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Development and external validation of a dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care units using machine learning

Hu, Yuxuan; Lui, Albert; Goldstein, Mark; Sudarshan, Mukund; Tinsay, Andrea; Tsui, Cindy; Maidman, Samuel D; Medamana, John; Jethani, Neil; Puli, Aahlad; Nguy, Vuthy; Aphinyanaphongs, Yindalon; Kiefer, Nicholas; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Horowitz, James; Ahuja, Tania; Fishman, Glenn I; Hochman, Judith; Katz, Stuart; Bernard, Samuel; Ranganath, Rajesh
BACKGROUND:Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US with the morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS:We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using MIMIC-III database by annotating with physician adjudicated outcomes. This dataset that consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database that was also annotated with physician adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock. RESULTS:CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792-0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717-0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top ten predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, Blood urea nitrogen, Systolic blood pressure, Serum chloride, Serum sodium, and Arterial blood pH. CONCLUSIONS:The novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for the millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure.
PMID: 38518758
ISSN: 2048-8734
CID: 5640892

Coronary Microvascular Dysfunction Is Associated With a Proinflammatory Circulating Transcriptome in Patients With Nonobstructive Coronary Arteries

Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Schlamp, Florencia; Hausvater, Anaïs; Joa, Amanda; Serrano-Gomez, Claudia; Farid, Ayman; Hochman, Judith S; Barrett, Tessa; Reynolds, Harmony R; Berger, Jeffrey S
PMID: 38299358
ISSN: 1524-4636
CID: 5627252

Uncovering Sex Differences in Type 2 Myocardial Infarction: Is Coronary Anatomy Enough?

Smilowitz, Nathaniel R.
ISSN: 2772-963x
CID: 5620692

Beyond Coronary Artery Disease: Assessing the Microcirculation

Pruthi, Sonal; Siddiqui, Emaad; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) affects more than 20 million adults in the United States. Although classically attributed to atherosclerosis of the epicardial coronary arteries, nearly half of patients with stable angina and IHD who undergo invasive coronary angiography do not have obstructive epicardial coronary artery disease. Ischemia with nonobstructive coronary arteries is frequently caused by microvascular angina with underlying coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD). Greater understanding the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and treatment of CMD holds promise to improve clinical outcomes of patients with ischemic heart disease.
PMID: 37949533
ISSN: 1558-2264
CID: 5610002

The impact of preoperative stress testing on cardiovascular and surgical care - Does it actually improve outcomes? [Comment]

Smilowitz, Nathaniel R
PMID: 37758564
ISSN: 1873-4529
CID: 5607872

Existing Nongated CT Coronary Calcium Predicts Operative Risk in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgeries (ENCORES)

Choi, Daniel Y; Hayes, Dena; Maidman, Samuel D; Dhaduk, Nehal; Jacobs, Jill E; Shmukler, Anna; Berger, Jeffrey S; Cuff, Germaine; Rehe, David; Lee, Mitchell; Donnino, Robert; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R
BACKGROUND:Preoperative cardiovascular risk stratification before noncardiac surgery is a common clinical challenge. Coronary artery calcium scores from ECG-gated chest computed tomography (CT) imaging are associated with perioperative events. At the time of preoperative evaluation, many patients will not have had ECG-gated CT imaging, but will have had nongated chest CT studies performed for a variety of noncardiac indications. We evaluated relationships between coronary calcium severity estimated from previous nongated chest CT imaging and perioperative major clinical events (MCE) after noncardiac surgery. METHODS:We retrospectively identified consecutive adults age ≥45 years who underwent in-hospital, major noncardiac surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a large academic health system composed of 4 acute care centers. All patients had nongated (contrast or noncontrast) chest CT imaging performed within 1 year before surgery. Coronary calcium in each vessel was retrospectively graded from absent to severe using a 0 to 3 scale (absent, mild, moderate, severe) by physicians blinded to clinical data. The estimated coronary calcium burden (ECCB) was computed as the sum of scores for each coronary artery (0 to 9 scale). A Revised Cardiac Risk Index was calculated for each patient. Perioperative MCE was defined as all-cause death or myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS:<0.0001). An ECCB ≥3 was associated with 2-fold higher adjusted odds of MCE versus an ECCB <3 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.11 [95% CI, 1.42-3.12]). CONCLUSIONS:Prevalence and severity of coronary calcium obtained from existing nongated chest CT imaging improve preoperative clinical risk stratification before noncardiac surgery.
PMID: 37732454
ISSN: 1524-4539
CID: 5599072

Perioperative considerations for patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing elective noncardiac surgery [Editorial]

Rohatgi, Nidhi; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Reejhsinghani, Risheen
PMID: 37369272
ISSN: 1555-7162
CID: 5522602

