Faculty Bibliography

Importance:Identifying which patients with COVID-19 are likely to benefit from COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) treatment may have a large public health impact. Objective:To develop an index for predicting the expected relative treatment benefit from CCP compared with treatment without CCP for patients hospitalized for COVID-19 using patients' baseline characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prognostic study used data from the COMPILE study, ie, a meta-analysis of pooled individual patient data from 8 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) evaluating CCP vs control in adults hospitalized for COVID-19 who were not receiving mechanical ventilation at randomization. A combination of baseline characteristics, termed the treatment benefit index (TBI), was developed based on 2287 patients in COMPILE using a proportional odds model, with baseline characteristics selected via cross-validation. The TBI was externally validated on 4 external data sets: the Expanded Access Program (1896 participants), a study conducted under Emergency Use Authorization (210 participants), and 2 RCTs (with 80 and 309 participants). Exposure:Receipt of CCP. Main Outcomes and Measures:World Health Organization (WHO) 11-point ordinal COVID-19 clinical status scale and 2 derivatives of it (ie, WHO score of 7-10, indicating mechanical ventilation to death, and WHO score of 10, indicating death) at day 14 and day 28 after randomization. Day 14 WHO 11-point ordinal scale was used as the primary outcome to develop the TBI. Results:A total of 2287 patients were included in the derivation cohort, with a mean (SD) age of 60.3 (15.2) years and 815 (35.6%) women. The TBI provided a continuous gradation of benefit, and, for clinical utility, it was operationalized into groups of expected large clinical benefit (B1; 629 participants in the derivation cohort [27.5%]), moderate benefit (B2; 953 [41.7%]), and potential harm or no benefit (B3; 705 [30.8%]). Patients with preexisting conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases), with blood type A or AB, and at an early COVID-19 stage (low baseline WHO scores) were expected to benefit most, while those without preexisting conditions and at more advanced stages of COVID-19 could potentially be harmed. In the derivation cohort, odds ratios for worse outcome, where smaller odds ratios indicate larger benefit from CCP, were 0.69 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.48-1.06) for B1, 0.82 (95% CrI, 0.61-1.11) for B2, and 1.58 (95% CrI, 1.14-2.17) for B3. Testing on 4 external datasets supported the validation of the derived TBIs. Conclusions and Relevance:The findings of this study suggest that the CCP TBI is a simple tool that can quantify the relative benefit from CCP treatment for an individual patient hospitalized with COVID-19 that can be used to guide treatment recommendations. The TBI precision medicine approach could be especially helpful in a pandemic.

