Faculty Bibliography

California's Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) substantially expanded funding of county mental health services through a state tax, and led to broad prevention efforts and intensive services for individuals experiencing serious mental disorders. We estimated the associations between MHSA and mortality due to suicide, homicide, and acute effects of alcohol. Using annual cause-specific mortality data for each US state and the District of Columbia from 1976-2015, we used a generalization of the quasi-experimental synthetic control method to predict California's mortality rate for each outcome in the absence of MHSA using a weighted combination of comparison states. We calculated the association between MHSA and each outcome as the absolute difference and percentage difference between California's observed and predicted average annual rates over the postintervention years (2007-2015). MHSA was associated with modest decreases in average annual rates of homicide (-0.81/100,000 persons, corresponding to a 13% reduction) and mortality from acute alcohol effects (-0.35/100,000 persons, corresponding to a 12% reduction). Placebo test inference suggested that the associations were unlikely to be due to chance. MHSA was not associated with suicide. Protective associations with mortality due to homicide and acute alcohol effects provide evidence for modest health benefits of MHSA at the population level.

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Latino people in the US are experiencing higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than any other racial/ethnic group, but it is unclear which sociodemographic subgroups within this diverse population are most affected. Such information is necessary to target policies that prevent further excess mortality and reduce inequities. Using death certificate data for January 1, 2016 through February 29, 2020 and time-series models, we estimated the expected weekly deaths among Latino people in California from March 1 through October 3, 2020. We quantified excess mortality as observed minus expected deaths and risk ratios (RR) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. We considered subgroups categorized by age, sex, nativity, country of birth, educational attainment, occupation, and combinations of these factors. Our results indicate that during the first seven months of the pandemic, Latino deaths in California exceeded expected deaths by 10,316, a 31% increase. Excess death rates were greatest for individuals born in Mexico (RR 1.44; 95% PI, 1.41, 1.48) or a Central American country (RR 1.49; 95% PI, 1.37, 1.64), with less than a high school degree (RR 1.41; 95% PI, 1.35, 1.46), or in food-and-agriculture (RR 1.60; 95% PI, 1.48, 1.74) or manufacturing occupations (RR 1.59; 95% PI, 1.50, 1.69). Immigrant disadvantages in excess death were magnified among working-age Latinos in essential occupations. In sum, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted mortality among Latino immigrants, especially those in unprotected essential jobs. Interventions to reduce these inequities should include targeted vaccination, workplace safety enforcement, and expanded access to medical care and economic support.

COVID-19 mortality increases dramatically with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts can have conflicting implications because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota--demographically divergent states--we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups. Vaccination schemas directly implicate equitability of access, both domestically and globally.

BACKGROUND:Despite the widespread institution of modern massive transfusion protocols with balanced blood product ratios, survival for patients with traumatic hemorrhage receiving ultramassive transfusion (UMT) (defined as ≥20 U of packed red blood cells [RBCs]) in 24 hours) remains low and resource consumption remains high. Therefore, we aimed to identify factors associated with mortality in trauma patients receiving UMT in the modern resuscitation era. METHODS:An Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter retrospective study of 461 trauma patients from 17 trauma centers who received ≥20 U of RBCs in 24 hours was performed (2014-2019). Multivariable logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree analysis were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with mortality. RESULTS:The 461 patients were young (median age, 35 years), male (82%), severely injured (median Injury Severity Score, 33), in shock (median shock index, 1.2; base excess, -9), and transfused a median of 29 U of RBCs, 22 U of fresh frozen plasma (FFP), and 24 U of platelets (PLT). Mortality was 46% at 24 hours and 65% at discharge. Transfusion of RBC/FFP ≥1.5:1 or RBC/PLT ≥1.5:1 was significantly associated with mortality, most pronounced for the 18% of patients who received both RBC/PLT and RBC/FFP ≥1.5:1 (odds ratios, 3.11 and 2.81 for mortality at 24 hours and discharge; both p < 0.01). Classification and Regression Tree identified that age older than 50 years, low initial Glasgow Coma Scale, thrombocytopenia, and resuscitative thoracotomy were associated with low likelihood of survival (14-26%), while absence of these factors was associated with the highest survival (71%). CONCLUSION:Despite modern massive transfusion protocols, one half of trauma patients receiving UMT are transfused with either RBC/FFP or RBC/PLT in unbalanced ratios ≥1.5:1, with increased associated mortality. Maintaining focus on balanced ratios during UMT is critical, and consideration of advanced age, poor initial mental status, thrombocytopenia, and resuscitative thoracotomy can aid in prognostication. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Prognostic, level III.

