Faculty Bibliography

IMPORTANCE:The spring 2020 surge of COVID-19 unprecedentedly strained ventilator supply in New York City, with many hospitals nearly exhausting available ventilators and subsequently seriously considering enacting crisis standards of care and implementing New York State Ventilator Allocation Guidelines (NYVAG). However, there is little evidence as to how NYVAG would perform if implemented. OBJECTIVES:To evaluate the performance and potential improvement of NYVAG during a surge of patients with respect to the length of rationing, overall mortality, and worsening health disparities. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:This cohort study included intubated patients in a single health system in New York City from March through July 2020. A total of 20 000 simulations were conducted of ventilator triage (10 000 following NYVAG and 10 000 following a proposed improved NYVAG) during a crisis period, defined as the point at which the prepandemic ventilator supply was 95% utilized. EXPOSURES:The NYVAG protocol for triage ventilators. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Comparison of observed survival rates with simulations of scenarios requiring NYVAG ventilator rationing. RESULTS:The total cohort included 1671 patients; of these, 674 intubated patients (mean [SD] age, 63.7 [13.8] years; 465 male [69.9%]) were included in the crisis period, with 571 (84.7%) testing positive for COVID-19. Simulated ventilator rationing occurred for 163.9 patients over 15.0 days, 44.4% (95% CI, 38.3%-50.0%) of whom would have survived if provided a ventilator while only 34.8% (95% CI, 28.5%-40.0%) of those newly intubated patients receiving a reallocated ventilator survived. While triage categorization at the time of intubation exhibited partial prognostic differentiation, 94.8% of all ventilator rationing occurred after a time trial. Within this subset, 43.1% were intubated for 7 or more days with a favorable SOFA score that had not improved. An estimated 60.6% of these patients would have survived if sustained on a ventilator. Revising triage subcategorization, proposed improved NYVAG, would have improved this alarming ventilator allocation inefficiency (25.3% [95% CI, 22.1%-28.4%] of those selected for ventilator rationing would have survived if provided a ventilator). NYVAG ventilator rationing did not exacerbate existing health disparities. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:In this cohort study of intubated patients experiencing simulated ventilator rationing during the apex of the New York City COVID-19 2020 surge, NYVAG diverted ventilators from patients with a higher chance of survival to those with a lower chance of survival. Future efforts should be focused on triage subcategorization, which improved this triage inefficiency, and ventilator rationing after a time trial, when most ventilator rationing occurred.

BACKGROUND:The HIV research workforce is not representative of populations most affected by the epidemic. Innovative educational programs are needed to motivate diverse student populations to pursue careers in HIV research. METHODS:The Duke University Center for AIDS Research Evidence2Practice (E2P) program is a 3-day interactive workshop that introduces students from Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, implementation science, and human-centered design. Participants develop 1-page action plans to increase awareness and uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis on their campus. The program was evaluated using a partially mixed-method concurrent equal status study design with pre-program and post-program surveys and in-depth interviews. RESULTS:Among the 52 participating students, 44 completed the preworkshop survey, 45 completed the postworkshop survey, and 10 participated in an in-depth interview. Most participants identified as Black or African American and cisgender female. Participating in the E2P program was associated with: (1) an increase in median interest in pursuing a career in HIV research (P < 0.01) and (2) a decrease in median perceived difficulty in starting a career in HIV research (P < 0.01). Several students described that a lack of knowledge about initiating an HIV research career, a perceived lack of qualifications and knowledge about HIV science, and limited experience were major barriers to considering careers in HIV research. CONCLUSIONS:The E2P program enhanced HBCU students' interest in careers related to HIV research and improved their self-efficacy to pursue such careers. On-campus educational enrichment initiatives, led by active HIV researchers and clinicians, should be a critical part of diversifying the HIV workforce.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:The extent to which physical and social attributes of neighborhoods play a role in childhood asthma remains understudied. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To examine associations of neighborhood-level opportunity and social vulnerability measures with childhood asthma incidence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This cohort study used data from children in 46 cohorts participating in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Program between January 1, 1995, and August 31, 2022. Participant inclusion required at least 1 geocoded residential address from birth and parent or caregiver report of a physician's diagnosis of asthma. Participants were followed up to the date of asthma diagnosis, date of last visit or loss to follow-up, or age 20 years. EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:Census tract-level Child Opportunity Index (COI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) at birth, infancy, or early childhood, grouped into very low (<20th percentile), low (20th to <40th percentile), moderate (40th to <60th percentile), high (60th to <80th percentile), or very high (≥80th percentile) COI or SVI. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The main outcome was parent or caregiver report of a physician's diagnosis of childhood asthma (yes or no). Poisson regression models estimated asthma incidence rate ratios (IRRs) associated with COI and SVI scores at each life stage. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The study included 10 516 children (median age at follow-up, 9.1 years [IQR, 7.0-11.6 years]; 52.2% male), of whom 20.6% lived in neighborhoods with very high COI and very low SVI. The overall asthma incidence rate was 23.3 cases per 1000 child-years (median age at asthma diagnosis, 6.6 years [IQR, 4.1-9.9 years]). High and very high (vs very low) COI at birth, infancy, or early childhood were associated with lower subsequent asthma incidence independent of sociodemographic characteristics, parental asthma history, and parity. For example, compared with very low COI, the adjusted IRR for asthma was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.75-1.00) for high COI at birth and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.98) for very high COI at birth. These associations appeared to be attributable to the health and environmental and the social and economic domains of the COI. The SVI during early life was not significantly associated with asthma incidence. For example, compared with a very high SVI, the adjusted IRR for asthma was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75-1.02) for low SVI at birth and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.76-1.03) for very low SVI at birth. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:In this cohort study, high and very high neighborhood opportunity during early life compared with very low neighborhood opportunity were associated with lower childhood asthma incidence. These findings suggest the need for future studies examining whether investing in health and environmental or social and economic resources in early life would promote health equity in pediatric asthma.

