce firearm violence among the high-risk group. Enactment of substance use-related firearms denial criteria needs to be balanced against concerns about introducing new sources of disenfranchisement among already vulnerable populations.

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IMPORTANCE:Benzodiazepines are prescribed for the treatment of adolescent sleep disorders; however, benzodiazepine overdoses occur, often in combination with opioids. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate whether benzodiazepine treatment for sleep disorders, compared with alternative pharmacologic treatments (trazodone, hydroxyzine, zolpidem, zaleplon, and eszopiclone), is associated with increased risk of drug overdose for young people. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:This cohort study included privately insured people 10 to 29 years of age identified from a US commercial claims database (MarketScan), from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018. Young people with a sleep disorder diagnosis initiating benzodiazepine (n = 23 084) or comparator pharmacologic treatments (n = 66 706) were included in the study. Statistical analysis was performed from November 1, 2021, to May 16, 2022. EXPOSURES:New use of benzodiazepine treatment or comparator pharmacologic treatments (defined as ≥1 year without a prescription for benzodiazepine or comparator medications). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Incident diagnosed drug overdoses were identified from inpatient and emergency department records within 6 months of treatment initiation. The propensity score-adjusted cumulative incidence of overdose and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with intention-to-treat (analyzed based on initial treatment) and as-treated analyses (added censoring at treatment discontinuation). Results were stratified by prior prescription opioid fill. RESULTS:The cohort included 23 084 young people initiating benzodiazepine treatment (14 444 female participants [62.6%]; mean [SD] age, 23 [4.1] years) and 66 706 initiating a comparator treatment (38 446 female participants [57.6%]; mean [SD] age, 22 [4.4] years). Six months after treatment initiation, 9.7% (95% CI, 9.3%-10.1%) of benzodiazepine users and 12.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.6%) of the comparator group were still receiving treatment. The crude incidence of drug overdose at 6 months was 0.9% for benzodiazepine initiators and 0.8% for comparator treatment initiators. In adjusted analyses, an increased risk of drug overdose was associated with benzodiazepines vs comparator treatments (intention-to-treat analysis: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.03-1.51]; as-treated analysis: HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.14-1.80]). This association was stronger among young people with a recent prescription opioid fill vs those without a recent prescription opioid fill (as-treated analysis: adjusted HR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.24-3.25] vs adjusted HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.00-1.70]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:The findings of this study suggest that benzodiazepines, compared with alternative pharmacologic treatments for common sleep disorders, were associated with an increased risk of drug overdose among young people during the following 6-month period, especially among those with a recent opioid prescription. Drug overdose is an important safety consideration when treating young people with benzodiazepines.

We developed an agent-based model using a trial emulation approach to quantify effect measure modification of spillover effects of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area, Georgia. PrEP may impact not only the individual prescribed, but also their partners and beyond, known as spillover. We simulated a two-stage randomised trial with eligible components (≥3 agents with ≥1 HIV+ agent) first randomised to intervention or control (no PrEP). Within intervention components, agents were randomised to PrEP with coverage of 70%, providing insight into a high PrEP coverage strategy. We evaluated effect modification by component-level characteristics and estimated spillover effects on HIV incidence using an extension of randomisation-based estimators. We observed an attenuation of the spillover effect when agents were in components with a higher prevalence of either drug use or bridging potential (if an agent acts as a mediator between ≥2 connected groups of agents). The estimated spillover effects were larger in magnitude among components with either higher HIV prevalence or greater density (number of existing partnerships compared to all possible partnerships). Consideration of effect modification is important when evaluating the spillover of PrEP among MSM.