Importance:COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is a potentially beneficial treatment for COVID-19 that requires rigorous testing. Objective:To compile individual patient data from randomized clinical trials of CCP and to monitor the data until completion or until accumulated evidence enables reliable conclusions regarding the clinical outcomes associated with CCP. Data Sources:From May to August 2020, a systematic search was performed for trials of CCP in the literature, clinical trial registry sites, and medRxiv. Domain experts at local, national, and international organizations were consulted regularly. Study Selection:Eligible trials enrolled hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19, not receiving mechanical ventilation, and randomized them to CCP or control. The administered CCP was required to have measurable antibodies assessed locally. Data Extraction and Synthesis:A minimal data set was submitted regularly via a secure portal, analyzed using a prespecified bayesian statistical plan, and reviewed frequently by a collective data and safety monitoring board. Main Outcomes and Measures:Prespecified coprimary end points-the World Health Organization (WHO) 11-point ordinal scale analyzed using a proportional odds model and a binary indicator of WHO score of 7 or higher capturing the most severe outcomes including mechanical ventilation through death and analyzed using a logistic model-were assessed clinically at 14 days after randomization. Results:Eight international trials collectively enrolled 2369 participants (1138 randomized to control and 1231 randomized to CCP). A total of 2341 participants (median [IQR] age, 60 [50-72] years; 845 women [35.7%]) had primary outcome data as of April 2021. The median (IQR) of the ordinal WHO scale was 3 (3-6); the cumulative OR was 0.94 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.74-1.19; posterior probability of OR <1 of 71%). A total of 352 patients (15%) had WHO score greater than or equal to 7; the OR was 0.94 (95% CrI, 0.69-1.30; posterior probability of OR <1 of 65%). Adjusted for baseline covariates, the ORs for mortality were 0.88 at day 14 (95% CrI, 0.61-1.26; posterior probability of OR <1 of 77%) and 0.85 at day 28 (95% CrI, 0.62-1.18; posterior probability of OR <1 of 84%). Heterogeneity of treatment effect sizes was observed across an array of baseline characteristics. Conclusions and Relevance:This meta-analysis found no association of CCP with better clinical outcomes for the typical patient. These findings suggest that real-time individual patient data pooling and meta-analysis during a pandemic are feasible, offering a model for future research and providing a rich data resource.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:To outline a method for obtaining more accurate estimates of drug use in the United States (US) general population by correcting survey data for underreported and unknown drug use. METHODS:We simulated a population (n=100,000) reflecting the demographics of the US adult population per the 2018 American Community Survey. Within this population, we simulated the "true" and self-reported prevalence of past-month cannabis and cocaine use by using available estimates of underreporting. We applied our algorithm to samples of the simulated population to correct self-reported estimates and recover the "true" population prevalence, validating our approach. We applied this same method to 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health data to produce a range of underreporting-corrected estimates. RESULTS:Simulated self-report sensitivities varied by drug and sampling method (cannabis: 77.6-78.5%, cocaine: 14.3-22.1%). Across repeated samples, mean corrected prevalences (calculated by dividing self-reported prevalence by estimated sensitivity) closely approximated simulated "true" prevalences. Applying our algorithm substantially increased 2018 NSDUH estimates (self-report: cannabis=10.5%, cocaine=0.8%; corrected: cannabis=15.6-16.6%, cocaine=2.7-5.5%). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:National drug use prevalence estimates can be corrected for underreporting using a simple method. However, valid application of this method requires accurate data on the extent and correlates of misclassification in the general US population.

Purpose/UNASSIGNED:Growing evidence suggests that dendrite retraction or degeneration in a subpopulation of the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) may precede detectable soma abnormalities and RGC death in glaucoma. Visualization of the lamellar structure of the inner plexiform layer (IPL) could advance clinical management and fundamental understanding of glaucoma. We investigated whether visible-light optical coherence tomography (vis-OCT) could detect the difference in the IPL sublayer thicknesses between small cohorts of healthy and glaucomatous subjects. Method/UNASSIGNED:We imaged nine healthy and five glaucomatous subjects with vis-OCT. Four of the healthy subjects were scanned three times each in two separate visits, and five healthy and five glaucoma subjects were scanned three times during a single visit. IPL sublayers were manually segmented using averaged A-line profiles. Results/UNASSIGNED:The mean ages of glaucoma and healthy subjects are 59.6 ± 13.4 and 45.4 ± 14.4 years (P = 0.02.) The visual field mean deviations (MDs) are -26.4 to -7.7 dB in glaucoma patients and -1.6 to 1.1 dB in healthy subjects (P = 0.002). Median coefficients of variation (CVs) of intrasession repeatability for the entire IPL and three sublayers are 3.1%, 5.6%, 6.9%, and 5.6% in healthy subjects and 1.8%, 6.0%, 7.7%, and 6.2% in glaucoma patients, respectively. The mean IPL thicknesses are 36.2 ± 1.5 µm in glaucomatous and 40.1 ± 1.7 µm in healthy eyes (P = 0.003). Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:IPL sublayer analysis revealed that the middle sublayer could be responsible for the majority of IPL thinning in glaucoma. Vis-OCT quantified IPL sublayers with good repeatability in both glaucoma and healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND:African American (AA) recipients of deceased-donor (DD) kidney transplants (KT) have shorter allograft survival than recipients of other ethnic groups. Reasons for this disparity encompass complex interactions between donors and recipients characteristics. METHODS:Outcomes from 3872 AA and 19,719 European American (EA) DDs who had one kidney transplanted in an AA recipient and one in an EA recipient were analyzed. Four donor/recipient pair groups (DRP) were studied, AA/AA, AA/EA, EA/AA, and EA/EA. Survival random forests and Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to rank and evaluate modifying effects of DRP on variables associated with allograft survival. These analyses sought to identify factors contributing to the observed disparities in transplant outcomes among AA and EA DDKT recipients. RESULTS:Transplant era, discharge serum creatinine, delayed graft function, and DRP were among the top predictors of allograft survival and mortality among DDKT recipients. Interaction effects between DRP with the kidney donor risk index and transplant era showed significant improvement in allograft survival over time in EA recipients. However, AA recipients appeared to have similar or poorer outcomes for DDKT performed after 2010 versus before 2001; allograft survival hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.15 (0.74, 1.76) and 1.07 (0.8, 1.45) for AA/AA and EA/AA, compared to 0.62 (0.54, 0.71) and 0.5 (0.41, 0.62) for EA/EA and AA/EA DRP, respectively. Recipient mortality improved over time among all DRP, except unemployed AA/AAs. Relative to DDKT performed pre-2001, employed AA/AAs had HR = 0.37 (0.2, 0.69) versus 0.59 (0.31, 1.11) for unemployed AA/AA after 2010. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Relative to DDKT performed before 2001, similar or worse overall DCAS was observed among AA/AAs, while EA/EAs experienced considerable improvement regardless of employment status, KDRI, and EPTS. AA recipients of an AA DDKT, especially if unemployed, had worse allograft survival and mortality and did not appear to benefit from advances in care over the past 20 years.