IMPORTANCE:Emergency department (ED) pediatric readiness is associated with improved survival among children. However, the association between geographic access to high-readiness EDs in US trauma centers and mortality is unclear. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the association between the proximity of injury location to receiving trauma centers, including the level of ED pediatric readiness, and mortality among injured children. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:This retrospective cohort study used a standardized risk-adjustment model to evaluate the association between trauma center proximity, ED pediatric readiness, and in-hospital survival. There were 765 trauma centers (level I-V, adult and pediatric) that contributed data to the National Trauma Data Bank (January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2017) and completed the 2013 National Pediatric Readiness Assessment (conducted from January 1 through August 31, 2013). The study comprised children aged younger than 18 years who were transported by ground to the included trauma centers. Data analysis was performed between January 1 and March 31, 2022. EXPOSURES:Trauma center proximity within 30 minutes by ground transport and ED pediatric readiness, as measured by weighted pediatric readiness score (wPRS; range, 0-100; quartiles 1 [low readiness] to 4 [high readiness]). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:In-hospital mortality. We used a patient-level mixed-effects logistic regression model to evaluate the association of transport time, proximity, and ED pediatric readiness on mortality. RESULTS:This study included 212 689 injured children seen at 765 trauma centers. The median patient age was 10 (IQR, 4-15) years, 136 538 (64.2%) were male, and 127 885 (60.1%) were White. A total of 4156 children (2.0%) died during their hospital stay. The median wPRS at these hospitals was 79.1 (IQR, 62.9-92.7). A total of 105 871 children (49.8%) were transported to trauma centers with high-readiness EDs (wPRS quartile 4) and another 36 330 children (33.7%) were injured within 30 minutes of a quartile 4 ED. After adjustment for confounders, proximity, and transport time, high ED pediatric readiness was associated with lower mortality (highest-readiness vs lowest-readiness EDs by wPRS quartiles: adjusted odds ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.47-0.89]). The survival benefit of high-readiness EDs persisted for transport times up to 45 minutes. The findings suggest that matching children to trauma centers with high-readiness EDs within 30 minutes of the injury location may have potentially saved 468 lives (95% CI, 460-476 lives), but increasing all trauma centers to high ED pediatric readiness may have potentially saved 1655 lives (95% CI, 1647-1664 lives). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:These findings suggest that trauma centers with high ED pediatric readiness had lower mortality after considering transport time and proximity. Improving ED pediatric readiness among all trauma centers, rather than selective transport to trauma centers with high ED readiness, had the largest association with pediatric survival. Thus, increased pediatric readiness at all US trauma centers may substantially improve patient outcomes after trauma.

OBJECTIVE:Individuals with criminal legal involvement have high rates of substance use and other mental disorders. Before implementation of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion, they also had low health insurance coverage. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of Medicaid expansion on health insurance coverage and use of treatment for substance use or other mental disorders in this population. METHODS:The authors used restricted data (2010-2017) from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Using a difference-in-differences approach, the authors estimated the impact of Medicaid expansion on health insurance coverage and treatment for substance use or other mental disorders among individuals with recent criminal legal involvement. RESULTS:The sample consisted of 9,910 NSDUH respondents who were ages 18-64 years, had a household income ≤138% of the federal poverty level, and reported past-year criminal legal involvement. Medicaid expansion was associated with an 18 percentage-point increase in insurance coverage but no change in receipt of substance use treatment among individuals with substance use disorder. Individuals with any other mental illness had a 16 percentage-point increase in insurance coverage but no change in receipt of mental health treatment. CONCLUSIONS:Despite a large increase in health insurance coverage among individuals with criminal legal involvement and substance use or other mental disorders, Medicaid expansion was not associated with a significant change in treatment use for these conditions. Insurance access alone appears to be insufficient to increase treatment for substance use or other mental disorders in this population.

