Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular risk models have been developed primarily for incident events. Well-performing models are lacking to predict secondary cardiovascular events among people with a history of coronary heart disease, stroke, or heart failure who also have chronic kidney disease (CKD). We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk score for cardiovascular events in individuals with CKD and a history of cardiovascular disease. METHODS:We measured 4638 plasma proteins among 1067 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) and 536 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Cohort (ARIC). All had non-dialysis-dependent CKD and coronary heart disease, heart failure, or stroke at study baseline. A proteomic risk model for secondary cardiovascular events was derived by elastic net regression in CRIC, validated in ARIC, and compared to clinical models. Biologic mechanisms of secondary events were characterized through proteomic pathway analysis. RESULTS:A 16-protein risk model was superior to the Framingham risk score for secondary events, including a modified score that included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In CRIC, the annualized area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) within 1 to 5 years ranged between 0.77 and 0.80 for the protein model and 0.57 and 0.72 for the clinical models. These findings were replicated in the ARIC validation cohort. Biologic pathway analysis identified pathways and proteins for cardiac remodeling and fibrosis, vascular disease, and thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS:The proteomic risk model for secondary cardiovascular events outperformed clinical models based on traditional risk factors and eGFR.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Orthostatic hypertension is an emerging risk factor for adverse events. Recent consensus statements combine an increase in blood pressure upon standing with standing hypertension, but whether these 2 components have similar risk associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unknown. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:The ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) measured supine and standing blood pressure during visit 1 (1987-1989). We defined systolic orthostatic increase (a rise in systolic blood pressure [SBP] ≥20 mm Hg, standing minus supine blood pressure) and elevated standing SBP (standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg) to examine the new consensus statement definition (rise in SBP ≥20 mm Hg and standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg). We used Cox regression to examine associations with incident coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, fatal coronary heart disease, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Of 11 369 participants (56% female; 25% Black adults; mean age, 54 years) without CVD at baseline, 1.8% had systolic orthostatic increases, 20.1% had standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg, and 1.3% had systolic orthostatic increases with standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg. During up to 30 years of follow-up, orthostatic increases were not significantly associated with any of the adverse outcomes of interest, while standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg was significantly associated with all end points. In joint models comparing systolic orthostatic increases and standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg, standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD, and associations differed significantly from systolic orthostatic increases. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Unlike systolic orthostatic increases, standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg was strongly associated with CVD outcomes and death. These differences in CVD risk raise important concerns about combining systolic orthostatic increases and standing SBP ≥140 mm Hg in a consensus definition for orthostatic hypertension.

OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to evaluate potential sources of heterogeneity in the effect of calorie labeling on fast-food purchases among restaurants located in areas with different neighborhood characteristics. METHODS:In a quasi-experimental design, using transaction data from 2329 Taco Bell restaurants across the United States between 2008 and 2014, we estimated the relationships of census tract-level income, racial and ethnic composition, and urbanicity with the impacts of calorie labeling on calories purchased per transaction. RESULTS:Calorie labeling led to small, absolute reductions in calories purchased across all population subgroups, ranging between -9.3 calories (95% CI: -18.7 to 0.0) and -37.6 calories (95% CI: -41.6 to -33.7) 2 years after labeling implementation. We observed the largest difference in the effect of calorie labeling between restaurants located in rural compared with those located in high-density urban census tracts 2 years after implementation, with the effect of calorie labeling being three times larger in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS:Fast-food calorie labeling led to small reductions in calories purchased across all population subgroups except for rural census tracts, with some subgroups experiencing a greater benefit.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Physical activity fragmentation represents the frequency of transitioning from an active to sedentary state. The prognostic information of physical activity fragmentation is unclear in Hispanics/Latinos. This study examined the association of PA fragmentation with all-cause mortality in Hispanic/Latino adults. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We investigated 11,992 participants from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) (18-74 yr; 52.2% women), from four United States urban communities (Bronx, New York; Chicago, Illinois; Miami, Florida; San Diego, California), that wore an accelerometer for one week. Physical activity fragmentation was calculated using the active-to-sedentary transition probability (ASTP) as the reciprocal of the average active bout duration. Daily total log-transformed activity count (TLAC) was used as a measure of total physical activity. The residual of ASTP regressed on TLAC (TLAC-adjusted ASTP) was explored to investigate the association of ASTP independent of total physical activity. Deaths were identified from annual follow-up interviews, obituary searches, or matches to the National Death Index through December 31, 2021. Cox regression models were fitted according to physical activity fragmentation. FINDINGS/UNASSIGNED:There were 745 deaths (6.2%) over a mean follow-up of 11.2 (SD 2.2) years. The highest compared to the lowest tertile of ASTP showed a HR of 1.45 (95% CI 1.10-1.92) of all-cause mortality after accounting for confounders. The mortality risk also increased for each 0.10-unit increase of ASTP, as a continuous variable, by 22% (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.07-1.39). The results were similar considering TLAC-adjusted ASTP. INTERPRETATION/UNASSIGNED:Among Hispanic/Latino adults, more fragmented physical activity was associated with elevated all-cause mortality, independent of total physical activity volume. FUNDING/UNASSIGNED:HCHS/SOL was supported by the National Institutes of Health.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-Like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) are recommended in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) for glycaemic control and for people with high cardiovascular risk. However, current guidelines do not specifically address the role of initial early combination therapy with SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA or dual gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)/GLP-1 RA, but rather sequential initiation with either in T2D. This review synthesizes the available evidence on the use of SGLT2i and GLP-1-based therapies for T2D and provides a rationale for their combination. The combination of SGLT2i with GLP-1-based therapies addresses complementary pathophysiological mechanisms and enhances efficacy in achieving target haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) levels. SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA also have been shown to prevent complications of T2D. While both classes reduce adverse cardiorenal events, SGLT2i has a predominant effect on prevention of kidney dysfunction and heart failure, whereas GLP-1 RA has a more marked effect on the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Both drug classes have favourable safety profiles. Finally, weight loss with combination therapy may have disease-modifying effects that may reverse T2D progression. We propose that the combination of SGLT2i with GLP-1 RA or dual GIP/GLP-1 RA should be considered for most patients with T2D who do not have contraindications.

In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued the Intersectoral Global Action Plan for Epilepsy and Other Neurological Disorders for 2022 to 2031, emphasizing important connections between brain health, population well-being, and economic growth. A year later, the WHO followed up with strategic guidelines aimed at enhancing brain health outcomes in developing countries. However, critical gaps remain. Our policy forum paper advocates for policies that target brain health across all stages of life, starting with measures to reduce the consumption of alcohol, sugar, and tobacco. Additionally, we propose the integration of school meal programs and social pension schemes as essential lifespan policies to safeguard brain health. To support these policies, developing countries must implement key macroeconomic reforms. These include revising international trade agreements, strengthening tax systems, curbing illicit financial flows, eliminating financial exclusions, and expanding social welfare systems. Such reforms are critical for creating an environment that supports long-term brain health initiatives. HIGHLIGHTS: The are critical gaps in the WHO policy framework for brain health. We advocate policies that target brain health across all stages of life, starting with measures to reduce alcohol, sugar, and tobacco consumption. Additionally, we propose integrating school meal programs and social pension schemes as essential lifespan policies to safeguard brain health. To support these policies, developing countries must implement key macroeconomic reforms. By adopting these measures, developing countries can lead the charge in advancing the 21st-century brain health agenda, fostering both societal well-being and sustainable economic development.