Interpersonal violence is a major global public health problem, and the burden of nonfatal assault injuries is far greater than that of homicides. To understand trends and inform prevention priorities, we sought to describe nonfatal assault injury trends across demographic groups from 2005 to 2015 in California, USA. Comprehensive hospitalization and emergency department discharge records were used to estimate annual rates of nonfatal assault injury overall and by means and age group and age-standardized annual rates by race/ethnicity, gender, and county. The overall rate of assault injury was stable in California from 2005 to 2015 (mean = 364 per 100,000), but there was substantial heterogeneity across demographic groups, including increases among African Americans (900 to 1,194), American Indian/Alaskan Natives (423 to 572), older individuals (age 25-29 = 697 to 727; 30-39 = 495 to 557; 40-49 = 352 to 404; 50-59 = 194 to 313; 60+ = 66 to 106), and women (199 to 252). Assault injury rates increased among several demographic groups, warranting the attention of professionals involved in violence prevention efforts. Epidemiologic examination to better understand causes of increases can inform prevention efforts. Similar analyses should be applied to other settings to determine how broadly these patterns are observed.

Evidence for Action (E4A), a signature program of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, funds investigator-initiated research on the impacts of social programs and policies on population health and health inequities. Across thousands of letters of intent and full proposals E4A has received since 2015, one of the most common methodological challenges faced by applicants is selecting realistic effect sizes to inform calculations of power, sample size, and minimum detectable effect (MDE). E4A prioritizes health studies that are both (1) adequately powered to detect effect sizes that may reasonably be expected for the given intervention and (2) likely to achieve intervention effects sizes that, if demonstrated, correspond to actionable evidence for population health stakeholders. However, little guidance exists to inform the selection of effect sizes for population health research proposals. We draw on examples of five rigorously evaluated population health interventions. These examples illustrate considerations for selecting realistic and actionable effect sizes as inputs to calculations of power, sample size and MDE for research proposals to study population health interventions. We show that plausible effects sizes for population health interventions may be smaller than commonly cited guidelines suggest. Effect sizes achieved with population health interventions depend on the characteristics of the intervention, the target population, and the outcomes studied. Population health impact depends on the proportion of the population receiving the intervention. When adequately powered, even studies of interventions with small effect sizes can offer valuable evidence to inform population health if such interventions can be implemented broadly. Demonstrating the effectiveness of such interventions, however, requires large sample sizes.

BACKGROUND:The large-scale social distancing efforts to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission have dramatically changed human behaviors associated with traumatic injuries. Trauma centers have reported decreases in trauma volume, paralleled by changes in injury mechanisms. We aimed to quantify changes in trauma epidemiology at an urban Level I trauma center in a county that instituted one of the earliest shelter-in-place orders to inform trauma care during future pandemic responses. METHODS:A single-center interrupted time-series analysis was performed to identify associations of shelter-in-place with trauma volume, injury mechanisms, and patient demographics in San Francisco, California. To control for short-term trends in trauma epidemiology, weekly level data were analyzed 6 months before shelter-in-place. To control for long-term trends, monthly level data were analyzed 5 years before shelter-in-place. RESULTS:Trauma volume decreased by 50% in the week following shelter-in-place (p < 0.01), followed by a linear increase each successive week (p < 0.01). Despite this, trauma volume for each month (March-June 2020) remained lower compared with corresponding months for all previous 5 years (2015-2019). Pediatric trauma volume showed similar trends with initial decreases (p = 0.02) followed by steady increases (p = 0.05). Reductions in trauma volumes were due entirely to changes in nonviolent injury mechanisms, while violence-related injury mechanisms remained unchanged (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION:Although the shelter-in-place order was associated with an overall decline in trauma volume, violence-related injuries persisted. Delineating and addressing underlying factors driving persistent violence-related injuries during shelter-in-place orders should be a focus of public health efforts in preparation for future pandemic responses. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiological study, level III.