CONTEXT/BACKGROUND:Accelerating evidence of endocrine-related morbidity has raised alarm about the ubiquitous use of phthalates in the human environment, but studies have not directly evaluated mortality in relation to these exposures. OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:To evaluate associations of phthalate exposure with mortality, and quantify attributable mortality and lost economic productivity in 2013-4 among 55-64 year olds. DESIGN/METHODS:This nationally representative cohort study included 5303 adults aged 20 years or older who participated in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2010 and provided urine samples for phthalate metabolite measurements. Participants were linked to mortality data from survey date through December 31, 2015. Data analyses were conducted in July 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES/METHODS:Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. RESULTS:Multivariable models identified increased mortality in relation to high-molecular weight (HMW) phthalate metabolites, especially those of di-2-ethylhexylphthalate (DEHP). Hazard ratios (HR) for continuous HMW and DEHP metabolites were 1.14 (95% CI 1.06-1.23) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.03-1.19), respectively, with consistently higher mortality in the third tertile (1.48, 95% CI 1.19-1.86; and 1.42, 95% CI 1.13-1.78). Cardiovascular mortality was significantly increased in relation to a prominent DEHP metabolite, mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl)phthalate. Extrapolating to the population of 55-64 year old Americans, we identified 90,761-107,283 attributable deaths and $39.9-47.1 billion in lost economic productivity. CONCLUSIONS:In a nationally representative sample, phthalate exposures were associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with societal costs approximating $39 billion/year or more. While further studies are needed to corroborate observations and identify mechanisms, regulatory action is urgently needed.

Exclusion of special populations (older adults; pregnant women, children, and adolescents; individuals of lower socioeconomic status and/or who live in rural communities; people from racial and ethnic minority groups; individuals from sexual or gender minority groups; and individuals with disabilities) in research is a pervasive problem, despite efforts and policy changes by the National Institutes of Health and other organizations. These populations are adversely impacted by social determinants of health (SDOH) that reduce access and ability to participate in biomedical research. In March of 2020, the Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute hosted the "Lifespan and Life Course Research: integrating strategies" "Un-Meeting" to discuss barriers and solutions to underrepresentation of special populations in biomedical research. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted how exclusion of representative populations in research can increase health inequities. We applied findings of this meeting to perform a literature review of barriers and solutions to recruitment and retention of representative populations in research and to discuss how findings are important to research conducted during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight the role of SDOH, review barriers and solutions to underrepresentation, and discuss the importance of a structural competency framework to improve research participation and retention among special populations.

OBJECTIVE:To estimate difference in population-level glycemic control and the emergence of diabetes complications given a theoretical scenario in which non-White youth and young adults (YYA) with type 1 diabetes (T1D) receive and follow an equivalent distribution of diabetes treatment regimens as non-Hispanic White YYA. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS/METHODS:) and the prevalence of diabetes complications for non-White YYA. RESULTS:< 0.05), although the low proportion of YYA who developed complications limited statistical power for risk estimations. CONCLUSIONS:Mathematically modeling an equalized distribution of T1D self-management tools and technology accounted for part of but not all disparities in glycemic control between non-White and White YYA, underscoring the complexity of race and ethnicity-based health inequity.