Faculty Bibliography

This paper reviews and then discusses selected findings from a seventeen year study about the population prevalence of people who inject drugs (PWID) and of HIV prevalence and mortality among PWID in 96 large US metropolitan areas. Unlike most research, this study was conducted with the metropolitan area as the level of analysis. It found that metropolitan area measures of income inequality and of structural racism predicted all of these outcomes, and that rates of arrest for heroin and/or cocaine predicted HIV prevalence and mortality but did not predict changes in PWID population prevalence. Income inequality and measures of structural racism were associated with hard drug arrests or other properties of policing. These findings, whose limitations and implications for further research are discussed, suggest that efforts to respond to HIV and to drug injection should include supra-individual efforts to reduce both income inequality and racism. At a time when major social movements in many countries are trying to reduce inequality, racism and oppression (including reforming drug laws), these macro-social issues in public health should be both addressable and a priority in both research and action.

BACKGROUND:To our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood. METHOD/METHODS:Participants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years. RESULTS:A cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80). CONCLUSIONS:A cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.

OBJECTIVES:To assess the association between medical marijuana laws (MMLs) and the odds of a positive opioid test, an indicator for prior use. METHODS:We analyzed 1999-2013 Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 18 states that tested for alcohol and other drugs in at least 80% of drivers who died within 1 hour of crashing (n = 68 394). Within-state and between-state comparisons assessed opioid positivity among drivers crashing in states with an operational MML (i.e., allowances for home cultivation or active dispensaries) versus drivers crashing in states before a future MML was operational. RESULTS:State-specific estimates indicated a reduction in opioid positivity for most states after implementation of an operational MML, although none of these estimates were significant. When we combined states, we observed no significant overall association (odds ratio [OR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.61, 1.03). However, age-stratified analyses indicated a significant reduction in opioid positivity for drivers aged 21 to 40 years (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.37, 0.67; interaction P < .001). CONCLUSIONS:Operational MMLs are associated with reductions in opioid positivity among 21- to 40-year-old fatally injured drivers and may reduce opioid use and overdose.

Gunfire from assaults, suicides, and unintentional shootings exacts an enormous burden on public health globally. The epidemiologic reviews in this special issue enhance our understanding of various forms of gun violence, inform interventions, and help chart directions for future research. The available science, however, is limited to answer many important questions necessary for mounting successful efforts to reduce gun violence. Certain data are lacking, and there are numerous analytical challenges to deriving unbiased estimates of policy impacts. Significant investments in research over the long term are warranted to answer questions central to successful prevention of gun violence.

Firearms account for a substantial proportion of external causes of death, injury, and disability across the world. Legislation to regulate firearms has often been passed with the intent of reducing problems related to their use. However, lack of clarity around which interventions are effective remains a major challenge for policy development. Aiming to meet this challenge, we systematically reviewed studies exploring the associations between firearm-related laws and firearm homicides, suicides, and unintentional injuries/deaths. We restricted our search to studies published from 1950 to 2014. Evidence from 130 studies in 10 countries suggests that in certain nations the simultaneous implementation of laws targeting multiple firearms restrictions is associated with reductions in firearm deaths. Laws restricting the purchase of (e.g., background checks) and access to (e.g., safer storage) firearms are also associated with lower rates of intimate partner homicides and firearm unintentional deaths in children, respectively. Limitations of studies include challenges inherent to their ecological design, their execution, and the lack of robustness of findings to model specifications. High quality research on the association between the implementation or repeal of firearm legislation (rather than the evaluation of existing laws) and firearm injuries would lead to a better understanding of what interventions are likely to work given local contexts. This information is key to move this field forward and for the development of effective policies that may counteract the burden that firearm injuries pose on populations.

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:After major policy changes in the United States, policymakers, health care professionals, and the general public seek information about whether recreational cannabis use is associated with physical health problems later in life. OBJECTIVE:To test associations between cannabis use over 20 years and a variety of physical health indexes at early midlife. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Participants belonged to a representative birth cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand, in 1972 and 1973 and followed to age 38 years, with 95% retention (the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study). We tested whether cannabis use from ages 18 to 38 years was associated with physical health at age 38, even after controlling for tobacco use, childhood health, and childhood socioeconomic status. We also tested whether cannabis use from ages 26 to 38 years was associated with within-individual health decline using the same measures of health at both ages. EXPOSURES/METHODS:We assessed frequency of cannabis use and cannabis dependence at ages 18, 21, 26, 32, and 38 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/METHODS:We obtained laboratory measures of physical health (periodontal health, lung function, systemic inflammation, and metabolic health), as well as self-reported physical health, at ages 26 and 38 years. RESULTS:The 1037 study participants were 51.6% male (n = 535). Of these, 484 had ever used tobacco daily and 675 had ever used cannabis. Cannabis use was associated with poorer periodontal health at age 38 years and within-individual decline in periodontal health from ages 26 to 38 years. For example, cannabis joint-years from ages 18 to 38 years was associated with poorer periodontal health at age 38 years, even after controlling for tobacco pack-years (β = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.05-0.18; P <.001). Additionally, cannabis joint-years from ages 26 to 38 years was associated with poorer periodontal health at age 38 years, even after accounting for periodontal health at age 26 years and tobacco pack-years (β = 0.10; 95% CI, 0.05-0.16; P <.001) However, cannabis use was unrelated to other physical health problems. Unlike cannabis use, tobacco use was associated with worse lung function, systemic inflammation, and metabolic health at age 38 years, as well as within-individual decline in health from ages 26 to 38 years. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:Cannabis use for up to 20 years is associated with periodontal disease but is not associated with other physical health problems in early midlife.

AIMS/OBJECTIVE:To estimate the influence of non-medical use of prescription opioids (NMUPO) on heroin initiation among US veterans receiving medical care. DESIGN/METHODS:Using a multivariable Cox regression model, we analyzed data from a prospective, multi-site, observational study of HIV-infected and an age/race/site-matched control group of HIV-uninfected veterans in care in the United States. Approximately annual behavioral assessments were conducted and contained self-reported measures of NMUPO and heroin use. SETTING/METHODS:Veterans Health Administration (VHA) infectious disease and primary care clinics in Atlanta, Baltimore, New York, Houston, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Washington, DC. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:A total of 3396 HIV-infected and uninfected patients enrolled into the Veterans Aging Cohort Study who reported no life-time NMUPO or heroin use, had no opioid use disorder diagnoses at baseline and who were followed between 2002 and 2012. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:The primary outcome measure was self-reported incident heroin use and the primary exposure of interest was new-onset NMUPO. Our final model was adjusted for socio-demographics, pain interference, prior diagnoses of post-traumatic stress disorder and/or depression and self-reported other substance use. FINDINGS/RESULTS:Using a multivariable Cox regression model, we found that non-medical use of prescription opioids NMUPO was associated positively and independently with heroin initiation [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 5.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.01, 7.35]. CONCLUSIONS:New-onset non-medical use of prescription opioids (NMUPO) is a strong risk factor for heroin initiation among HIV-infected and uninfected veterans in the United States who reported no previous history of NMUPO or illicit opioid use.