Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Evaluation of candidates to serve as living kidney donors relies on screening for individual risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To support an empirical approach to donor selection, we developed a tool that simultaneously incorporates multiple health characteristics to estimate a person's probable long-term risk of ESRD if that person does not donate a kidney. METHODS:We used risk associations from a meta-analysis of seven general population cohorts, calibrated to the population-level incidence of ESRD and mortality in the United States, to project the estimated long-term incidence of ESRD among persons who do not donate a kidney, according to 10 demographic and health characteristics. We then compared 15-year projections with the observed risk among 52,998 living kidney donors in the United States. RESULTS:A total of 4,933,314 participants from seven cohorts were followed for a median of 4 to 16 years. For a 40-year-old person with health characteristics that were similar to those of age-matched kidney donors, the 15-year projections of the risk of ESRD in the absence of donation varied according to race and sex; the risk was 0.24% among black men, 0.15% among black women, 0.06% among white men, and 0.04% among white women. Risk projections were higher in the presence of a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, hypertension, current or former smoking, diabetes, and obesity. In the model-based lifetime projections, the risk of ESRD was highest among persons in the youngest age group, particularly among young blacks. The 15-year observed risks after donation among kidney donors in the United States were 3.5 to 5.3 times as high as the projected risks in the absence of donation. CONCLUSIONS:Multiple demographic and health characteristics may be used together to estimate the projected long-term risk of ESRD among living kidney-donor candidates and to inform acceptance criteria for kidney donors. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).

BACKGROUND:Disordered mineral metabolism is characteristic of decreased kidney function. However, the prospective associations between circulating levels of vitamin D binding protein, vitamin D, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have not been extensively evaluated in epidemiologic studies. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Nested case-control study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Middle-aged black and white men and women from 4 US communities. PREDICTORS/METHODS:Baseline levels of vitamin D binding protein, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25[OH]2D) were measured in blood samples collected at study visit 4 (1996-1998) of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study. OUTCOME/RESULTS:ESRD cases (n=184) were identified through hospitalization diagnostic codes from 1996 to 2008 and were frequency matched to controls (n=251) on categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, sex, and race. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between mineral metabolism biomarkers (vitamin D binding protein, 25(OH)D, and 1,25(OH)2D) and incident ESRD, adjusting for age, sex, race, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, education, specimen type, and serum levels of calcium, phosphate, and parathyroid hormone. RESULTS:Higher vitamin D binding protein levels were associated with elevated risk for incident ESRD (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.22-2.54; P=0.003). Higher free and bioavailable 25(OH)D levels were associated with reduced risk for incident ESRD (ORs of 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.92; P=0.02] and 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.91; P=0.02] for free and bioavailable 25[OH]D, respectively). There was no association between ESRD and overall levels of 25(OH)D (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.58-1.19; P=0.3) or 1,25(OH)2D (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.48-1.13; P=0.2). LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Lack of direct measurement of free and bioavailable vitamin D. CONCLUSIONS:In the general population, blood levels of vitamin D binding protein were positively associated and blood levels of free and bioavailable 25(OH)D were inversely associated with new-onset ESRD during follow-up.

BACKGROUND:Few trials of acute kidney injury (AKI) prevention after surgery have been conducted, and most observational studies focus on AKI following cardiac surgery. The frequency of, risk factors for, and outcomes after AKI following other types of major surgery have not been well characterized and may present additional opportunities for trials in AKI. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:3.6 million US veterans followed up from 2004 to 2011 for the receipt of major surgery (cardiac; general; ear, nose, and throat; thoracic; vascular; urologic; and orthopedic) and postoperative outcomes. FACTORS/METHODS:Demographics, health characteristics, and type of surgery. OUTCOMES/RESULTS:Postoperative AKI defined by the KDIGO creatinine criteria, postoperative length of stay, end-stage renal disease, and mortality. RESULTS:Postoperative AKI occurred in 11.8% of the 161,185 major surgery hospitalizations (stage 1, 76%; stage 2, 15%, stage 3 [without dialysis], 7%; and AKI requiring dialysis, 2%). Cardiac surgery had the highest postoperative AKI risk (relative risk [RR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.17-1.27), followed by general (reference), thoracic (RR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98), orthopedic (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.73), vascular (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71), urologic (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.69), and ear, nose, and throat (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37) surgery. Risk factors for postoperative AKI included older age, African American race, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and, for estimated glomerular filtration rate < 90mL/min/1.73m(2), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Participants with postoperative AKI had longer lengths of stay (15.8 vs 8.6 days) and higher rates of 30-day hospital readmission (21% vs 13%), 1-year end-stage renal disease (0.94% vs 0.05%), and mortality (19% vs 8%), with similar associations by type of surgery and more severe stage of AKI relating to poorer outcomes. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Urine output was not available to classify AKI; cohort included mostly men. CONCLUSIONS:AKI was common after major surgery, with similar risk factor and outcome associations across surgery type. These results can inform the design of clinical trials in postoperative AKI to the noncardiac surgery setting.

