Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Unintentional drug overdose has increased markedly in the past two decades and surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in many states. The purpose of this study was to understand the trajectory of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States by applying Farr's Law. Farr's "law of epidemics" and the Bregman-Langmuir back calculation method were applied to United States drug overdose mortality data for the years 1980 through 2011 to project the annual death rates from drug overdose from 2012 through 2035. FINDINGS/RESULTS:From 1980-2011, annual drug overdose mortality increased from 2.7 to 13.2 deaths per 100,000 population. The projected drug overdose mortality would peak in 2016-2017 at 16.1 deaths per 100,000 population and then decline progressively until reaching 1.9 deaths per 100,000 population in 2035. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The projected data based on Farr's Law suggests that drug overdose mortality in the United States will decline in the coming years and return to the 1980 baseline level approximately by the year 2034.

BACKGROUND:In 2005, the US Congress allocated $612 million for a national Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program to encourage walking and bicycling to schools. We evaluated the effectiveness of a SRTS in controlling pedestrian injuries among school-age children. METHODS:Bayesian changepoint analysis was applied to model the quarterly counts of pedestrian injuries among 5- to 19-year old children in New York City between 2001 and 2010 during school-travel hours in census tracts with and without SRTS. Overdispersed Poisson model was used to estimate difference-in-differences in injury risk between census tracts with and without SRTS following the changepoint. RESULTS:In SRTS-intervention census tracts, a change point in the quarterly counts of injuries was identified in the second quarter of 2008, which was consistent with the timing of the implementation of SRTS interventions. In census tracts with SRTS interventions, the estimated quarterly rates of pedestrian injury per 10,000 population among school-age children during school-travel hours were 3.47 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 2.67, 4.39) prior to the changepoint, and 0.74 (95% CrI 0.30, 1.50) after the changepoint. There was no change in the average number of quarterly injuries in non-SRTS census tracts. Overdispersed Poisson modeling revealed that SRTS implementation was associated with a 44% reduction (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 87% decrease to 130% increase) in school-age pedestrian injury risk during school-travel hours. CONCLUSIONS:Bayesian changepoint analysis of quarterly counts of school-age pedestrian injuries successfully identified the timing of SRTS intervention in New York City. Implementation of the SRTS program in New York City appears to be effective in reducing school-age pedestrian injuries during school-travel hours.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiologic studies examining the association between anesthetic exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes have primarily focused on exposures occurring under 3 years of age. In this study, we assess outcomes associated with initial anesthetic exposure occurring between 3 and 10 years of age. METHODS: We used data from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study to examine the risk of cognitive deficit at age 10 in children with initial anesthetic exposure between 3 and 5 years and between 5 and 10 years of age compared with children unexposed at those ages. The cohort included 2868 children born from 1989 to 1992 evaluated using a range of neuropsychological tests. A modified multivariable Poisson regression model was used to determine the adjusted association of initial anesthetic exposure in each age group with outcomes. RESULTS: Exposed and unexposed children were found to have similar neuropsychological test results except for the McCarron Assessment of Neuromuscular Development (MAND) motor function scores. Even after adjusting for demographic and comorbidity differences, children exposed to anesthesia had a higher risk of motor deficit after initial exposure between ages 3 and 5 years (adjusted risk ratio, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-3.79) and between 5 and 10 years (adjusted risk ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-4.48) compared with unexposed children. CONCLUSIONS: Initial exposure to anesthesia after age 3 had no measurable effects on language or cognitive function. Decreased motor function was found in children initially exposed after age 3 even after accounting for comorbid illness and injury history. These results suggest that there may be distinct windows of vulnerability for different neurodevelopmental domains in children.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a package of roadway modifications in New York City funded under the Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate long-term impacts of SRTS on injury reduction and the associated savings in medical costs, lifelong disability, and death. Model inputs included societal costs (in 2013 US dollars) and observed spatiotemporal changes in injury rates associated with New York City's implementation of SRTS relative to control intersections. Structural changes to roadways were assumed to last 50 years before further investment is required. Therefore, costs were discounted over 50 consecutive cohorts of modified roadway users under SRTS. RESULTS: SRTS was associated with an overall net societal benefit of $230 million and 2055 quality-adjusted life years gained in New York City. CONCLUSIONS: SRTS reduces injuries and saves money over the long run.

