Faculty Bibliography

AIMS/OBJECTIVE:To examine the associations of the liver enzymes alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase(AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) with diabetes risk and to determine whether associations differ by race and/or gender. We hypothesized that all liver enzymes would be associated with diabetes risk and that associations would differ by race and gender. METHODS:Prospective cohort of 7495 white and 1842 black participants without diabetes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Poisson and Cox models adjusted for demographic, socio-behavioural, and metabolic and health-related factors were used. RESULTS:During a median of 12 years of follow-up, 2182 incident cases of diabetes occurred. Higher liver enzyme levels were independently associated with diabetes risk: adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.68 (1.49-1.89), 1.16 (1.02-1.31) and 1.95 (1.70-2.24) comparing the highest with the lowest quartiles of ALT, AST, and GGT, respectively. Gamma-Glutamyl transferase was most strongly related to diabetes risk, even at levels considered within the normal range (≤ 60 U/l) in clinical practice. Adjusted incidence rates by quartiles of liver enzymes were similar by gender but higher in black versus white participants. Nonetheless, relative associations of ALT, AST, and GGT with diabetes were similar by race (P for interactions > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS:Compared with ALT and AST, GGT was more strongly associated with diabetes risk. Our findings suggest that abnormalities in liver enzymes precede the diagnosis of diabetes by many years and that individuals with elevated liver enzymes, even within the normal range as defined in clinical practice, are at high risk for diabetes.

BACKGROUND:Autonomic fluctuations are associated with the initiation and possibly maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, little is known about the relationship between orthostatic blood pressure change, a common manifestation of autonomic dysfunction, and incident AF. METHODS:We examined whether supine-to-standing changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) are associated with incident AF in 12,071 African American and white men and women aged 45-64 years, enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risks in Communities (ARIC) study. Orthostatic hypotension (OH) was defined as a supine-standing drop in SBP by ≥20 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure by ≥10 mmHg. AF cases were identified based on study scheduled 12-lead ECG, hospital discharge ICD codes, and death certificates through 2009. RESULTS:OH was seen in 603 (5%) at baseline. During an average follow-up of 18.1 years, 1438 (11.9%) study participants developed AF. Incident AF occurred more commonly among those with OH than those without, a rate of 9.3 vs. 6.3 per 1000 person years, (p<0.001). The age, gender, and race adjusted hazard ratio (95%CI) of AF among those with OH compared to those without was 1.62 (1.34, 2.14). This association was attenuated after adjustment for common AF risk factors to HR 1.40 (1.15, 1.71), a strength similar to that of diabetes or hypertension with AF in the same model. A non-linear relationship between orthostatic change in SBP and incident AF was present after multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSIONS:OH is associated with higher AF incidence. Whether interventions that decrease OH can reduce AF risk remains unknown.

BACKGROUND:New filtration markers, including β-trace protein (BTP) and β₂-microglobulin (B2M), may, similar to cystatin C, enable a stronger prediction of mortality compared to serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr). We sought to evaluate these mortality associations in a representative sample of US adults. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:6,445 adults 20 years or older from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) with mortality linkage through December 31, 2006. PREDICTORS/METHODS:Serum cystatin C, BTP, and B2M levels and eGFRcr categorized into quintiles, with the highest quintile (lowest for eGFRcr) split into tertiles (subquintiles Q5a-Q5c). OUTCOMES/RESULTS:All-cause, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Demographic- and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS:During follow-up, 2,392 deaths (cardiovascular, 1,079; coronary heart disease, 605) occurred. Levels of all 4 filtration markers were associated with mortality risk after adjusting for demographics (P trend<0.02). Adjusted for mortality risk factors, compared to the middle quintile, the highest subquintiles for cystatin C (Q5c: HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.43-2.62), BTP (Q5c: HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.56-2.94), and B2M (Q5c: HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.96-3.41) were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk, whereas the association was weaker for eGFRcr (Q5c: HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.84-2.04). Associations persisted for the novel markers and not for eGFRcr at eGFRcr ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m². Trends were similar for cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease mortality. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Single measurements of markers from long-term stored samples. CONCLUSIONS:The strong association of cystatin C level with mortality compared with serum creatinine estimates is shared by BTP and B2M. This supports the utility of alternative filtration markers beyond creatinine when improved risk prediction related to decreased GFR is needed.