OBJECTIVE:We compared levels and associations of traditional (fasting glucose, HbA1c) and nontraditional (fructosamine, glycated albumin, and 1,5-anhydroglucitol [1,5-AG]) biomarkers of hyperglycemia with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and prevalent retinopathy in black and white adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:We included 10,373 participants without (8,096 white, 2,277 black) and 727 with diagnosed diabetes (425 white, 302 black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare hazards ratios of CVD and ESRD among blacks and whites from baseline (1990-1992) through 2012. We compared the odds ratios (from logistic regression) of retinopathy among blacks and whites. We tested for the interaction of each biomarker with race. RESULTS:Median values of biomarkers were higher among blacks versus whites (all P < 0.001). Relative risks for each biomarker with incident CVD and ESRD, and odds ratios for each biomarker with prevalent retinopathy, were similar by race (all P values for interaction by race >0.10). CONCLUSIONS:The prognostic value of HbA1c, fructosamine, glycated albumin, and 1,5-AG with incident CVD, incident ESRD, and prevalent retinopathy were similar by race. Our results support similar interpretation of HbA1c and nontraditional biomarkers of hyperglycemia among black and whites with respect to long-term complications.

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES/METHODS:Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. STUDY SELECTION/METHODS:Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS/METHODS:Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/METHODS:Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). RESULTS:During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P = .04 and P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are among the most commonly used drugs worldwide and have been linked to acute interstitial nephritis. Less is known about the association between PPI use and chronic kidney disease (CKD). OBJECTIVE:To quantify the association between PPI use and incident CKD in a population-based cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:In total, 10,482 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of at least 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were followed from a baseline visit between February 1, 1996, and January 30, 1999, to December 31, 2011. The data was analyzed from May 2015 to October 2015. The findings were replicated in an administrative cohort of 248,751 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of at least 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) from the Geisinger Health System. EXPOSURES/METHODS:Self-reported PPI use in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study or an outpatient PPI prescription in the Geisinger Health System replication cohort. Histamine2 (H2) receptor antagonist use was considered a negative control and active comparator. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/METHODS:Incident CKD was defined using diagnostic codes at hospital discharge or death in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, and by a sustained outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in the Geisinger Health System replication cohort. RESULTS:Among 10,482 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, the mean (SD) age was 63.0 (5.6) years, and 43.9% were male. Compared with nonusers, PPI users were more often of white race, obese, and taking antihypertensive medication. Proton pump inhibitor use was associated with incident CKD in unadjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.11-1.90); in analysis adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical variables (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.14-1.96); and in analysis with PPI ever use modeled as a time-varying variable (adjusted HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.17-1.55). The association persisted when baseline PPI users were compared directly with H2 receptor antagonist users (adjusted HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01-1.91) and with propensity score-matched nonusers (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.13-2.74). In the Geisinger Health System replication cohort, PPI use was associated with CKD in all analyses, including a time-varying new-user design (adjusted HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.20-1.28). Twice-daily PPI dosing (adjusted HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.28-1.67) was associated with a higher risk than once-daily dosing (adjusted HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:Proton pump inhibitor use is associated with a higher risk of incident CKD. Future research should evaluate whether limiting PPI use reduces the incidence of CKD.

