Faculty Bibliography

Traditional methods of health surveillance often under-represent racial and ethnic minorities. Our objective was to use geospatial analysis and emergency claims data to estimate local chronic disease prevalence separately for specific racial and ethnic groups. We also performed a regression analysis to identify associations between median household income and local disease prevalence among Black, Hispanic, Asian, and White adults in New York City. The study population included individuals who visited an emergency department at least once from 2009 to 2013. Our main outcomes were geospatial estimates of diabetes, hypertension, and asthma prevalence by Census tract as stratified by race and ethnicity. Using emergency claims data, we identified 4.9 million unique New York City adults with 28.5% of identifying as Black, 25.2% Hispanic, and 6.1% Asian. Age-adjusted disease prevalence was highest among Black and Hispanic adults for diabetes (13.4 and 13.1%), hypertension (28.7 and 24.1%), and asthma (9.9 and 10.1%). Correlation between disease prevalence maps demonstrated moderate overlap between Black and Hispanic adults for diabetes (0.49), hypertension (0.57), and asthma (0.58). In our regression analysis, we found that the association between low income and high disease prevalence was strongest for Hispanic adults, whereas increases in income had more modest reductions in disease prevalence for Black adults, especially for diabetes. Our geographically detailed maps of disease prevalence generate actionable evidence that can help direct health interventions to those communities with the highest health disparities. Using these novel geographic approaches, we reveal the underlying epidemiology of chronic disease for a racially and culturally diverse population.

OBJECTIVE:Recent mechanistic and epidemiological evidence implicates air pollution as a potential risk factor for diabetes; however, mortality risks have not been evaluated in a large US cohort assessing exposures to multiple pollutants with detailed consideration of personal risk factors for diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS/METHODS:. Associations between the air pollutants and the risk of diabetes mortality (N = 3598) were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for both individual-level and census-level contextual covariates. RESULTS:(HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01-1.18 per 10 ppb). The strength of the relationship was robust to alternate exposure assessments and model specifications. We also observed significant effect modification, with elevated mortality risks observed among those with higher BMI and lower levels of fruit consumption. CONCLUSIONS:, is related to increased risk of diabetes mortality in the U.S, with attenuation of adverse effects by lower BMI and higher fruit consumption, suggesting that air pollution is involved in the etiology and/or control of diabetes.

BACKGROUND:Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments. METHODS:We used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker's willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker's willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations. RESULTS:A new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS:Value of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.

Diets with high inflammatory potential are suspected to increase risk for pancreatic cancer (PC). Using pooled analyses, we examined whether this association applies to populations from different geographic regions and population subgroups with varying risks for PC, including variation in ABO blood type. Data from six case-control studies (cases, n=2,414; controls, n=4,528) in the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4) were analyzed, followed by replication in five nested case-control studies (cases, n=1,268; controls, n=4,215) from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan). Two polymorphisms in the ABO locus (rs505922 and rs8176746) were used to infer participants' blood types. Dietary questionnaire-derived nutrient/food intake was used to compute energy-adjusted dietary inflammatory index (DII®) scores to assess inflammatory potential of diet. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. Higher E-DII scores, reflecting greater inflammatory potential of diet, were associated with increased PC risk in PanC4 (ORQ5 vs. Q1=2.20, 95% CI=1.85-2.61, Ptrend<0.0001; ORcontinuous=1.20, 95% CI=1.17-1.24), and PanScan (ORQ5 vs. Q1=1.23, 95% CI=0.92-1.66, Ptrend=0.008; ORcontinuous=1.09, 95% CI=1.02-1.15). As expected, genotype-derived non-O blood type was associated with increased PC risk in both the PanC4 and PanScan studies. Stratified analyses of associations between E-DII quintiles and PC by genotype-derived ABO blood type did not show interaction by blood type (Pinteraction=0.10 in PanC4 and Pinteraction=0.13 in PanScan). The results show that consuming a pro-inflammatory diet and carrying non-O blood type are each individually, but not interactively, associated with increased PC risk.