Endothelial nitric oxide synthase 3 (NOS3) catalyzes the production of nitric oxide from L-arginine in endothelial cells. Obesity is a modifiable risk factor for diabetes, and obese individuals have been reported to have reduced nitric oxide availability compared to controls whose weight is in the normal range. Since homozygous carriers of the NOS3 G894T variant are predicted to have decreased enzyme activity, the association between NOS3 genotype and type 2 diabetes, and possible effect modification by body mass index (BMI) were evaluated. The prevalence of diabetes and BMI was determined at baseline in 14,374 participants 45-66 years of age from the prospective biracial population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study of the development of atherosclerosis in four communities in the United States. Individuals with a BMI ≥30 kg/m(2) were considered obese. Those subjects not meeting the case definition were the comparison groups for the 728 African American and 980 white participants with diabetes. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and field center were used to test for main genetic effects and interaction with obesity. Although the NOS3 G894T variant was not independently associated with diabetes in either African Americans or whites, significant interaction between BMI and the NOS3 polymorphism indicated that obesity was an effect modifier of diabetes risk for white individuals with the TT genotype (odds ratio (OR) for interaction = 1.65, p = 0.04). In stratified analyses, homozygosity for the NOS3 T allele in obese white participants but not in those whose BMI <30 kg/m(2) was associated with an elevated risk of diabetes (OR = 1.47, p = 0.02) when compared to the common GG genotype. These results suggest that interaction between obesity and NOS3 genotype may be a determinant of diabetes case status in whites in the ARIC cohort. Replication in other populations will be required to confirm these observations.

Parsimony is important for the interpretation of causal effect estimates of longitudinal treatments on subsequent outcomes. One method for parsimonious estimates fits marginal structural models by using inverse propensity scores as weights. This method leads to generally large variability that is uncommon in more likelihood-based approaches. A more recent method fits these models by using simulations from a fitted g-computation, but requires the modeling of high-dimensional longitudinal relations that are highly susceptible to misspecification. We propose a new method that, first, uses longitudinal propensity scores as regressors to reduce the dimension of the problem and then uses the approximate likelihood for the first estimates to fit parsimonious models. We demonstrate the methods by estimating the effect of anticoagulant therapy on survival for cancer and non-cancer patients who have inferior vena cava filters.

Studies of multiple measures of a quantitative trait can have greater precision and thus statistical power compared with single-measure studies, but this has rarely been studied in the relation to quantitative trait measurement error models in genetic association studies. Using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a quantitative measure of kidney function, as an example we constructed measurement error models of a quantitative trait with systematic and random error components. We then examined the effects on precision of the parameter estimate between genetic loci and eGFR, resulting from varying the correlation and contribution of the error components. We also compared the empirical results from three genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of kidney function in 9049 European Americans: a single measure model, a three-measure model of the same biomarker of kidney function and a six-measure model of different biomarkers of kidney function. Simulations showed that given the same amount of overall errors, inclusion of measures with less correlated systematic errors led to greater gain in precision. The empirical GWAS results confirmed that both the three- and six-measure models detected more eGFR-associated genomic loci with stronger statistical association than the single-measure model despite some heterogeneity among the measures. Multiple measures of a quantitative trait can increase the statistical power of a study without additional participant recruitment. However, careful attention must be paid to the correlation of systematic errors and inconsistent associations when different biomarkers or methods are used to measure the quantitative trait.

OBJECTIVE:There is debate regarding the clinical significance of well-established racial differences in HbA1c. We compared the associations of diabetes diagnostic categories for HbA1c and fasting glucose with clinical outcomes in black and white persons in the community. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS/METHODS:We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of participants without diabetes or cardiovascular disease from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We examined the associations of clinical categories of HbA1c (<5.7%, 5.7-6.4%, ≥6.5%) and fasting glucose (<100, 100-125, ≥126 mg/dL) with outcomes separately among 2,484 black and 8,593 white participants and tested for race interactions. RESULTS:Baseline characteristics differed significantly in blacks compared with whites, including HbA1c (5.8 vs. 5.4%; P<0.001). During 18 years of follow-up, there were trends of increased risk of kidney disease, fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, and stroke across categories of HbA1c in both blacks and whites. The adjusted hazard ratios for each outcome across categories of HbA1c were similar in blacks and whites (P for interaction>0.05) except for all-cause mortality. Patterns of association were similar, but weaker, for fasting glucose. HbA1c and fasting glucose both were more strongly associated with all-cause mortality in whites compared with blacks, largely explained by racial differences in the rate of cardiovascular deaths. CONCLUSIONS:HbA1c is a risk factor for vascular outcomes and mortality in both black and white adults. Patterns of association for HbA1c were similar to or stronger than those for fasting glucose. With respect to long-term outcomes, our findings support a similar interpretation of HbA1c in blacks and whites for diagnosis and treatment of diabetes mellitus.