Faculty Bibliography

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO₂) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO₂ emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO₂ estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography, and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine¹ (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO₂ estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency, and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO₂ estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO₂. Our preferred mean SC-CO₂ estimate is $185 per tonne of CO₂ ($44-413/t-CO₂: 5-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2 percent, a value 3.6-times higher than the US government's current value of $51/t-CO₂. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO₂ estimation in the new open-source GIVE model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO₂ values, compared to estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

From March 2020 through May 2021, nightlife venues were shut down and large gatherings were deemed illegal in New York City (NYC) due to COVID-19. This study sought to determine the extent of risky party attendance during the COVID-19 shutdown among people who attend electronic dance music parties in NYC. During the first four months that venues were permitted to reopen (June through September 2021), time-space sampling was used to survey adults (n = 278) about their party attendance during the first year of the shutdown (March 2020-March 2021). We examined prevalence and correlates of attendance and mask-wearing at such parties. A total of 43.9% attended private parties with more than 10 people, 27.3% attended nightclubs, and 20.5% attended other parties such as raves. Among those who attended any, 32.3% never wore a mask and 19.3% reported attending parties in which no one wore a mask. Past-year ecstasy use was associated with increased risk for attending private (aPR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.00-2.28) or other parties (aPR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.48-5.13), and use of 2C series drugs was associated with increased risk for attending nightclubs (aPR = 2.67, 95% CI: 1.24-5.77) or other parties (aPR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.06-5.87). Attending >10 parties was associated with increased risk for never wearing a mask (aPR = 2.74, 95% CI: 1.11-6.75) and for no other attendees wearing masks (aPR = 4.22, 95% CI: 1.26-14.07). Illegal dance parties continued in NYC during the COVID-19 shutdown. Prevention and harm reduction efforts to mitigate risk of COVID-19 transmission during such shutdowns are sorely needed.

BACKGROUND:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, data on national trends remain limited. AIMS/OBJECTIVE:To assess national trends in VTE-associated hospitalisations among patients with IBD as well as risk factors for, and mortality associated with, these events METHODS: Using the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000-2018, temporal trends in VTE were assessed using the National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program with estimates presented as the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS:Between 2000 and 2018, there were 4,859,728 hospitalisations among patients with IBD, with 128,236 (2.6%) having a VTE, and 6352 associated deaths. The rate of VTE among hospitalised patients with IBD increased from 192 to 295 cases per 10,000 hospitalisations (AAPC 2.4%, 95%CI 1.4%, 3.4%, p < 0.001), and remained significant when stratified by ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease as well as by deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. On multivariable analysis, increasing age, male sex, UC (aOR: 1.30, 95%CI 1.26, 1.33), identifying as non-Hispanic Black, and chronic corticosteroid use (aOR: 1.22, 95%CI 1.16, 1.29) were associated with an increased risk of a VTE-associated hospitalisation. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Rates of VTE-associated hospitalisations are increasing among patients with IBD. Continued efforts need to be placed on education and risk reduction.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE:Acute kidney injury (AKI) causes biochemical changes in the brain in animal models and is associated with adverse neurological complications in hospitalized patients. This study tested the association between AKI and incident dementia in a community-based cohort. STUDY DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Adult participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who experienced hospitalized AKI compared with participants hospitalized for other reasons (primary analysis, mean follow-up period 4.3 years) or participants without hospitalized AKI (secondary analysis). PREDICTORS:Incident AKI, defined by ICD codes from hospital records. OUTCOME:Incident dementia, diagnosed based on a combination of neurocognitive testing, informant interviews, ICD codes, and death certificates. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:In the primary analysis, we estimated the propensity for hospitalized AKI and matched these participants with those hospitalized for another reason to examine the association of AKI with subsequent onset of dementia (N = 1,708). In the secondary analysis, we estimated the association between time-varying hospitalized AKI and subsequent onset of dementia using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/center, education, smoking status, body mass index, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, baseline urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, systolic blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele, and C-reactive protein. RESULTS:The mean age in the propensity-matched cohort was 76.1 ± 6.5 (SD) years, and 53.2% of the participants were women. People who were hospitalized with AKI had a higher risk of dementia (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.02-1.52]; P = 0.03) compared with those without a hospitalization for AKI. The associations were slightly stronger in the time-varying analysis (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.48-1.92]; P < 0.001). Other risk factors for dementia included older age, male sex, higher albuminuria, diabetes, current smoker status, and presence of the APOE risk alleles. LIMITATIONS:Observational study, with AKI identified through diagnosis codes. CONCLUSIONS:Participants who experienced a hospitalization for AKI were at increased risk of dementia.