INTRODUCTION: Immature animals exposed to anesthesia display apoptotic neurodegeneration and neurobehavioral deficits. The safety of anesthetic agents in children has been evaluated using a variety of neurodevelopmental outcome measures with varied results. METHODS: The authors used data from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study to examine the association between exposure to anesthesia in children younger than 3 yr of age and three types of outcomes at age of 10 yr: neuropsychological testing, International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification-coded clinical disorders, and academic achievement. The authors' primary analysis was restricted to children with data for all outcomes and covariates from the total cohort of 2,868 children born from 1989 to 1992. The authors used a modified multivariable Poisson regression model to determine the adjusted association of anesthesia exposure with outcomes. RESULTS: Of 781 children studied, 112 had anesthesia exposure. The incidence of deficit ranged from 5.1 to 7.8% in neuropsychological tests, 14.6 to 29.5% in International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification-coded outcomes, and 4.2 to 11.8% in academic achievement tests. Compared with unexposed peers, exposed children had an increased risk of deficit in neuropsychological language assessments (Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals Total Score: adjusted risk ratio, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.41 to 4.33, Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals Receptive Language Score: adjusted risk ratio, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.19 to 4.18, and Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals Expressive Language Score: adjusted risk ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.08 to 3.68) and International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification-coded language and cognitive disorders (adjusted risk ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.10), but not academic achievement scores. CONCLUSIONS: When assessing cognition in children with early exposure to anesthesia, the results may depend on the outcome measure used. Neuropsychological and International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification-coded clinical outcomes showed an increased risk of deficit in exposed children compared with that in unexposed children, whereas academic achievement scores did not. This may explain some of the variation in the literature and underscores the importance of the outcome measures when interpreting studies of cognitive function.

OBJECTIVE: In the United States, per-capita opioid dispensing has increased concurrently with analgesic-related mortality and morbidity since the 1990s. To deter diversion and abuse of controlled substances, most states have implemented electronic prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs). We evaluated the impact of state PDMPs on opioid dispensing. METHODS: We acquired data on opioids dispensed in a given quarter of the year for each state and the District of Columbia from 1999 to 2008 from the Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System and converted them to morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs). We used multivariable linear regression modeling with generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of state PDMPs on per-capita dispensing of MMEs. RESULTS: The annual MMEs dispensed per capita increased progressively until 2007 before stabilizing. Adjusting for temporal trends and demographic characteristics, implementation of state PDMPs was associated with a 3% decrease in MMEs dispensed per capita (p=0.68). The impact of PDMPs on MMEs dispensed per capita varied markedly by state, from a 66% decrease in Colorado to a 61% increase in Connecticut. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of state PDMPs up to 2008 did not show a significant impact on per-capita opioids dispensed. To control the diversion and abuse of prescription drugs, state PDMPs may need to improve their usability, implement requirements for committee oversight of the PDMP, and increase data sharing with neighboring states.

Health information exchange (HIE) provides an essential enhancement to electronic health records (EHR), allowing information to follow patients across provider organizations. There is also an opportunity to improve public health surveillance, quality measurement, and research through secondary use of HIE data, but data quality presents potential barriers. Our objective was to validate the secondary use of HIE data for two emergency department (ED) quality measures: identification of frequent ED users and early (72-hour) ED returns. We compared concordance of various demographic and encounter data from an HIE for four hospitals to data provided by the hospitals from their EHRs over a two year period, and then compared measurement of our two quality measures using both HIE and EHR data. We found that, following data cleaning, there was no significant difference in the total counts for frequent ED users or early ED returns for any of the four hospitals (p<0.001).

BACKGROUND: In 2005, the US Congress allocated $612 million for a national Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program to encourage walking and bicycling to schools. We analyzed motor vehicle crash data to assess the effectiveness of SRTS interventions in reducing school-aged pedestrian injury in New York City. METHODS: Using geocoded motor vehicle crash data for 168 806 pedestrian injuries in New York City between 2001 and 2010, annual pedestrian injury rates per 10 000 population were calculated for different age groups and for census tracts with and without SRTS interventions during school-travel hours (defined as 7 am to 9 am and 2 pm to 4 pm, Monday through Friday during September through June). RESULTS: During the study period, the annual rate of pedestrian injury decreased 33% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 30 to 36) among school-aged children (5- to 19-year-olds) and 14% (95% CI: 12 to 16) in other age groups. The annual rate of school-aged pedestrian injury during school-travel hours decreased 44% (95% CI: 17 to 65) from 8.0 injuries per 10 000 population in the preintervention period (2001-2008) to 4.4 injuries per 10 000 population in the postintervention period (2009-2010) in census tracts with SRTS interventions. The rate remained virtually unchanged in census tracts without SRTS interventions (0% [95% CI: -8 to 8]). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the SRTS program in New York City has contributed to a marked reduction in pedestrian injury in school-aged children.