Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Delays to timely admission from emergency departments (EDs) are known to harm patients. OBJECTIVE:To assess and quantify the increased risk of death resulting from delays to inpatient admission from EDs, using Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data in England. METHODS:A cross-sectional, retrospective observational study was carried out of patients admitted from every type 1 (major) ED in England between April 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was death from all causes within 30 days of admission. Observed mortality was compared with expected mortality, as calculated using a logistic regression model to adjust for sex, age, deprivation, comorbidities, hour of day, month, previous ED attendances/emergency admissions and crowding in the department at the time of the attendance. RESULTS:Between April 2016 and March 2018, 26 738 514 people attended an ED, with 7 472 480 patients admitted relating to 5 249 891 individual patients, who constituted the study's dataset. A total of 433 962 deaths occurred within 30 days. The overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 8.71% (95% CI 8.69% to 8.74%). A statistically significant linear increase in mortality was found from 5 hours after time of arrival at the ED up to 12 hours (when accurate data collection ceased) (p<0.001). The greatest change in the 30-day standardised mortality ratio was an 8% increase, occurring in the patient cohort that waited in the ED for more than 6 to 8 hours from the time of arrival. CONCLUSIONS:Delays to hospital inpatient admission for patients in excess of 5 hours from time of arrival at the ED are associated with an increase in all-cause 30-day mortality. Between 5 and 12 hours, delays cause a predictable dose-response effect. For every 82 admitted patients whose time to inpatient bed transfer is delayed beyond 6 to 8 hours from time of arrival at the ED, there is one extra death.

BACKGROUND:Reducing costs while increasing or maintaining quality is crucial to delivering high value care. OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of a hospital value-based management programme on cost and quality. DESIGN/METHODS:Time series analysis of non-psychiatric, non-rehabilitation, non-newborn patients discharged between 1 September 2011 and 31 December 2017 from a US urban, academic medical centre. INTERVENTION/METHODS:NYU Langone Health instituted an institution-wide programme in April 2014 to increase value of healthcare, defined as health outcomes achieved per dollar spent. Key features included joint clinical and operational leadership; granular and transparent cost accounting; dedicated project support staff; information technology support; and a departmental shared savings programme. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Change in variable direct costs; secondary outcomes included changes in length of stay, readmission and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS:The programme chartered 74 projects targeting opportunities in supply chain management (eg, surgical trays), operational efficiency (eg, discharge optimisation), care of outlier patients (eg, those at end of life) and resource utilisation (eg, blood management). The study cohort included 160 434 hospitalisations. Adjusted variable costs decreased 7.7% over the study period. Admissions with medical diagnosis related groups (DRG) declined an average 0.20% per month relative to baseline. Admissions with surgical DRGs had an early increase in costs of 2.7% followed by 0.37% decrease in costs per month. Mean expense per hospitalisation improved from 13% above median for teaching hospitals to 2% above median. Length of stay decreased by 0.25% per month relative to prior trends (95% CI -0.34 to 0.17): approximately half a day by the end of the study period. There were no significant changes in 30-day same-hospital readmission or in-hospital mortality. Estimated institutional savings after intervention costs were approximately $53.9 million. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Observational analysis. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:A systematic programme to increase healthcare value by lowering the cost of care without compromising quality is achievable and sustainable over several years.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. METHODS: We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. FINDINGS: Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0.0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0.11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0.05-0.16, p<0.0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. INTERPRETATION: Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. FUNDING: Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.

BACKGROUND: -In March 2008, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended stopping antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) for those at risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing dental procedures in the United Kingdom, citing a lack of evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. We have performed a new economic evaluation of AP on the basis of contemporary estimates of efficacy, adverse events, and resource implications. METHODS: -A decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was used. Health service costs and benefits (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) were estimated. Rates of IE before and after the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance were available to estimate prophylactic efficacy. AP adverse event rates were derived from recent UK data, and resource implications were based on English Hospital Episode Statistics. RESULTS: -AP was less costly and more effective than no AP for all patients at risk of IE. The results are sensitive to AP efficacy, but efficacy would have to be substantially lower for AP not to be cost-effective. AP was even more cost-effective in patients at high risk of IE. Only a marginal reduction in annual IE rates (1.44 cases in high-risk and 33 cases in all at-risk patients) would be required for AP to be considered cost-effective at pound20 000 ($26 600) per quality-adjusted life-year. Annual cost savings of pound5.5 to pound8.2 million ($7.3-$10.9 million) and health gains >2600 quality-adjusted life-years could be achieved from reinstating AP in England. CONCLUSIONS: -AP is cost-effective for preventing IE, particularly in those at high risk. These findings support the cost-effectiveness of guidelines recommending AP use in high-risk individuals.

