Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular guidelines include risk prediction models for decision making that lack the capacity to include novel predictors.Methods and Results:We explored a new "predictor patch" approach to calibrating the predicted risk from a base model according to 2 components from outside datasets: (1) the difference in observed vs. expected values of novel predictors and (2) the hazard ratios (HRs) for novel predictors, in a scenario of adding kidney measures for cardiovascular mortality. Using 4 US cohorts (n=54,425) we alternately chose 1 as the base dataset and constructed a base prediction model with traditional predictors for cross-validation. In the 3 other "outside" datasets, we developed a linear regression model with traditional predictors for estimating expected values of glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria and obtained their adjusted HRs of cardiovascular mortality, together constituting a "patch" for adding kidney measures to the base model. The base model predicted cardiovascular mortality well in each cohort (c-statistic 0.78-0.91). The addition of kidney measures using a patch significantly improved discrimination (cross-validated ∆c-statistic 0.006 [0.004-0.008]) to a similar degree as refitting these kidney measures in each base dataset. CONCLUSIONS:The addition of kidney measures using our new "predictor patch" approach based on estimates from outside datasets improved cardiovascular mortality prediction based on traditional predictors, providing an option to incorporate novel predictors to an existing prediction model.

This study used repeated measures data to identify developmental profiles of elevated risk for ADHD (i.e., six or more inattentive and/or hyperactive-impulsive symptoms), with an interest in the age at which ADHD risk first emerged. Risk factors that were measured across the first 3 years of life were used to predict profile membership. Participants included 1,173 children who were drawn from the Family Life Project, an ongoing longitudinal study of children's development in low-income, nonmetropolitan communities. Four heuristic profiles of ADHD risk were identified. Approximately two thirds of children never exhibited elevated risk for ADHD. The remaining children were characterized by early childhood onset and persistent risk (5%), early childhood limited risk (10%), and middle childhood onset risk (19%). Pregnancy and delivery complications and harsh-intrusive caregiving behaviors operated as general risk for all ADHD profiles. Parental history of ADHD was uniquely predictive of early onset and persistent ADHD risk, and low primary caregiver education was uniquely predictive of early childhood limited ADHD risk. Results are discussed with respect to how changes to the age of onset criterion for ADHD in DSM5 may affect etiological research and the need for developmental models of ADHD that inform ADHD symptom persistence and desistance.

BACKGROUND:Substance use disorders (SUDs) and psychiatric disorders are common among people with HIV (PWH) and lead to poor outcomes. Yet these conditions often go unrecognized and untreated in primary care. METHODS:The Promoting Access to Care Engagement (PACE) trial currently in process examines the impact of self-administered electronic screening for SUD risk, depression and anxiety in three large Kaiser Permanente Northern California primary care clinics serving over 5000 PWH. Screening uses validated measures (Tobacco, Alcohol, Prescription medication, and other Substance use [TAPS]; and the Adult Outcomes Questionnaire [AOQ], which includes the Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9] and Generalized Anxiety Disorder [GAD-2]) delivered via three modalities (secure messaging, tablets in waiting rooms, and desktop computers in exam rooms). Results are integrated automatically into the electronic health record. Based on screening results and physician referrals, behavioral health specialists embedded in primary care initiate motivational interviewing- and cognitive behavioral therapy-based brief treatment and link patients to addiction and psychiatry clinics as needed. Analyses examine implementation (screening and treatment rates) and effectiveness (SUD, depression and anxiety symptoms; HIV viral control) outcomes using a stepped-wedge design, with a 12-month intervention phase implemented sequentially in the clinics, and a 24-month usual care period prior to implementation in each clinic functioning as sequential observational phases for comparison. We also evaluate screening and treatment costs and implementation barriers and facilitators. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The study examines innovative, technology-facilitated strategies for improving assessment and treatment in primary care. Results may help to inform substance use, mental health, and HIV services. TRIAL REGISTRATION/BACKGROUND:NCT03217058.

