Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:As of July 2018, 45 United States (US) states and the District of Columbia have enacted an overdose Good Samaritan law (GSL). These laws, which provide limited criminal immunity to individuals who request assistance during an overdose, may be of importance in the current wave of the overdose epidemic, which is driven primarily by illicit opioids including heroin and fentanyl. There are substantial differences in the structures of states' GSL laws which may impact their effectiveness. This study compared GSLs which have legal provisions protecting from arrest and laws which have more limited protections. METHODS:Using national county-level overdose mortality data from 3109 US counties, we examined the association of enactment of GSLs with protection from arrest and GSLs with more limited protections with subsequent overdose mortality between 2013 and 2018. Since GSLs are often enacted in conjunction with Naloxone Access Laws (NAL), we examined the effect of GSLs separately and in conjunction with NAL. We conducted these analyses using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson models. RESULTS:GSLs with protections against arrest enactment in conjunction with a NAL were associated with 7% lower rates of all overdose deaths (rate ratio (RR): 0.93% Credible Interval (CI): 0.89-0.97), 10% lower rates in opioid overdose deaths (RR: 0.90; CI: 0.85-0.95) and 11% lower rates of heroin/synthetic overdose mortality (RR: 0.89; CI: 0.82-0.96) two years after enactment, compared to rates in states without these laws. Significant reductions in overdose mortality were not seen for GSLs with protections for charge or prosecution. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:GSLs with more expansive legal protections combined with a NAL, were associated with lower rates of overdose deaths, although these risk reductions take time to manifest. Policy makers should consider enacting and implementing more expansive GSLs with arrest protections to increase the likelihood people will contact emergency services in the event of an overdose.

Criminal justice involved (CJI) individuals with a history of opioid use disorder (OUD) are at high risk of overdose and death in the weeks following release from jail. We developed the Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to investigate OUD/CJI dynamics post-release and the effects of interventions on overdose deaths. The JCCM uses a synthetic agent-based model population of approximately 150,000 unique individuals that is generated using demographic information collected from multiple Chicago-area studies and data sets. We use a high-performance computing (HPC) workflow to implement a sequential approximate Bayesian computation algorithm for calibrating the JCCM. The calibration results in the simulated joint posterior distribution of the JCCM input parameters. The calibrated model is used to investigate the effects of a naloxone intervention for a mass jail release. The simulation results show the degree to which a targeted intervention focusing on recently released jail inmates can help reduce the risk of death from opioid overdose.

HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Greece remains unchanged despite effective response to a recent outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID). Network factors are increasingly understood to drive transmission in epidemics. The primary objective of the study was to characterize MSM in Greece, their sexual behaviors, and sexual network mixing patterns. We investigated the relationship between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and self-reported sex networks in a sample of MSM in Athens, Greece, generated using respondent driven sampling. We estimated mixing coefficients (r) based on survey-generated egonets. Additionally, multiple logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and to assess relationships between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and sociodemographic indicators. A sample of 1,520 MSM participants included study respondents (n = 308) and their network members (n = 1,212). Mixing based on serostatus (r = 0.12, σ_r = 0.09-0.15) and condomless sex (r = 0.11, σ_r = 0.07-0.14) was random. However, mixing based on sex-drug use was highly assortative (r = 0.37, σ_r = 0.32-0.42). This study represents the first analysis of Greek MSM sexual networks. Our findings highlight protective behavior in two distinct network typologies. The first typology mixed assortatively based on serostatus and sex-drug use and was less likely to engage in condomless sex. The second typology mixed randomly based on condomless sex but was less likely to engage in sex-drug use. These findings support the potential benefit of HIV prevention program scale-up for this population including but not limited to PrEP.