Aims: There are scant comparative data quantifying the risk of infective endocarditis (IE) and associated mortality in individuals with predisposing cardiac conditions. Methods and results: English hospital admissions for conditions associated with increased IE risk were followed for 5 years to quantify subsequent IE admissions. The 5-year risk of IE or dying during an IE admission was calculated for each condition and compared with the entire English population as a control. Infective endocarditis incidence in the English population was 36.2/million/year. In comparison, patients with a previous history of IE had the highest risk of recurrence or dying during an IE admission [odds ratio (OR) 266 and 215, respectively]. These risks were also high in patients with prosthetic valves (OR 70 and 62) and previous valve repair (OR 77 and 60). Patients with congenital valve anomalies (currently considered 'moderate risk') had similar levels of risk (OR 66 and 57) and risks in other 'moderate-risk' conditions were not much lower. Congenital heart conditions (CHCs) repaired with prosthetic material (currently considered 'high risk' for 6 months following surgery) had lower risk than all 'moderate-risk' conditions-even in the first 6 months. Infective endocarditis risk was also significant in patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices. Conclusion: These data confirm the high IE risk of patients with a history of previous IE, valve replacement, or repair. However, IE risk in some 'moderate-risk' patients was similar to that of several 'high-risk' conditions and higher than repaired CHC. Guidelines for the risk stratification of conditions predisposing to IE may require re-evaluation.

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:Patients with poor glycaemic control have a high risk for major cardiovascular events. Improving glycaemic monitoring in patients with diabetes can improve morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE:To assess the effectiveness of a patient portal message in prompting patients with poorly controlled diabetes without a recent glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) result to have their HbA1c repeated. DESIGN/METHODS:A pragmatic, randomised clinical trial. SETTING/METHODS:A large academic health system consisting of over 350 ambulatory practices. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Patients who had an HbA1c greater than 10% who had not had a repeat HbA1c in the prior 6 months. EXPOSURES/METHODS:A single electronic health record (EHR)-based patient portal message to prompt patients to have a repeat HbA1c test versus usual care. MAIN OUTCOMES/RESULTS:The primary outcome was a follow-up HbA1c test result within 90 days of randomisation. RESULTS:The study included 2573 patients with a mean (SD) HbA1c of 11.2%. Among 1317 patients in the intervention group, 24.2% had follow-up HbA1c tests completed within 90 days, versus 21.1% of 1256 patients in the control group (p=0.07). Patients in the intervention group were more likely to log into the patient portal within 60 days as compared with the control group (61.2% vs 52.3%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Among patients with poorly controlled diabetes and no recent HbA1c result, a brief patient portal message did not significantly increase follow-up testing but did increase patient engagement with the patient portal. Automated patient messages could be considered as a part of multipronged efforts to involve patients in their diabetes care.

Inflammation is the body's response to infection, trauma or injury and is activated in a coordinated fashion to ensure the restoration of tissue homeostasis and healthy physiology. This process requires communication between stromal cells resident to the tissue compartment and infiltrating immune cells which is dysregulated in disease. Clinical innovations in patient diagnosis and stratification include measures of inflammatory activation that support the assessment of patient prognosis and response to therapy. We propose that (i) the recent advances in fast, dynamic monitoring of inflammatory markers (e.g., cytokines) and (ii) data-dependent theoretical and computational modeling of inflammatory marker dynamics will enable the quantification of the inflammatory response, identification of optimal, disease-specific biomarkers and the design of personalized interventions to improve patient outcomes - multidisciplinary efforts in which biomedical engineers may potentially contribute. To illustrate these ideas, we describe the actions of cytokines, acute phase proteins and hormones in the inflammatory response and discuss their role in local wounds, COVID-19, cancer, autoimmune diseases, neurodegenerative diseases and aging, with a central focus on cardiac surgery. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities involved in tracking and modulating inflammation in clinical settings.

Objectives Improve concordance between patient end-of-life preferences and code status orders by incorporating data from a state registry with Clinical Decision Support (CDS) within the electronic health record (EHR) to preserve patient autonomy and ensure that patients receive care that aligns with their wishes. Methods Leveraging a Health Information exchange (HIE) interface between the New York State Medical Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (eMOLST) registry and the EHR of our academic health system, we developed a bundled CDS intervention that displays eMOLST information at the time of code status ordering and provides an in-line alert when providers enter a resuscitation order discordant with wishes documented in the eMOLST registry. To evaluate this intervention, we performed a segmented regression analysis of an interrupted times series to compare percentage of discordant orders before and after implementation among all hospitalizations for which an eMOLST was available. Results We identified a total of 3648 visits that had an eMOLST filed prior to inpatient admission and a code status order placed during admission. There was a statistically significant decrease of discordant resuscitation orders of -5.95% after the intervention went live, with a relative risk reduction of 25%, [95% CI: -9.95%, -1.94%, p=0.009] in the pre- and post-intervention period. Logistic regression model after adjusting for co-variates showed an average marginal effect of -5.12% after the intervention [CI =-9.75%, -0.50%, p=0.03]. Conclusions Our intervention resulted in a decrease in discordant resuscitation orders. This study demonstrates that accessibility to eMOLST data within the provider workflow supported by CDS can reduce discrepancies between patient end-of-life wishes and hospital code status orders.