INTRODUCTION/UNASSIGNED:Prior studies have shown a direct association between U.S. birth and duration of residence with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) though, few have specifically focused on Asian Americans. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We utilized cross-sectional data from the 2006 to 2015 National Health Interview Survey. We compared prevalent cardiovascular risk factors and ASCVD among Asian American individuals by U.S. birth and duration of time spent in the U.S. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The study sample consisted of 18,150 Asian individuals of whom 20.5 % were Asian Indian, 20.5 % were Chinese, 23.4 % were Filipino, and 35.6 % were of other Asian ethnic groups. The mean (standard error) age was 43.8 (0.21) years and 53 % were women. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, U.S. birth was associated with a higher prevalence odds ratio (95 % confidence interval) of current smoking 1.31 (1.07,1.60), physical inactivity 0.62 (0.54,0.72), obesity 2.26 (1.91,2.69), hypertension 1.33 (1.12,1.58), and CAD 1.96 (1.24,3.11), but lower prevalence of stroke 0.28 (0.11,0.71). Spending greater than 15 years in the U.S. was associated with a higher prevalence of current smoking 1.65 (1.24,2.21), obesity 2.33 (1.57,3.47), diabetes 2.68 (1.17,6.15), and hyperlipidemia 1.72 (1.09,2.71). CONCLUSION/UNASSIGNED:Heterogeneity exists in cardiovascular risk factor burden among Asian Americans according to Asian ethnicity, U.S. birth, and duration of time living in the U.S.

Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 have unduly affected older adults from racial and ethnic minority groups. In this article, we highlight the experiences and vulnerabilities of diverse older adults with complex health and social needs when their access to vital, but overlooked, community-based adult day service centers (ADSCs) was abruptly cut off during a pandemic. Pandemic-related ADSC closures left vulnerable older adults and their care partners without essential daily support and services, such as health monitoring and socialization. However, the magnitude of the impact of ADSC closures on well-being, particularly among members of racial/ethnic minority groups, has yet to be measured with any form of "big data" because large-scale, nationally representative data sets consisting of participant-level information and outcomes associated with ADSC participation do not yet exist. Unmet needs of older adults resulting from pandemic-related ADSC closures are underrecognized because of a lack of systematic data collection, undermining efforts to achieve health equity. We call on ADSCs to link rigorous collection of racial and ethnic data to quality measures of access to equitable "age-friendly" care as a means of better supporting diverse community-dwelling older adults beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1421-1428. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306968).

OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the longitudinal association between plant-based diet index (PDI) score and incident erectile dysfunction (ED). MATERIALS AND METHODS:We conducted a prospective analysis of 21 942 men aged 40 to 75 years who were enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. ED was assessed with questionnaires every 4 years starting in 2000. Dietary data were collected via validated food frequency questionnaires completed every 4 years and were used to calculate total PDI scores, as well as healthy (hPDI) and unhealthy (uPDI) subscores. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for incident ED. All models were stratified by age (<60, 60 to <70, ≥70 years). RESULTS:Among men aged 60 to <70 years, hPDI was inversely associated with incident ED. Those in the highest quintile of hPDI in that age group had an 18% lower risk of ED (HR 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.91; P-trend <0.001) compared to those in the lowest quintile. Conversely, uPDI was positively associated with ED in men aged <60 years (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.60; P-trend = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS:Encouraging a healthy plant-based diet may be an environmentally sustainable intervention for men interested in maintaining erectile function.

This report summarizes the presentations, discussions, and recommendations of the most recent American Geriatrics Society and National Institute on Aging research conference, "Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease," on October 18-19, 2021. The purpose of this virtual meeting was to address the interface between cancer and heart disease, which are the two leading causes of death among older Americans. Age-related physiologic changes are implicated in the pathogenesis of both conditions. Emerging data suggest that cancer-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) involves disrupted cell signaling and cellular senescence. The risk factors for CVD are also risk factors for cancer and an increased likelihood of cancer death, and people who have both cancer and CVD do more poorly than those who have only cancer or only CVD. Issues addressed in this bench-to-bedside conference include mechanisms of cancer and CVD co-development in older adults, cardiotoxic effects of cancer therapy, and management of comorbid cancer and CVD. Presenters discussed approaches to ensure equitable access to clinical trials and health care for diverse populations of adults with CVD and cancer, mechanisms of cancer therapy cardiotoxicity, and management of comorbid CVD and cancer, including the role of patient values and preferences in treatment decisions. Workshop participants identified many research gaps and questions that could lead to an enhanced understanding of comorbid CVD and cancer and to better and more equitable management strategies.