BACKGROUND:The rise in opioid-related mortality and opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits has stimulated research on whether broader economic declines, such as the Great Recession, affect opioid-related morbidity. We examine in New York City whether one measure of morbidity-opioid-related ED visits-responded acutely to the large negative "shock" of the Great Recession. METHODS:Data comprise outpatient "treat and release" opioid-related ED visits in New York City for the 72 months spanning January 2006 to December 2011, taken from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (n = 150,246). We modeled the monthly incidence of opioid-related ED visits using Autoregressive, Integrated, Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series methods to control for patterning in ED visits before examining its potential association with the economic shock of the Great Recession. RESULTS:New York City shows a mean of 1761 outpatient ED visits per month for opioid dependence and abuse. Unexpectedly large drops in employment coincide with fewer than expected opioid dependence and abuse ED visits in that same month. The result (coefficient = 0.046, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.002, 0.090) represents a 0.8% drop in overall incidence of opioid dependence and abuse ED visits during the Great Recession. We, however, observe no association between the Great Recession and ED visits for prescription opioid overdose or heroin overdose, or with inpatient ED visits for opioid dependence and abuse. CONCLUSIONS:Findings, if replicated, indicate distinct short-term reductions in opioid-related morbidity following the Great Recession. This result diverges from previous findings of increased opioid use following extended economic downturns.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) among pregnant women has increased dramatically over the past two decades nationally and is associated with increased risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. To increase access to effective treatment, several states have enacted policies mandating priority treatment access. We evaluated the impact of priority access policies on buprenorphine prescriptions to women of childbearing age (15-44).
Method(s): We extracted buprenorphine prescription data from the IQVIA XPonent database from 2006 to 2017, accounting for 90% of national retail outpatient prescriptions. We compared the change in rate of buprenorphine prescriptions dispensed to women of childbearing age by OB/GYN specialists pre-and post-policy enactment in counties in states with a priority access policy with the contemporaneous change in rate in counties in states with no such policy. Rate ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models, adjusted for calendar year, county-level variables (population density, birth rate, race, income, insurance, unemployment), state-level fixed effects, and state-level time-varying policies (Medicaid expansion and policies that consider OUD during pregnancy child abuse, grounds for civil commitment, and/or reportable to child protective services).
Result(s): Priority access policies existed in 17 states and Washington DC in 2006, were enacted in 10 states from 2006 to 2016, and expired in 5 states from 2006 to 2016. The adjusted rate ratio (95% CI) for buprenorphine prescriptions comparing counties in states with priority access policies to counties in states with no such policies was 1.84 (1.49, 2.28).
Conclusion(s): Priority access policies increased buprenorphine prescribing to women of childbearing age. Future research should investigate whether priority access policies could also improve birth outcomes

OBJECTIVE:People experiencing homelessness (PEH) have high rates of substance use, and homelessness may be an important driver of health disparities in the opioid overdose epidemic. However, few studies focus on homelessness among the opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment population. We examine national-level trends in substance use treatment admissions among PEH with OUD. METHODS:This study used data from first-time treatment admissions in the United States from the Treatment Episode Data Set: Admissions (TEDS-A) to examine characteristics and trends of adults experiencing homelessness who entered state-licensed substance use treatment programs for OUD from 2013 to 2017. We used chi-squared analyses to examine changes in characteristics of this population over time and logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with receipt of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) among PEH. RESULTS:Among all adults with OUD entering specialty treatment from 2013 to 2017, 12.5% reported experiencing homelessness. Compared to individuals not experiencing homelessness, PEH were more likely to be male, inject opioids, use cocaine or methamphetamine, and enter into residential detoxification treatment. PEH were less likely to enter outpatient treatment or receive MOUD. From 2013 to 2017, significant increases occurred in the proportion of PEH who had co-occurring psychiatric problems and used methamphetamines. Over time, treatment type shifted significantly from residential detoxification to outpatient treatment. Receipt of MOUD increased among PEH over time (13.7% to 25.2%), but lagged behind increases among individuals not experiencing homelessness. Among PEH, being older was associated with receiving MOUD, while concurrent methamphetamine use [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.63; 95% CI 0.58, 0.69] and living in the southern United States (AOR 0.27; 95% CI 0.25, 0.30) were associated with not receiving MOUD. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The proportion of PEH with OUD who receive medications as part of treatment increased over time, but three quarters of PEH entering treatment still do not receive this highest standard in evidence-based care. The sharp increase observed in concomitant methamphetamine use in this population is concerning and has implications for treatment.

