Faculty Bibliography

Over 4 million survivors of breast cancer live in the United States, 35% of whom were treated before 2009. Approximately half of patients with breast cancer receive radiation therapy, which exposes the untreated contralateral breast to radiation and increases the risk of a subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Radiation oncology has strived to reduce unwanted radiation dose, but it is unknown whether a corresponding decline in actual dose received to the untreated contralateral breast has occurred. The purpose of this study was to evaluate trends in unwanted contralateral breast radiation dose to inform risk assessment of second primary cancer in the contralateral breast for long-term survivors of breast cancer. Individually estimated radiation absorbed doses to the four quadrants and areola central area of the contralateral breast were estimated for 2,132 women treated with radiation therapy for local/regional breast cancers at age <55 years diagnosed between 1985 and 2008. The two inner quadrant doses and two outer quadrant doses were averaged. Trends in dose to each of the three areas of the contralateral breast were evaluated in multivariable models. The population impact of reducing contralateral breast dose on the incidence of radiation-associated CBC was assessed by estimating population attributable risk fraction (PAR) in a multivariable model. The median dose to the inner quadrants of the contralateral breast was 1.70 Gy; to the areola, 1.20 Gy; and to the outer quadrants, 0.72 Gy. Ninety-two percent of patients received ≥1 Gy to the inner quadrants. For each calendar year of diagnosis, dose declined significantly for each location, most rapidly for the inner quadrants (0.04 Gy/year). Declines in dose were similar across subgroups defined by age at diagnosis and body mass index. The PAR for CBC due to radiation exposure >1 Gy for women <40 years of age was 17%. Radiation dose-reduction measures have reduced dose to the contralateral breast during breast radiation therapy. Reducing the dose to the contralateral breast to <1 Gy could prevent an estimated 17% of subsequent radiation-associated CBCs for women treated under 40 years of age. These dose estimates inform CBC surveillance for the growing number of breast cancer survivors who received radiation therapy as young women in recent decades. Continued reductions in dose to the contralateral breast could further reduce the incidence of radiation-associated CBC.

Evidence is mounting that cigarette smoking contributes to second primary contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. Whether radiation therapy (RT) interacts with smoking to modify this risk is unknown. In this multicenter, individually-matched case-control study, we examined the association between RT, smoking, and CBC risk. The study included 1,521 CBC cases and 2,212 controls with unilateral breast cancer, all diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer between 1985-2008 at age <55 years. Absorbed radiation doses to contralateral breast regions were estimated with thermoluminescent dosimeters in tissue-equivalent anthropomorphic phantoms and smoking history was collected by interview. Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CBC risk were estimated by multivariable conditional logistic regression. There was no interaction between any measure of smoking with RT to increase CBC risk (eg, the interaction of continuous RT dose with smoking at first breast cancer diagnosis [ever/never]: RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.89-1.14; continuous RT dose with years smoked: RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99-1.01; and continuous RT dose with lifetime pack-years: RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99-1.01). There was no evidence that RT further increased CBC risk in young women with first primary breast cancer who were current smokers or had smoking history.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Men stationed on nuclear-powered submarines are occupationally exposed to external ionizing radiation at very low levels and radiation dose for each individual is closely monitored. Little is known about ionizing radiation (IR) risks of cancer mortality for populations with levels of cumulative ionizing radiation exposure this low. MATERIALS AND METHODS/UNASSIGNED:This historical cohort study followed 85,033 enlisted men who had served on a nuclear-powered submarine in the U.S. Navy between 1969 and 1982 to determine patterns of cancer mortality. Occupational radiation doses were measured by badge dosimeters for each individual for all periods of Navy service potentially involving radiation exposure. Deaths were ascertained through 1995 by searches of multiple national mortality databases. Within-cohort dose-response relationships for cancer mortality were estimated using linear Poisson regression models. Individual-level smoking status was not available so cancer risks were estimated separately for cancers with and without previously published evidence of consistently moderate or strong associations with smoking. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:A total of 584 cancer deaths occurred during a follow-up period of up to 27 years. The mean and median cumulative occupational radiation doses received while in the Navy were 5.7 and 1.1 milliSieverts (mSv), respectively, range 0-242 mSv. Mortality Excess Relative Risks (ERRs) per 10 mSv and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were 0.053 (CI -0.03, 0.17) for all cancers, 0.052 (CI -0.03, 0.18) for all solid cancers, and 0.003 (CI -0.29, 0.30) for leukemias excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The ERRs per 10 mSv were 0.052 (CI -0.07, 0.17) for cancers previously associated with smoking and 0.012 (CI -0.10, 0.12) for cancers that were not. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:The ERR point estimates for solid cancers and leukemia were statistically compatible with those reported in previously published studies of other ionizing radiation-exposed and monitored cohorts, albeit with wide confidence intervals. This study, with high-quality measurements of in-Navy occupational external IR doses, high follow-up proportion, and detailed IR dose-response analyses, is consistent with the premise of small excess cancer risks from low-dose IR.

