Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND AND AIMS/OBJECTIVE:Persons with substance use disorders (SUDs) are at elevated risk of suicide death. We identified novel risk factors and interactions that predict suicide among men and women with SUD using machine learning. DESIGN/METHODS:Case-cohort study. SETTING/METHODS:Denmark. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:The sample was restricted to persons with their first SUD diagnosis during 1995 to 2015. Cases were persons who died by suicide in Denmark during 1995 to 2015 (n = 2774) and the comparison subcohort was a 5% random sample of individuals in Denmark on 1 January 1995 (n = 13 179). MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Suicide death was recorded in the Danish Cause of Death Registry. Predictors included social and demographic information, mental and physical health diagnoses, surgeries, medications, and poisonings. FINDINGS/RESULTS:Persons among the highest risk for suicide, as identified by the classification trees, were men prescribed antidepressants in the 4 years before suicide and had a poisoning diagnosis in the 4 years before suicide; and women who were 30+ years old and had a poisoning diagnosis 4 years before and 12 months before suicide. Among men with SUD, the random forest identified five variables that were most important in predicting suicide; reaction to severe stress and adjustment disorders, drugs used to treat addictive disorders, age 30+ years, antidepressant use, and poisoning in the 4 prior years. Among women with SUD, the random forest found that the most important predictors of suicide were prior poisonings and reaction to severe stress and adjustment disorders. Individuals in the top 5% of predicted risk accounted for 15% of all suicide deaths among men and 24% of all suicides among women. CONCLUSIONS:In Denmark, prior poisoning and comorbid psychiatric disorders may be among the most important indicators of suicide risk among persons with substance use disorders, particularly among women.

OBJECTIVES:The rapid increase in opioid overdose and opioid use disorder (OUD) over the past 20 years is a complex problem associated with significant economic costs for healthcare systems and society. Simulation models have been developed to capture and identify ways to manage this complexity and to evaluate the potential costs of different strategies to reduce overdoses and OUD. A review of simulation-based economic evaluations is warranted to fully characterize this set of literature. METHODS:A systematic review of simulation-based economic evaluation (SBEE) studies in opioid research was initiated by searches in PubMed, EMBASE, and EbscoHOST. Extraction of a predefined set of items and a quality assessment were performed for each study. RESULTS:The screening process resulted in 23 SBEE studies ranging by year of publication from 1999 to 2019. Methodological quality of the cost analyses was moderately high. The most frequently evaluated strategies were methadone and buprenorphine maintenance treatments; the only harm reduction strategy explored was naloxone distribution. These strategies were consistently found to be cost-effective, especially naloxone distribution and methadone maintenance. Prevention strategies were limited to abuse-deterrent opioid formulations. Less than half (39%) of analyses adopted a societal perspective in their estimation of costs and effects from an opioid-related intervention. Prevention strategies and studies' accounting for patient and physician preference, changing costs, or result stratification were largely ignored in these SBEEs. CONCLUSION:The review shows consistently favorable cost analysis findings for naloxone distribution strategies and opioid agonist treatments and identifies major gaps for future research.

BACKGROUND:Big events (i.e., unique historical disruptions) like the COVID-19 epidemic and its associated period of social distancing can transform social structures, social interactions, and social norms. Social distancing rules and the fear of infection have greatly reduced face-to-face interactions, increased loneliness, reduced ties to helping institutions, and may also have disrupted the opioid use behaviors of people who use drugs. This research used Reddit to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the social networks and social processes of people who use opioids. METHODS:Data were collected from the social media forum, Reddit.com. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. (March 5, 2020, to May 13, 2020), 2,000 Reddit posts were collected from the two most popular opioid subreddits (r/OpiatesRecovery, r/Opiates). Posts were reviewed for relevance to COVID-19 and opioid use resulting in a final sample of 300. Thematic analysis was guided by the Big Events framework. RESULTS:The COVID-19 pandemic was found to create changes in the social networks and daily lives among persons who use opioids. Adaptions to these changes shifted social networks leading to robust social support and mutual aid on Reddit, including sharing and seeking advice on facing withdrawal, dealing with isolation, managing cravings, and accessing recovery resources. CONCLUSIONS:Reddit provided an important source of social support and mutual aid for persons who use opioids. Findings indicate online social support networks are beneficial to persons who use opioids, particularly during big events where isolation from other social support resources may occur.

HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Greece remains unchanged despite effective response to a recent outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID). Network factors are increasingly understood to drive transmission in epidemics. The primary objective of the study was to characterize MSM in Greece, their sexual behaviors, and sexual network mixing patterns. We investigated the relationship between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and self-reported sex networks in a sample of MSM in Athens, Greece, generated using respondent driven sampling. We estimated mixing coefficients (r) based on survey-generated egonets. Additionally, multiple logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and to assess relationships between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and sociodemographic indicators. A sample of 1,520 MSM participants included study respondents (n = 308) and their network members (n = 1,212). Mixing based on serostatus (r = 0.12, σ_r = 0.09-0.15) and condomless sex (r = 0.11, σ_r = 0.07-0.14) was random. However, mixing based on sex-drug use was highly assortative (r = 0.37, σ_r = 0.32-0.42). This study represents the first analysis of Greek MSM sexual networks. Our findings highlight protective behavior in two distinct network typologies. The first typology mixed assortatively based on serostatus and sex-drug use and was less likely to engage in condomless sex. The second typology mixed randomly based on condomless sex but was less likely to engage in sex-drug use. These findings support the potential benefit of HIV prevention program scale-up for this population including but not limited to PrEP.

Drug use involves social interactions. Therefore, norms in the proximal environment of people who inject drugs (PWID) can favor behaviors that may result in HIV transmission. This work aimed at studying drug injection-related norms and their potential association with risky behaviors among PWID in Athens, Greece, in the context of economic recession and political activism that followed the fiscal crisis and soon after a recent HIV outbreak had leveled off. The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) was a social network-based approach (June 2013 to July 2015) that involved two groups of PWID seeds-with recent HIV infection and with long-term HIV infection and one control group of HIV-negative PWID. Network contacts of seeds were also enrolled. TRIP participants answered a questionnaire that included items on injection-related norms and behaviors. TRIP recruited 320 PWID (HIV positive, 44.4%). TRIP participants, especially those without HIV, often recalled or perceived as normative among their partners and in their networks some behaviors that can lead to HIV transmission. TRIP participants who recalled that they were encouraged by their regular drug partners to use an unclean syringe were almost twice as likely to report that they share syringes [odds ratio (OR) = 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.86-2.21], or give syringes to someone else (OR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.42-2.04) as those who did not recall such an encouragement. Associations were modified by HIV status. HIV negatives, who were reportedly encouraged to share nonsyringe injecting equipment, were almost 4.5 times as likely to share that material as HIV-negative participants who were not encouraged (OR = 4.59, 95% CI = 4.12-5.11). Further research is needed on the multiple determinants (social, economic, and political) of norms in the social environments of PWID. Since peer norms are associated with risky behaviors, interventions should be developed to encourage norms and peer pressure against the sharing of injection equipment.

OBJECTIVE:We aimed to determine the effectiveness of various preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prescription strategies for African-American women impacted by mass incarceration within an urban setting. DESIGN/METHODS:An agent-based model was utilized to evaluate prevention strategies in an efficient, ethical manner. By defining agents, their characteristics and relationships, we assessed population-level effects of PrEP on HIV incidence. METHODS:We tested hypothetical PrEP prescription strategies within a simulation representing the African-American population of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Four strategies were evaluated: PrEP for women meeting CDC indicators regarding partner characteristics, PrEP for women with a recently incarcerated male partner, PrEP for women with a recently released male partner and couples-based PrEP at time of release. Interventions occurred alongside scale-up of HAART. We evaluated reductions in HIV transmissions, the number of persons on PrEP needed to avert one HIV transmission (NNT) and the resulting proportions of people on PrEP. RESULTS:Scenarios prescribing PrEP based on criminal justice system involvement reduced HIV transmissions. The NNT ranged from 147 (couples-based scenario) to 300 (recently released scenario). The percentage of the female population covered by PrEP at any one time ranged from 0.14% (couples-based) to 10.8% (CDC-based). CDC-guideline scenarios were consistently less efficient compared to the justice-involved interventions. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Expanding PrEP for African-American women and their male partners affected by incarceration should be considered in national HIV prevention goals and correctional facilities leveraged as intervention sites. Partner characteristics in the current CDC indications may be more effective and efficient if guidelines considered criminal justice involvement.

BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 pandemic poses significant challenges to people with opioid use disorder (OUD). As localities enforce lockdowns and pass emergency OUD treatment regulations, questions arise about how these changes will affect access and retention in care. In this study, we explore the influence of COVID-19 on access to, experiences with, and motivations for OUD treatment through a qualitative analysis of public discussion forums on Reddit. METHODS:We collected data from Reddit, a free and international online platform dedicated to public discussions and user-generated content. We extracted 1000 of the most recent posts uploaded between March 5th and May 13th, 2020 from each of the two most popular opioid subreddits "r/Opiates" and "r/OpiatesRecovery" (total 2000). We reviewed posts for relevance to COVID-19 and opioid use and coded content using a hybrid inductive-deductive approach. Thematic analysis identified common themes related to study questions of interest. RESULTS:Of 2000 posts reviewed, 300 (15%) discussed topics related to the intersection of opioid use and COVID-19. Five major themes related to OUD treatment were identified: Concern about closure of OUD treatment services; transition to telehealth and virtual care; methadone treatment requirements and increased exposure to COVID-19; reactions to changing regulations on medications for OUD; and influences of the pandemic on treatment motivation and progress. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:In the face of unprecedented challenges due to COVID-19, reactions of Reddit opioid forum users ranged from increased distress in accessing and sustaining treatment, to encouragement surrounding new modes of treatment and opportunities to engage in care. New and less restrictive avenues for treatment were welcomed by many, but questions remain about how new norms and policy changes will be sustained beyond this pandemic and impact OUD treatment access and outcomes long-term.

BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 pandemic is creating severe issues for healthcare and broad social structures, exposing societal vulnerabilities. Among the populations affected by COVID-19 are people engaged in substance use, such as people who smoke; vape (e-cigarette use); use opioids, cannabis, alcohol, or psychoactive prescription drugs; or have a substance use disorder (SUD). Monitoring substance use and SUD during the pandemic is essential, as people who engage in substance use or present with SUD are at greater risk for COVID-19, and the economic and social changes resulting from the pandemic may aggravate SUD. There have been several reviews focused on COVID-19 in relation to substance use and SUD. Reviews generally did not consider on a large range of substance use variants or SUDs. We plan a scoping review that seeks to fill gaps in our current understanding of substance use and SUD, in the COVID-19 era. METHODS:A scoping review focused on substance use and SUD, in relation to COVID-19, will be conducted. We will search (from January 2020 onwards) Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Africa-Wide Information, Web of Science Core Collection, Embase, Global Health, WHO Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease Database, WHO Global Index Medicus, PsycINFO, PubMed, Middle Eastern Central Asian Studies, CINAHL Complete, and Sociological Abstracts. Grey literature will be identified using Disaster Lit, Google Scholar, HSRProj, governmental websites, and clinical trials registries (e.g., ClinicalTrial.gov , World Health Organization, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and International Standard Randomized Con-trolled Trial Number registry). Study selection will conform to Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewers' Manual 2015 Methodology for JBI Scoping Reviews. Only English language, original studies investigating substance use and SUD, in relation to COVID-19 in all populations and settings, will be considered for inclusion. Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, full-text articles, and abstract data. A narrative summary of findings will be conducted. Data analysis will involve quantitative (e.g., frequencies) and qualitative (e.g., content and thematic analysis) methods. DISCUSSION:Original research is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 on substance use and SUD. The planned scoping review will help to address this gap. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION:Open Science Framework (osf/io/tzgm5).