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Machine Learning Prediction of Death in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019

Churpek, Matthew M; Gupta, Shruti; Spicer, Alexandra B; Hayek, Salim S; Srivastava, Anand; Chan, Lili; Melamed, Michal L; Brenner, Samantha K; Radbel, Jared; Madhani-Lovely, Farah; Bhatraju, Pavan K; Bansal, Anip; Green, Adam; Goyal, Nitender; Shaefi, Shahzad; Parikh, Chirag R; Semler, Matthew W; Leaf, David E; ,
OBJECTIVES:Critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 have variable mortality. Risk scores could improve care and be used for prognostic enrichment in trials. We aimed to compare machine learning algorithms and develop a simple tool for predicting 28-day mortality in ICU patients with coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN:This was an observational study of adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019. The primary outcome was 28-day inhospital mortality. Machine learning models and a simple tool were derived using variables from the first 48 hours of ICU admission and validated externally in independent sites and temporally with more recent admissions. Models were compared with a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, National Early Warning Score, and CURB-65 using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration. SETTING:Sixty-eight U.S. ICUs. PATIENTS:Adults with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to 68 ICUs in the United States between March 4, 2020, and June 29, 2020. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:ratio were the most important predictors in the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model. CONCLUSIONS:eXtreme Gradient Boosting had the highest discrimination overall, and our simple tool had higher discrimination than a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, National Early Warning Score, and CURB-65 on external validation. These models could be used to improve triage decisions and clinical trial enrichment.
PMCID:8378790
PMID: 34476402
ISSN: 2639-8028
CID: 5683312

Current State of the Medical Student Performance Evaluation: A Tool for Reflection for Residency Programs

Brenner, Judith M; Bird, Jeffrey B; Brenner, Jason; Orner, David; Friedman, Karen
BACKGROUND:The Medical Student Performance Evaluation (MSPE) provides important information to residency programs. Despite recent recommendations for standardization, it is not clear how much variation exists in MSPE content among schools. OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:We describe the current section content of the MSPE in US allopathic medical schools, with a particular focus on variations in the presentation of student performance. METHODS:A representative MSPE was obtained from 95.3% (143 of 150) of allopathic US medical schools through residency applications to the Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell in select programs for the 2019-2020 academic year. A manual data abstraction tool was piloted in 2018-2019. After training, it was used to code all portions of the MSPE in this study. The results were analyzed, and descriptive statistics were reported. RESULTS:In preclinical years, 30.8% of MSPEs reported data regarding performance of students beyond achieving "passes" in a pass/fail curriculum. Only half referenced performance in the fourth year including electives, acting internships, or both. About two-thirds of schools included an overall descriptor of comparative performance in the final paragraph. Among these schools, a majority provided adjectives such as "outstanding/excellent/very good/good," while one-quarter reported numerical data categories. Regarding clerkship grades, there were numerous nomenclature systems used. CONCLUSIONS:This analysis demonstrates the existence of extreme variability in the content of MSPEs submitted by US allopathic medical schools in the 2019-2020 cycle, including the components and nomenclature of grades and descriptors of comparative performance, display of data, and inclusion of data across all years of the medical education program.
PMCID:8370358
PMID: 34434519
ISSN: 1949-8357
CID: 5473672

