Faculty Bibliography

Case-cohort (Prentice, 1986) and nested case-control (Thomas, 1977) designs have been widely used as a cost-effective alternative to the full-cohort design. In this article, we propose an efficient likelihood-based estimation method for the accelerated failure time model under case-cohort and nested case-control designs. An EM algorithm is developed to maximize the likelihood function and a kernel smoothing technique is adopted to facilitate the estimation in the M-step of the EM algorithm. We show that the proposed estimators for the regression coefficients are consistent and asymptotically normal. The asymptotic variance of the estimators can be consistently estimated using an EM-aided numerical differentiation method. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimators and an application to a Wilms tumor data set is also given to illustrate the methodology.

The surgical robot, a costly technology for treatment of prostate cancer with equivocal marginal benefit, rapidly diffused into clinical practice. We sought to evaluate the role of teaching in the early adoption phase of the surgical robot. Teaching hospitals were the primary early adopters: data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project showed that surgical robots were acquired by 45.5% of major teaching, 18.0% of minor teaching and 8.0% of non-teaching hospitals during the early adoption phase. However, teaching hospital faculty produced little comparative effectiveness research: By 2008, only 24 published studies compared robotic prostatectomy outcomes to those of conventional techniques. Just ten of these studies (41.7%) were more than minimally powered, and only six (25%) involved cross-institutional collaborations. In adopting the surgical robot, teaching hospitals fulfilled their mission to innovate, but failed to generate corresponding scientific evidence.

The King-Devick (K-D) test is a 1 to 2 minute, rapid number naming test, often used to assist with detection of concussion, but also has clinical utility in other neurological conditions (eg, Parkinson disease). The K-D involves saccadic eye and other eye movements, and abnormalities thereof may be an early indicator of Alzheimer disease (AD)-associated cognitive impairment. No study has tested the utility of the K-D in AD and we sought to do so. The sample included 206 [135 controls, 39 mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 32 AD dementia] consecutive subjects from the Boston University Alzheimer's Disease Center registry undergoing their initial annual evaluation between March 2013 and July 2015. The K-D was administered during this period. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves generated from logistic regression models revealed the K-D test distinguished controls from subjects with cognitive impairment (MCI and AD dementia) [area under the curve (AUC)=0.72], MCI (AUC=0.71) and AD dementia (AUC=0.74). K-D time scores between 48 and 52 seconds were associated with high sensitivity (>90.0%) and negative predictive values (>85.0%) for each diagnostic group. The K-D correlated strongly with validated attention, processing speed, and visual scanning tests. The K-D test may be a rapid and simple effective screening tool to detect cognitive impairment associated with AD.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of sleep duration and awakening frequency with cognitive outcomes in young children. METHODS: Mothers of 2,800 children from the Generation R cohort reported sleep duration and awakenings at children's age 24 months. At age 6 years, validated Dutch measures were used to assess children's nonverbal intelligence and language comprehension. RESULTS: We found a nonlinear association of total sleep time at 24 months with nonverbal intelligence (p = 0.03) and language comprehension (p = 0.04) at 6 years. Toddlers sleeping within the recommended 11-14 hr had more favorable cognitive development compared with both extremes. Frequent awakenings were negatively associated with nonverbal intelligence, but not with verbal comprehension. CONCLUSION: Sleep duration in toddlerhood has an inverted-U-shaped relation with childhood cognitive measures. Frequent awakenings are associated with lower nonverbal intelligence. Given the marked decline in sleep duration and awakenings in toddlerhood, developmental changes of sleep patterns might be important for cognitive development.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) have been linked to negative health risks, but exposure among professional taxi drivers is understudied. This pilot study measured drivers' knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs (KAB) about air pollution compared with direct measures of exposures. Roadside and in-vehicle levels of PM2.5 and BC were continuously measured over a single shift on each subject, and exposures compared with central site monitoring. One hundred drivers completed an air pollution KAB questionnaire, and seven taxicabs participated in preliminary in-cab air sampling. Taxicab PM2.5 and BC concentrations were elevated compared with nearby central monitoring. Average PM2.5 concentrations per 15-min interval were 4-49 mug/m3. BC levels were also elevated; reaching>10 mug/m3. Fifty-six of the 100 drivers surveyed believed they were more exposed than non-drivers; 81 believed air pollution causes health problems. Air pollution exposures recorded suggest that driver exposures would likely exceed EPA recommendations if experienced for 24 h. Surveys indicated that driver awareness of this was limited. Future studies should focus on reducing exposures and increasing awareness among taxi drivers.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 11 May 2016; doi:10.1038/jes.2016.23.

Numerous epidemiological accounts suggest that waterpipe smoking (aka hookah, shisha, narghile) has become a global phenomenon, especially among youth. The alarming spread of waterpipe and accumulating evidence of its addictive and harmful effects represent a new threat in the global fight to limit tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. In response to waterpipe's alarming trends, major public health and tobacco control organisations have started or are considering systematic collection of data about waterpipe smoking to monitor its trends and assess its harmful effects in different societies. Such plans require coordination and agreement on epidemiological measurement tools that reflect the uniqueness of this tobacco use method, and at the same time allow comparison of waterpipe trends across time and place, and with other tobacco use methods. We started a decade ago our work to develop standardised measures and definitions for the assessment of waterpipe smoking in epidemiological studies. In this communication, we try to expand and update these assessment tools in light of our increased knowledge and understanding of waterpipe use patterns, its context and marketing, as well as the need for evidence-guided policies and regulations to curb its spread. We have assembled for this purpose a group of leading waterpipe researchers worldwide, and worked through an iterative process to develop the suggested instruments and definitions based on what we know currently about the waterpipe epidemic. While the suggested measures are by no means comprehensive, we hope that they can provide the building blocks for standard and comparable surveillance of waterpipe smoking globally.