OBJECTIVE:To describe the long-term mortality experience of a cohort of enlisted men who served on nuclear-powered submarines in the United States Navy and breathed recirculated filtered air for extended periods of time. METHODS:In this historical cohort study we estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and used within-cohort Poisson regression analyses to address healthy worker biases. RESULTS:Three thousand two hundred sixty three deaths occurred among 85,498 men during 1,926,875 person-years of follow-up from 1969 to 1995. SMRs were reduced for most cause-of-death categories, prostate cancer had a twofold elevation. In within-cohort comparisons, prostate cancer mortality did not increase with duration of submarine service, but ischemic heart disease mortality increased 26% per 5 years of submarine service. CONCLUSIONS:Long periods of submarine service do not increase mortality in most cause-of-death categories. Increased mortality from ischemic heart disease likely reflects the effects of tobacco smoke.

Recently, several compilations of individual radiation epidemiology study results have aimed to obtain direct evidence on the magnitudes of dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks. These compilations have relied on meta-analyses of ratios of risks from low dose-rate studies and matched risks from the solid cancer Excess Relative Risk models fitted to the acutely exposed Japanese A-bomb cohort. The purpose here is to demonstrate how choices of methodology for evaluating dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks may influence the results reported for dose-rate effects. The current analysis is intended to address methodological issues and does not imply that the authors recommend a particular value for the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor. A set of 22 results from one recent published study has been adopted here as a test set of data for applying the many different methods described here, that nearly all produced highly consistent results. Some recently voiced concerns, involving the recalling of the well-known theoretical point-the ratio of two normal random variables has a theoretically unbounded variance-that could potentially cause issues, are shown to be unfounded when aimed at the published work cited and examined in detail here. In the calculation of dose-rate effects for radiation protection purposes, it is recommended that meta-estimators should retain the full epidemiological and dosimetric matching information between the risks from the individual low dose-rate studies and the acutely exposed A-bomb cohort and that a regression approach can be considered as a useful alternative to current approaches.

The overall aim of this contribution to the 'Second Bill Morgan Memorial Special Issue' is to provide a high-level review of a recent report developed by a Committee for the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) titled 'Approaches for Integrating Information from Radiation Biology and Epidemiology to Enhance Low-Dose Health Risk Assessment'. It derives from previous NCRP Reports and Commentaries that provide the case for integrating data from radiation biology studies (available and proposed) with epidemiological studies (also available and proposed) to develop Biologically-Based Dose-Response (BBDR) models. In this review, it is proposed for such models to leverage the adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and key events (KE) approach for better characterizing radiation-induced cancers and circulatory disease (as the example for a noncancer outcome). The review discusses the current state of knowledge of mechanisms of carcinogenesis, with an emphasis on radiation-induced cancers, and a similar discussion for circulatory disease. The types of the various informative BBDR models are presented along with a proposed generalized BBDR model for cancer and a more speculative one for circulatory disease. The way forward is presented in a comprehensive discussion of the research needs to address the goal of enhancing health risk assessment of exposures to low doses of radiation. The use of an AOP/KE approach for developing a mechanistic framework for BBDR models of radiation-induced cancer and circulatory disease is considered to be a viable one based upon current knowledge of the mechanisms of formation of these adverse health outcomes and the available technical capabilities and computational advances. The way forward for enhancing low-dose radiation risk estimates will require there to be a tight integration of epidemiology data and radiation biology information to meet the goals of relevance and sensitivity of the adverse health outcomes required for overall health risk assessment at low doses and dose rates.

Whether radiation therapy (RT) affects contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk in women with pathogenic germline variants in moderate- to high-penetrance breast cancer-associated genes is unknown. In a population-based case-control study, we examined the association between RT, variants in ATM, BRCA1/2, or CHEK2*1100delC, and CBC risk. We analyzed 708 cases of women with CBC, and 1,399 controls with unilateral breast cancer, all diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer between 1985-2000, <55 years of age at diagnosis, and screened for variants in breast cancer-associated genes. Rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RT did not modify the association between known pathogenic variants and CBC risk (e.g., BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers without RT, RR: 3.52, 95% CI: 1.76-7.01; BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers with RT, RR: 4.46, 95% CI: 2.96-6.71), suggesting that modifying RT plans for young women with breast cancer is unwarranted. Rare ATM missense variants, not currently identified as pathogenic, were associated with increased risk of RT-associated CBC (carriers of ATM rare missense variants of uncertain significance without RT, RR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.09-1.55; carriers of ATM rare missense variants of uncertain significance with RT, RR: 2.98, 95% CI: 1.31-6.80). Further mechanistic studies will aid clinical decision-making related to RT.