Baseline brain function in the preadolescents of the ABCD Study

Chaarani, B; Hahn, S; Allgaier, N; Adise, S; Owens, M M; Juliano, A C; Yuan, D K; Loso, H; Ivanciu, A; Albaugh, M D; Dumas, J; Mackey, S; Laurent, J; Ivanova, M; Hagler, D J; Cornejo, M D; Hatton, S; Agrawal, A; Aguinaldo, L; Ahonen, L; Aklin, W; Anokhin, A P; Arroyo, J; Avenevoli, S; Babcock, D; Bagot, K; Baker, F C; Banich, M T; Barch, D M; Bartsch, H; Baskin-Sommers, A; Bjork, J M; Blachman-Demner, D; Bloch, M; Bogdan, R; Bookheimer, S Y; Breslin, F; Brown, S; Calabro, F J; Calhoun, V; Casey, B J; Chang, L; Clark, D B; Cloak, C; Constable, R T; Constable, K; Corley, R; Cottler, L B; Coxe, S; Dagher, R K; Dale, A M; Dapretto, M; Delcarmen-Wiggins, R; Dick, A S; Do, E K; Dosenbach, N U F; Dowling, G J; Edwards, S; Ernst, T M; Fair, D A; Fan, C C; Feczko, E; Feldstein-Ewing, S W; Florsheim, P; Foxe, J J; Freedman, E G; Friedman, N P; Friedman-Hill, S; Fuemmeler, B F; Galvan, A; Gee, D G; Giedd, J; Glantz, M; Glaser, P; Godino, J; Gonzalez, M; Gonzalez, R; Grant, S; Gray, K M; Haist, F; Harms, M P; Hawes, S; Heath, A C; Heeringa, S; Heitzeg, M M; Hermosillo, R; Herting, M M; Hettema, J M; Hewitt, J K; Heyser, C; Hoffman, E; Howlett, K; Huber, R S; Huestis, M A; Hyde, L W; Iacono, W G; Infante, M A; Irfanoglu, O; Isaiah, A; Iyengar, S; Jacobus, J; James, R; Jean-Francois, B; Jernigan, T; Karcher, N R; Kaufman, A; Kelley, B; Kit, B; Ksinan, A; Kuperman, J; Laird, A R; Larson, C; LeBlanc, K; Lessov-Schlagger, C; Lever, N; Lewis, D A; Lisdahl, K; Little, A R; Lopez, M; Luciana, M; Luna, B; Madden, P A; Maes, H H; Makowski, C; Marshall, A T; Mason, M J; Matochik, J; McCandliss, B D; McGlade, E; Montoya, I; Morgan, G; Morris, A; Mulford, C; Murray, P; Nagel, B J; Neale, M C; Neigh, G; Nencka, A; Noronha, A; Nixon, S J; Palmer, C E; Pariyadath, V; Paulus, M P; Pelham, W E; Pfefferbaum, D; Pierpaoli, C; Prescot, A; Prouty, D; Puttler, L I; Rajapaske, N; Rapuano, K M; Reeves, G; Renshaw, P F; Riedel, M C; Rojas, P; de la Rosa, M; Rosenberg, M D; Ross, M J; Sanchez, M; Schirda, C; Schloesser, D; Schulenberg, J; Sher, K J; Sheth, C; Shilling, P D; Simmons, W K; Sowell, E R; Speer, N; Spittel, M; Squeglia, L M; Sripada, C; Steinberg, J; Striley, C; Sutherland, M T; Tanabe, J; Tapert, S F; Thompson, W; Tomko, R L; Uban, K A; Vrieze, S; Wade, N E; Watts, R; Weiss, S; Wiens, B A; Williams, O D; Wilbur, A; Wing, D; Wolff-Hughes, D; Yang, R; Yurgelun-Todd, D A; Zucker, R A; Potter, A; Garavan, H P
The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study® is a 10-year longitudinal study of children recruited at ages 9 and 10. A battery of neuroimaging tasks are administered biennially to track neurodevelopment and identify individual differences in brain function. This study reports activation patterns from functional MRI (fMRI) tasks completed at baseline, which were designed to measure cognitive impulse control with a stop signal task (SST; N = 5,547), reward anticipation and receipt with a monetary incentive delay (MID) task (N = 6,657) and working memory and emotion reactivity with an emotional N-back (EN-back) task (N = 6,009). Further, we report the spatial reproducibility of activation patterns by assessing between-group vertex/voxelwise correlations of blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) activation. Analyses reveal robust brain activations that are consistent with the published literature, vary across fMRI tasks/contrasts and slightly correlate with individual behavioral performance on the tasks. These results establish the preadolescent brain function baseline, guide interpretation of cross-sectional analyses and will enable the investigation of longitudinal changes during adolescent development.
PMID: 34099922
ISSN: 1546-1726
CID: 4950912

Effect of Vancomycin on the Gut Microbiome and Plasma Concentrations of Gut-Derived Uremic Solutes