Theory suggests that early experiences may calibrate the "threshold activity" of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis in childhood. Particularly challenging or particularly supportive environments are posited to manifest in heightened physiological sensitivity to context. Using longitudinal data from the Family Life Project (N = 1,292), we tested whether links between maternal sensitivity and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis activity aligned with these predictions. Specifically, we tested whether the magnitude of the within-person relation between maternal sensitivity and children's cortisol levels, a proxy for physiological sensitivity to context, was especially pronounced for children who typically experienced particularly low or high levels of maternal sensitivity over time. Our results were consistent with these hypotheses. Between children, lower levels of mean maternal sensitivity (7-24 months) were associated with higher mean cortisol levels across this period (measured as a basal sample collected at each visit). However, the magnitude and direction of the within-person relation was contingent on children's average levels of maternal sensitivity over time. Increases in maternal sensitivity were associated with contemporaneous cortisol decreases for children with typically low-sensitive mothers, whereas sensitivity increases were associated with cortisol increases for children with typically high-sensitive mothers. No within-child effects were evident at moderate levels of maternal sensitivity.

OBJECTIVE: To measure variation in payment rates under Medicare's Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS) and identify the main payment adjustments that drive variation. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Medicare cost reports for all Medicare-certified hospitals, 1987-2013, and Dartmouth Atlas geographic files. STUDY DESIGN: We measure the Medicare payment rate as a hospital's total acute inpatient Medicare Part A payment, divided by the standard IPPS payment for its geographic area. We assess variation using several measures, both within local markets and nationally. We perform a factor decomposition to identify the share of variation attributable to specific adjustments. We also describe the characteristics of hospitals receiving different payment rates and evaluate changes in the magnitude of the main adjustments over time. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data downloaded from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Dartmouth Atlas. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2013, Medicare paid for acute inpatient discharges at a rate 31 percent above the IPPS base. For the top 10 percent of discharges, the mean rate was double the IPPS base. Variations were driven by adjustments for medical education and care to low-income populations. The magnitude of variation has increased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustments are a large and growing share of Medicare hospital payments, and they create significant variation in payment rates.

Since 2000, an increase in hepatitis C virus infection among HIV-infected (HIV+) men who have sex with men has been observed. Evidence points to blood exposure during sex as the medium of hepatitis C virus transmission. Hepatitis C virus prevalence among HIV + MSM overall and in relation to injection drug use is poorly characterized. In this study, a systematic review and meta-analysis examining global hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence and estimating active hepatitis C virus prevalence among HIV + MSM were conducted; 42 reports provided anti-hepatitis C virus prevalence data among HIV + MSM. Pooled prevalence produced an overall anti-hepatitis C virus prevalence among HIV + MSM of 8.1%; active HCV prevalence estimate was 5.3%-7.3%. Anti-hepatitis C virus prevalence among injection drug use and non-injection drug use HIV + MSM was 40.0% and 6.7%, respectively. Among HIV + MSM, hepatitis C virus prevalence increased significantly over time among the overall and non-injection drug use groups, and decreased significantly among injection drug use HIV + MSM. We identified a moderate prevalence of hepatitis C virus among all HIV + MSM and among non-injection drug use HIV + MSM; for both, prevalence was observed to be increasing slightly. Pooled prevalence of hepatitis C virus among HIV + MSM was higher than that observed in the 1945-1965 US birth cohort. The modest but rising hepatitis C virus prevalence among HIV + MSM suggests an opportunity to control HCV among HIV + MSM; this combined with data demonstrating a rising hepatitis C virus incidence highlights the temporal urgency to do so.

Substantial evidence has established that individual differences in executive function (EF) in early childhood are uniquely predictive of children's academic readiness at school entry. The current study tested whether growth trajectories of EF across the early childhood period could be used to identify a subset of children who were at pronounced risk for academic impairment in kindergarten. Using data that were collected at the age 3, 4, and 5 home assessments in the Family Life Project (N = 1,120), growth mixture models were used to identify 9% of children who exhibited impaired EF performance (i.e., persistently low levels of EF that did not show expected improvements across time). Compared to children who exhibited typical trajectories of EF, the delayed group exhibited substantial impairments in multiple indicators of academic readiness in kindergarten (Cohen's ds = 0.9-2.7; odds ratios = 9.8-23.8). Although reduced in magnitude following control for a range of socioeconomic and cognitive (general intelligence screener, receptive vocabulary) covariates, moderate-sized group differences remained (Cohen's ds = 0.2-2.4; odds ratios = 3.9-5.4). Results are discussed with respect to the use of repeated measures of EF as a method of early identification, as well as the resulting translational implications of doing so.