OBJECTIVE:To measure the association of China's universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics. DESIGN:National, descriptive before-and-after comparative study. SETTING:Every county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China. PARTICIPANTS:Births included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Monthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries. RESULTS:The study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (-3.5 to -2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%. CONCLUSIONS:Since its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

Changing physician behaviors is difficult. Electronic health record (EHR) clinical decision support (CDS) offers an opportunity to promote guideline adherence. Behavioral economics (BE) has shown success as an approach to supporting evidence-based decision-making with little additional cognitive burden. We applied a user-centered approach to incorporate BE "nudges" into a CDS module in two "vanguard" sites utilizing: (1) semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 8); (2) a design thinking workshop; and (3) semi-structured group interviews with clinicians. In the 133 day development phase at two clinics, the navigator section fired 299 times for 27 unique clinicians. The inbasket refill alert fired 124 times for 22 clinicians. Fifteen prescriptions for metformin were written by 11 clinicians. Our user-centered approach yielded a BE-driven CDS module with relatively high utilization by clinicians. Next steps include the addition of two modules and continued tracking of utilization, and assessment of clinical impact of the module.

This study describes maternal and infant contributions to dyadic affective exchanges during the Still-Face Paradigm (SFP) in an understudied mostly low-income sample. One hundred eleven mothers and their 7-month-old infants were videotaped during the SFP to analyze how a social stressor affects mother-infant positive and negative affective exchanges during interaction. The SFP includes 3 episodes: baseline, maternal still-face, and reunion. Maternal and infant positive and negative affect were scored by masked reliable coders. Data were analyzed using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model to test the hypotheses that each partner's affectivity during the baseline episode would predict their own affectivity during the reunion episode (actor effects). We also expected that each partner's affectivity during the baseline episode would influence the other partner's affectivity during the reunion episodes (partner effects). After controlling for infant sex and maternal education, results provided evidence for actor effects for maternal and infant positive affect, and for partner effects for maternal baseline positive affect to infant positive affect during the reunion. One significant partner effect was observed for negative affect: Infant negativity during baseline predicted greater maternal negativity during reunion. Findings confirm that both mothers and infants contribute to dyadic affective processes during the SFP but specific findings vary depending on the affective valence in question. Clinical implications and future research are discussed.

Introduction: This study explored factors influencing patient access to medications for opioid use disorder (OUD), particularly for individuals eligible but historically suboptimal follow-up with in-house referrals to office-based opioid treatment (OBOT). Objectives: In-depth qualitative interviews among a mostly underserved sample of adults with OUD elicited: 1) knowledge and experiences across the OUD treatment cascade; and 2) more nuanced elements of patient-centered care, including shared decision making with providers, experiences in OBOT versus specialty addiction treatment, transitioning from methadone to buprenorphine or extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX), and voluntary discontinuation of medications for OUD. Methods: We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews between January and February of 2018 among adult inpatient detoxification program patients with OUD (n = 23). Preliminary analysis of interviews yielded key themes and ideas that were coded from a grounded theory approach. Results: Willingness to engage with OBOT was influenced by a complex array of practical considerations, including access to patient-centered care in OBOT settings, positive experiences with illicitly obtained buprenorphine, and differential experiences pertaining to OBOT versus specialty addiction treatment. Responses were generally favorable towards OBOT with buprenorphine, yet knowledge regarding extended-release naltrexone was limited. Respondents were often frustrated by clinicians when requesting to transition from methadone to buprenorphine or XR-NTX. Lastly, participants elucidated limited access to OBOT programs in underserved neighborhoods and suburban settings. Conclusion: Limited access to patient-centered care in OBOT with buprenorphine and extended-release naltrexone may exacerbate challenges to retention and/or reengagement with OUD care.

