Faculty Bibliography

eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).

BACKGROUND:The optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment goal is in question, with SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) suggesting benefit for 120 mm Hg. However, achieving an SBP this low may reduce diastolic blood pressure (DBP) to levels that could compromise myocardial perfusion. OBJECTIVES:This study sought to examine the independent association of DBP with myocardial damage (using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T [hs-cTnT]) and with coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or death over 21 years. METHODS:The authors studied 11,565 adults from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) cohort, analyzing DBP and hs-cTnT associations as well as prospective associations between DBP and events. RESULTS:Mean baseline age was 57 years, 57% of patients were female, and 25% were black. Compared with persons who had DBP between 80 to 89 mm Hg at baseline (ARIC visit 2), the adjusted odds ratio of having hs-cTnT ≥14 ng/l at that visit was 2.2 and 1.5 in those with DBP <60 mm Hg and 60 to 69 mm Hg, respectively. Low DBP at baseline was also independently associated with progressive myocardial damage on the basis of estimated annual change in hs-cTnT over the 6 years between ARIC visits 2 and 4. In addition, compared with a DBP of 80 to 89 mm Hg, a DBP <60 mm Hg was associated with incident CHD and mortality, but not with stroke. The DBP and incident CHD association was strongest with baseline hs-cTnT ≥14 ng/l (p value for interaction <0.001). Associations of low DBP with prevalent hs-cTnT and incident CHD were most pronounced among patients with baseline SBP ≥120 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS:Particularly among adults with an SBP ≥120 mm Hg, and thus elevated pulse pressure, low DBP was associated with subclinical myocardial damage and CHD events. When titrating treatment to SBP <140 mm Hg, it may be prudent to ensure that DBP levels do not fall below 70 mm Hg, and particularly not below 60 mm Hg.

Small molecules are extensively metabolized and cleared by the kidney. Changes in serum metabolite concentrations may result from impaired kidney function and can be used to estimate filtration (e.g., the established marker creatinine) or may precede and potentially contribute to CKD development. Here, we applied a nontargeted metabolomics approach using gas and liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry to quantify 493 small molecules in human serum. The associations of these molecules with GFR estimated on the basis of creatinine (eGFRcr) and cystatin C levels were assessed in ≤1735 participants in the KORA F4 study, followed by replication in 1164 individuals in the TwinsUK registry. After correction for multiple testing, 54 replicated metabolites significantly associated with eGFRcr, and six of these showed pairwise correlation (r≥0.50) with established kidney function measures: C-mannosyltryptophan, pseudouridine, N-acetylalanine, erythronate, myo-inositol, and N-acetylcarnosine. Higher C-mannosyltryptophan, pseudouridine, and O-sulfo-L-tyrosine concentrations associated with incident CKD (eGFRcr <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) in the KORA F4 study. In contrast with serum creatinine, C-mannosyltryptophan and pseudouridine concentrations showed little dependence on sex. Furthermore, correlation with measured GFR in 200 participants in the AASK study was 0.78 for both C-mannosyltryptophan and pseudouridine concentration, and highly significant associations of both metabolites with incident ESRD disappeared upon adjustment for measured GFR. Thus, these molecules may be alternative or complementary markers of kidney function. In conclusion, our study provides a comprehensive list of kidney function-associated metabolites and highlights potential novel filtration markers that may help to improve the estimation of GFR.

In diabetes, low concentrations of the biomarker 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) reflect hyperglycemic excursions over the prior 1-2 weeks. To the extent that hyperglycemic excursions are important in atherogenesis, 1,5-AG may provide independent information regarding cardiovascular risk. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated associations of 1,5-AG with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in a population-based setting. We measured 1,5-AG in 11,106 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study without cardiovascular disease at baseline (1990-1992) and examined prospective associations with coronary heart disease (n = 1,159 events), ischemic stroke (n = 637), heart failure (n = 1,553), and death (n = 3,120) over 20 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Compared with persons with 1,5-AG ≥6 μg/mL and no history of diabetes, persons with diabetes and 1,5-AG <6.0 μg/mL had an increased risk of coronary heart disease (HR 3.85, 95% CI 3.11-4.78), stroke (HR 3.48, 95% CI 2.66-4.55), heart failure (HR 3.50, 95% CI 2.93-4.17), and death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.11-2.83). There was a threshold effect, with little evidence for associations at "nondiabetic" concentrations of 1,5-AG (e.g., >10 μg/mL). Associations remained but were attenuated with additional adjustment for fasting glucose or HbA1c. These data add to the growing evidence for the prognostic value of 1,5-AG for long-term complications in the setting of diabetes.