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE:Innovations have improved outcomes in advanced prostate cancer (PC). Nonetheless, we continue to lack high-level evidence on a variety of topics that greatly impact daily practice. The 2024 Advanced Prostate Cancer Consensus Conference (APCCC) surveyed experts on key questions in clinical management in order to supplement evidence-based guidelines. Here we present voting results for questions from APCCC 2024. METHODS:Before the conference, a panel of 120 international PC experts used a modified Delphi process to develop 183 multiple-choice consensus questions on eight different topics. Before the conference, these questions were administered via a web-based survey to the voting panel members ("panellists"). KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS/UNASSIGNED:Consensus was a priori defined as ≥75% agreement, with strong consensus defined as ≥90% agreement. The voting results show varying degrees of consensus, as discussed in this article and detailed in the Supplementary material. These findings do not include a formal literature review or meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:The voting results can help physicians and patients navigate controversial areas of clinical management for which high-level evidence is scant or conflicting. The findings can also help funders and policymakers in prioritising areas for future research. Diagnostic and treatment decisions should always be individualised on the basis of patient and cancer characteristics, and should incorporate current and emerging clinical evidence, guidelines, and logistic and economic factors. Enrolment in clinical trials is always strongly encouraged. Importantly, APCCC 2024 once again identified important gaps (areas of nonconsensus) that merit evaluation in specifically designed trials.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVE:39-47 mmol/mol [5.7-6.4%] or fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/l) is associated with elevated risks of microvascular and macrovascular complications. It is unknown to what extent these risks in prediabetes remain after accounting for progression to diabetes. METHODS:In 10,310 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (aged 46-70 years, ~55% women, ~20% Black adults) without diabetes at baseline (1990-1992), we used Cox regression to characterise age- and sex-adjusted associations of prediabetes with ~30 year incidence of complications (composite and separately), including atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), heart failure, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality before and after accounting for intervening incidence of diabetes, modelled as a time-varying variable. We calculated the excess risk of complications in prediabetes remaining after accounting for progression to diabetes. RESULTS:Of the 60% of adults with prediabetes at baseline, ~30% progressed to diabetes (median time to diabetes, 7 years). Over the maximum follow-up of ~30 years, there were 7069 events (1937 ASCVD, 2109 heart failure, 3288 CKD and 4785 deaths). Prediabetes was modestly associated with risk of any complication (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.15, 1.27]) vs normoglycaemia. This association remained significant after accounting for progression to diabetes (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.12, 1.24]) with 85% (95% CI 75, 94%) of the excess risk of any complication in prediabetes remaining. Results were similar for the individual complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:Progression to diabetes explained less than one-quarter of the risks of clinical outcomes associated with prediabetes. Prediabetes contributes to the risk of clinical outcomes even without progression to diabetes.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Children from racial and ethnic minority groups are at greater risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but it is unclear whether they have increased risk for post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC). Our objectives were to assess whether the risk of respiratory and neurologic PASC differs by race/ethnicity and social drivers of health. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals <21 years seeking care at 24 health systems across the U.S, using electronic health record (EHR) data. Our cohort included those with a positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular, serology or antigen test, or with a COVID-19, multisystem inflammatory disease in children, or PASC diagnosis from February 29, 2020 to August 1, 2022. We identified children/youth with at least 2 codes associated with respiratory and neurologic PASC. We measured associations between sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and respiratory and neurologic PASC using odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals estimated from multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for other sociodemographic characteristics, social vulnerability index or area deprivation index, time period of cohort entry, presence and complexity of chronic respiratory (respectively, neurologic) condition and healthcare utilization. FINDINGS/UNASSIGNED:Among 771,725 children in the cohort, 203,365 (26.3%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among children with documented infection, 3217 children had respiratory PASC and 2009 children/youth had neurologic PASC. In logistic regression models, children <5 years (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.62-1.97), and of Hispanic White descent (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.35) had higher odds of having respiratory PASC. Children/youth living in regions with higher area deprivation indices (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10-1.420 for 60-79th percentile) and with chronic complex respiratory conditions (OR 3.28, 95% CI 2.91-3.70) also had higher odds of respiratory PASC. In contrast, older (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.40-1.77 for those aged 12-17 years), non-Hispanic White individuals and those with chronic pre-existing neurologic conditions (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.78-2.35) were more likely to have a neurologic PASC diagnosis. INTERPRETATION/UNASSIGNED:Racial and ethnic differences in healthcare utilization for neurologic and respiratory PASC may reflect social drivers of health and inequities in access to care. FUNDING/UNASSIGNED:National Institutes of Health.