BACKGROUND:It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. METHODS:We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population-based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS:The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63-6.63) increased gout risk in older age. CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Carotid intima-media thickness has been reported to predict kidney function decline. However, whether carotid intima-media thickness is associated with a hard kidney end point, ESRD, has not been investigated. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:We studied 13,197 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities participants at visit 1 (1987-1989) without history of cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure, at baseline and assessed whether carotid intima-media thickness measured by B-mode ultrasound is associated with ESRD risk using Cox proportional hazards models. Regarding carotid intima-media thickness parameters, we investigated the mean and maximum values of overall and segment-specific (common, bifurcation, and internal carotid arteries) measurements. RESULTS:Mean age was 54.0 (SD=5.7) years old, and there were 3373 (25.6%) blacks and 7370 (55.8%) women. During a median follow-up of 22.7 years, 433 participants developed ESRD (1.4/1000 person-years). After adjusting for shared risk factors for atherosclerosis and kidney disease, including baseline kidney function, carotid intima-media thickness was significantly associated with ESRD risk (hazard ratio [HR] between quartiles 4 and 1, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02 to 2.08 for overall mean intima-media thickness and HR between quartiles 4 and 1, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.48 for overall maximum intima-media thickness). The associations were largely consistent in demographic and clinical subgroups. When we explored segment-specific intima-media thicknesses, the associations with ESRD were most robust for bifurcation carotid (e.g., adjusted HR between quartiles 4 and 1 of mean intima-media thickness, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.13 for bifurcation; adjusted HR between quartiles 4 and 1 of mean intima-media thickness, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.97 for common; and adjusted HR between quartiles 4 and 1 of mean intima-media thickness, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.29 for internal). CONCLUSIONS:Carotid intima-media thickness was independently associated with incident ESRD in the general population, suggesting the shared etiology of atherosclerosis and ESRD.

Little is known about the frequency and patterns of hyperkalemia in clinical settings. We evaluated the association between baseline antihypertensive medications that may affect potassium levels (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, β-blockers, loop/thiazide diuretics, and potassium-sparing diuretics) and hyperkalemia, defined by potassium >5 mEq/L and >5.5 mEq/L, over a 3-year time period in 194 456 outpatients in the Geisinger Health System, as well as actions taken after an episode of hyperkalemia. The proportions of patients with 0, <2, 2 to 4, and ≥4 potassium measurements per year were 20%, 58%, 16%, and 6%. Potassium levels >5 mEq/L and >5.5 mEq/L occurred in 10.8% and 2.3% of all patients over the 3-year period; among patients with ≥4 measurements per year, corresponding values were 39.4% and 14.6%. Most cases of hyperkalemia occurred only once during follow-up. The antihypertensive medication class most strongly associated with hyperkalemia was angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. Among patients with a measurement of potassium >5.5 mEq/L, only 24% were seen by a nephrologist and 5.2% were seen by a dietician during the 3-year period. Short-term actions after a potassium measurement >5.5 mEq/L included emergency room visit (3.1% within 7 days), remeasurement of potassium (44.3% with 14 days), and change in a potassium-altering medication (26.4% within 60 days). The most common medication changes were discontinuation/dose reduction of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker or potassium-sparing diuretic, which occurred in 29.1% and 49.6% of people taking these medications, respectively. In conclusion, hyperkalemia is common. Future research may enable optimal renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use with improved management of hyperkalemia.

Mitochondrial dysfunction in kidney cells has been implicated in the pathogenesis of CKD. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number is a surrogate measure of mitochondrial function, and higher mtDNA copy number in peripheral blood has been associated with lower risk of two important risk factors for CKD progression, diabetes and microalbuminuria. We evaluated whether mtDNA copy number in peripheral blood associates with incident CKD in a population-based cohort of middle-aged adults. We estimated mtDNA copy number using 25 high-quality mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms from the Affymetrix 6.0 array. Among 9058 participants, those with higher mtDNA copy number had a lower rate of prevalent diabetes and lower C-reactive protein levels and white blood cell counts. Baseline eGFR did not differ significantly by mtDNA copy number. Over a median follow-up of 19.6 years, 1490 participants developed CKD. Higher mtDNA copy number associated with lower risk of incident CKD (highest versus lowest quartile: hazard ratio 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.75; P<0.001) after adjusting for age, sex, and race. After adjusting for additional risk factors of CKD, including prevalent diabetes, hypertension, C-reactive protein level, and white blood cell count, this association remained significant (highest versus lowest quartile: hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.87; P<0.001). In conclusion, higher mtDNA copy number associated with lower incidence of CKD independent of traditional risk factors and inflammation biomarker levels in this cohort. Further research on modifiable factors influencing mtDNA copy number may lead to improvement in the prevention and treatment of CKD.