Faculty Bibliography

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO₂) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO₂ emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO₂ estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography, and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine¹ (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO₂ estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency, and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO₂ estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO₂. Our preferred mean SC-CO₂ estimate is $185 per tonne of CO₂ ($44-413/t-CO₂: 5-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2 percent, a value 3.6-times higher than the US government's current value of $51/t-CO₂. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO₂ estimation in the new open-source GIVE model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO₂ values, compared to estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

INTRODUCTION/UNASSIGNED:The learning health system (LHS) aligns science, informatics, incentives, stakeholders, and culture for continuous improvement and innovation. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute designed a K12 initiative to grow the number of LHS scientists. We describe approaches developed by 11 funded centers of excellence (COEs) to promote partnerships between scholars and health system leaders and to provide mentored research training. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Since 2018, the COEs have enlisted faculty, secured institutional resources, partnered with health systems, developed and implemented curricula, recruited scholars, and provided mentored training. Program directors for each COE provided descriptive data on program context, scholar characteristics, stakeholder engagement, scholar experiences with health system partnerships, roles following program completion, and key training challenges. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:To date, the 11 COEs have partnered with health systems to train 110 scholars. Nine (82%) programs partner with a Veterans Affairs health system and 9 (82%) partner with safety net providers. Clinically trained scholars (n = 87; 79%) include 70 physicians and 17 scholars in other clinical disciplines. Non-clinicians (n = 29; 26%) represent diverse fields, dominated by population health sciences. Stakeholder engagement helps scholars understand health system and patient/family needs and priorities, enabling opportunities to conduct embedded research, improve outcomes, and grow skills in translating research methods and findings into practice. Challenges include supporting scholars through roadblocks that threaten to derail projects during their limited program time, ranging from delays in access to data to COVID-19-related impediments and shifts in organizational priorities. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Four years into this novel training program, there is evidence of scholars' accomplishments, both in traditional academic terms and in terms of moving along career trajectories that hold the potential to lead and accelerate transformational health system change. Future LHS training efforts should focus on sustainability, including organizational support for scholar activities.

OBJECTIVE:To assess whether echocardiographic parameters of left ventricular (LV) structure and function relate to the long-term risk of incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). PATIENTS AND METHODS:We conducted a prospective cohort study analyzing 2137 Black participants from the Jackson site of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study from January 1, 1993, through July 31, 2017. Echocardiographic parameters of LV structure and function were obtained from 1993 to 1995. The primary outcome incident ESKD was identified through the linkage to the United States Renal Data System. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) according to each echocardiographic parameter. RESULTS:There were 117 incident ESKD cases during a median follow-up of 22.2 (interquartile range, 15.0-23.3) years. Multivariable Cox models revealed that a higher LV mass index was significantly associated with the risk of ESKD (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.21 to 4.68 for highest vs lowest quartile, P = 0.012). The HRs were significant and even higher for LV posterior wall thickness, with slightly higher HRs when their measures in end-systole (HR for highest vs lowest quartile, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.94 to 9.92, P < 0.001) vs end-diastole (HR, 3.50; 95% CI, 1.53 to 8.01, P = 0.003) were used. The associations were not significant for LV function parameters. CONCLUSION:In Black individuals residing in the community, echocardiographic parameters of LV structure, including LV wall thickness, were robustly associated with the risk of subsequently incident ESKD. These results have potential implications for novel prevention and management strategies for persons with abnormal LV structure.

Pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) focus on correlation between treatment and outcomes in real-world clinical practice, yet a guide highlighting key study considerations and design types for emergency medicine investigators pursuing this important study type is not available. Investigators conducting ED-based PCTs face multiple decisions within the planning phase to ensure robust and meaningful study findings. The PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary 2 (PRECIS-2) tool allows trialists to consider both pragmatic and explanatory components across nine domains, shaping the trial design to the purpose intended by the investigators. Aside from the PRECIS-2 tool domains, ED-based investigators conducting PCTs should also consider randomization techniques, human subjects concerns, and integration of trial components within the electronic health record. The authors additionally highlight the advantages, disadvantages, and rationale for the use of four common randomized study design types to be considered in PCTs: parallel, crossover, factorial, and stepped-wedge. With increasing emphasis on the conduct of PCTs, emergency medicine investigators will benefit from a rigorous approach to clinical trial design.

BACKGROUND:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, data on national trends remain limited. AIMS/OBJECTIVE:To assess national trends in VTE-associated hospitalisations among patients with IBD as well as risk factors for, and mortality associated with, these events METHODS: Using the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000-2018, temporal trends in VTE were assessed using the National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program with estimates presented as the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS:Between 2000 and 2018, there were 4,859,728 hospitalisations among patients with IBD, with 128,236 (2.6%) having a VTE, and 6352 associated deaths. The rate of VTE among hospitalised patients with IBD increased from 192 to 295 cases per 10,000 hospitalisations (AAPC 2.4%, 95%CI 1.4%, 3.4%, p < 0.001), and remained significant when stratified by ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease as well as by deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. On multivariable analysis, increasing age, male sex, UC (aOR: 1.30, 95%CI 1.26, 1.33), identifying as non-Hispanic Black, and chronic corticosteroid use (aOR: 1.22, 95%CI 1.16, 1.29) were associated with an increased risk of a VTE-associated hospitalisation. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Rates of VTE-associated hospitalisations are increasing among patients with IBD. Continued efforts need to be placed on education and risk reduction.

This report summarizes the presentations, discussions, and recommendations of the most recent American Geriatrics Society and National Institute on Aging research conference, "Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease," on October 18-19, 2021. The purpose of this virtual meeting was to address the interface between cancer and heart disease, which are the two leading causes of death among older Americans. Age-related physiologic changes are implicated in the pathogenesis of both conditions. Emerging data suggest that cancer-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) involves disrupted cell signaling and cellular senescence. The risk factors for CVD are also risk factors for cancer and an increased likelihood of cancer death, and people who have both cancer and CVD do more poorly than those who have only cancer or only CVD. Issues addressed in this bench-to-bedside conference include mechanisms of cancer and CVD co-development in older adults, cardiotoxic effects of cancer therapy, and management of comorbid cancer and CVD. Presenters discussed approaches to ensure equitable access to clinical trials and health care for diverse populations of adults with CVD and cancer, mechanisms of cancer therapy cardiotoxicity, and management of comorbid CVD and cancer, including the role of patient values and preferences in treatment decisions. Workshop participants identified many research gaps and questions that could lead to an enhanced understanding of comorbid CVD and cancer and to better and more equitable management strategies.

Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 have unduly affected older adults from racial and ethnic minority groups. In this article, we highlight the experiences and vulnerabilities of diverse older adults with complex health and social needs when their access to vital, but overlooked, community-based adult day service centers (ADSCs) was abruptly cut off during a pandemic. Pandemic-related ADSC closures left vulnerable older adults and their care partners without essential daily support and services, such as health monitoring and socialization. However, the magnitude of the impact of ADSC closures on well-being, particularly among members of racial/ethnic minority groups, has yet to be measured with any form of "big data" because large-scale, nationally representative data sets consisting of participant-level information and outcomes associated with ADSC participation do not yet exist. Unmet needs of older adults resulting from pandemic-related ADSC closures are underrecognized because of a lack of systematic data collection, undermining efforts to achieve health equity. We call on ADSCs to link rigorous collection of racial and ethnic data to quality measures of access to equitable "age-friendly" care as a means of better supporting diverse community-dwelling older adults beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1421-1428. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306968).