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Consumers are increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots as a source of information. However, the quality of the cancer information generated by these chatbots has not yet been evaluated using validated instruments. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To characterize the quality of information and presence of misinformation about skin, lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers generated by 4 AI chatbots. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This cross-sectional study assessed AI chatbots' text responses to the 5 most commonly searched queries related to the 5 most common cancers using validated instruments. Search data were extracted from the publicly available Google Trends platform and identical prompts were used to generate responses from 4 AI chatbots: ChatGPT version 3.5 (OpenAI), Perplexity (Perplexity.AI), Chatsonic (Writesonic), and Bing AI (Microsoft). EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:Google Trends' top 5 search queries related to skin, lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer from January 1, 2021, to January 1, 2023, were input into 4 AI chatbots. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The primary outcomes were the quality of consumer health information based on the validated DISCERN instrument (scores from 1 [low] to 5 [high] for quality of information) and the understandability and actionability of this information based on the understandability and actionability domains of the Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool (PEMAT) (scores of 0%-100%, with higher scores indicating a higher level of understandability and actionability). Secondary outcomes included misinformation scored using a 5-item Likert scale (scores from 1 [no misinformation] to 5 [high misinformation]) and readability assessed using the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level readability score. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The analysis included 100 responses from 4 chatbots about the 5 most common search queries for skin, lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer. The quality of text responses generated by the 4 AI chatbots was good (median [range] DISCERN score, 5 [2-5]) and no misinformation was identified. Understandability was moderate (median [range] PEMAT Understandability score, 66.7% [33.3%-90.1%]), and actionability was poor (median [range] PEMAT Actionability score, 20.0% [0%-40.0%]). The responses were written at the college level based on the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:Findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that AI chatbots generally produce accurate information for the top cancer-related search queries, but the responses are not readily actionable and are written at a college reading level. These limitations suggest that AI chatbots should be used supplementarily and not as a primary source for medical information.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:Proteomics could provide pathophysiologic insight into the increased risk of mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to investigate associations between the circulating proteome and all-cause mortality among patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:Primary analysis in 703 participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) and validation in 1,628 participants with CKD in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who attended visit 5. EXPOSURE/UNASSIGNED:Circulating proteins. OUTCOME/UNASSIGNED:All-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH/UNASSIGNED:Among AASK participants, we evaluated the associations of 6,790 circulating proteins with all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Proteins with significant associations were further studied in ARIC Visit 5 participants with CKD. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:-microglobulin, spondin-1, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) were available in the ARIC data, with all 3 significantly associated with death in ARIC. LIMITATIONS/UNASSIGNED:Possibility of unmeasured confounding. Cause of death was not known. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Using large-scale proteomic analysis, proteins were reproducibly associated with mortality in 2 cohorts of participants with CKD. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY/UNASSIGNED:-microglobulin, spondin-1, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (BNP)) were also measured in ARIC and were significantly associated with death. Additional studies assessing biomarkers associated with mortality among patients with CKD are needed to evaluate their use in clinical practice.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:Use of cystatin C in addition to creatinine to estimate glomerular filtration rate (estimated glomerular filtration rate based on cystatin C [eGFRcys] and estimated glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine [eGFRcr], respectively) is increasing. When eGFRcr and eGFRcys are discordant, it is not known which is more accurate, leading to uncertainty in clinical decision making. STUDY DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:Four thousand fifty participants with measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR) from 12 studies in North America and Europe. EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:Serum creatinine and serum cystatin C. OUTCOMES/UNASSIGNED:Performance of creatinine-based and cystatin C-based glomerular filtration rate estimating equations compared to mGFR. ANALYTICAL APPROACH/UNASSIGNED:(negative, concordant, and positive groups, respectively). We compared bias (median of mGFR minus eGFR) and the percentage of eGFR within 30% of mGFR. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:), with opposite results in the positive eGFRdiff group. In both negative and positive eGFRdiff groups, eGFRcr-cys was more accurate than either eGFRcr or eGFRcys. These results were largely consistent across age, sex, race, and body mass index. LIMITATIONS/UNASSIGNED:Few participants with major comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Discordant eGFRcr and eGFRcys are common. eGFR using the combination of creatinine and cystatin C provides the most accurate estimates among persons with discordant eGFRcr or eGFRcys.