BACKGROUND:The primary biomarkers used to define CKD are serum creatinine and albuminuria. These biomarkers have directed focus on the filtration and barrier functions of the kidney glomerulus even though albuminuria results from tubule dysfunction as well. Given that proximal tubules make up ∼90% of kidney cortical mass, we evaluated whether a sensitive and specific marker of proximal tubule injury, urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), is elevated in individuals with CKD or with risk factors for CKD. METHODS:We measured urinary KIM-1 in participants of five cohort studies from the USA and Sweden. Participants had a wide range of kidney function and were racially and ethnically diverse. Multivariable linear regression models were used to test the association of urinary KIM-1 with demographic, clinical and laboratory values. RESULTS:In pooled, multivariable-adjusted analyses, log-transformed, creatinine-normalized urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in those with lower eGFR {β = -0.03 per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.05 to -0.02]} and greater albuminuria [β = 0.16 per unit of log albumin:creatinine ratio (95% CI 0.15-0.17)]. Urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in current smokers, lower in blacks than nonblacks and lower in users versus nonusers of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. CONCLUSION:Proximal tubule injury appears to be an integral and measurable element of multiple stages of CKD.

AIMS:To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. METHODS:We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. RESULTS:Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%). CONCLUSIONS:These biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications.

Estimates of the numbers and rates of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) hospitalization are central to understanding health-care utilization and efforts to improve patient care. We comprehensively estimated the frequency, rate, and trends of ADHF hospitalization in the United States. Based on Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study surveillance adjudicating 12,450 eligible hospitalizations during 2005-2010, we developed prediction models for ADHF separately for 3 International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 428 discharge diagnosis groups: 428 primary, 428 nonprimary, or 428 absent. We applied the models to data from the National Inpatient Sample (11.5 million hospitalizations of persons aged ≥55 years with eligible ICD-9-CM codes), an all-payer, 20% probability sample of US community hospitals. The average estimated number of ADHF hospitalizations per year was 1.76 million (428 primary, 0.80 million; 428 nonprimary, 0.83 million; 428 absent, 0.13 million). During 1998-2004, the rate of ADHF hospitalization increased by 2.0%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8, 2.5) versus a 1.4%/year (95% CI: 0.8, 2.1) increase in code 428 primary hospitalizations (P < 0.001). In contrast, during 2005-2011, numbers of ADHF hospitalizations were stable (-0.5%/year; 95% CI: -1.4, 0.3), while the numbers of 428-primary hospitalizations decreased by -1.5%/year (95% CI: -2.2, -0.8) (P for contrast = 0.03). In conclusion, the estimated number of hospitalizations with ADHF is approximately 2 times higher than the number of hospitalizations with ICD-9-CM code 428 in the primary position. The trend increased more steeply prior to 2005 and was relatively flat after 2005.

The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has been engaged in public health research and practice in Washington County, Maryland, nearly since its inception a century ago. In 2005, the center housing this work was renamed the George W. Comstock Center for Public Health Research and Prevention to honor its pioneering leader. Principles that guided innovation and translation well in the past included: research synergies and opportunities for translation realized through longstanding connection with the community; integration of training with public health research; lifelong learning, mentorship, and teamwork; and efficiency through economies of scale. These principles are useful to consider as we face the challenges of improving the health of the population over the next 100 years.

Low physical activity levels are a public health concern. Few studies have assessed the concordance of physical activity change among spouses. We studied this concordance during a 6-year period (baseline: 1987-1989; follow-up: 1993-1995) in 3,261 spousal pairs from the US-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Linear regression was used to examine the association between change in individuals' sport/exercise and leisure physical activity indices (ranging from 1 (low) to 5 (high)) and change in his or her spouse's indices. The association between individual and spousal changes in meeting physical activity recommendations was assessed with logistic regression. Individual changes in the sport/exercise and leisure indices were positively associated with spousal changes. For every standard deviation increase in their wives' sport/exercise index, men's exercise index increased by 0.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.05, 0.12) standard deviation; for every standard deviation increase in their wives' leisure index, men's leisure index increased by 0.08 standard deviation. Results were similar for women. Individuals had higher odds of meeting physical activity recommendations if their spouse met recommendations at both visits or just follow-up. In conclusion, changes in an individual's physical activity are positively associated with changes in his or her spouse's physical activity. Physical activity promotion efforts should consider targeting couples.