OBJECTIVE:With nearly 11 million people in the United States arrested in 2015, the need to identify antecedent risk factors driving criminal justice involvement (CJI) and possible mitigating factors is crucial. This study examines the relation between childhood trauma and CJI in adolescence and adulthood and assesses how this relation is moderated by mentoring during young adulthood. METHODS:The analysis included 3 waves of data-adolescents, young adults, and adults-collected from 1995 to 2008 from 12,288 adolescents who participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a nationally representative study of adolescents in grades 7 to 12. Logistic regression was used to examine how having a close mentor in adolescence moderated the relation between criminal justice involvement and 9 childhood traumatic events: (1) neglect, (2) emotional abuse, (3) physical abuse, (4) sexual abuse, (5) parental incarceration, (6) parental binge drinking, (7) witnessed violence, (8) threatened with violence, and (9) experienced violence. RESULTS:Cumulative exposure to childhood trauma was associated with CJI in adolescence (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] ranging from 2.24 to 25.98) and adulthood (AOR range, 1.82-6.69), and parental incarceration was consistently one of the, if not the, most strongly associated with each form of CJI; the strength of these associations was weakened for those who reported a close mentor compared to those who did not. CONCLUSIONS:This study advances the literature regarding trauma and CJI, highlighting the role of social support and mentorship as protective factors for youth who experience childhood trauma. Interventions aimed at protecting vulnerable children from the harms of trauma should be the next priority.

Background Previous studies have documented the cardiometabolic health benefits of plant-based diets; however, these studies were conducted in selected study populations that had narrow generalizability. Methods and Results We used data from a community-based cohort of middle-aged adults (n=12 168) in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study who were followed up from 1987 through 2016. Participants' diet was classified using 4 diet indexes. In the overall plant-based diet index and provegetarian diet index, higher intakes of all or selected plant foods received higher scores; in the healthy plant-based diet index, higher intakes of only the healthy plant foods received higher scores; in the less healthy plant-based diet index, higher intakes of only the less healthy plant foods received higher scores. In all indexes, higher intakes of animal foods received lower scores. Results from Cox proportional hazards models showed that participants in the highest versus lowest quintile for adherence to overall plant-based diet index or provegetarian diet had a 16%, 31% to 32%, and 18% to 25% lower risk of cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality, respectively, after adjusting for important confounders (all P<0.05 for trend). Higher adherence to a healthy plant-based diet index was associated with a 19% and 11% lower risk of cardiovascular disease mortality and all-cause mortality, respectively, but not incident cardiovascular disease (P<0.05 for trend). No associations were observed between the less healthy plant-based diet index and the outcomes. Conclusions Diets higher in plant foods and lower in animal foods were associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a general population.

RATIONALE/BACKGROUND:Racial phenotype shapes the ways in which others perceive and interact with children, with implications for their immediate and long-term well-being. Still, few empirical studies have examined these links in Latinx children. OBJECTIVE:The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between skin color, as a salient marker of racial phenotype, and the mental health of young, Latinx children. METHODS:The present study was conducted in the United States between 2010 and 2013. Participants (N = 684) were Mexican- and Dominican origin 4 - 5-year olds who were rated based on their skin tone as "moderately dark" (54%), "honorary white" (35%), and "collective black" (11%). Regression models were used to estimate the association between skin color (measured at age 4-5) and internalizing and externalizing behaviors (measured at the end of first grade). RESULTS:By the end of first grade, "collective black" children had higher ratings on several indicators of internalizing and externalizing problems compared to their "honorary white" peers; this pattern was particularly pronounced for girls. Moreover, the association between externalizing behaviors at baseline and first grade was stronger among children with dark, relative to light, skin color. CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest that darker-skinned Latinx children may be at increased risk for more severe and/or more persistent mental health problems, perhaps due to discrimination based on their skin color. In order to develop intervention strategies to prevent mental health problems in the Latinx child population, future research is needed to examine how racism may manifest, particularly in teacher-student and parent-child interactions, in the everyday experiences of young children.