Nazzal, Lama; Soiefer, Leland; Chang, Michelle; Tamizuddin, Farah; Schatoff, Daria; Cofer, Lucas; Aguero-Rosenfeld, Maria E; Matalon, Albert; Meijers, Bjorn; Holzman, Robert; Lowenstein, Jerome
Introduction/UNASSIGNED:Declining renal function results in the accumulation of solutes normally excreted by healthy kidneys. Data suggest that some of the protein-bound solutes mediate accelerated cardiovascular disease. Many of the poorly dialyzable protein-bound uremic retention solutes are products of gut bacterial metabolism. Methods/UNASSIGNED:We performed a blinded-randomized controlled trial comparing the changes in plasma concentrations of a panel of protein-bound solutes and microbiome structure in response to the once-weekly oral administration of 250 mg of vancomycin or placebo over a period of 12 weeks in a cohort of stable patients with end-stage kidney disease. We also examined the pattern of recovery of the solutes and gut microbiome over 12 weeks of placebo administration following vancomycin. Results/UNASSIGNED:. We demonstrated microbiome recovery after stopping vancomycin. However, recovery in the solutes was highly variable between subjects. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:We demonstrated that microbiome suppression using vancomycin resulted in changes in multiple gut-derived uremic solutes. Future studies are needed to address whether reduction in those uremic solutes results in improvement of cardiovascular outcomes in ESKD patients.
PMCID:8343810
PMID: 34386661
ISSN: 2468-0249
CID: 4966092

Carotid Doppler ultrasonography correlates with stroke volume in a human model of hypovolaemia and resuscitation: analysis of 48 570 cardiac cycles [Letter]

Kenny, Jon-Émile S; Barjaktarevic, Igor; Mackenzie, David C; Elfarnawany, Mai; Yang, Zhen; Eibl, Andrew M; Eibl, Joseph K; Kim, Chul-Ho; Johnson, Bruce D
PMID: 34116805
ISSN: 1471-6771
CID: 4911062

Disparities in Breastfeeding Duration of New York City Latinx Mothers by Birth Region

Gerchow, Lauren; Squires, Allison; Jones, Simon
PMID: 33826404
ISSN: 1556-8342
CID: 4839722

In-Hospital Mortality in a Cohort of Hospitalized Pregnant and Nonpregnant Patients With COVID-19 [Letter]

Pineles, Beth L; Goodman, Katherine E; Pineles, Lisa; O'Hara, Lyndsay M; Nadimpalli, Gita; Magder, Laurence S; Baghdadi, Jonathan D; Parchem, Jacqueline G; Harris, Anthony D
PMID: 33971101
ISSN: 1539-3704
CID: 4895222

Efficacy of Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Superficial Gastric Neoplasia in a Large Cohort in North America

Ngamruengphong, Saowanee; Ferri, Lorenzo; Aihara, Hiroyuki; Draganov, Peter V; Yang, Dennis J; Perbtani, Yaseen B; Jue, Terry L; Munroe, Craig A; Boparai, Eshandeep S; Mehta, Neal A; Bhatt, Amit; Kumta, Nikhil A; Othman, Mohamed O; Mercado, Michael; Javaid, Huma; Aadam, Abdul Aziz; Siegel, Amanda; James, Theodore W; Grimm, Ian S; DeWitt, John M; Novikov, Aleksey; Schlachterman, Alexander; Kowalski, Thomas; Samarasena, Jason; Hashimoto, Rintaro; Chehade, Nabil El Hage; Lee, John; Chang, Kenneth; Su, Bailey; Ujiki, Michael B; Mehta, Amit; Sharaiha, Reem Z; Carr-Locke, David L; Chen, Alex; Chen, Michael; Chen, Yen-I; Pourmousavi Khoshknab, MirMilad; Wang, Rui; Kerdsirichairat, Tossapol; Tomizawa, Yutaka; von Renteln, Daniel; Kumbhari, Vivek; Khashab, Mouen A; Bechara, Robert; Karasik, Michael; Patel, Neej J; Fukami, Norio; Nishimura, Makoto; Hanada, Yuri; Wong Kee Song, Louis M; Laszkowska, Monika; Wang, Andrew Y; Hwang, Joo Ha; Friedland, Shai; Sethi, Amrita; Kalloo, Antony N
BACKGROUND & AIMS/OBJECTIVE:Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a widely accepted treatment option for superficial gastric neoplasia in Asia, but there are few data on outcomes of gastric ESD from North America. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of gastric ESD in North America. METHODS:We analyzed data from 347 patients who underwent gastric ESD at 25 centers, from 2010 through 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, lesion characteristics, procedure details and related adverse events, treatment outcomes, local recurrence, and vital status at the last follow up. For the 277 patients with available follow-up data, the median interval between initial ESD and last clinical or endoscopic evaluation was 364 days. The primary endpoint was the rate of en bloc and R0 resection. Secondary outcomes included curative resection, rates of adverse events and recurrence, and gastric cancer-related death. RESULTS:Ninety patients (26%) had low-grade adenomas or dysplasia, 82 patients (24%) had high-grade dysplasia, 139 patients (40%) had early gastric cancer, and 36 patients (10%) had neuroendocrine tumors. Proportions of en bloc and R0 resection for all lesions were 92%/82%, for early gastric cancers were 94%/75%, for adenomas and low-grade dysplasia were 93%/ 92%, for high-grade dysplasia were 89%/ 87%, and for neuroendocrine tumors were 92%/75%. Intraprocedural perforation occurred in 6.6% of patients; 82% of these were treated successfully with endoscopic therapy. Delayed bleeding occurred in 2.6% of patients. No delayed perforation or procedure-related deaths were observed. There were local recurrences in 3.9% of cases; all occurred after non-curative ESD resection. Metachronous lesions were identified in 14 patients (6.9%). One of 277 patients with clinical follow up died of metachronous gastric cancer that occurred 2.5 years after the initial ESD. CONCLUSIONS:ESD is a highly effective treatment for superficial gastric neoplasia and should be considered as a viable option for patients in North America. The risk of local recurrence is low and occurs exclusively after non-curative resection. Careful endoscopic surveillance is necessary to identify and treat metachronous lesions.
PMID: 32565290
ISSN: 1542-7714
CID: 4976892