Cigarette smoking alters the oral microbiome; however, the effect of alternative tobacco products remains unclear. Middle Eastern tobacco products like dokha and shisha, are becoming globally widespread. We tested for the first time in a Middle Eastern population the hypothesis that different tobacco products impact the oral microbiome. The oral microbiome of 330 subjects from the United Arab Emirates Healthy Future Study was assessed by amplifying the bacterial 16S rRNA gene from mouthwash samples. Tobacco consumption was assessed using a structured questionnaire and further validated by urine cotinine levels. Oral microbiome overall structure and specific taxon abundances were compared, using PERMANOVA and DESeq analyses respectively. Our results show that overall microbial composition differs between smokers and nonsmokers (p = 0.0001). Use of cigarettes (p = 0.001) and dokha (p = 0.042) were associated with overall microbiome structure, while shisha use was not (p = 0.62). The abundance of multiple genera were significantly altered (enriched/depleted) in cigarette smokers; however, only Actinobacillus, Porphyromonas, Lautropia and Bifidobacterium abundances were significantly changed in dokha users whereas no genera were significantly altered in shisha smokers. For the first time, we show that smoking dokha is associated to oral microbiome dysbiosis, suggesting that it could have similar effects as smoking cigarettes on oral health.

A growing number of loci within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region have been implicated in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) etiology. Here, we test a complementary hypothesis of "heterozygote advantage" regarding the role of HLA and NHL, whereby HLA diversity is beneficial and homozygous HLA loci are associated with increased disease risk. HLA alleles at class I and II loci were imputed from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using SNP2HLA for: 3,617 diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL), 2,686 follicular lymphomas (FL), 2,878 chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphomas (CLL/SLL), 741 marginal zone lymphomas (MZL), and 8,753 controls of European descent. Both DLBCL and MZL risk were elevated with homozygosity at class I HLA-B and -C loci (OR DLBCL=1.31, 95% CI=1.06-1.60; OR MZL=1.45, 95% CI=1.12-1.89) and class II HLA-DRB1 locus (OR DLBCL=2.10, 95% CI=1.24-3.55; OR MZL= 2.10, 95% CI=0.99-4.45). Increased FL risk was observed with the overall increase in number of homozygous HLA class II loci (p-trend<0.0001, FDR=0.0005). These results support a role for HLA zygosity in NHL etiology and suggests that distinct immune pathways may underly the etiology of the different NHL subtypes.

BACKGROUND:Hypertriglyceridemia is associated with increased remnant-like particle cholesterol (RLP-C) and triglycerides in low-density lipoprotein (LDL-TG). Recent studies have focused on atherogenicity of RLP-C, with few data on LDL-TG. OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to examine associations of RLP-C and LDL-TG with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and genetic variants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study. METHODS:Fasting plasma RLP-C and LDL-TG levels were measured in 9,334 men and women without prevalent CVD. Participants were followed for incident CVD events (coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke) for up to 16 years. Associations between LDL-TG and RLP-C levels and genetic variants were assessed by whole-exome sequencing using single-variant analysis for common variants and gene-based burden tests for rare variants; both an unbiased and a candidate gene approach were explored. RESULTS:). CONCLUSIONS:RLP-C and LDL-TG levels were predictive of CVD and associated with APOE variants. LDL-TG may represent a marker of dysfunctional remnant lipoprotein metabolism associated with increased CVD risk. Further research is needed to determine whether LDL-TG plays a causal role in CVD and may be a target for therapy.

BACKGROUND:The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS2°P), a 0-to-9-point system based on the presence/absence of 9 clinical factors, was developed to classify the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (a composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke) among patients with a recent myocardial infarction. Its performance has not been examined internationally outside of a clinical trial setting. METHODS AND RESULTS:We evaluated the performance of TRS2°P for predicting MACE in 53 599 patients with recent myocardial infarction in 5 international cohorts from New Zealand, South Korea, Sweden, and the United States participating in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium. Overall, there were 19 444 cases of MACE across 5 cohorts over a mean follow-up of 5 years, and the overall MACE rate ranged from 5.0 to 18.4 (per 100 person-years). The TRS2°P showed modest calibration (Brier score ranged from 0.144 to 0.173) and discrimination (C-statistics >0.61 in all studies except 1 from Korea with 0.55) across cohorts relative to its original Brier score of 0.098 and C-statistic of 0.67 in the derived data set. Although there was some heterogeneity across cohorts, the 9 predictors in the TRS2°P were generally associated with higher MACE risk, with strongest associations observed (meta-analyzed adjusted hazard ratio 1.6-1.7) for history of heart failure, age ≥75 years, and prior stroke, followed by peripheral artery disease, kidney dysfunction, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension (hazard ratio 1.3-1.4). Prior coronary bypass graft surgery and smoking did not reach statistical significance (hazard ratio ≈1.1). CONCLUSIONS:TRS2°P, a simple scoring system with 9 routine clinical factors, was modestly predictive of secondary events when applied in patients with recent myocardial infarction from diverse clinical and geographic settings.