Background: Structural properties of sociometric networks have been associated with behaviors related to HIV transmission. Very few studies, however, have explored the correlation between sociometric network factors and drug injection-related norms. Methods: This exploratory work: (i) describes basic structural qualities of a sociometric risk network of participants in the Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) in Athens, Greece, in the context of a large HIV outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID); (ii) measures HIV prevalence within specific structures within the sociometric risk network of PWID in TRIP; and (iii) explores the association of structural properties of the sociometric risk network in TRIP with drug injection-related norms. Results: The sociometric risk network in TRIP consisted of a large component (n = 241, 67.8%), a few small components (n = 36, 10.1%) with 2-10 individuals each, and some isolates (n = 79, 22.2%). HIV prevalence was significantly higher in the large component (55.6%), the 2-core (59.1%) and 3-core (66.3%) of the large component, and the 3-cliques of the cores. Drug injection-related norms were significantly associated with structural characteristics of the sociometric risk network. A safe behavioral pattern (use of unclean cooker/filter/rinse water was never encouraged) was significantly (p = 0.03) less normative among people who TRIP participants of the 2-core injected with (40.5%) than among network contacts of TRIP participants outside the 2-core (55.6%). On the contrary, at drug-using venues, 2-core members reported that safer behaviors were normative compared to what was reported by those without 2-core membership. Conclusions: Sociometric network data can give useful insights into HIV transmission dynamics and inform prevention strategies.Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2021.1914103 .

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention may not only benefit the individual who uses it, but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, USA from 2015 to 2017. Components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network, but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or control, then within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to PrEP. We estimated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and reported corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% to 90% coverage in the intervention components. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated with an average of 1,551 components identified. Comparing agents randomized to PrEP in 70% coverage components to control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (95% simulation intervals = 0.65, 1.05). Individuals not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful to evaluate possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS/OBJECTIVE:Debates about lowering the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for drivers are intensifying in the United States and other countries, and the World Health Organization recommends the limit for adults should be 0.05%. In January 2016, Uruguay implemented a law setting zero-BAC limit for all drivers. This aimed to assess the effect of this policy on the frequency of moderate/severe-injury and fatal traffic crashes. DESIGN/METHODS:A quasi experimental study in which a synthetic control model was used with controls consisting of local areas in Chile as the counterfactual for outcomes in Uruguay, matched across population counts and pre-intervention period outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted. SETTING/METHODS:Uruguay and Chile. CASES/METHODS:Panel data with crash counts by outcome per locality-month (2013-2017). INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR/UNASSIGNED:A zero-blood alcohol concentration law implemented 9 Jan 2016 in Uruguay, alongside a continued 0.03g/dL BAC threshold in Chile. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Per capita moderate/severe injury (i.e., moderate or severe), severe injury, and fatal crashes (2016-2017). FINDINGS/RESULTS:Our base synthetic control model results suggested a reduction in fatal crashes at 12 months (20.9%; p-value=0.018, 95% CI: [-0.340, -0.061]). Moderate-/severe-injury crashes did not decrease significantly (10.2%, p=0.312 [-.282, .075]). The estimated effect at 24 months was smaller and with larger confidence intervals for fatal crashes (14%; p =0.048 [-.246, -.026]) and largely unchanged for moderate/severe-injury crashes (-9.4%, p=.302 [-.248, .075]). Difference-in-differences analyses yielded similar results. As a sensitivity test, a synthetic control model relying on an inferior treatment-control match pre-intervention (measured by mean squared error) yielded similar sized differences that were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS:Implementation of a law setting a zero blood-alcohol concentration threshold for all drivers in Uruguay appears to have resulted in a reduction in fatal crashes in the following 12 months and 24 months.