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According to a significant study published in the prestigious British journal Nature recently, the H5N1 bird flu virus is at least two large mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human pandemic virus. This virus attaches deep in the lungs of birds but cannot adhere to the upper respiratory tract of humans. Since we can't transmit the virus to one another, it poses little immediate threat to us. Fear causes the public to blur the distinction between birds and people, and so, as the H5N1 virus infects flocks of birds in Pakistan and Israel, nightly news watchers track the path to the United States. The poultry industry cringes as migratory birds that might be carrying H5N1 make their way closer to the northern shores of North America. If H5N1 spreads in pigs (a soup of viruses) and exchanges genetic material with another human flu virus before passing to humans, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done by fear of a mutated virus that never quite lives up to 1918 expectations. About 1,000 cases of ascending paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a feared pandemic that never arrived

The dilemma often concerns the influenza virus because it continually mutates, leading to human pandemics that predictably occur unpredictably. Although scientists lack the knowledge to predict when and what strain will cause the next influenza pandemic, they say they are convinced that another one is inevitable and so preparation must start as soon as a threat is detected. That kind of immediate action occurred in 1976 after four cases of swine influenza were detected at Fort Dix, a military base in New Jersey. Fearing that the cases represented an early warning of an impending pandemic of influenza, Public Health Service officials rushed President Gerald R. Ford, who was running for re-election, into recommending a swine influenza shot for every American. Warnings about A(H5N1) avian influenza began in 1997, when scientists in Hong Kong discovered that that strain of virus had jumped directly to cause disease in humans without first mixing in pigs, which had been the pattern until then. With the spread of the virus among birds, officials have warned that it could mutate, combine with a human influenza virus and create a new one to cause a human pandemic

According to a significant study published in the prestigious British journal Nature recently, the H5N1 bird flu virus is at least two large mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human pandemic virus. This virus attaches deep in the lungs of birds but cannot adhere to the upper respiratory tract of humans. Since we can't transmit the virus to each other, it poses little immediate threat to us. Even if the H5N1 virus does mutate enough to spread easily among the upper breathing tracts of humans, there are multiple scenarios in which it would not cause the next massive pandemic. In fact, the Spanish flu of 1918 made the jump to humans before killing a large number of birds. Not only do we have vaccinations, antibiotics, antiviral drugs, public information networks, steroids and heart treatments that were lacking in 1918 to treat victims of the flu; in addition, the growing worldwide immunity to H5N1 may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur. Cooking a chicken or turkey kills any influenza virus 100 percent of the time, yet the fear of H5N1 bird flu is already so rampant in Europe that poultry consumption is down 70 percent in Italy and 20 percent in France. In Britain people are giving away their parrots after a single parrot got the disease, and in Germany a cat died of H5N1 and the public was told to keep cats indoors. Forty-six countries outside the European Union banned French poultry exports after a single flock of turkeys was found to be infected. France, fourth in the world in poultry exports, is already hemorrhaging more than $40 million a month

The diseases are known as zoonoses because they affect animals primarily, and humans only incidentally. The AIDS, SARS and A(H5N1) avian influenza viruses and at least eight other infectious agents carried by animals have led to new and emerging human diseases in recent years. In 1999, scientists discovered the Nipah virus among pig workers in Malaysia and Singapore who developed inflammation of the brain and respiratory illness. Farming practices on pig farms where fruit trees were abundant created opportunities for transmission of the Nipah virus, said Dr. Peter W. Daniels of the Australian Animal Health Laboratory in Geelong. Cats, leopards and tigers have died from A(H5N1) avian influenza in southeast Asia and Europe. Though the number of cases is small, they have raised concern that the virus could become a bigger problem among felines. The 10,000 tigers now being kept as pets in the United States outnumber the 6,000 in the wild worldwide, Dr. [Bruno Chomel] said

The bacteria can cause the same variety of problems in animals and humans, including skin infections, abscesses, joint infections and death. The infections can be difficult to treat, raising concern about the potential for animals to serve as sources of infection among their human contacts. Are some people acquiring the antibiotic-resistant staphylococcal infections from pets? Or are pets being infected from exposure to people? If so, how often are each occurring? Methicillin-resistant staphylococcal infections have been found among horses, and outbreaks have occurred in equine hospitals. But no cases of infection among horses have been linked to people, [Nina Morano] said in an interview

Recently, some critics have objected to the organization's practice of keeping some of the virus's genetic information in a secret database. Ilaria Capua, an Italian veterinary scientist who works on avian flu, has challenged the system by refusing to send her own data to the password-protected archive. Instead, she released the information publicly and urged her colleagues to do the same. More timely release of information about avian flu and other infectious agents 'will become increasingly routine,' largely as a legacy of the SARS outbreaks in 2003, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, another flu expert at the agency

The bacteria can cause the same variety of problems in animals and humans, including skin infections, abscesses, joint infections and death. The infections can be difficult to treat, raising concern about the potential for animals to serve as sources of infection among their human contacts. The questions that epidemiologists at the centers are adding to continuing studies are aimed at determining the source of such infections. Are some people acquiring the antibiotic-resistant staphylococcal infections from pets? Or are pets being infected from exposure to people? If so, how often are each occurring? Staphylococci are commonly found on human skin and in the nasal passages, but much less so on animal skin, Dr. [Shelley C. Rankin] said. Methicillin-resistant staphylococcal infections have been found among horses, and outbreaks have occurred in equine hospitals. But no cases of infection among horses have been linked to people, Dr. [Nina Morano] said in an interview

This scenario reads like something from our near future. Experts predict that the bird flu virus might hit our shores within a year. In fact, it's a news flash from three decades ago. The events of the so-called swine flu in the USA seem hauntingly familiar to those of us who are focused on the current bird flu, and they can serve as a useful guide on what to do now and -- perhaps as important -- what not to do. The rush to make vaccines for a flu virus to which we have no immunity is not a new concept. This is what happened during the swine flu fiasco of 1976, when the fear of another killer outbreak provoked a national political response and a rushed vaccination program. More than 40 million people received the swine flu vaccine that year against a new pig virus that ultimately never took hold. It was later determined that the swine flu wasn't as virulent or as deadly as originally thought. But more than 1,000 cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a life-threatening ascending paralysis, occurred in those who received the vaccine, which had been rushed into production. The public relations nightmare and lawsuits against the government helped to drive many drug companies away from making flu vaccine at all. (Of 27 companies that manufactured flu vaccines at the time, only three still do.)

Recently, some critics have objected to the organization's practice of keeping some of the virus's genetic information in a secret database. One critic, Ilaria Capua, an Italian veterinary scientist who works on avian influenza, has challenged the system by refusing to send her own data to the password-protected archive. Instead, she released the information publicly and urged her colleagues to do the same. More timely release of information about avian influenza and other infectious agents ''will become increasingly routine,'' largely as a legacy of the SARS outbreaks in 2003, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, another expert on influenza at the agency. In the fall of 2002, China lied about the existence of the earliest cases of SARS. Within a few months, SARS spread to Canada and a number of other countries

[Robert Webster]'s statement is the latest Hitchcockian pronouncement about H5N1 bird flu, a virus that is deadly in birds. But humans are different. We are protected by a species barrier, and serological surveys conducted in 1997 in Hong Kong and since have detected antibodies in thousands of humans who never got sick, showing that bird flu isn't as deadly to the few who come in contact with it as has been reported. If H5N1 takes hold in pigs and exchanges genetic material with another flu virus, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done from fear of a mutated virus that can theoretically affect us. More than 1,000 cases of paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a pandemic that never came