Blood volume and albumin transudation in critically ill COVID-19 patients [Letter]

Bakker, Jan; Horowitz, James M; Hagedorn, Jackie; Kozloff, Sam; Kaufman, David; Castro, Ricardo
PMCID:8325200
PMID: 34332641
ISSN: 1466-609x
CID: 4988442

Outcomes among Hospitalized Chronic Kidney Disease Patients with COVID-19

Khatri, Minesh; Charytan, David M; Parnia, Sam; Petrilli, Christopher M; Michael, Jeffrey; Liu, David; Tatapudi, Vasishta; Jones, Simon; Benstein, Judith; Horwitz, Leora I
Background/UNASSIGNED:Patients with CKD ha ve impaired immunity, increased risk of infection-related mortality, and worsened COVID-19 outcomes. However, data comparing nondialysis CKD and ESKD are sparse. Methods/UNASSIGNED:Patients with COVID-19 admitted to three hospitals in the New York area, between March 2 and August 27, 2020, were retrospectively studied using electronic health records. Patients were classified as those without CKD, those with nondialysis CKD, and those with ESKD, with outcomes including hospital mortality, ICU admission, and mortality rates. Results/UNASSIGNED:Of 3905 patients, 588 (15%) had nondialysis CKD and 128 (3%) had ESKD. The nondialysis CKD and ESKD groups had a greater prevalence of comorbidities and higher admission D-dimer levels, whereas patients with ESKD had lower C-reactive protein levels at admission. ICU admission rates were similar across all three groups (23%-25%). The overall, unadjusted hospital mortality was 25%, and the mortality was 24% for those without CKD, 34% for those with nondialysis CKD, and 27% for those with ESKD. Among patients in the ICU, mortality was 56%, 64%, and 56%, respectively. Although patients with nondialysis CKD had higher odds of overall mortality versus those without CKD in univariate analysis (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.91), this was no longer significant in fully adjusted models (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.40). Also, ESKD status did not associate with a higher risk of mortality compared with non-CKD in adjusted analyses, but did have reduced mortality when compared with nondialysis CKD (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.95). Mortality rates declined precipitously after the first 2 months of the pandemic, from 26% to 14%, which was reflected in all three subgroups. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:In a diverse cohort of patients with COVID-19, we observed higher crude mortality rates for patients with nondialysis CKD and, to a lesser extent, ESKD, which were not significant after risk adjustment. Moreover, patients with ESKD appear to have better outcom es than those with nondialysis CKD.
PMCID:8786103
PMID: 35368350
ISSN: 2641-7650
CID: 5219372