Comprehensive Management of ANOCA, Part 2-Program Development, Treatment, and Research Initiatives: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Prasad, Megha; Widmer, R Jay; Toleva, Olga; Quesada, Odayme; Sutton, Nadia R; Lerman, Amir; Reynolds, Harmony R; Kesarwani, Manoj; Savage, Michael P; Sweeny, Joseph M; Janaszek, Katherine B; Barseghian El-Farra, Ailin; Holoshitz, Noa; Park, Ki; Albadri, Ahmed; Blair, John A; Jeremias, Allen; Kearney, Kathleen E; Kobayashi, Yuhei; Miner, Steven E S; Samuels, Bruce A; Shah, Samit M; Taqueti, Viviany R; Wei, Janet; Fearon, William F; Moses, Jeffery W; Henry, Timothy D; Tremmel, Jennifer A; ,
Centers specializing in coronary function testing are critical to ensure a systematic approach to the diagnosis and treatment of angina with nonobstructive coronary arteries (ANOCA). Management leveraging lifestyle, pharmacology, and device-based therapeutic options for ANOCA can improve angina burden and quality of life in affected patients. Multidisciplinary care teams that can tailor and titrate therapies based on individual patient needs are critical to the success of comprehensive programs. As coronary function testing for ANOCA is more widely adopted, collaborative research initiatives will be fundamental to improve ANOCA care. These efforts will require standardized symptom assessments and data collection, which will propel future large-scale clinical trials.
PMID: 37704316
ISSN: 1558-3597
CID: 5593692

Comprehensive Management of ANOCA, Part 1-Definition, Patient Population, and Diagnosis: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Samuels, Bruce A; Shah, Samit M; Widmer, R Jay; Kobayashi, Yuhei; Miner, Steven E S; Taqueti, Viviany R; Jeremias, Allen; Albadri, Ahmed; Blair, John A; Kearney, Kathleen E; Wei, Janet; Park, Ki; Barseghian El-Farra, Ailin; Holoshitz, Noa; Janaszek, Katherine B; Kesarwani, Manoj; Lerman, Amir; Prasad, Megha; Quesada, Odayme; Reynolds, Harmony R; Savage, Michael P; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Sutton, Nadia R; Sweeny, Joseph M; Toleva, Olga; Henry, Timothy D; Moses, Jeffery W; Fearon, William F; Tremmel, Jennifer A; ,
Angina with nonobstructive coronary arteries (ANOCA) is increasingly recognized and may affect nearly one-half of patients undergoing invasive coronary angiography for suspected ischemic heart disease. This working diagnosis encompasses coronary microvascular dysfunction, microvascular and epicardial spasm, myocardial bridging, and other occult coronary abnormalities. Patients with ANOCA often face a high burden of symptoms and may experience repeated presentations to multiple medical providers before receiving a diagnosis. Given the challenges of establishing a diagnosis, patients with ANOCA frequently experience invalidation and recidivism, possibly leading to anxiety and depression. Advances in scientific knowledge and diagnostic testing now allow for routine evaluation of ANOCA noninvasively and in the cardiac catheterization laboratory with coronary function testing (CFT). CFT includes diagnostic coronary angiography, assessment of coronary flow reserve and microcirculatory resistance, provocative testing for endothelial dysfunction and coronary vasospasm, and intravascular imaging for identification of myocardial bridging, with hemodynamic assessment as needed.
PMID: 37704315
ISSN: 1558-3597
CID: 5593672

Perioperative strategies to reduce risk of myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS): A narrative review

Bello, Corina; Rössler, Julian; Shehata, Peter; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Ruetzler, Kurt
Myocardial injury is a frequent complication of surgical patients after having non-cardiac surgery that is strongly associated with perioperative mortality. While intraoperative anesthesia-related deaths are exceedingly rare, about 1% of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery die within the first 30 postoperative days. Given the number of surgeries performed annually, death following surgery is the second leading cause of death in the United States. Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) is defined as an elevation in troponin concentrations within 30 days postoperatively. Although typically asymptomatic, patients with MINS suffer myocardial damage and have a 10% risk of death within 30 days after surgery and excess risks of mortality that persist during the first postoperative year. Many factors for the development of MINS are non-modifiable, such as preexistent coronary artery disease. Preventive measures, systematic approaches to surveillance and treatment standards are still lacking, however many factors are modifiable and should be considered in clinical practice: the importance of hemodynamic control, adequate oxygen supply, metabolic homeostasis, the use of perioperative medications such as statins, anti-thrombotic agents, beta-blockers, or anti-inflammatory agents, as well as some evidence regarding the choice of sedative and analgesic for anesthesia are discussed. Also, as age and complexity in comorbidities of the surgical patient population increase, there is an urgent need to identify patients at risk for MINS and develop prevention and treatment strategies. In this review, we provide an overview of current screening standards and promising preventive options in the perioperative setting and address knowledge gaps requiring further investigation.
PMID: 36931053
ISSN: 1873-4529
CID: 5518062